STM Daily News

Better but not stellar: Pollsters faced familiar complaints, difficulties in assessing Trump-Harris race

Published

8 months ago

November 18, 2024

The Conversation

pollsters — CNN’s Magic Wall map with U.S. presidential results is seen on a mobile phone on Nov. 7, 2024. Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images

W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication

An oracle erred badly. The most impressive results were turned in by a little-known company in Brazil. A nagging problem reemerged, and some media critics turned profane in their assessments.

So it went for pollsters in the 2024 presidential election. Their collective performance, while not stellar, was improved from that of four years earlier. Overall, polls signaled a close outcome in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

That is what the election produced: a modest win for Trump.

With votes still being counted in California and a few other states more than a week after Election Day, Trump had received 50.1% of the popular vote to Harris’ 48.1%, a difference of 2 points. That margin was closer than Joe Biden’s win by 4.5 points over Trump in 2020. It was closer than Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory in 2016, closer than Barack Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012.

There were, moreover, no errors among national pollsters quite as dramatic as CNN’s estimate in 2020 that Biden led Trump by 12 points.

This time, CNN’s final national poll said the race was deadlocked – an outcome anticipated by six other pollsters, according to data compiled by RealClearPolitics.

The most striking discrepancy this year was the Marist College poll, conducted for NPR and PBS. It estimated Harris held a 4-point lead nationally at campaign’s end.

‘Oracle’ of Iowa’s big miss

In any event, a sense lingered among critics that the Trump-Harris election had resulted in yet another polling embarrassment, another entry in the catalog of survey failures in presidential elections, which is the topic of my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup.”

Comedian Jon Stewart gave harsh voice to such sentiments, saying of pollsters on his late-night program on election night, “I don’t ever want to fucking hear from you again. Ever. … You don’t know shit about shit, and I don’t care for you.”

A man in a dark blue blazer speaking and raising his left hand to make a point. — Comedian Jon Stewart doesn’t like pollsters and had some blistering comments about them on election night. Screenshot, YouTube

Megyn Kelly, a former Fox News host, also denounced pollsters, declaring on her podcast the day after the election: “Polling is a lie. They don’t know anything.”

Two factors seemed to encourage such derision – a widely discussed survey of Iowa voters released the weekend before the election and Trump’s sweep of the seven states where the outcome turned.

The Iowa poll injected shock and surprise into the campaign’s endgame, reporting that Harris had taken a 3-point lead in the state over Trump. The result was likened to a “bombshell” and its implications seemed clear: If Harris had opened a lead in a state with Iowa’s partisan profile, her prospects of winning elsewhere seemed strong, especially in the Great Lakes swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The survey was conducted for the Des Moines Register by J. Ann Selzer, a veteran Iowa-based pollster with an outstanding reputation in opinion research. In a commentary in The New York Times in mid-September, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson declared Selzer “the oracle of Iowa.” Rachel Maddow of MSNBC praised Selzer’s polls before the election for their “uncanny predictive accuracy.” Ratings released in June by data guru Nate Silver gave Selzer’s polls an A-plus grade.

But this time, Selzer’s poll missed dramatically.

Trump carried Iowa by 13 points, meaning the poll was off by 16 points – a stunning divergence for an accomplished pollster.

“Even the mighty have been humbled” by Trump’s victory, the Times of London said of Selzer’s polling failure.

Selzer said afterward she will “be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that (discrepancy) happened.”

It is possible, other pollsters suggested, that Selzer’s reliance on telephone-based surveying contributed to the polling failure. “Phone polling alone … isn’t going to reach low-propensity voters or politically disengaged nonwhite men,” Tom Lubbock and James Johnson wrote in a commentary for The Wall Street Journal.

These days, few pollsters rely exclusively on the phone to conduct election surveys; many of them have opted for hybrid approaches that combine, for example, phone, text and online sampling techniques.

Surprise sweep of swing states

Trump’s sweep of the seven vigorously contested swing states surely contributed to perceptions that polls had misfired again.

According to RealClearPolitics, Harris held slender, end-of-campaign polling leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.

Trump won them all, an outcome no pollster anticipated – except for AtlasIntel of Sao Paulo, Brazil, a firm “about which little is known,” as The New Republic noted.

AtlasIntel estimated Trump was ahead in all seven swing states by margins that hewed closely to the voting outcomes. In none of the swing states did AtlasIntel’s polling deviate from the final vote tally by more than 1.3 points, an impressive performance.

AtlasIntel did not respond to email requests I sent requesting information about its background and polling technique. The company describes itself as “a leading innovator in online polling” and says it uses “a proprietary methodology,” without revealing much about it.

Its founder and chief executive is Andrei Roman, who earned a doctorate in government at Harvard University. Roman took to X, formerly Twitter, in the election’s aftermath to post a chart that touted AtlasIntel as “the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election.”

It was a burst of pollster braggadocio reminiscent of a kind that has emerged periodically since the 1940s. That was when polling pioneer George Gallup placed two-page advertising spreads in the journalism trade publication “Editor & Publisher” to assert the accuracy of his polls in presidential elections.

Underestimating Trump’s support again

A significant question facing pollsters this year – their great known unknown – was whether modifications made to sampling techniques would allow them to avoid underestimating Trump’s support, as they had in 2016 and 2020.

Misjudging Trump’s backing is a nagging problem for pollsters. The results of the 2024 election indicate that the shortcoming persists. By margins ranging from 0.9 points to 2.7 points, polls overall understated Trump’s support in the seven swing states, for example.

Some polls misjudged Trump’s backing by even greater margins. CNN, for example, underestimated Trump’s vote by 4.3 points in North Carolina, by more than 6 points in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona.

Results that misfire in the same direction suggest that adjustments to sampling methodologies were inadequate or ineffective for pollsters in seeking to reach Trump backers of all stripes.

W. Joseph Campbell, Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.

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Related Topics:Barack Obama CNN Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Kamala Harris Polling presidential polling

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Automotive

Slate Auto’s $20K EV Truck Dream Collapses Under Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”

Slate Auto’s sub-$20K electric pickup is no more—Trump’s new bill kills the EV tax credit that made the price possible.

Published

3 days ago

July 7, 2025

Daily News Staff

Image Credit: Slate Auto

The Affordable EV Dream, Derailed

Slate Auto made waves in early 2025 by announcing an electric pickup truck with a revolutionary promise: a starting price under $20,000. With a minimalist, modular design and direct-to-consumer sales model, the company hoped to disrupt the industry by delivering a rugged, no-frills EV that everyday drivers could actually afford.

But that promise may now be broken.

In July 2025, the newly passed “Big Beautiful Bill” from President Donald Trump eliminated the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, a cornerstone of Slate’s pricing model. And as of now, Slate has quietly removed its sub-$20K price claims, signaling a dramatic shift in its market positioning.

What Was the Original Plan?

Slate Auto’s vision was simple:

Base price of the pickup: ~$25,000 Subtract $7,500 tax credit → final cost: $17,500 Optional bolt-on accessories and upgrades for customization

This formula positioned the Slate truck as a compelling solution for tradespeople, students, rural drivers, and eco-conscious buyers seeking low-cost alternatives to gas trucks.

What Changed?

The Trump administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” passed in July 2025, includes a provision that eliminates all federal EV tax credits starting September 30, 2025. That means:

No more $7,500 off at the point of sale Budget EVs like Slate’s are left to float—or sink—on their true retail pricing EV industry analysts warn of broader slowdowns in adoption

For Slate, it means their truck is no longer “America’s first under-$20K EV pickup.” Instead, the expected price now ranges from $25,000 to $27,500, and could rise to $35K with add-ons—putting it closer to competitors like the Ford Maverick Hybrid and Chevy Equinox EV.

The Fallout

This change hits hard for Slate, which built its brand on simplicity and accessibility. Without the tax credit:

Entry-level customers are priced out Preorder holders may cancel based on unexpected price hikes Market differentiation is weakened, as affordability was Slate’s primary value proposition

Meanwhile, critics argue the rollback of tax credits slows EV adoption at a critical time in the climate fight. Environmental groups and consumer advocates are already pushing back, saying the bill disproportionately hurts low- and middle-income Americans who were just beginning to consider electric vehicles.

What’s Next for Slate?

Slate says it still plans to begin production in late 2026, but without the EV credit, it must rework its pricing strategy and value offering. Possibilities include:

Offering fewer standard features Creating stripped-down fleet or worksite models Lobbying for state-level incentives to offset federal losses

Whether these changes will be enough to keep Slate competitive remains to be seen.

Final Thoughts

The electric vehicle space is undergoing seismic shifts, and the demise of the federal EV tax credit is likely to create ripple effects across the industry. For Slate Auto, the dream of a sub-$20K EV pickup may be over—but if they can pivot wisely, the company could still carve out a niche in the fast-evolving electric truck market.

Visit Slate Auto: https://www.slate.auto/en

Dive into “The Knowledge,” where curiosity meets clarity. This playlist, in collaboration with STMDailyNews.com, is designed for viewers who value historical accuracy and insightful learning. Our short videos, ranging from 30 seconds to a minute and a half, make complex subjects easy to grasp in no time. Covering everything from historical events to contemporary processes and entertainment, “The Knowledge” bridges the past with the present. In a world where information is abundant yet often misused, our series aims to guide you through the noise, preserving vital knowledge and truths that shape our lives today. Perfect for curious minds eager to discover the ‘why’ and ‘how’ of everything around us. Subscribe and join in as we explore the facts that matter. https://stmdailynews.com/the-knowledge/

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astronomy

A New Interstellar Visitor: Meet 3I/ATLAS, the Third Object from Beyond Our Solar System

Astronomers have discovered 3I/ATLAS, only the third known interstellar object to enter our solar system—here’s what we know so far.

Published

3 days ago

July 6, 2025

Rod Washington

A Cosmic Rarity: Another Visitor from the Stars

In an exciting development for astronomers and space enthusiasts alike, scientists have confirmed the discovery of a new interstellar object—officially named 3I/ATLAS—currently passing through our solar system. This marks only the third known object from another star system to visit us, following the mysterious ‘Oumuamua in 2017 and the icy 2I/Borisov in 2019.

The object was first detected on July 1, 2025, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Initially cataloged as A11pl3Z, further analysis confirmed that its speed and orbital trajectory are hyperbolic—meaning it’s not bound by the Sun’s gravity and is merely passing through, just like its rare predecessors.

What Do We Know About 3I/ATLAS?

Origin: The object’s interstellar origin is confirmed by its high velocity—traveling at around 60 km/s (37 miles per second)—and its hyperbolic orbit. Composition: Unlike ‘Oumuamua, which sparked debate due to its lack of a visible tail, 3I/ATLAS appears to be a comet, exhibiting a faint coma and short dust tail. Size: The comet’s nucleus could be as large as 10 kilometers (6 miles) across, though dust and debris around it may be inflating those estimates. Distance from Earth: It will come no closer than 150 to 240 million miles, posing no threat to our planet. Visibility: It’s currently about 420 million miles from the Sun and will reach its closest approach (perihelion) around October 29–30, 2025. After briefly disappearing behind the Sun, it may reappear for additional observation in December.

@stmblog
🚨 A comet from another star system is flying through our solar system right now! 🌠 Meet 3I/ATLAS — only the 3rd interstellar object ever seen! 👽✨ SpaceTok 3IATLAS Oumuamua Interstellar ScienceTok AstronomyFacts DidYouKnow CosmicVisitor #STMDailyNews https://stmdailynews.com/a-new-interstell…our-solar-system/ ♬ original sound – STMDailyNews – STMDailyNews

Why Interstellar Objects Matter

Interstellar objects are not just celestial curiosities—they are time capsules carrying information about the environments where they formed, likely in entirely different star systems. Their compositions, movements, and structures give scientists rare glimpses into the diversity of planetary building blocks in our galaxy.

‘Oumuamua puzzled scientists with its unusual shape and lack of comet-like activity, while 2I/Borisov looked more like a traditional comet. Now, 3I/ATLAS gives us another chance to compare and contrast these space travelers and deepen our understanding of how solar systems form and evolve.

Eyes on the Sky

Though faint and fast-moving, 3I/ATLAS is already being tracked by observatories around the world. With modern telescopes and tools that weren’t available even a decade ago, astronomers are optimistic about gathering unprecedented data on this rare visitor.

Whether you’re a seasoned stargazer or a casual cosmic tourist, it’s thrilling to know that something from another solar system is soaring through our cosmic backyard—reminding us of the vastness and wonder of the universe.

Sources:

Reuters: Newly Spotted Comet is Third Interstellar Object The Guardian: Mystery Object Likely from Beyond Our Solar System AP News: Astronomers Track Third Interstellar Visitor

🧠 Forgotten Genius Fridays

A Short-Form Series from The Knowledge by STM Daily News

Every Friday, STM Daily News shines a light on brilliant minds history overlooked.

Forgotten Genius Fridays is a weekly collection of short videos and articles dedicated to inventors, innovators, scientists, and creators whose impact changed the world—but whose names were often left out of the textbooks.

From life-saving inventions and cultural breakthroughs to game-changing ideas buried by bias, our series digs up the truth behind the minds that mattered.

Each episode of The Knowledge runs 30–90 seconds, designed for curious minds on the go—perfect for YouTube Shorts, TikTok, Reels, and quick reads.

Because remembering these stories isn’t just about the past—it’s about restoring credit where it’s long overdue.

🔔 New episodes every Friday

📺 Watch now at: stmdailynews.com/the-knowledge

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Blog

Exploring the Mysteries: Celebrating World UFO Day

Published

1 week ago

July 2, 2025

Rod Washington

UFO sightings

Every year, on July 2nd, enthusiasts, skeptics, and the curious alike come together to observe World UFO Day. This unique celebration is an invitation to lift our eyes to the skies and ponder the vastness of the universe and the mysteries it holds. While Hollywood has given us thrilling depictions of UFO encounters, World UFO Day encourages us to delve into the real questions: Are we alone in the cosmos? What secrets lie beyond our planetary boundaries?

The Origins of World UFO Day

July 2nd was chosen to commemorate the infamous 1947 Roswell incident, where an unidentified flying object reportedly crashed in Roswell, New Mexico. Though officially explained as a weather balloon, the event sparked countless theories and remains a cornerstone of UFO lore. This day aims to raise public awareness about UFOs and advocate for the disclosure of government files to better understand these phenomena.

Why Celebrate UFO Day?

Awareness and Education: UFO Day encourages public interest in a topic that spans history and science. It’s a chance to learn about the different types of UFO sightings and their historical significance.
Promoting Scientific Inquiry: Encouraging scientific exploration is crucial. Discussions around UFOs can inspire interest in astronomy, astrophysics, and other scientific fields.
Fostering Community: People from diverse backgrounds join discussions, share experiences, and even hold sky-watching events. It’s a day to connect with others who are intrigued by the mysteries of the universe.

How to Get Involved

Host a Sky-Watching Event: Gather friends and family and spend the night sky-watching. You might be surprised at what you can see!
Educate Yourself: Dive into documentaries, books, and articles about UFOs. Understanding the science and history can offer new perspectives.
Join Online Communities: Participate in forums or online groups dedicated to UFO discussions. Sharing experiences and theories can lead to fascinating conversations.

@stmblog
World UFO Day, observed on July 2nd, invites us to explore UFO sightings, encouraging curiosity and scientific inquiry into the universe’s mysteries. https://stmdailynews.com worldufoday UFOsightings #CosmicCuriosity ♬ original sound – STMDailyNews – STMDailyNews

A Day of Curiosity and Exploration

World UFO Day is more than just pondering the existence of extraterrestrial life; it’s a celebration of curiosity and the never-ending quest for knowledge. So, whether you’re a believer or a skeptic, take a moment on July 2nd to look up and consider the endless possibilities of our universe. Who knows what you might discover?