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Disaster evacuations can take much longer than people expect − computer simulations could help save lives and avoid chaos

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Disaster evacuations
Wildfire smoke rises beyond homes near Castaic Lake as another California wildfire spread on Jan. 22, 2025. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Ashley Bosa, Boise State University

When a wildfire notification goes off on your mobile phone, it can trigger all kinds of emotions and confusion.

You might glance outside and see no smoke. Across the street, your neighbors have mixed reactions: One is leisurely walking their dog, another is calmly packing a small bag, while a third appears to be preparing for an extended vacation.

The notification advises you to grab your “go bag,” but then panic can set in as you realize you don’t have one ready. So, you scour the local emergency management website for guidance and discover how much you’ve overlooked: important documents such as birth certificates, an extra flashlight, your children’s medications, a phone charger.

Before you can gather your thoughts, a second notification arrives – this time telling you to evacuate.

Packing the car, wrangling children or a skittish cat, figuring out where to go – it can feel frenzied in the face of danger. As you pull out, you join a traffic jam on your street, with a black smoke plume rising nearby and neighbors still loading their cars.

This chaos highlights a worst-case scenario for wildfire evacuations – one that can cause delays, heighten risks for evacuees and complicate access for emergency responders. It’s why researchers like me who study natural hazards are developing ways to help communities recognize where residents may need the most help and avoid evacuation bottlenecks in the face of future disasters.

The importance of being prepared

Confusion is common in the face of disasters, and it underscores the need for communities and individuals to be prepared.

Delays in evacuating, or the inability to evacuate safely, can have catastrophic consequences, not only for those trying to flee but also for the first responders and emergency managers working to manage the crisis. These delays often stem from a lack of preparedness or uncertainty about when and how to act.

A study of survivors of an Australian wildfire that killed 172 people in the state of Victoria in 2009 found that two-thirds of survivors reported that they had carried out an existing disaster plan, while researchers found the majority of those who died either didn’t follow a disaster plan or couldn’t. Forecasters had warned that high temperatures were coming with very low humidity, and public alerts had gone out about the high fire risk. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wq4VCI2JwgM?wmode=transparent&start=0 Residents had little time to evacuate as the Eaton Fire spread into Altadena, Calif., on Jan. 7, 2025. Source: NBC.

How people perceive risks and the environmental and social cues around them – such as how much smoke they see, their neighbors’ choices or the wording of the notification – will directly affect the speed of their response.

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Past experience with a disaster evacuation also has an impact. Rapid population growth in recent years in the wildland-urban interface – areas where human development meets wildfire-prone areas – has meant that more people with little or no experience with wildfires are living in fire-risk areas. Wildland areas also tend to have fewer evacuation routes, making mass evacuations more difficult and time-consuming.

Adding to the complexity is the fact that large wildfires are occurring in regions not historically prone to such events and during times of the year traditionally considered outside of wildfire season. This shift has left communities and emergency response teams grappling with unprecedented challenges, particularly when it comes to evacuations.

Computer models can help spot risks

To address these challenges, researchers are developing systems to help communities model how their residents are likely to respond in the event of a disaster.

The results can help emergency crews understand where bottlenecks are likely to occur along evacuation routes, depending on the timing of the notice and the movement of the fire. They can also help fire managers understand where neighborhoods may need to be notified faster or need more help evacuating.

Firefighters walk near three burned out vehicles on the side of roads.
Firefighters inspect burned out cars along a road in Paradise, Calif., after a deadly fire swept through the wooded area in November 2018. Some people abandoned their cars when they became trapped in traffic with few ways out. AP Photo/John Locher

My team at the Hazard and Climate Resilience Institute at Boise State University is working on one of these projects. We have been surveying communities across Idaho and Oregon to assess how people living in the wildland-urban interface areas perceive wildfire risks and prepare for evacuations.

Using those surveys, we can capture household-level decision data, such as which evacuation routes these residents would take, how many cars they plan to drive and where they would evacuate to.

We can also gauge how prepared residents would be to evacuate, or whether they would likely stay and try to defend their home instead.

Emergency responders push a person laying on an ambulance stretcher with smoky air and a city bus nearby.
Evacuating nursing homes takes time and special resources, including evacuation sites that can meet people’s health needs. When the Eaton Fire swept into Altadena, Calif., on Jan. 7, 2025, a senior care facility had little time to get its residents safely away. AP Photo/Ethan Swope

With that data, we can simulate how long it will take emergency response teams to evacuate an entire community safely. The models could also show where difficulties with evacuations might be likely to arise and help residents understand how they can adjust their evacuation plans for a safer escape for everyone.

Bridging the gap between awareness and action

One of the key goals of this research is to bridge the gap between awareness and action.

While many residents in wildfire-prone areas understand the risks, translating that knowledge into concrete preparations remains a challenge. The concept of a “go bag,” for example, is widely promoted but often poorly understood. Essential items such as medications, important documents and pet supplies are frequently overlooked until it’s too late.

Clear and timely communication during wildfire crises is also essential. Evacuation warning messages such as “Ready, Set, Go!” are designed to prompt specific actions, but their effectiveness depends on residents understanding and trusting the system. Delayed responses or mixed signals can create confusion.

As wildfire risk rises for many communities, preparedness is no longer optional – it’s a necessity. Emergency notifications vary by state and county, so check your local emergency management office to understand what to expect and sign up for alerts. Being prepared can help communities limit some of the most devastating impacts of wildfires.

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Ashley Bosa, Postdoctoral Researcher, Hazards and Climate Resilience Institute, Boise State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Food and Beverage

Jack-o’-Lantern Stuffed Peppers Prove Fun Isn’t Just for Pumpkins

These Jack-o’-Lantern Stuffed Peppers give you a Halloween-themed, kid-approved way to put vegetables on the dinner table.

Recipes:
Jack-o’-Lantern Stuffed Peppers

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Jack-o'-Lantern Stuffed Peppers Prove Fun Isn't Just for Pumpkins

Jack-o’-Lantern Stuffed Peppers Prove Fun Isn’t Just for Pumpkins

(Feature Impact) Jack-o’-lantern carving is a cherished fall tradition – but pumpkins aren’t the only vegetables you can decorate with fun, spooky or scary faces. These Jack-o’-Lantern Stuffed Peppers give you a Halloween-themed, kid-approved way to put vegetables on the dinner table.

https://stmdailynews.com/halloween-monster-burgers-that-just-might-bite-back/

Filled with savory ground turkey, brown rice, melty cheese and warm, savory spices, these peppers taste as autumnal as they look. It’s simple to customize the filling to your family’s tastes, and you can even make the meal interactive by inviting kids to choose their own pepper colors and carve their own expressions.

Find more Halloween and seasonal recipes at Culinary.net.

18199 Jack o Lantern Peppers detail embed1

Jack-o’-Lantern Stuffed Peppers

Recipe adapted from AllRecipes
Prep time: 15 minutes
Cook time: 45 minutes
Servings: 4

  • 1          teaspoon olive oil
  • 1          pound ground turkey
  • 3          cloves garlic, minced
  • 1/2       medium onion, diced
  • 1          teaspoon garlic powder
  • 1          teaspoon cumin
  • 4          large orange bell peppers
  • 1          cup cooked brown rice
  • 1          cup grated sharp cheddar cheese
  • 2          teaspoons kosher salt
  • 1/2       teaspoon ground black pepper
  • cayenne pepper, to taste
  • cups seasoned tomato sauce, warmed
  1. Preheat oven to 400 F and coat 9-by-13-inch baking dish with olive oil.
  2. In skillet, brown ground turkey with minced garlic, onion, garlic powder and cumin until meat is cooked, 4-5 minutes.
  3. With small knife, cut eyes, nose and mouth into flattest side of each pepper to resemble jack-o’-lantern. Cut around seed pods and remove pepper tops, trimming and discarding any seeds from under stems then setting tops aside. Trim white membranes from inside each pepper and shake out seeds. Place peppers in prepared baking dish.
  4. In bowl, combine turkey mixture with cooked rice, cheddar cheese, salt, black pepper and cayenne pepper, to taste.
  5. Divide and stuff mixture into peppers; cover with reserved pepper tops.
  6. Wrap baking dish loosely with aluminum foil and bake until peppers are tender, about 45 minutes.
  7. Spoon about 3 tablespoons warm tomato sauce onto each plate; place stuffed peppers on top. Serve remaining sauce on side.

Photo courtesy of Shutterstock

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Lifestyle

How to Manage Symptoms of Heart Failure

Symptoms of Heart Failure: Managing heart failure is a significant expense to the U.S. healthcare system, costing the nation approximately $40 billion in 2020 and expected to increase to approximately $142 billion a year by 2050. If you (or a loved one) are living with the condition, consider these tips to help manage it.

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How to Manage Symptoms of Heart Failure

How to Manage Symptoms of Heart Failure

(Feature Impact) Americans are facing a growing health challenge, with 1 in 4 adults at risk of heart failure, according to the Heart Failure Society of America. Additionally, approximately 6.7 million U.S. adults who are 20 years old or older are currently living with heart failure, and that number is projected to reach 8.7 million by 2030.

Managing heart failure is a significant expense to the U.S. healthcare system, costing the nation approximately $40 billion in 2020 and expected to increase to approximately $142 billion a year by 2050.

https://stmdailynews.com/beyond-hot-flashes-5-things-women-wish-everyone-knew-about-menopause/

If you (or a loved one) are living with the condition, consider these tips to help manage it.

Adhere to the Treatment and Follow-Up Plan

Ongoing outpatient care is important when managing heart failure. Understand the treatment plan provided by your healthcare team, make diet and lifestyle changes, take medications as directed and keep recommended follow-up appointments.

Pay attention to changes in symptoms and communicate with your healthcare provider if treatment does not seem to be working as expected. If their conditions are left unmanaged, patients can experience a range of heart-failure-related symptoms such as shortness of breath, fatigue, buildup of fluid and more.

Understand Challenges with Diuretic Treatment

Diuretics help the body remove excess fluid and are commonly used to treat swelling, or edema, associated with heart failure. Your provider may try different diuretics, sometimes referred to as “water pills,” to manage your heart failure symptoms. However, intravenous (IV) diuretic therapy may be required for some patients if symptoms continue.

Ask About Treatment Options Before IV Care Is Needed

For some adults, a healthcare provider may consider recommending an at-home, non-oral diuretic option prior to escalating to IV therapy.

For example, ENBUMYST™ (bumetanide nasal spray) is a prescription diuretic used in adults to treat edema associated with congestive heart failure. It’s administered as a nasal spray for short-term use to manage excess fluid with the goal of transitioning to oral diuretic therapy when appropriate.

Talk with your healthcare provider to learn more and visit enbumyst.com. Read the full Prescribing Information and Patient Information.

Photo courtesy of Shutterstock

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Important Safety Information

What is ENBUMYST?
ENBUMYST is a prescription medicine used in adults to treat swelling caused by excess fluid in the body (edema) from congestive heart failure, liver disease, and kidney disease.

What is the most important information I should know about ENBUMYST?

  • ENBUMYST is a diuretic that helps your body remove fluid. Losing too much fluid can cause dehydration, low blood volume, and increase the risk of blood clots. Blood abnormalities may include decreased salts (electrolytes), and increased nitrogen, glucose and uric acid. The risk of these abnormalities is higher in elderly people, those using higher doses, or those who do not get enough electrolytes by mouth.
  • You should not use ENBUMYST if you have severe electrolyte loss. Tell your healthcare provider if you experience unusual thirst; dizziness or lightheadedness; weakness or tiredness; fast heart rate; dry mouth or tongue; sudden pain; redness or swelling in your joints; pain, swelling, redness, or warmth in your leg; shortness of breath or fast breathing; high blood sugar; dark urine; pale, tight, cool or clammy skin; muscle cramps; confusion.

Do not use ENBUMYST if youhave low or no urine production or are allergic to bumetanide or to any of the ingredients in ENBUMYST.

Before using ENBUMYST, tell your healthcare provider if you have low electrolytes, are on a low-salt diet, have diarrhea, diabetes, nasal problems such as a runny or stuffy nose or polyps, a history of nasal injury or surgery, are or plan to become pregnant, are or plan to breastfeed.

Tell your healthcare provider about all the medicines you take, including prescriptions, over-the-counter medicines, vitamins, and herbal supplements.

ENBUMYST may cause serious side effects, such as worsening kidney function and ringing in the ears or hearing loss.

The most common side effects of ENBUMYST include dehydration, headache, muscle cramps, dizziness, low blood pressure, nausea, and abnormal brain functioning with certain liver problems.

These are not all the possible side effects of ENBUMYST. Talk to your healthcare provider for more information.

Call your healthcare provider for medical advice about side effects. You may report side effects to FDA at 1-800-FDA-1088.

US-ENBU-2600110

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financial wellness

Investing in Education: 5 Ways to Prepare Students for the Jobs of Tomorrow

Jobs of Tomorrow: A diploma is still an important milestone, but what matters more than the piece of paper is whether graduates have the knowledge, skills and confidence to take meaningful next steps in pursuing further education or building careers. Students, families, educators, employers and policymakers all have a role to play in cultivating these opportunities.

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Investing in Education: 5 Ways to Prepare Students for the Jobs of Tomorrow

Investing in Education: 5 Ways to Prepare Students for the Jobs of Tomorrow

(Feature Impact) The landscape of modern work is changing rapidly, leaving many uncertain about whether they’re adequately equipped to face the future. Even though America invests roughly $1 trillion in education every year, it’s difficult to know whether that investment is truly preparing young people for what comes next.

“Our education system isn’t evolving quickly enough to prepare our students for the jobs of tomorrow,” said Amit Sevak, CEO of ETS, a global education and talent solutions organization working with more than 30 million students a year to measure learning success and power human progress at every stage of life. “Students only get one chance at an education, and we have a responsibility to understand what’s working, what’s not and where additional support is needed.”

https://stmdailynews.com/preparing-the-next-generation-for-economic-mobility-in-an-ai-driven-world/

A diploma is still an important milestone, but what matters more than the piece of paper is whether graduates have the knowledge, skills and confidence to take meaningful next steps in pursuing further education or building careers. Students, families, educators, employers and policymakers all have a role to play in cultivating these opportunities.

Start the Conversation Early

Success isn’t a single path anymore, so young people may benefit from thinking outside the traditional pipeline of high school to college to a good job to retirement. By prompting early conversations, parents can help their children begin sorting through their options well in advance. Encourage dinner table talks about favorite school subjects, what kind of work seems interesting and alternative pathways to build careers. The goal isn’t necessarily to choose a life track immediately – just to start exploring ideas before the time arrives to lock in a decision.

Learn to Work with AI

In the age of AI, there’s a balance to be found between fully embracing or avoiding it. Parents and educators can encourage thoughtful, responsible use of the AI tools reshaping modern workplaces – without sanctioning them as a way to get out of doing homework. Students should think critically about both the uses and limitations of AI, learning how these systems work but still recognizing when human judgment matters.

Get Real-World Experience Before Graduation

Textbooks and classrooms can teach a lot, but some of the most valuable lessons come from the real world. Summer jobs, internships, volunteering, co-op programs, job shadowing or small-scale forays into entrepreneurship can help kids discover where their talents and passions fit. It’s also a chance to develop the soft skills that make great employees, like being punctual, working well with others and adapting to new situations.

Build Human Skills

There are certain abilities technology just can’t replace, making them vital pieces of future-proof training. Strong communication, teamwork mindsets, critical thinking skills, civic reasoning and empathy translate well to many careers. Rather than focusing strictly on academics, teachers can shift lesson plans to encourage growth in these areas. Specialized hands-on talents and trades are also more insulated from technological disruptions.

Measure Progress Beyond Grades

Grades and test scores don’t tell the whole story about career readiness, yet they’re often treated as the only metric that matters in educational success. Policymakers have the opportunity to change how schools measure student progress, including by trading the one-size-fits-all rubrics for more personalized assessments that demonstrate proficiency in more comprehensive ways. Education is on the ballot this election season, so ask your local and state elected leaders about whether today’s graduates are ready to face the future.

For information about a system that gives students, educators and employers clear evidence that learning is leading to opportunity, visit ETS.org.

Photos courtesy of Shutterstock

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