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What parents need to know about Tylenol, autism and the difference between finding a link and finding a cause in scientific research

The article discusses the ongoing debate regarding the potential link between prenatal acetaminophen (Tylenol) use and autism. While some studies show weak associations, establishing causation remains challenging. Factors like dosage response and sibling outcome comparisons are critical for understanding this complex issue, highlighting the need for more thorough research and consulting healthcare professionals.

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In cases where associations are found, researchers must consider dosage response, differences between siblings and other factors to determine a cause-and-effect relationship. Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

What parents need to know about Tylenol, autism and the difference between finding a link and finding a cause in scientific research

Mark Louie Ramos, Penn State

Claims from the Trump White House about links between use of the painkiller acetaminophen – often sold under the brand name Tylenol in the U.S. – during pregnancy and development of autism have set off a deluge of responses across the medical, scientific and public health communities.

As a father of a child with level 2 autism – meaning autism that requires substantial support – and a statistician who works with such tools as those used in the association studies cited by the White House, I find it useful to think about the nuances of association versus causation in observational studies. I hope that this explanation is helpful to parents and expecting parents who, like me, are deeply invested in the well-being of their children.

a bunch of white pills are shown with the words tylenol 500 on them in red
The painkiller acetominophen is often sold under the brand name Tylenol in the U.S. AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

Association is not causation, but …

Most people have heard this before, but it bears repeating: Association does not imply causation.

An often-cited example is that there is a very strong association between ice cream sales and incidents of shark attacks. Of course, it goes without saying that shark attacks aren’t caused by ice cream sales. Rather, in the summertime, hot weather drives more appetite for ice cream and beach time. The increased number of people at the beach does, in turn, cause the likelihood of shark attacks to increase.

Yet pointing this out on its own is neither intellectually satisfying nor emotionally appeasing when it comes to real-life medical concerns, since an association does suggest potential for a causal relationship.

In other words, some associations do end up being convincingly causal. In fact, some of the most consequential discoveries of the past century in public health, like the links between smoking and lung cancer or the human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, started out as findings of very strong association.

So when it comes to the issue of prenatal acetaminophen use and autism development, it is important to consider how strong the association found is, as well as the extent to which such an association could be considered causal.

Establishing causal association

So how do scientists determine if an observed association is actually causal?

The gold standard for doing so is conducting what are called randomized, controlled experiments. In these studies, participants are randomly assigned to receive treatment or not, and the environment where they are observed is controlled so that the only external element that differs among participants is whether they received treatment or not.

In doing this, researchers reasonably ensure that any difference in the outcomes of the participants can be directly attributed as being caused by whether they received the treatment. That is, any association between treatment and outcome can be considered causal.

Yet oftentimes, conducting such an experiment is impossible, unethical or both. For instance, it would be highly difficult to gather a cohort of pregnant women for an experiment and extremely unethical to randomly assign half of them to take acetaminophen, or any other medication for no particular reason, and the other half not to.

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So when experiments are simply infeasible, an alternative is to make some reasonable assumptions on how observational data would behave if the association was causal and then see if the data aligns with these causal assumptions. This can very broadly be referred to as observational causal inference.

Parsing what the studies mean

So how does this apply to the current controversy over the potential for acetaminophen use during pregnancy to affect the fetus in a way that could result in a condition like autism?

Researchers who try to understand causal roles and links between one variable and potential health outcomes do so by considering: 1) the size and consistency of the association across multiple attempts to estimate it, and 2) the extent to which such association has been established under observational causal inference frameworks.

As early as 1987, researchers have been working to measure possible associations between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and autism. A number of these studies, including multiple large systematic reviews, have found evidence of such associations.

For instance, a 2025 review of 46 studies that examined association between acetaminophen use and an array of neurodevelopmental disorders, including autism, identified papers with five positive associations between acetaminophen and autism.

In one of those studies, which examined 73,881 births, the researchers found that children who were exposed to acetaminophen prenatally were 20% more likely to develop borderline or clinical autism spectrum conditions. Another examined 2.48 million births and reported an estimated association of only 5%.

Both of those are weak associations. For context, estimations of increased lung cancer risk from smoking in the 1950s were between 900% to 1,900%. That is, a smoker is 10 to 20 times more likely than a nonsmoker to develop lung cancer. By comparison, in the two autism studies above, a pregnant woman who takes acetaminophen is 1.05 to 1.20 times more likely than one who does not take the drug to have a child who would be later diagnosed with autism.

It’s also important to keep in mind that many factors can affect how well a study is able to estimate an association. In general, larger sample sizes provide both greater power to detect an association if one does exist, as well as improved precision over estimating the value of the association. This does not mean that studies with smaller sample sizes are not valid, only that from a statistical perspective, researchers like me place greater confidence in an association drawn from a larger sample size.

Once an association – even a small one – is established, researchers then must consider the extent to which causation can be claimed. One way to do this is through what’s called dose-response. This means looking at whether the association is higher among women who took higher doses of acetaminophen during pregnancy.

The study mentioned above that looked at 2.48 million births shows an example of dose-response. It found that pregnant women who reported taking higher doses have higher autism risk.

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Another way to examine possible causality in this context is to analyze sibling outcomes, which that same paper did. Researchers looked at whether associations between acetaminophen and autism persisted within families with more than one child.

For example, in a family with two children, if the mother used acetaminophen during one pregnancy and that child was later diagnosed with autism, but she did not use it during the other pregnancy and that child was not diagnosed, then this strengthens the causal claim. Conversely, if acetaminophen was used during the pregnancy of the child who was not diagnosed with autism and not used during the pregnancy of the child who was, then that weakens the causal claim. When this was included in the analysis, the dose-response disappeared, and in fact the overall 5% increased risk mentioned before likewise disappeared. This weakens the claim of a causal relationship.

Consult your doctor

At present, there is clearly not enough evidence to establish a causal association between prenatal acetaminophen use and autism.

Yet as a parent who wonders if my daughter will ever be able to write her name, or hold a job or raise kids of her own, I understand that such explanations may not appease the fears or concerns of an expecting mother who is suffering from a fever.

Naturally, all of us want absolute certainty.

But that’s not possible when it comes to acetaminophen use, at least not at this time.

Your doctor will be able to provide you with much sounder advice than any existing study on this topic. Your OB-GYNs are very likely aware of these studies and have much better judgment as to how these results should be considered in the context of your personal medical history and needs.

Researchers, meanwhile, will continue to dig deeper into the science of this critically important issue and, hopefully, provide greater clarity in the years to come.

Mark Louie Ramos, Assistant Research Professor of Health Policy and Administration, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Consumer Corner

Cold cities are the most ready for winter, with one exception. See where your city ranks

Cold cities? Every neighborhood has a mix of homeowners who approach seasonal home maintenance differently – there are the people who stay on schedule, and on the other end, the procrastinators. There are the dedicated DIYers, and those who have their favorite maintenance pro saved as a favorite contact in their phone. As it turns out, cities are no different. Some metropolitan areas keep their neighborhoods in tip-top shape, while others are a little more slow-going.

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Cold cities are the most ready for winter, with one exception. See where your city ranks

Cold cities are the most ready for winter, with one exception. See where your city ranks

(Sheeka Sanahori) Every neighborhood has a mix of homeowners who approach seasonal home maintenance differently – there are the people who stay on schedule, and on the other end, the procrastinators. There are the dedicated DIYers, and those who have their favorite maintenance pro saved as a favorite contact in their phone. As it turns out, cities are no different. Some metropolitan areas keep their neighborhoods in tip-top shape, while others are a little more slow-going. 

New data from home services company Angi, covering fall maintenance activity in August, reveals which U.S. metropolitan areas are the most proactive with fall maintenance. Washington, D.C., tops the ranking with the strongest demand for fall maintenance in the country, followed by Columbus, Ohio, and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Northern cities dominate the rest of the list.

Cleveland, Ohio, and Albany-Schenectady-Troy, New York, round out the top five. Cold-weather markets dominate the ranking, accounting for eight of the 10 most-prepared metros. Rochester, New York; Charlotte, North Carolina; Chicago; Indianapolis; and Pittsburgh complete the top 10.

Least fall-ready metros

Fewer than 1 in 5 American cities is prepping for fall at an above-average rate. Among the 66 metros that recorded at least 100 fall maintenance service requests during the analysis period, Los Angeles had the lowest level of per-capita activity, followed by Oklahoma City and Riverside, California. California accounts for four of the bottom 10 markets, with Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego and San Francisco all appearing on the list. These metros historically don’t experience the colder winter climates of the Northeast and Midwest, making fall maintenance less of an imperative.

Grand Rapids, Michigan, stands out as the only clearly cold-weather metro among the 10 least-prepared large metros. The New York City metro, which includes Newark and Jersey City, ranked just outside the 10 least-prepared large metros, coming in at number 11. Other New York state metros, including Syracuse, Rochester and the Albany metro area, were on the most prepared list.

Homeowners are choosing upkeep over upgrades

Sixty-three percent of homeowners who have recently hired a professional completed maintenance work, and 58% completed repairs. Although they may be waiting to do that dream kitchen or bath renovation, they’re focusing for now on the maintenance that keeps their homes in order.

The most common fall maintenance projects focus on outdoor upkeep. Nationally, tree trimming was the most popular, followed by lawn and yard waste cleanup and shrub care.

What homeowners should do now

When tackling a home maintenance list, start at the top of the home by inspecting the roof and gutters. Look for loose or damaged shingles, and make sure gutters are debris-free. It’s also a good idea to ensure downspouts direct water far away from the foundation. Homeowners should inspect these areas from the ground or hire a professional if the work requires climbing or feels unsafe.

Next, check for drafts around the windows and doors. Replacing worn weatherstripping and damaged caulk in the fall can prevent warm air from escaping once the heat comes back on. Homeowners should also inspect their HVAC filters and have the heating system checked before the temperatures drop.

Every home’s maintenance needs will vary, depending on the age and condition of the house and where it’s located. Whether homeowners hire a professional or safely address small issues, making the fixes can prevent larger and more expensive problems later.

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The ranking: Metros from most to least prepared

America’s 10 Most Fall-Prepared Metros
1. Washington, D.C.
2. Columbus, Ohio
3. Milwaukee, Wisconsin
4. Cleveland, Ohio
5. Albany-Schenectady-Troy, New York
6. Rochester, New York
7. Charlotte, North Carolina
8. Chicago, Illinois
9. Indianapolis, Indiana
10. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

10 Metros With the Most Opportunity to Get Fall-Ready
1. Los Angeles, California
2. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
3. Riverside, California
4. Miami, Florida
5. San Diego, California
6. Houston, Texas
7. Grand Rapids, Michigan
8. San Francisco, California
9. Austin, Texas
10. Memphis, Tennessee

Methodology

The rankings are based on fall maintenance activity recorded on Angi during August 2026. Projects included yard cleanup, winterization, roofing and gutters, heating systems, water and drainage, outdoor plumbing, fireplaces and chimneys, pest prevention, and snow and storm preparation. U.S. metropolitan areas were ranked by activity per 100,000 residents using 2020 U.S. Census population data. To qualify for the least-prepared ranking, metros were required to have at least five service requests or jobs during the analysis period. The rankings reflect activity on Angi’s platform and are not a complete measure of all home-maintenance activity within each metro. These rankings reflect activity observed on Angi’s platform and should not be interpreted as a complete measure of all home-maintenance behavior within a metro area.

Photo courtesy of Shutterstock

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Type 2 Diabetes Doesn’t Have to Be Your Future: Medicare Has a Benefit That Can Help

Left unchecked, prediabetes can progress to type 2 diabetes. However, with the right support, prediabetes can often be managed or even reversed. If you have Medicare, you may qualify for a Medicare-covered program that can help you lower your chances of developing type 2 diabetes – at no cost to you.

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Type 2 Diabetes Doesn't Have to Be Your Future: Medicare Has a Benefit That Can Help

(Feature Impact) Nearly 1 in 2 people age 65 and older has prediabetes – a condition where blood sugar (glucose) levels run higher than normal. Left unchecked, prediabetes can progress to type 2 diabetes. However, with the right support, prediabetes can often be managed or even reversed. If you have Medicare, you may qualify for a Medicare-covered program that can help you lower your chances of developing type 2 diabetes – at no cost to you.

The Medicare Diabetes Prevention Program is a covered Medicare benefit that gives you practical tools, personalized support, and proven strategies to make healthy lifestyle changes. Learn how to eat better, exercise more, and build healthy habits that stick while guided by a certified coach who helps you every step of the way.

Research shows the program works. People with prediabetes who complete the program result in weight loss, which ultimately leads to reduced risk of type 2 diabetes onset.

What can you expect?

Prevention does not mean you have to make big changes all at once. This program helps you take small, realistic steps that can add up to lasting results. It includes 16 core sessions where you can learn how to reduce your diabetes risk by making healthier meals, moving more, and building healthy habits.

The core sessions are followed by six months of monthly maintenance sessions to help you keep your momentum.

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You can choose the class format that works for you

You can enroll in these services from approved Medicare Diabetes Prevention Program suppliers and participate in the way most convenient for you:

  • In-Person: Attend sessions in a community location.
  • Live-Distance Learning: Join interactive group sessions from home.
  • Self-Paced Online: This new option allows you to access online content and learn on your own schedule. 

Visit www.medicare.gov/PreventDiabetes to find a class that’s right for you.

Who is eligible?

You may qualify if you are enrolled in Medicare Part B and meet these criteria:

  • Have had one of the following test results within the past 12 months:
    • Hemoglobin A1c between 5.7% and 6.4%
    • Fasting plasma glucose between 110 and 125 mg/dL
    • Two-hour plasma glucose between 140 and 199 mg/dL after an oral glucose tolerance test
  • Have a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or higher (or 23 or higher if you self-report as Asian descent).
  • Have never been diagnosed with type 1 or type 2 diabetes or end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

What does it cost?

If you have Medicare Part B and qualify for the program, you pay nothing to participate. If you are in a Medicare Advantage Plan, you may have to go to an in-network provider to get these services. Contact your plan for more information.

Ready to get started on your healthier future?

Take control of your health on your own terms, schedule, and pace that fits into your life. Check with your doctor to find out if you have prediabetes or are at risk for developing type 2 diabetes. If you’re eligible for the Medicare Diabetes Prevention Program, your doctor can refer you, or you can enroll on your own.

If you’re ready to get started today, find the class that’s right for you at: www.medicare.gov/PreventDiabetes.

Information provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Photos courtesy of Shutterstock

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Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

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Women's Health

Dry Eye: An Overlooked Symptom of Perimenopause and Menopause

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Dry Eye: An Overlooked Symptom of Perimenopause and Menopause

(Feature Impact) Dry eye is one of the most overlooked symptoms of perimenopause, the phase of fluctuating hormones leading up to a woman’s final period, and menopause, the point in a woman’s life when she’s gone a year without a period.

In fact, 79% of women1 recognize hot flashes as a symptom of menopause, but only 14% recognize dry eye as a menopause-related symptom, according to the 2026 Bausch + Lomb (Peri)Menopausal Survey. What’s more, 78% of women1 were surprised to learn that dry eye is a symptom of perimenopause or menopause.

“Dry eye is still widely overlooked as a symptom of menopause, and many women think it’s just a minor nuisance, but the truth is it can significantly affect your daily life,” said Neda Gioia, OD, CNS, IFMCP, FOWNS, founder, Integrative Vision. “Early symptoms are often misunderstood or self-treated but it’s very important for women who experience symptoms to see an eye doctor and get an accurate diagnosis and treatment.”

During perimenopause and menopause, declining hormone levels can impact tear production, tear quality and tear evaporation, contributing to dry eye symptoms including redness, fluctuating vision and a gritty or tired feeling in the eyes, all of which can impact day-to-day comfort and quality of life. If left untreated, dry eyes may worsen over time, potentially impacting eye health and vision. Among peri-, menopausal and post-menopausal women who experienced dry eye, 80% said the symptom came as a surprise.

Respondents reported their dry eye symptoms caused difficulty reading (58%), difficulty using screens (53%), difficulty driving (26%) and reduced productivity (17%), underscoring the often-overlooked impact dry eyes can have on everyday life.1

However, there are a variety of products and treatment approaches available to help manage dry eye symptoms. For example, Bausch + Lomb offers a range of options designed to address the main causes of dry eye.

A doctor-recommended, clinically proven once-daily soft gel supplement that targets the key root causes of dry eyes, Blink NutriTears supports healthy tear production and provides lasting, continuous relief.* § As part of a comprehensive approach to dry eye management, the supplement can be used with Blink Triple Care Preservative Free Lubricant Eye Drops, which are designed to directly address tear evaporation, one of the leading causes of dry eye, and provide instant and long-lasting symptom relief.

An eye care professional can help determine the approach that’s right for each individual. To learn more about dry eye and products to help combat it, visit JustBlink.com.

*These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.

12026 Bausch & Lomb (Peri)Menopause Survey via Suzy, n=402; Women ages 30–80+ who are perimenopausal, menopausal, or post-menopausal
§Based on a clinical study

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