Climate models reveal how human activity may be locking the Southwest into permanent drought
Pedro DiNezio, University of Colorado Boulder and Timothy Shanahan, The University of Texas at Austin A new wave of climate research is sounding a stark warning: Human activity may be driving drought more intensely – and more directly – than previously understood. The southwestern United States has been in a historic megadrought for much of the past two decades, with its reservoirs including lakes Mead and Powell dipping to record lows and legal disputes erupting over rights to use water from the Colorado River. This drought has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a climate pattern that swings between wet and dry phases every few decades. Since a phase change in the early 2000s, the region has endured a dry spell of epic proportions. The PDO was thought to be a natural phenomenon, governed by unpredictable natural ocean and atmosphere fluctuations. But new research published in the journal Nature suggests that’s no longer the case. Working with hundreds of climate model simulations, our team of atmosphere, earth and ocean scientists found that the PDO is now being strongly influenced by human factors and has been since the 1950s. It should have oscillated to a wetter phase by now, but instead it has been stuck. Our results suggest that drought could become the new normal for the region unless human-driven warming is halted.
The science of a drying world
For decades, scientists have relied on a basic physical principle to predict rainfall trends: Warmer air holds more moisture. In a warming world, this means wet areas are likely to get wetter, while dry regions become drier. In dry areas, as temperatures rise, more moisture is pulled from soils and transported away from these arid regions, intensifying droughts. While most climate models simulate this general pattern, they often underestimate its full extent, particularly over land areas.Arizona Game and Fish Department workers pump water into a wildlife water catchment south of Tucson in July 2023. In normal years, the catchment receives enough rainwater, but years of drought have changed that.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images Yet countries are already experiencing drought emerging as one of the most immediate and severe consequences of climate change. Understanding what’s ahead is essential, to know how long these droughts will last and because severe droughts can have sweeping affects on ecosystems, economies and global food security.
Human fingerprints on megadroughts
Simulating rainfall is one of the greatest challenges in climate science. It depends on a complex interplay between large-scale wind patterns and small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Until recently, climate models have not offered a clear picture of how rainfall patterns are likely to change in the near future as greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants and industries continue to heat up the planet. The models can diverge sharply in where, when and how precipitation will change. Even forecasts that average the results of several models differ when it comes to changes in rainfall patterns. The techniques we deployed are helping to sharpen that picture for North America and across the tropics. We looked back at the pattern of PDO phase changes over the past century using an exceptionally large ensemble of climate simulations. The massive number of simulations, more than 500, allowed us to isolate the human influences. This showed that the shifts in the PDO were driven by an interplay of increasing warming from greenhouse gas emissions and cooling from sun-blocking particles called aerosols that are associated with industrial pollution. From the 1950s through the 1980s, we found that increasing aerosol emissions from rapid industrialization following World War II drove a positive trend in the PDO, making the Southwest rainier and less parched. After the 1980s, we found that the combination of a sharp rise in greenhouse gas emissions from industries, power plants and vehicles and a reduction in aerosols as countries cleaned up their air pollution shifted the PDO into the negative, drought-generating trend that continues today. This finding represents a paradigm shift in our scientific understanding of the PDO and a warning for the future. The current negative phase can no longer be seen as just a roll of the climate dice – it has been loaded by humans. Our conclusion that global warming can drive the PDO into its negative, drought-inducing phase is also supported by geological records of past megadroughts. Around 6,000 years ago, during a period of high temperatures, evidence shows the emergence of a similar temperature pattern in the North Pacific and widespread drought across the Southwest.
Tropical drought risks underestimated
The past is also providing clues to future rainfall changes in the tropics and the risk of droughts in locations such as the Amazon. One particularly instructive example comes from approximately 17,000 years ago. Geological evidence shows that there was a period of widespread rainfall shifts across the tropics coinciding with a major slowdown of ocean currents in the Atlantic. These ocean currents, which play a crucial role in regulating global climate, naturally weakened or partially collapsed then, and they are expected to slow further this century at the current pace of global warming. A recent study of that period, using computer models to analyze geologic evidence of earth’s climate history, found much stronger drying in the Amazon basin than previously understood. It also shows similar patterns of aridification in Central America, West Africa and Indonesia. The results suggest that rainfall could decline precipitously again. Even a modest slowdown of a major Atlantic Ocean current could dry out rainforests, threaten vulnerable ecosystems and upend livelihoods across the tropics.
What comes next
Drought is a growing problem, increasingly driven by human influence. Confronting it will require rethinking water management, agricultural policy and adaptation strategies. Doing that well depends on predicting drought with far greater confidence. Climate research shows that better predictions are possible by using computer models in new ways and rigorously validating their performance against evidence from past climate shifts. The picture that emerges is sobering, revealing a much higher risk of drought across the world. Pedro DiNezio, Associate Professor of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder and Timothy Shanahan, Associate Professor of Geological Science, The University of Texas at Austin This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Moss Landing Battery Fire Fallout: Study Finds Toxic Metals Captured in Nearby Wetlands
After the January 2025 Moss Landing battery storage fire, researchers found nickel, manganese and cobalt particles raining onto nearby wetlands. A new study shows how toxic metals settled, spread with tides and rain, and may bioaccumulate through Elkhorn Slough’s food web—raising fresh questions about battery storage safety.
A battery energy storage facility that was built inside an old power plant burned from Jan. 16-18, 2025. Mike Takaki
Moss Landing Battery Fire Fallout: Study Finds Toxic Metals Captured in Nearby Wetlands
Ivano W. Aiello, San José State University When fire broke out at the world’s largest battery energy storage facility in January 2025, its thick smoke blanketed surrounding wetlands, farms and nearby communities on the central California coast. Highways closed, residents evacuated and firefighters could do little but watch as debris and ash rained down. People living in the area reported headaches and respiratory problems, and some pets and livestock fell ill. Two days later, officials announced that the air quality met federal safety standards. But the initial all-clear decision missed something important – heavy metal fallout on the ground.A chunk of charred battery debris found near bird tracks in the mud, with a putty knife to show the size. The surrounding marshes are popular stopovers for migrating seabirds. Scientists found a thin layer of much smaller debris across the wetlands.Ivano Aiello, et al, 2025 When battery energy storage facilities burn, the makeup of the chemical fallout can be a mystery for surrounding communities. Yet, these batteries often contain metals that are toxic to humans and wildlife. The smoke plume from the fire in Vistra’s battery energy storage facility at Moss Landing released not just hazardous gases such as hydrogen fluoride but also soot and charred fragments of burned batteries that landed for miles around. I am a marine geologist who has been tracking soil changes in marshes adjacent to the Vistra facility for over a decade as part of a wetland-restoration project. In a new study published in the journal Scientific Reports, my colleagues and I were able to show through detailed before-and-after samples from the marshes what was in the battery fire’s debris and what happened to the heavy metals. The batteries’ metal fragments, often too tiny to see with the naked eye, didn’t disappear. They continue to be remobilized in the environment today.The Vistra battery energy storage facility – the large gray building in the lower left, near Monterey Bay – is surrounded by farmland and marshes. The smoke plume from the fire rained ash on the area and reached four counties.Google Earth, with data from Google, Airbus, MBARI, CSUMB, CC BY
What’s inside the batteries
Moss Landing, at the edge of Monterey Bay, has long been shaped by industry – a mix of power generation and intensive agriculture on the edge of a delicate coastal ecosystem. The Vistra battery storage facility rose on the site of an old Duke Energy and PG&E gas power plant, which was once filled with turbines and oil tanks. When Vistra announced it was converting the site into the world’s largest lithium-ion battery facility, the plan was hailed as a clean energy milestone. Phase 1 alone housed batteries with 300 megawatts of capacity, enough to power about 225,000 homes for four hours. The energy in rechargeable batteries comes from the flow of electrons released by lithium atoms in the anode moving toward the cathode. In the type of batteries at the Moss Landing facility, the cathode was rich in three metals: nickel, manganese and cobalt. These batteries are prized for their high energy density and relatively low cost, but they are also prone to thermal runaway. Lab experiments have shown that burning batteries can eject metal particles like confetti.
Metals found in wetlands matched batteries
When my team and I returned to the marsh three days after the fire, ash and burned debris covered the ground. Weeks afterward, charred fragments still clung to the vegetation. Our measurements with portable X-ray fluorescence showed sharp increases in nickel, manganese and cobalt compared with data from before the fire. As soon as we saw the numbers, we alerted officials in four counties about the risk. We estimate that about 25 metric tons (55,000 pounds) of heavy metals were deposited across roughly half a square mile (1.2 square kilometers) of wetland around Elkorn Slough, and that was only part of the area that saw fallout. To put this in perspective, the part of the Vistra battery facility that burned was hosting 300 megawatts of batteries, which equates to roughly 1,900 metric tons of cathode material. Estimates of the amount of batteries that burned range from 55% to 80%. Based on those estimates, roughly 1,000 to 1,400 metric tons of cathode material could have been carried into the smoke plume. What we found in the marsh represents about 2% of what may have been released.These contour maps show how metals from the Moss Landing battery fire settled across nearby wetlands. Each color represents how much of a metal – nickel, manganese or cobalt – was found in surface soils. Darker colors mean higher concentrations. The highest levels were measured about two weeks after the fire, then declined as rain and tides dispersed the deposits.Charlie Endris We took samples at hundreds of locations and examined millimeter-thin soil slices with a scanning electron microscope. Those slices revealed metallic particles smaller than one-tenth the width of a human hair – small enough to travel long distances and lodge deep in the lungs. The ratio of nickel to cobalt in these particles matched that of nickel, manganese and cobalt battery cathodes, clearly linking the contamination to the fire. Over the following months, we found that surface concentrations of the metals dropped sharply after major rain and tidal events, but the metals did not disappear. They were remobilized. Some migrated to the main channel of the estuary and may have been flushed out into the ocean. Some of the metals that settled in the estuary could enter the food chain in this wildlife hot spot, often populated with sea otters, harbor seals, pelicans and herons.A high-magnification image of a leaf of bristly oxtongue, seen under a scanning electron microscope, shows a tiny metal particle typically used in cathode material in lithium-ion batteries, a stark reminder that much of the fallout from the fire landed on vegetation and croplands. The image’s scale is in microns: 1 micron is 0.001 millimeters.Ivano Aiello
Making battery storage safer as it expands
The fire at Moss Landing and its fallout hold lessons for other communities, first responders and the design of future lithium-ion battery systems, which are proliferating as utilities seek to balance renewable power and demand peaks. When fires break out, emergency responders need to know what they’re dealing with. A California law passed after the fire helps address this by requiring strengthening containment and monitoring at large battery installations and meetings with local fire officials before new facilities open.How lithium-ion batteries work, and why they can be prone to thermal runaway. Newer lithium-ion batteries that use iron phosphate cathodes are also considered safer from fire risk. These are becoming more common for utility-scale energy storage than batteries with nickel, manganese and cobalt, though they store less energy. How soil is tested is also important. At Moss Landing, some of the government’s sampling turned up low concentrations of the metals, likely because the samples came from broad, mixed layers that diluted the concentration of metals rather than the thin surface deposits where contaminants settled.
Continuing risks to marine life
Metals from the Moss Landing battery fire still linger in the region’s sediments and food webs. These metals bioaccumulate, building up through the food chain: The metals in marsh soils can be taken up by worms and small invertebrates, which are eaten by fish, crabs or shorebirds, and eventually by top predators such as sea otters or harbor seals. Our research group is now tracking the bioaccumulation in Elkhorn Slough’s shellfish, crabs and fish. Because uptake varies among species and seasons, the effect of the metals on ecosystems will take months or years to emerge. Ivano W. Aiello, Professor of Marine Geology, San José State University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
A gustnado east of Limon, Colorado. Image Credit: Jessica Kortekaas
Severe weather can produce dramatic sights—but not every spinning column of air is a tornado.
A [gustnado](chatgpt://generic-entity?number=0) is a brief, ground-level swirl of rotating air that forms along a thunderstorm’s gust front. Gustnadoes often appear suddenly, kicking up dust or debris, which can make them look more dangerous than they actually are.
Unlike tornadoes, gustnadoes do not connect to a storm’s rotating updraft. Because of this, they are usually weaker, short-lived, and difficult to detect on weather radar.
Gustnadoes typically last only seconds to a few minutes and are most commonly spotted in dry regions, where loose soil makes their rotation visible.
The takeaway: If it’s spinning near the ground ahead of a storm, it may look intense—but it’s not always a tornado.
Further Reading
Learn the differences between tornadoes, dust devils, and other rotating weather phenomena in our STM Daily News Knowledge Series.
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How China cleaned up its air pollution – and what that meant for the climate
How China cleaned up its air pollution: Beijing’s air quality went from hazardous to good while Delhi and Lahore still struggle. Discover how China dramatically reduced pollution since 2013—and why cleaner air may have unintended consequences for global warming and climate change.
Delhi: 442. Lahore: 334. Beijing: 16. These are the levels of PM 2.5, one of the principle measures for air pollution, on November 19. As Pakistanis and Indians struggle with hazardous air quality, in Beijing – a city once notorious for its smog – the air quality is currently rated as good. Ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the Chinese government was so concerned about pollution that it introduced temporary restrictions on cars, shut down factories and stopped work on some construction sites. The measures worked and one study later found that levels of air pollution were down 30% during the period when the temporary Olympic restrictions were in place. It would take a few more years before the Chinese government implemented a clean air action plan in 2013. Since then, China has achieved a dramatic improvement in its air quality. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we speak to Laura Wilcox, a professor at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading in the UK, to understand how China managed to clean up its air pollution. But Wilcox’s recent research uncovered some unintended consequences from this cleaner air for the global climate: the pollution was actually helping to cool the atmosphere and by taking it away, it may have accelerated global warming. Wilcox explains:
What we’re seeing is a removing of cooling that’s revealing warming that’s already there. So the air pollution isn’t the cause of the warming. It’s just letting us see stuff that we’ve already done.
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