Economy
Even professional economists can’t escape political bias
Political Bias: A study led by economist Aeimit Lakdawala reveals that Republican-leaning economists tend to predict higher GDP growth during Republican presidencies, resulting in less accurate forecasts. This partisan bias, stemming from differing views on tax policy, highlights how even trained professionals can be influenced by ideology, particularly in uncertain economic data.
Aeimit Lakdawala, Wake Forest University
Even professional economists can’t escape political bias
Republican-leaning economists tend to predict stronger economic growth when a Republican is president than Democrats do – and because of this partisan optimism, their forecasts end up being less accurate.
I’m an economist, and my colleagues and I found this by analyzing nearly 40 years of responses to The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey. Unlike most such surveys, the Journal publishes each forecaster’s name, allowing us to link their predictions to their political affiliations.
The respondents were professional economists at major banks, consulting firms and universities whose forecasts help guide financial markets and business decisions. Out of more than 300 economists in our sample, we could identify the political affiliations of 122. We did this by looking at the forecasters’ political donation records, voter registration data and work histories with partisan groups.
The pattern was striking: Republican forecasters systematically predicted higher gross domestic product growth when their party controlled the presidency, representing roughly 10% to 15% of average growth rates during our study period.
When we examined forecast accuracy using real-time GDP data, Republican forecasters made larger errors when their preferred party held office. This suggests partisan optimism makes their professional judgment worse.
What makes this finding particularly notable is its asymmetry. The partisan gap emerged specifically during Republican presidencies. Under Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Republican and Democratic forecasters made virtually identical predictions. That wasn’t the case when George W. Bush, and later Donald Trump, occupied the White House.
Interestingly, this bias appears only in GDP forecasts. When we analyzed predictions for inflation, unemployment and interest rates, we found no systematic differences between Republican and Democratic forecasters.
That makes sense, because GDP forecasts are inherently more uncertain than other economic predictions. Professional forecasters tend to disagree more and make more mistakes when predicting GDP compared to inflation or unemployment rates. This creates opportunities for partisan ideologies to sneak in.
We traced the bias to different views about the effectiveness of tax policies. Using Google Trends data to measure when tax cuts were in the news, we found Republican forecasters become systematically more optimistic precisely when tax policy discussions heat up.
Why it matters
Previous research has found that most people have a strong partisan bias when they make economic predictions. Our work is the first to show that professional economists can also succumb to such influences – despite their training and market incentives to be accurate.
Their errors can come at a high price. Financial markets, policymakers and businesses rely on economists’ forecasts to make major decisions. When the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, when companies plan investments and when investors allocate portfolios, they often reference these professional consensus forecasts.
Our research challenges a common assumption in economics: that aggregating diverse expert forecasts eliminates individual biases and improves accuracy.
This doesn’t mean professional forecasters are incompetent or dishonest. These are highly trained economists with strong financial incentives for accuracy. Rather, our findings reveal how even experts with the best intentions can be unconsciously influenced by their own ideological beliefs – especially when dealing with inherently uncertain data.
What still isn’t known
Several important questions remain unanswered. It’s unclear how this bias might be reduced. Would making forecasters more aware of their political leanings help reduce the effect? Or would developing new forecasting methods that weight predictions based on historical accuracy during different political regimes improve consensus forecasts?
We’re also curious whether institutional factors matter. Might forecasters at institutions with explicit political diversity policies show less bias? How do international forecasters viewing the U.S. economy compare to domestic ones?
Finally, our research focuses on U.S. forecasters during a period of increasing political polarization. Whether similar patterns emerge in other countries with different political systems, or during less polarized times, remains an open question.
The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.
Aeimit Lakdawala, Associate Professor of Economics, Wake Forest University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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jobs help wanted
Ghost Jobs: The Hidden Hiring Trend Affecting Millions of Job Seekers
Ghost jobs are becoming a growing concern for job seekers. Learn what they are, why companies post them, and how they affect hiring, the economy, and your job search.
Why You Keep Applying—But Never Hear Back
If you’ve ever spent hours tailoring your résumé for a position only to hear nothing in return, you may have encountered what’s known as a ghost job.
A ghost job is a job posting that appears active but isn’t currently being filled. While not every old or inactive listing is intentionally misleading, many remain online long after hiring has paused—or even after the position has already been filled.
The result is growing frustration among job seekers and increasing questions about the accuracy of employment data.
What Exactly Is a Ghost Job?
A ghost job is an advertised position where an employer has little or no immediate intention of hiring someone.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the company is acting maliciously. There are several reasons these listings exist.
Companies may:
- Build a database of future candidates
- Test salary expectations and available talent
- Comply with internal hiring policies
- Maintain the appearance of growth
- Delay removing listings after a hiring freeze or filled position
For applicants, however, the experience is often the same: applications disappear into a black hole.
Why Companies Post Ghost Jobs
Some employers say maintaining job listings helps them prepare for future growth.
Others keep positions open because budgets haven’t been finalized or executive approval hasn’t been granted.
Recruiters may also continue collecting résumés so they’re ready when a position eventually opens.
While these reasons may make business sense, they can create unrealistic expectations for applicants actively searching for work.
The Impact on Job Seekers
Ghost jobs can have real consequences.
Many applicants spend dozens of hours:
- Researching companies
- Customizing résumés
- Writing cover letters
- Completing assessments
- Participating in interviews that never lead anywhere
The emotional toll can be significant.
Repeated silence often leaves qualified workers questioning their experience or abilities when the issue may simply be that the position was never actively available.
How Ghost Jobs Affect the Economy
The effects extend beyond individual applicants.
Employment Data Can Be Misleading
Job openings are often viewed as a sign of economic strength.
If a significant share of posted openings aren’t being actively filled, the labor market may appear stronger than it actually is.
That can influence:
- Business confidence
- Consumer confidence
- Economic forecasts
- Public policy discussions
Productivity Suffers
Job seekers spend valuable time applying for positions that may never result in interviews.
Recruiters also spend time managing applications for jobs that aren’t immediately available.
Those inefficiencies create costs for both workers and employers.
Hiring Becomes Less Efficient
When applicants lose trust in job boards, they’re less likely to apply broadly.
Companies with legitimate openings may receive fewer qualified applicants because candidates become skeptical of online listings.
Are Ghost Jobs Illegal?
Generally, no.
In most cases, employers are legally allowed to advertise positions even if they’re not hiring immediately.
However, critics argue that intentionally leaving inactive jobs online without updating their status reduces transparency and wastes applicants’ time.
Some employment experts have called for greater accountability and clearer labeling of inactive or future hiring opportunities.
How to Spot a Ghost Job
While there’s no foolproof method, these warning signs may indicate a listing isn’t actively being filled:
- The same position has been reposted for months.
- The posting never disappears.
- Employees report hiring freezes.
- The company rarely responds to applicants.
- The job description is vague or unusually generic.
Tips for Job Seekers
Instead of applying blindly:
- Focus on recently posted openings.
- Connect with recruiters or current employees.
- Research whether the company is actually expanding.
- Use networking alongside online applications.
- Follow up professionally when possible.
Quality applications often produce better results than sending hundreds of résumés.
Looking Ahead
Artificial intelligence has made it easier than ever for applicants to submit hundreds of applications—and for employers to post and manage thousands of job listings.
As hiring becomes increasingly automated, transparency may become one of the most valuable qualities in the recruiting process.
For both employers and job seekers, trust remains the foundation of a healthy labor market.
Related Links
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM)
- Indeed Career Guide
- LinkedIn Talent Blog
- CareerBuilder Advice & Resources
- Monster Career Advice
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News
Joby Aviation and Toyota kick off manufacturing alliance to scale electric air taxi production
Joby Aviation and Toyota launch a joint venture to improve productivity, quality, and cost as they prepare to scale electric air taxi production.
Joby Aviation and Toyota Motor Corporation have launched the initial phase of a strategic manufacturing alliance aimed at accelerating commercial production of electric air taxis—an early step the companies say is designed to make “air mobility for all” a practical, everyday reality.
Announced June 30, 2026, the partnership formalizes a new joint venture that will combine Joby’s electric aviation development with Toyota’s production systems and operational expertise. The near-term focus: building the groundwork for commercial production while pushing improvements in productivity, quality, and cost—key factors as the industry moves from prototypes to scaled manufacturing.
What the joint venture is designed to do
According to the companies, the alliance will initially concentrate on:
- Establishing the foundation for commercial production capability
- Advancing manufacturing excellence with an emphasis on productivity, quality, and cost
- Supporting expansion of Joby’s production capacity as it works toward aircraft certification and prepares for anticipated demand
The announcement positions Toyota’s manufacturing playbook—known globally for lean production and continuous improvement—as a lever to help Joby move from development into repeatable, high-quality output at scale.
Why it matters: eVTOLs need scale, not just flight tests
Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft have become one of the most closely watched bets in next-generation transportation, but the path to viable air taxi services depends on more than successful test flights. Certification timelines, supply chain readiness, and the ability to produce aircraft consistently (and affordably) are often what separates promising technology from commercial reality.
By forming a joint venture focused on manufacturing readiness, Joby and Toyota are signaling that the next competitive frontier is industrialization—how quickly and reliably eVTOL aircraft can be built to meet safety standards and market demand.
Related Links for Further reading
- Joby Aviation (official): https://www.jobyaviation.com
- Joby Investor Relations / News (official updates & filings): https://ir.jobyaviation.com
- Toyota Newsroom (official): https://www.toyotanewsroom.com
- Toyota Global (corporate overview): https://global.toyota/en
- FAA Advanced Air Mobility / Air Taxis (context): https://www.faa.gov/air-taxis
What executives are saying
Joby founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt emphasized the long-running relationship between the companies, calling the joint venture a reflection of shared confidence in the opportunity ahead.
“Toyota has been by Joby’s side for nearly a decade, providing invaluable guidance and support as we built the foundation for manufacturing our aircraft,” Bevirt said. “Together, we share a vision of making aerial mobility an everyday reality.”
Toyota Motor Corporation Chairman Akio Toyoda framed air mobility as an extension of the company’s broader mission.
“Since our founding, we’ve been guided by the philosophy of providing mobility for all,” Toyoda said, adding that Toyota views air mobility as “a natural extension of that philosophy—from the ground into the sky.”
About the companies
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is a California-based transportation company developing an all-electric eVTOL air taxi. The company intends to operate its own air taxi service in cities worldwide and sell aircraft to other operators and partners.
Toyota (NYSE: TM) has operated in North America for nearly 70 years and says it is focused on sustainable, next-generation mobility through Toyota and Lexus brands. Toyota reports nearly 64,000 employees in North America, 14 manufacturing plants, and more than 1,800 dealerships. The company also noted that its North Carolina plant began assembling automotive batteries for electrified vehicles in 2025.
What to watch for next
For readers tracking the air taxi sector, the next milestones will likely center on:
- Details on how the joint venture will be structured operationally
- Updates on Joby’s certification progress and production ramp timelines
- Signs of how manufacturing improvements translate into cost reductions and throughput
- Additional agreements or expanded collaboration as the alliance progresses
While the companies highlighted expected benefits, they also noted the usual forward-looking risks—such as regulatory certification timelines, market conditions, and the ability to finalize additional agreements.
Source: Toyota Motor North America / PRNewswire (June 30, 2026)
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financial wellness
Building Brighter Futures: Helping Young People Succeed in a Changing Economy
Changing Economy: During a time when the economy is changing rapidly and shifting the landscape of work into uncertain territory, academic success is no longer enough to put young people on a stable path to the future. Smart students need to start taking steps in new directions, adding key concepts like financial literacy, economic mobility and entrepreneurship to their knowledge arsenals.
Building Brighter Futures: Helping Young People Succeed in a Changing Economy
(Feature Impact) During a time when the economy is changing rapidly and shifting the landscape of work into uncertain territory, academic success is no longer enough to put young people on a stable path to the future. Once, a high school diploma was enough to land a well-paying job. Then a college degree became the gold standard. Now the roadmap has changed again, which means that smart students need to start taking steps in new directions.
According to Junior Achievement, three key concepts to add to modern teenagers’ knowledge arsenal include financial literacy, economic mobility and entrepreneurship.
Why Financial Literacy Matters
When young people are equipped with the knowledge they need to earn, manage, save and invest money, it supports their journey through every life milestone ahead, from education and homeownership to retirement and more. Financial literacy gives people the confidence to make smart decisions while dodging costly mistakes like getting into high-interest debt.
A recent Junior Achievement survey indicated that although 42% of Americans struggle with money management, 23% feel their income could be sufficient if they understood how to manage it more effectively. Giving students a strong foundation in financial literacy can set them up well to not only earn money but use it wisely to meet their future needs and accomplish their goals.
The Power of Economic Mobility
Economic mobility refers to the idea that each generation can expect to achieve better opportunities and more financial stability than the one before. Today’s youth are growing increasingly skeptical of this possibility, and for good reason: they see that even many college graduates are underemployed and struggling to find their feet.
There’s no denying the game has changed. However, upward economic mobility is still within reach for students who are willing to learn the new rules, especially if they have parents and educators supporting their journeys. With or without a college degree, students who engage with their communities, believe in their own potential and focus on building transferable personal and entrepreneurial skills can find themselves well-positioned to navigate a changing world.
How to Grow Entrepreneurial Skills
Topics like financial literacy and business acumen can be taught in a variety of ways both in and out of the classroom. Other key entrepreneurial skills – like leadership, confidence, work ethic, creativity and critical thinking – are more like muscles that get stronger when they’re trained. While academics are still important, hands-on opportunities and experiences are invaluable parts of the equation to prepare students for economic success.
Take programs like Future Bound by Junior Achievement, for example, which is an immersive annual event designed to empower high school students with essential skills and opportunities to innovate. Participants put their intelligence, creativity and ambition to the test during four team competitions where they can showcase and hone real-world business and economic skills. Winners receive national honors, awards, scholarships and prizes from event sponsors, including Pacific Life Foundation and Staples, among others. Plus, all attendees get the chance to network with industry leaders from around the country, participate in workshops and connect with other future-focused teens.
Whether you’re a student, parent, educator or volunteer, explore more resources to help young people succeed at JA.org.
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock
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