Sun Activity Update: Flares on the Rise and CME Arrival Imminent

The sun has been displaying increased activity in recent days, with a surge in flare production and the imminent arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME). These events have captured the attention of skywatchers and scientists alike, as they hold the promise of spectacular auroral displays and provide valuable insights into the behavior of our nearest star. In this blog post, we will delve into the details of the sun’s recent activity on November 11, 2023, and explore what we can expect in the coming hours.

Flare Activity and Explosions:
Over the past 24 hours, the sun has experienced a notable increase in flare production, particularly in its western hemisphere. A total of 20 C flares were recorded during this period, a significant jump from the previous days’ average of approximately five flares per day. The northwestern region, in particular, showcased two notable events. Firstly, a fiery filament explosion occurred near sunspot AR3481 at 7 UTC on November 11, resulting in the ejection of material into space. Prior to this, at 3:59 UTC, active region AR3483 unleashed the largest flare of the day, a C7.2 flare. This region has been responsible for seven C-class flares, including the aforementioned event.

Incoming CME and Geomagnetic Activity:
Following the full halo event that transpired yesterday, propelling a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, we anticipate its arrival on Earth later today and possibly extending into early Sunday. As a result, there is an expected G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm, which could fuel awe-inspiring auroras. The geomagnetic field is currently tranquil, but this is likely to change as the CME interacts with our planet’s magnetic field. Aurora enthusiasts are advised to keep an eye on the sky and share their captivating photos.

Forecast for the Next 24 Hours:
Looking ahead, the forecast for the next 24 hours indicates an 80% chance of C flares, a 15% chance of M flares, and a 1% chance of X flares. These predictions highlight the continued potential for energetic solar activity, which could further contribute to the captivating celestial displays.

Analysis of Potential Earth-bound Components:
Experts are currently analyzing a couple of solar eruptions to determine if any of their components are heading towards Earth. The first eruption, near AR3484 at 19 UTC on November 10, and the second, involving a filament in the northwest that lifted plasma at around 22 UTC on November 10, are currently under scrutiny. However, further analysis using coronagraph data is required to ascertain the potential Earthward trajectory of these events.

The sun’s recent surge in flare activity on November 11, 2023, has provided astronomers and skywatchers with an exciting spectacle. With the arrival of a CME expected in the coming hours, the stage is set for a possible geomagnetic storm and dazzling auroras. As we continue to witness these celestial phenomena, we gain valuable insights into the behavior of the sun and its profound impact on our planet. So, keep your eyes to the sky, capture the beauty of the auroras, and join us in marveling at the wonders of our dynamic star, the sun.

Check out this article on EarthSky. https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/