Anthony J. Marchese, Colorado State University and Dan Zimmerle, Colorado State University

Natural gas is displacing coal, which could help fight climate change because burning it produces fewer carbon emissions. But producing and transporting natural gas releases methane, a greenhouse gas that also contributes to climate change. How big is the methane problem?

For the past five years, our research teams at Colorado State University have made thousands of methane emissions measurements at more than 700 separate facilities in the production, gathering, processing, transmission and storage segments of the natural gas supply chain.

This experience has given us a unique perspective regarding the major sources of methane emissions from natural gas and the challenges the industry faces in terms of detecting and reducing, if not eliminating, them.

Our work, along with numerous other research projects, was recently folded into a new study published in the journal Science. This comprehensive snapshot suggests that methane emissions from oil and gas operations are much higher than current EPA estimates.

What’s wrong with methane

One way to quantify the magnitude of the methane leakage is to divide the amount of methane emitted each year by the total amount of methane pumped out of the ground each year from natural gas and oil wells. The EPA currently estimates this methane leak rate to be 1.4 percent. That is, for every cubic foot of natural gas drawn from underground reservoirs, 1.4 percent of it is lost into the atmosphere.

This study synthesized the results from a five-year series of 16 studies coordinated by environmental advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), which involved more than 140 researchers from over 40 institutions and 50 natural gas companies.

The effort brought together scholars based at universities, think tanks and the industry itself to make the most accurate estimate possible of the total amount of methane emitted from all U.S. oil and gas operations. It integrated data from a multitude of recent studies with measurements made on the ground and from the air.

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All told, based on the results of the new study, the U.S. oil and gas industry is leaking 13 million metric tons of methane each year, which means the methane leak rate is 2.3 percent. This 60 percent difference between our new estimate and the EPA’s current one can have profound climate consequences.

Methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas, with more than 80 times the climate warming impact of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it is released.

An earlier EDF study showed that a methane leak rate of greater than 3 percent would result in no immediate climate benefits from retiring coal-fired power plants in favor of natural gas power plants.

That means even with a 2.3 percent leakage rate, the growing share of U.S. electricity powered by natural gas is doing something to slow the pace of climate change. However, these climate benefits could be far greater.

Also, at a methane leakage rate of 2.3 percent, many other uses of natural gas besides generating electricity are conclusively detrimental for the climate. For example, EDF found that replacing the diesel used in most trucks or the gasoline consumed by most cars with natural gas would require a leakage rate of less than 1.4 percent before there would be any immediate climate benefit.

What’s more, some scientists believe that the leakage rate could be even higher than this new estimate.

What causes these leaks

Perhaps you’ve never contemplated the long journey that natural gas travels before you can ignite the burners on the gas stove in your kitchen.

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But on top of the 500,000 natural gas wells operating in the U.S. today, there are 2 million miles of pipes and millions of valves, fittings, tanks, compressors and other components operating 24 hours per day, seven days a week to deliver natural gas to your home.

That natural gas that you burn when you whip up a batch of pancakes may have traveled 1,000 miles or more as it wended through this complicated network. Along the way, there were ample opportunities for some of it to leak out into the atmosphere.

Natural gas leaks can be accidental, caused by malfunctioning equipment, but a lot of natural gas is also released intentionally to perform process operations such as opening and closing valves. In addition, the tens of thousands of compressors that increase the pressure and pump the gas along through the network are powered by engines that burn natural gas and their exhaust contains some unburned natural gas.

Since the natural gas delivered to your home is 85 to 95 percent methane, natural gas leaks are predominantly methane. While methane poses the greatest threat to the climate because of its greenhouse gas potency, natural gas contains other hydrocarbons that can degrade regional air quality and are bad for human health.

Inventory tallies vs. aircraft surveillance

The EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory is done in a way experts like us call a “bottom-up” approach. It entails tallying up all of the nation’s natural gas equipment – from household gas meters to wellpads – and estimating an annualized average emission rate for every category and adding it all up.

There are two challenges to this approach. First, there are no accurate equipment records for many of these categories. Second, when components operate improperly or fail, emissions balloon, making it hard to develop an accurate and meaningful annualized emission rate for each source.

“Top-down” approaches, typically requiring aircraft, are the alternative. They measure methane concentrations upwind and downwind of large geographic areas. But this approach has its own shortcomings.

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First, it captures all methane emissions, rather than just the emissions tied to natural gas operations – including the methane from landfills, cows and even the leaves rotting in your backyard. Second, these one-time snapshots may get distorted depending on what’s going on while planes fly around capturing methane data.

Historically, top-down approaches estimate emissions that are about twice bottom-up estimates. Some regional top-down methane leak rate estimates have been as high as 8 percent while some bottom-up estimates have been as low as 1 percent.

More recent work, including the Science study, have performed coordinated campaigns in which the on-the-ground and aircraft measurements are made concurrently, while carefully modeling emission events.

Helpful gadgets and sound policy

On a sunny morning in October 2013, our research team pulled up to a natural gas gathering compressor station in Texas. Using an US$80,000 infrared camera, we immediately located an extraordinarily large leak of colorless, odorless methane that was invisible to the operator who quickly isolated and fixed the problem.

We then witnessed the methane emissions decline tenfold – the facility leak rate fell from 9.8 percent to 0.7 percent before our eyes.

It is not economically feasible, of course, to equip all natural gas workers with $80,000 cameras, or to hire the drivers required to monitor every wellpad on a daily basis when there are 40,000 oil and gas wells in Weld County, Colorado, alone.

But new technologies can make a difference. Our team at Colorado State University is working with the Department of Energy to evaluate gadgetry that will rapidly detect methane emissions. Some of these devices can be deployed today, including inexpensive sensors that can be monitored remotely.

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Technology alone won’t solve the problem, however. We believe that slashing the nation’s methane leak rate will require a collaborative effort between industry and government. And based on our experience in Colorado, which has developed some of the nation’s strictest methane emissions regulations, we find that best practices become standard practices with strong regulations.

We believe that the Trump administration’s efforts to roll back regulations, without regard to whether they are working or not, will not only have profound climate impacts. They will also jeopardize the health and safety of all Americans while undercutting efforts by the natural gas industry to cut back on the pollution it produces.

Anthony J. Marchese, Associate Dean for Academic and Student Affairs, Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering; Director, Engines and Energy Conversion Laboratory; Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado State University and Dan Zimmerle, Senior Research Associate and Director of METEC, Colorado State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Min Joo Lee, Indiana University

South Korea finds itself embroiled in an all-out gender war – and it keeps getting worse.

The animosity between Korean men and women has reached a point where some women are outright refusing to date, marry and have kids with men – a phenomenon known as the 4B movement.

As a Korean feminist scholar living in the U.S., I’ve followed this gender war from afar as I conducted research on contemporary Korean gender politics.

However, I also became embroiled in it myself after my research on Korean masculinity was published by CNN.

The article described foreign women who traveled to Korea after becoming enamored of the idea of dating Korean men from watching Korean television dramas. I pointed out that since the tourists’ fantasies were based on fictional characters, some of them ended up disappointed with the Korean men they dated in real life.

The article was about racial politics and the masculine ideals. But some Korean readers thought that I was simply criticizing Korean men for not being romantic and handsome enough. One enraged Korean man commented that I was an “ugly feminist.”

But this was tame in comparison to what women living in South Korea have endured in recent years.

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Extreme misogyny and a feminist backlash

Over the past couple of decades, there have been flash points in this gender war.

In 2010, Ilbe, a right-wing website that traffics in misogyny, started attracting users who peppered the forums with vulgar posts about women.

Then in 2015, an online extremist feminist group named Megalia arose. Its goal was to fight back by demeaning Korean men in ways that mirrored the rhetoric on sites like Ilbe.

A year later, a man who had professed his hatred of women murdered a random woman in a public bathroom near a Seoul subway station. He was eventually sentenced to decades in prison, but the lines were quickly drawn. On one side were feminists, who saw misogyny as the underlying motive. On the other side were men who claimed that it was merely the isolated actions of a mentally ill man. The two groups violently clashed during competing protests at the site of the murder.

A backdrop of digital sex crimes

However, none of these events have elicited as much public controversy as the steep rise in digital sex crimes. These are newer forms of sexual violence facilitated by technology: revenge porn; upskirting, which refers to surreptitiously snapping photos under women’s skirts in public; and the use of hidden cameras to film women having sex or undressing.

In 2018, there were 2,289 reported cases of digital sex crimes; in 2021, the number snowballed to 10,353.

In 2019, there were two major incidents that involved digital sex crimes.

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In one, a number of male K-pop stars were indicted for filming and circulating videos of women in group chatrooms without their consent.

A few months later, Koreans were shocked to learn about what became known as the “Nth Room Incident,” during which hundreds of perpetrators – mostly men – committed digital sex crimes on dozens of women and minors.

They tended to target poorer women – sex workers, or women who wanted to make a few bucks by sharing anonymous nude photos of themselves. The perpetrators either hacked into their social media accounts or approached these women and offered them money, but asked for their personal information so they could transmit the funds. Once they obtained this information, they blackmailed the women by threatening to reveal their sex work and their nudes to their friends and family.

Since sex work and posting nude images of yourself online are illegal in Korea, the women, fearing arrest or being ostracized by friends and family, complied with the perpetrators’ demands to send even more compromising images of themselves. The men would then swap these images in chatrooms.

And yet a 2019 survey conducted by the Korean government found that large swaths of the population blamed women for these sex crimes: 52% said that they believed sexual violence occurs because women wear revealing clothes, while 37% thought if women experienced sexual assault while drunk, they are partly to blame for their victimization.

In other words, a significant percentage of the Korean population believes that female sexuality is the problem – not the sexual violence.

Government policy lays the groundwork

Digital sex crimes are too widespread to lay the blame at the feet of a handful of bad actors.

To me, part of the problem stems from the long history of “gendered citizenship.”

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Korean feminist scholar Seungsook Moon has written about the ways in which the government created one track for men and another for women as the country sought to modernize in the second half of the 20th century:

“Men were mobilized for mandatory military service and then, as conscripts, utilized as workers and researchers in the industrializing economy. Women were consigned to lesser factory jobs, and their roles as members of the modern nation were defined largely in terms of biological reproduction and household management.”

Although these policies are no longer officially carried out, the underlying attitudes about gender roles remain embedded in Korean life and culture. Women who veer from being mothers and housewives expose themselves to public and private backlash.

The government has created gender quotas in certain industries to try to unravel this system of gendered citizenship.

For instance, some government jobs have minimum gender quotas for new hires, and the government encourages the private sector to implement similar policies. In historically male-dominant industries, such as construction, there are quotas for female hires, while in historically female-dominant industries, such as education, there are male quotas.

In some ways, this has only made things worse. Each gender feels as if the other is receiving special treatment due to these affirmative action policies. Resentment festers.

‘The generation that has given up’

Today, the sense of competition between young men and women is exacerbated by the soaring cost of living and rampant unemployment.

Called the “N-Po Generation,” which roughly translates as “the generation that has given up,” many young South Koreans don’t think they can achieve certain milestones that previous generations took for granted: marriage, having kids, finding a job, owning a home and even friendships.

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Although all genders find themselves discouraged, the act of “giving up” has caused more problems for women. Men see women who forgo marriage and having kids as selfish. And when they then try to compete against men for jobs, some men become incensed.

Many of the men who have become radicalized commit digital sex crimes to take revenge on women who, in their view, have abandoned their duties.

Ultimately, the competitive dynamic created by the Korean government’s embrace of gendered citizenship has stoked the virulent gender war between Korean men and women, with digital sex crimes used as ammunition.

The 4B movement, whereby Korean women forego heterosexual dating, marriage, and childbirth, represents a radical escalation of the gender war by seeking to create an online and offline world devoid of men. Rather than engaging in altercations, these women are refusing to interact with men, period.

Digital sex crimes are a global problem

To be sure, digital sex crimes are not unique to Korea.

When I teach my college class on digital sex crimes in the U.S., I’m surprised by how many of my students admit that they’ve been victims of digital sex crimes, or knew of it happening at their high schools. And at the National Women’s Studies Association’s annual conference in 2022, I watched feminist activists and scholars from all over the world present their findings about digital sex crimes back home.

Since each country has its own cultural context for the rise in digital sex crimes, there isn’t a single solution to solve the problems. But in South Korea, continuing to unravel the system of gendered citizenship could be part of the solution.

Min Joo Lee, Postdoctoral Fellow, Indiana University

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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Sara Harmouch, American University

The deadly Jan. 1, 2025, attack in New Orleans serves as a reminder of the persistent threat to the U.S. from individuals inspired by extremist Islamist groups.

While the investigation is still ongoing, some details about the suspect have been released. Authorities say Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a U.S. Army veteran, was behind the assault in which a truck was driven into a dense crowd in New Orleans’ French Quarter a few hours after midnight, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more. Jabbar, who died in a shoot-out with police, had pledged loyalty to the Islamic State group in online videos posted on Dec. 31, according to the FBI.

It represents the first major assault on an American city by an individual purportedly influenced by the Islamic State group, or one of its affiliates, since a 2017 truck assault in New York City that killed eight.

The New Orleans attack, like that earlier incident, underscores an important point: While the Islamic State group’s territorial caliphate – the area in Syria and Iraq in which it assumed both political and religious authority and sought to enforce its interpretation of Islamic law – has been dismantled, the group’s ability to inspire acts of terror on U.S. soil through online propaganda and ideological influence remains alarmingly potent.

As a terrorism expert and a scholar specializing in radical Islamist militant groups, I believe the case of Jabbar – an American soldier who was radicalized in the U.S. – echoes similar lone wolf attacks in the West over the past decade.

With lost territory in the Middle East, the Islamic State group has sought to exploit personal grievances, mental health struggles and ideological vulnerabilities, transforming isolated individuals in the West into deadly instruments of violence.

An attack inspired by the Islamic State

The New Year’s Day attack took place in New Orleans’ famous French Quarter. At about 3:15 a.m., Jabbar plowed his truck into a dense crowd along the popular Bourbon Street.

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In the immediate aftermath, investigators discovered a black banner in his vehicle – the flag used by many Islamist militant groups, including the Islamic State.

While the Islamic State has not yet officially claimed the attack on any of its social media platforms, subsequent reviews of Jabbar’s online activity revealed videos posted just hours before the incident, in which he pledged allegiance to the group. On Jan. 2, Christopher Raia of the FBI’s counterterrorism division said Jabbar was “100% inspired by ISIS,” using an alternative name for the group.

Jabbar’s background adds complexity to the narrative. A 42-year-old veteran, he had no prior known links to extremist networks, according to the FBI, underscoring the challenge posed by self-radicalized individuals who operate outside the scope of traditional terrorist cells.

At this early stage of the investigation, it appears the attack was planned independently, driven by an ideological alignment with the Islamic State group rather than at the direction of any of its leaders. This highlights the decentralized and unpredictable nature of the current terrorist threat landscape.

The growing threat of lone actor attacks

At the height of its power in 2014-2015, the Islamic State group controlled significant territory across Syria and Iraq, establishing a self-declared caliphate. While this physical caliphate was dismantled by 2019, following sustained efforts by the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State, the group continues to operate, conduct and inspire attacks.

Lone wolf attacks, inspired by Islamic State group propaganda but lacking direct operational support, have become the hallmark of the post-caliphate era.

By inspiring individuals to carry out attacks independently, the Islamic State group aims to create an atmosphere of fear and instability, demonstrating its global influence despite lacking a physical caliphate.

It has actively sought to radicalize and mobilize individuals in the U.S. through digital platforms, spreading violent narratives and offering tactical guidance to potential attackers.

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This strategy allows the group to maintain relevance and project strength despite its physical losses in the Middle East.

The New Orleans incident follows a pattern seen in previous attacks in the West — such as the 2016 Nice truck attack in France, the 2016 Berlin Christmas market attack and the 2017 London Bridge attack. In each case, individuals were motivated by the Islamic State group’s call to action, using readily available means – vehicles, knives or firearms – to inflict mass casualties.

This model of terrorism is not only low cost but also difficult for intelligence agencies to intercept, as it often lacks the logistical trail associated with larger, coordinated plots.

Ideological reach and online propaganda

A critical component of the Islamic State group’s continued influence is its sophisticated use of online platforms to spread propaganda.

Even after significant efforts by social media companies to dismantle extremist content, the Islamic State group, al-Qaida and their affiliates have adapted by migrating to encrypted messaging services, dark web forums and niche platforms.

These digital spaces enable extremist groups to distribute radical content, call for violence and foster a sense of global community among supporters.

Jabbar’s apparent radicalization is, I believe, likely to have been driven by such online materials – more will be known when the FBI is through investigating the many phones and laptops agents retrieved after the attack.

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Such online propaganda frequently blends religious rhetoric with narratives of personal empowerment and martyrdom. The psychological appeal of Islamic State group propaganda lies in its ability to offer disenfranchised individuals a sense of purpose, framing violence as a form of spiritual fulfillment and resistance against perceived oppression.

The case of Jabbar also raises broader questions about domestic radicalization within the United States.

Individuals like Jabbar – who are not part of any terrorist cell and seemingly have no prior known links to extremism – are often able to operate undetected until they commit acts of violence.

Islamist militant groups’ Western strategy

The Islamic State group’s broader strategy in inspiring lone actor attacks extends beyond mere acts of violence.

By inciting terror in Western nations, the group aims to polarize societies, foster anti-Muslim sentiment and provoke overreactions from governments – conditions that can fuel further radicalization and recruitment.

This cycle of violence and social division serves not just the Islamic State group, but other Islamist militant groups’ long-term objective of destabilizing the West and reinforcing its narrative of a civilizational clash between Islam and the West.

Attacks such as that in New Orleans serve as powerful propaganda tools, demonstrating that the Islamic State group’s ideology remains alive despite its territorial losses. Each successful attack amplifies the perception of the Islamic State group’s resolve, bolstering the morale of supporters and attracting new recruits.

The New Orleans attack is a sobering reminder that the influence of extremist Islamist groups extends far beyond the borders of the Middle East. As the Islamic State group and other radical militant groups evolve and adapt, the threat of lone wolf attacks looms over the U.S. and other nations.

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Sara Harmouch, Ph.D. candidate in Public Affairs, American University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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