Blog
Arizona Monsoon 2025 Forecast: Above-Normal Rainfall Expected Across the State
The Climate Prediction Center’s 2025 outlook predicts above-normal rainfall for Arizona’s monsoon season, with higher temperatures expected statewide. Learn what this means for Phoenix and how to prepare.
Last Updated on June 14, 2025 by Rod Washington
Arizona residents can anticipate a wetter-than-average monsoon season in 2025, according to the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. The forecast indicates a 33% to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation across most of the state, with the highest probabilities in east-central Arizona.
What’s Driving the Forecast?
Several factors contribute to the optimistic precipitation outlook:
Soil Moisture Conditions: Unusually dry soil across the Southwest can enhance monsoon activity. Dry soils heat up more quickly, potentially strengthening the thermal low that draws moisture into the region. ENSO-Neutral Conditions: The Climate Prediction Center notes a 74% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Such conditions often lead to more typical monsoon patterns, without the suppressing effects associated with El Niño.
What to Expect in Phoenix
For Phoenix, the outlook suggests a 39% chance of above-normal precipitation, a 33% chance of near-normal precipitation, and a 28% chance of below-normal precipitation during the July-September monsoon period. While the probabilities don’t guarantee a wetter season, the highest likelihood leans toward increased rainfall.
Preparing for Monsoon Season
With the potential for increased rainfall, it’s essential to prepare for the associated hazards:
Flash Flooding: Heavy downpours can lead to sudden flash floods, especially in urban areas and dry washes. Dust Storms (Haboobs): Strong winds ahead of thunderstorms can create massive dust storms, reducing visibility and air quality. Lightning and Downburst Winds: Severe thunderstorms can produce dangerous lightning and sudden, strong wind gusts.
Safety Tips
Stay Informed: Monitor weather forecasts and alerts from trusted sources like the National Weather Service. Avoid Flooded Areas: Never drive through flooded roadways; turn around, don’t drown. Secure Outdoor Items: High winds can turn unsecured objects into projectiles. Prepare an Emergency Kit: Include essentials like water, non-perishable food, flashlight, batteries, and first aid supplies.
For a detailed overview of the 2025 Arizona Monsoon Outlook, you can watch the following video:
For more information and updates, visit 12News.
Source: 12News
Nourishing Our Heroes: Eight Years of Impact at Phoenix VA’s Veggies for Veterans
Nourishing Our Heroes: Eight Years of Impact at Phoenix VA’s Veggies for Veterans
