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Forecasters expect a busy 2025 hurricane season – a storm scientist explains why and what meteorologists are watching

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Last Updated on July 11, 2025 by Daily News Staff

hurricane season

Hurricane from space. Elements of this image were furnished by NASA. High quality photo

Colin Zarzycki, Penn State

U.S. forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are expecting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms, and 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes.

But, how do they know what’s likely to happen months in the future?

I’m an atmospheric scientist who studies extreme weather. Let’s take a look at what Atlantic hurricane forecasts are based on and why those forecasts can shift during the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

What goes into a seasonal forecast

Think of the preseason hurricane forecast as the 30,000-foot view: It can’t predict if or when a storm will hit a particular location, but it can offer insight into how many storms are likely to form throughout the entire Atlantic, and how active the season overall might be.

These outlooks rely heavily on two large-scale climate factors.

The first is the sea surface temperature in areas where tropical cyclones tend to form and grow. Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. So when the Atlantic is unusually warm, as it has been in recent years, it provides more fuel for storms to form and intensify.

A map of the Gulf, Caribbean and North Atlantic shows sea surface temperatures above 79 in much of the region. The Caribbean is warmer, and the Atlantic gets cooler farther from shore.
Once water temperatures are 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius), hurricanes can form. Most of the Gulf was above that by late May 2025.
NOAA/NESDIS

The second key ingredient that meteorologists have their eye on is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which forecasters refer to as ENSO. ENSO is a climate cycle that shifts every few years between three main phases: El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral space that lives somewhere in between.

During El Niño, winds over the Atlantic high up in the troposphere – roughly 25,000 to 40,000 feet – strengthen and can disrupt storms and hurricanes. La Niña, on the other hand, tends to reduce these winds, making it easier for storms to form and grow. When you look over the historical hurricane record, La Niña years have tended to be busier than their El Niño counterparts, as we saw from 2020 through 2023.

We’re in the neutral phase as the 2025 hurricane season begins, and probably will be for at least a few more months. That means upper-level winds aren’t particularly hostile to hurricanes, but they’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet either.

At the same time, sea surface temperatures are running warmer than the 30-year average, but not quite at the record-breaking levels seen in some recent seasons.

Taken together, these conditions point to a moderately above-average hurricane season.

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It’s important to emphasize that these factors merely load the dice, tilting the odds toward more or fewer storms, but not guaranteeing an outcome. A host of other variables influence whether a storm actually forms, how strong it becomes, and whether it ever threatens land.

The smaller influences forecasters can’t see yet

Once hurricane season is underway, forecasters start paying close attention to shorter-term influences.

These subseasonal factors evolve quickly enough that they don’t shape the entire season. However, they can noticeably raise or lower the chances for storms developing in the coming two to four weeks.

One factor is dust lofted from the Sahara Desert by strong winds and carried from east to west across the Atlantic.

These dust plumes tend to suppress hurricanes by drying out the atmosphere and reducing sunlight that reaches the ocean surface. Dust outbreaks are next-to-impossible to predict months in advance, but satellite observations of growing plumes can give forecasters a heads-up a couple weeks before the dust reaches the primary hurricane development region off the coast of Africa.

A dust plume in 2020.
Dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert can tamp down hurricane activities by shading the ocean over the main development region for hurricanes and drying out the atmosphere, just off the African coast. This plume spread over 2,000 miles in June 2020.
NASA

Another key ingredient that doesn’t go into seasonal forecasts but becomes important during the season are African easterly waves. These “waves” are clusters of thunderstorms that roll off the West African coast, tracking from east to west across the ocean. Most major storms in the Atlantic basin, especially in the peak months of August and September, can trace their origins back to one of these waves.

Forecasters monitor strong waves as they begin their westward journey across the Atlantic, knowing they can provide some insight about potential risks to U.S. interests one to two weeks in advance.

Also in this subseasonal mix is the Madden–Julian Oscillation. The MJO is a wave-like pulse of atmospheric activity that moves slowly around the tropics every 30 to 60 days. When the MJO is active over the Atlantic, it enhances the formation of thunderstorms associated with hurricanes. In its suppressed phase, storm activity tends to die down. The MJO doesn’t guarantee storms – or a lack of them – but it turns up or down the odds. Its phase and position can be tracked two or three weeks in advance.

Lastly, forecasters will talk about the Loop Current, a deep river of warm water that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.

When storms pass over the Loop Current or its warm eddies, they can rapidly intensify because they are drawing energy from not just the warm surface water but from warm water that’s tens of meters deep. The Loop Current has helped power several historic Gulf storms, including Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Ida in 2021.

A map of water temperature showing very warm water in a loop into the Gulf
The Loop Current stretched well into the Gulf in May 2022. The scale, in meters, shows the maximum depth at which temperatures were 78 F (26 C) or greater.
Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY-ND

But the Loop Current is always shifting. Its strength and location in early summer may look very different by late August or September.

Combined, these subseasonal signals help forecasters fine-tune their outlooks as the season unfolds.

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Where hurricanes form shifts over the months

Where storms are most likely to form and make landfall also changes as the pages of the calendar turn.

In early summer, the Gulf of Mexico warms up faster than the open Atlantic, making it a notable hotspot for early-season tropical storm development, especially in June and July. The Texas coast, Louisiana, and the Florida Panhandle often face a higher early-season risk than locations along the Eastern seaboard.

Maps of storm activity by month
These are generally the busiest areas during each month of hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t make landfall elsewhere.
NOAA

By August and September, the season reaches its peak. This is when those waves moving off the coast of Africa become a primary source of storm activity. These long-track storms are sometimes called “Cape Verde hurricanes” because they originate near the Cape Verde Islands off the African coast. While many stay over open water, others can gather steam and track toward the Caribbean, Florida or the Carolinas.

Later in the hurricane season, storms are more likely to form in the western Atlantic or Caribbean, where waters are still warm and upper-level winds remain favorable. These late-season systems have a higher probability of following atypical paths, as Sandy did in 2012 when it struck the New York City region and Milton did in 2024 before making landfall in Florida.

At the end of the day, the safest way to think about hurricane season is this: If you live along the coast, don’t let your guard down. Areas susceptible to hurricanes are never totally immune from hurricanes, and it only takes one to make it a dangerous – and unforgettable – season.

Colin Zarzycki, Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climate Dynamics, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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health and wellness

Zepbound Linked to Lower Healthcare Costs in Adults 55+ With Obesity, Real-World Study Suggests

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A real-world study found sustained Zepbound use in adults 55+ with obesity was linked to lower healthcare costs and fewer hospital and ER visits over time.

A new real-world study of adults over age 55 with overweight or obesity found that sustained use of Zepbound (tirzepatide) for weight management was associated with lower healthcare costs over time compared with similar adults who were not treated. Eli Lilly and Company said the findings were driven in part by lower rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits, and were published in Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism.

What the study found

According to Lilly, researchers estimated healthcare cost differences over time (excluding the cost of Zepbound itself) using two established analytic methods. Across both approaches, monthly healthcare costs were lower, on average, among older adults who stayed on Zepbound.

Key estimates reported in the release include:

  • At six months: costs were up to 15% lower (up to $181 per patient, per month).
  • At 12 months: the estimated difference widened to as much as $607 per patient, per month, reflecting up to 38% lower costs than those not treated (estimates varied by model).

In the primary analysis, adults over 55 treated with Zepbound had lower rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits across every follow-up period, along with numerically higher rates of routine outpatient and office visitsa pattern the company said was consistent with greater engagement in routine care.

Why Medicare is part of the conversation

Lilly said the cost findings may be relevant for older adults, including those in Medicares GLP-1 Bridge program. The company noted that beginning at six months, estimated healthcare savings nearly covered the programs monthly treatment cost of $195 per patient, per month, and by 12 months the estimated savings exceeded the reported monthly treatment cost.

Its important to note the release also emphasizes a limitation: claims data do not capture Zepbounds net price, and the study excluded the cost of Zepbound from total treatment costs. That means the reported differences reflect potential savings elsewhere in care that could offset treatment costs, not the full net cost impact.

Who was included in the analysis

The retrospective observational cohort study used Komodos Healthcare Map, a database of de-identified claims data from more than 330 million individuals enrolled in U.S. healthcare plans. The analysis included 15,843 adults over age 55 (mean age 64.5) with obesity or overweight plus at least one obesity-related complication who initiated Zepbound between November 2023 and September 2025. Each Zepbound user was matched 1:1 with a control participant who met the same eligibility criteria but did not initiate GLP-1 or GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist medication.

What Zepbound is

Zepbound (tirzepatide) is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist indicated for adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have at least one weight-related medical problem, to lose weight and keep it off. Lilly also noted Zepbound is FDA-approved to treat adults with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and obesity, and should be used alongside a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity.

Safety summary (high level)

The release includes an indications and safety summary with warnings. Among other risks, Lilly notes Zepbound carries a warning about thyroid tumors, including thyroid cancer, and may cause serious side effects such as severe stomach problems, dehydration leading to kidney problems, gallbladder problems, pancreatitis, serious allergic reactions, and low blood sugar (especially when used with certain diabetes medicines). Patients should talk with a healthcare provider about risks and whether the medication is appropriate for them.

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  • PRNewswire / Eli Lilly and Company press release (Aug. 26, 2026): Zepbound linked to lower healthcare costs in adults over age 55 with obesity according to a real-world study

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Economy

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips as Americans Grow More Cautious About the Future

U.S. consumer confidence edged lower in August as Americans became more pessimistic about jobs, income and business conditions over the next six months, despite improved views of the current economy.

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NEW YORK — U.S. consumer confidence edged lower in August as Americans expressed greater concern about future business conditions, jobs and household income, even as their assessment of the current economy improved.

U.S. consumer confidence slipped in August 2026 as Americans grew more concerned about jobs, income and future business conditions.

The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July.

The relatively small decline, however, masks a widening gap between how consumers view conditions today and what they expect in the months ahead.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, climbed 6.8 points to 121.2, reversing three consecutive months of declines.

Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook for income, business and employment conditions, dropped 5.8 points to 68.2.

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in the organization’s Aug. 25 release.

Jobs Look Better Today — But Consumers Worry About Tomorrow

Americans’ perceptions of the current labor market improved considerably during August. About 27% said jobs were plentiful, up from 24.4% in July, while 19.5% said jobs were hard to get, down from 21.7%.

The outlook for the next six months was considerably weaker.

Only 14.6% expected more jobs to become available, compared with 16.4% in July. At the same time, 26.1% expected fewer jobs.

Consumers were also less optimistic about their incomes. About 17.6% expected their income to increase, down from 19.5% in July, while 13.8% expected their income to decline.

Prices Remain on Consumers’ Minds

Inflation continues to influence how Americans feel about the economy. According to The Conference Board, consumers’ written responses frequently mentioned prices, oil and gasoline, food and groceries, trade, jobs, and war or conflict.

Average and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased slightly.

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Interest rates remain another concern. More than six in 10 consumers — 61.3% — expected interest rates to rise over the next year, although that was slightly lower than the 62% recorded in July.

Consumers Are Still Planning to Spend

The softer outlook hasn’t eliminated Americans’ willingness to make purchases.

Auto-buying expectations remained strong on a six-month moving-average basis, while homebuying expectations declined slightly in August but remained on a longer-term upward trend after hitting decade lows in early 2024.

Restaurants, bars and takeout; utilities; and streaming, internet and mobile services ranked among consumers’ leading planned service expenses.

Consumers were less enthusiastic about discretionary activities including movies, personal-travel hotels, airfare, amusement parks, museums and historical sites.

Why It Matters

The August numbers paint a mixed picture of the American consumer.

People are seeing some improvement in the economy they are experiencing today, particularly in the labor market. But their expectations for the next six months are becoming noticeably more cautious.

That divide matters because consumer spending represents a major part of U.S. economic activity. If concerns about employment, inflation and household income begin translating into reduced spending, weakening confidence could eventually become more significant for the broader economy.

For now, the August survey suggests Americans haven’t stopped spending — but they’re increasingly keeping an eye on what may be coming next.

The preliminary August Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted online for The Conference Board by Toluna. The survey period was Aug. 3–16, 2026.

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Source: The Conference Board, August 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey®, released Aug. 25, 2026.

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Lifestyle

California and Minnesota Face $1B Medicaid Funding Hold

The Trump administration is withholding more than $1 billion in Medicaid funding from California and Minnesota over disputed medical claims. A social-policy historian examines how concerns about fraud have historically been used to justify funding cuts and undermine public confidence in Medicaid.

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Agents, many wearing jackets or vests emblazoned with 'FBI,' exit a building with what appears to be a trove of documents.Medicaid Funding.
Federal agents execute a search in December 2025 tied to potential Medicaid fraud in Bloomington, Minn. Christopher Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images

Ben Zdencanovic, University of Cambridge

California and Minnesota Face $1B Medicaid Funding Hold

The Trump administration announced on July 21, 2026, that it’s withholding US$867 million in federal healthcare funding for California and $200 million for Minnesota – a total of more than $1 billion.

Federal officials said the two states had failed to provide sufficient evidence that a number of disputed medical claims were legitimate. These include bills for in-home care and other services covered by the two states’ Medicaid programs for low-income residents.

Medicaid administrators say the funds can be recovered if the states supply the requested documentation. But the action is highly unusual: Typically, Medicaid officials partner with states to conduct an audit when they suspect fraud, a careful process that often takes years.

It’s the second time in 2026 that the Trump administration has withheld or deferred federal Medicaid funds for several states, including California and Minnesota, because of alleged fraud and abuse. The Democratic governors of those states have called the decision a politically motivated attack on their constituents.

I’m a historian of social policy who led the first comprehensive historical overview of Medi-Cal, California’s statewide Medicaid system. I’ve found that U.S. leaders have long used the language of fraud and abuse to blur the line between correcting very real failures within Medicaid and – as I believe the Trump administration is currently doing – discrediting and defunding the program itself.

Who pays when Medicaid is cut? It affects children’s health care, nursing home care, disability services and health insurance.

Slashing the safety net

The Medicaid restrictions are part of the Trump administration’s overall efforts to slash federal funding for the safety net.

The large tax-and-spending bill that Trump signed into law in July 2025 as the cornerstone of his second-term agenda pared eligibility for Medicaid by introducing work requirements for some adults. It is cutting close to $1 trillion in federal spending on the program over the next decade.

Researchers estimate that almost 12 million people, on top of the estimated 28 million without health insurance in 2025, could become uninsured by 2034 due to these changes. By mid-2026, more than 3 million people had already lost their insurance coverage due to Republican changes to the Affordable Care Act.

‘Padlocking’ the ‘cookie jar’

In February 2026, Vice President JD Vance, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS, announced a new anti-fraud initiative called Comprehensive Regulations to Uncover Suspicious Healthcare.

Also known by its rather unsubtle acronym, CRUSH, this initiative is taking unprecedented steps to withhold and defer funds in response to suspected fraud. “CMS is done trying to catch fraudsters with their hands in the cookie jar,” Oz said in announcing CRUSH’s formation. “Instead, we’re padlocking the jar and letting them starve.”

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To be sure, Medicaid fraud, waste and abuse – such as providers billing Medicaid for services that are unnecessary or never rendered – are very real problems that cost taxpayers billions of dollars annually. They do divert funds from the low-income and disabled Americans enrolled in the program.

But the Trump administration’s latest moves are part of a much broader history of weaponizing Medicaid fraud and abuse – both real and imagined. I see them as a politicized attempt to prove that Medicaid itself is wasteful, that state governments cannot be trusted to administer federal money, and that public benefits inevitably invite dishonesty.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. points to a chart pertaining to Medicaid fraud.
Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks about alleged Medicaid fraud and charges in Minneapolis in May 2026. Christopher Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images

Providing little oversight at the start

Medicaid was established, along with Medicare for older adults, in 1965 as part of President Lyndon B. Johnson’s “Great Society” reforms. Despite providing millions of Americans with health insurance coverage for the first time, these programs had few centralized mechanisms for the kind of federal oversight that could prevent and catch fraud and abuse.

And the sheer scale and complexity of the Medicaid system – joint federal-state funding, varying eligibility requirements, millions of enrollees and thousands of providers – created opportunities for questionable billing practices among providers.

The 1970s saw a number of highly publicized Medicaid scandals involving nursing homes, laboratories, pharmacies and so-called “Medicaid mills” – healthcare providers that sought to bill the government for large numbers of Medicaid patients for shoddy and often fraudulent care.

A series of high-profile congressional investigations spurred demand for stronger Medicaid oversight and enforcement. That led to the Medicare-Medicaid Anti-Fraud and Abuse Amendments of 1977, which established the national Medicaid Fraud Control Units program.

The state-run Medicaid Fraud Control Units received generous federal matching funds to investigate and prosecute fraud.

The most serious Medicaid fraud was generally committed by healthcare providers and contractors, not patients. Medicaid Fraud Control Units were principally responsible for investigating providers, while also prosecuting the abuse and neglect of patients whose care was billed to Medicaid.

At the same time, however, Medicaid was becoming entangled in a broader political debate over social spending, whether many Americans were becoming too dependent on government benefits, and the alleged use of benefits by people who should not have received them. In the 1980s and 1990s, widely circulated stories about Medicaid exposed fraud and malfeasance by providers.

But disproportionately, they also highlighted the comparatively few instances of fraud by people enrolled in the program, such as cases where they submitted false receipts for covered medically related travel or sold drugs they obtained through Medicaid for free or at low cost.

Using Medicare fraud to justify spending cuts

The distinction between Medicaid and cash assistance programs, such as the Aid to Families with Dependent Children “welfare” program, frequently disappeared in political rhetoric. False or exaggerated stories that portrayed African American single mothers living extravagantly while fraudulently claiming welfare benefits became potent symbols of supposed government failure.

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While campaigning as a presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan seized on this trope of the “welfare queen” in his attacks on social spending.

A large crowd of people wait on lines in a black and white photo from the 1970s.
People line up at the Baltimore City Welfare Office in 1975, years before concerns about social spending led to big cuts to safety net programs. O’Halloran/Library of Congress via Getty Images

By the mid-1990s, opposition to welfare programs had become increasingly bipartisan. Politicians in both parties often used tales of Medicaid fraud on the part of providers and recipients to justify tighter eligibility rules and spending cuts.

Federal oversight expanded further with the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, which created the Medicaid Integrity Program and strengthened federal oversight of state programs. The Affordable Care Act, the landmark healthcare legislation Congress passed in 2010, added new measures to screen providers and verify billing.

Concerns about Medicaid’s “integrity” became highly politicized in the debates surrounding the ACA. Critics of Medicaid expansion argued that increasing the number of people who could get health insurance through the program would increase fraud and improper enrollment. Supporters of expanding Medicaid to help more Americans gain health insurance maintained that anti-fraud rhetoric often disguised ideological opposition to the program’s expansion.

Blurring distinctions then and now

For the six decades that this program has helped millions of low-income Americans get healthcare, politicians have blurred the distinction between protecting Medicaid from abuse and using abuse to discredit Medicaid itself.

In my view, the Trump administration’s campaigns against California and Minnesota continue that pattern. It is using real weaknesses within Medicaid to advance much broader political arguments: that Democratic states cannot be trusted, that public benefits naturally invite abuse, and that withholding funds is itself a form of reform.

The result will no doubt be that fewer low-income Americans will be able to get the healthcare they need.

Ben Zdencanovic, Assistant Professor of U.S. History, University of Cambridge

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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