U.S. forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are expecting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms, and 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes. But, how do they know what’s likely to happen months in the future? I’m an atmospheric scientist who studies extreme weather. Let’s take a look at what Atlantic hurricane forecasts are based on and why those forecasts can shift during the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
What goes into a seasonal forecast
Think of the preseason hurricane forecast as the 30,000-foot view: It can’t predict if or when a storm will hit a particular location, but it can offer insight into how many storms are likely to form throughout the entire Atlantic, and how active the season overall might be. These outlooks rely heavily on two large-scale climate factors. The first is the sea surface temperature in areas where tropical cyclones tend to form and grow. Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. So when the Atlantic is unusually warm, as it has been in recent years, it provides more fuel for storms to form and intensify.Once water temperatures are 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius), hurricanes can form. Most of the Gulf was above that by late May 2025.NOAA/NESDIS The second key ingredient that meteorologists have their eye on is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which forecasters refer to as ENSO. ENSO is a climate cycle that shifts every few years between three main phases: El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral space that lives somewhere in between. During El Niño, winds over the Atlantic high up in the troposphere – roughly 25,000 to 40,000 feet – strengthen and can disrupt storms and hurricanes. La Niña, on the other hand, tends to reduce these winds, making it easier for storms to form and grow. When you look over the historical hurricane record, La Niña years have tended to be busier than their El Niño counterparts, as we saw from 2020 through 2023. We’re in the neutral phase as the 2025 hurricane season begins, and probably will be for at least a few more months. That means upper-level winds aren’t particularly hostile to hurricanes, but they’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet either. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are running warmer than the 30-year average, but not quite at the record-breaking levels seen in some recent seasons. Taken together, these conditions point to a moderately above-average hurricane season. It’s important to emphasize that these factors merely load the dice, tilting the odds toward more or fewer storms, but not guaranteeing an outcome. A host of other variables influence whether a storm actually forms, how strong it becomes, and whether it ever threatens land.
The smaller influences forecasters can’t see yet
Once hurricane season is underway, forecasters start paying close attention to shorter-term influences. These subseasonal factors evolve quickly enough that they don’t shape the entire season. However, they can noticeably raise or lower the chances for storms developing in the coming two to four weeks. One factor is dust lofted from the Sahara Desert by strong winds and carried from east to west across the Atlantic. These dust plumes tend to suppress hurricanes by drying out the atmosphere and reducing sunlight that reaches the ocean surface. Dust outbreaks are next-to-impossible to predict months in advance, but satellite observations of growing plumes can give forecasters a heads-up a couple weeks before the dust reaches the primary hurricane development region off the coast of Africa.Dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert can tamp down hurricane activities by shading the ocean over the main development region for hurricanes and drying out the atmosphere, just off the African coast. This plume spread over 2,000 miles in June 2020.NASA Another key ingredient that doesn’t go into seasonal forecasts but becomes important during the season are African easterly waves. These “waves” are clusters of thunderstorms that roll off the West African coast, tracking from east to west across the ocean. Most major storms in the Atlantic basin, especially in the peak months of August and September, can trace their origins back to one of these waves. Forecasters monitor strong waves as they begin their westward journey across the Atlantic, knowing they can provide some insight about potential risks to U.S. interests one to two weeks in advance. Also in this subseasonal mix is the Madden–Julian Oscillation. The MJO is a wave-like pulse of atmospheric activity that moves slowly around the tropics every 30 to 60 days. When the MJO is active over the Atlantic, it enhances the formation of thunderstorms associated with hurricanes. In its suppressed phase, storm activity tends to die down. The MJO doesn’t guarantee storms – or a lack of them – but it turns up or down the odds. Its phase and position can be tracked two or three weeks in advance. Lastly, forecasters will talk about the Loop Current, a deep river of warm water that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. When storms pass over the Loop Current or its warm eddies, they can rapidly intensify because they are drawing energy from not just the warm surface water but from warm water that’s tens of meters deep. The Loop Current has helped power several historic Gulf storms, including Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Ida in 2021.The Loop Current stretched well into the Gulf in May 2022. The scale, in meters, shows the maximum depth at which temperatures were 78 F (26 C) or greater.Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY-ND But the Loop Current is always shifting. Its strength and location in early summer may look very different by late August or September. Combined, these subseasonal signals help forecasters fine-tune their outlooks as the season unfolds.
Where hurricanes form shifts over the months
Where storms are most likely to form and make landfall also changes as the pages of the calendar turn. In early summer, the Gulf of Mexico warms up faster than the open Atlantic, making it a notable hotspot for early-season tropical storm development, especially in June and July. The Texas coast, Louisiana, and the Florida Panhandle often face a higher early-season risk than locations along the Eastern seaboard.These are generally the busiest areas during each month of hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t make landfall elsewhere.NOAA By August and September, the season reaches its peak. This is when those waves moving off the coast of Africa become a primary source of storm activity. These long-track storms are sometimes called “Cape Verde hurricanes” because they originate near the Cape Verde Islands off the African coast. While many stay over open water, others can gather steam and track toward the Caribbean, Florida or the Carolinas. Later in the hurricane season, storms are more likely to form in the western Atlantic or Caribbean, where waters are still warm and upper-level winds remain favorable. These late-season systems have a higher probability of following atypical paths, as Sandy did in 2012 when it struck the New York City region and Milton did in 2024 before making landfall in Florida. At the end of the day, the safest way to think about hurricane season is this: If you live along the coast, don’t let your guard down. Areas susceptible to hurricanes are never totally immune from hurricanes, and it only takes one to make it a dangerous – and unforgettable – season. Colin Zarzycki, Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climate Dynamics, Penn State This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Legendary martial artist and actor Chuck Norris has died at the age of 86, according to statements released by his family on Friday.
Norris reportedly passed away peacefully while surrounded by loved ones. The news comes shortly after reports surfaced that he had been hospitalized in Hawaii following a medical emergency. Details regarding the cause of death have not yet been publicly disclosed.
Best known for his role in the long-running television series Walker, Texas Ranger, Norris became a global icon through his martial arts expertise and action film career. His influence extended beyond Hollywood, shaping pop culture and inspiring generations of fans worldwide.
Over a career spanning decades, Norris starred in numerous action films and television projects, building a reputation as one of the most recognizable figures in the genre.
This is a developing story. STM Daily News will continue to provide updates as more information becomes available.
How extraterrestrial tales of aliens gain traction
The narrative explores humanity’s intrigue with extraterrestrial entities, juxtaposing evolutionary processes with claims of alien interventions, ultimately emphasizing the need for scientific evidence over fantastical stories. Aliens!
One night, upon returning to the cave that his tribe calls home, the monkey-humanoid Moon-Watcher finds a strange crystal object, a kind of monolith that fascinates him at first, but then quickly loses his interest when he discovers that it is not edible. Soon after, the true purpose of the monolith is revealed to be none other than penetrating the minds of our ancestors to induce new abilities that, over time, will cause the development of an intelligence capable of creating new technology.
Many readers will recognise this scene from the novel 2001, A Space Odyssey, by Arthur C. Clarke, and the film of the same name, directed by Stanley Kubrick. It almost goes without saying that the crystal monolith in question is the work of an extraterrestrial civilisation that observes life on other planets and “experiments” on them to encourage the development of intelligence in as many parts of the cosmos as possible.
Seeking simple answers to complex questions
Understanding how we, as a species, came to be intelligent is one of the great enigmas of evolutionary study. Small mutations, followed by a process of natural selection to choose the most advantageous, seems too slow a process for structures as complex as the human nervous system or brain to emerge. It is this very complexity that allows millions of neurons to communicate with each other, resulting in the emergence of qualities such as the ability to respond voluntarily to environmental stimuli, or to ask questions about the very nature of humankind and the universe.
This has always been the case, in all human cultures. A classic example would be attributing atmospheric events – thunder, lightning, floods – to the wrath of God. These ideas came about before humans had ever left the ground, so it is no surprise that we turned our eyes even higher – to extraterrestrials – to explain other phenomena that we could only observe once travelling at high altitudes became part of our daily lives.
The allure of the unknown
The possibility that we might have been visited by beings from other worlds has always fascinated us. The element of mystery, of the unknown, only makes it more interesting.
Any phenomenon is made all the more enticing when it seems it is being covered up or hidden for secretive reasons. The attractiveness of conspiracies often leads people towards ideas which have no scientific basis, such as the belief that the Earth is flat, that humans never set foot on the Moon, or that vaccines can control our behaviour.
Even though these ideas have repeatedly been shown to be untrue, their rapid dissemination through social media, using simple, blunt language that appeals to emotion over logic, makes them very powerful weapons.
The supposed “proof” of alien visits to our planet ranges from specific Bible passages to ancient stone carvings portraying creatures or objects that may appear to be aliens or spacecraft. The latter often take the form of flying saucers.
However, we cannot forget that humans have always created imaginary creatures that resemble them and attributed them with magical powers. When imagining Gods, humans have given them a human appearance, and almost always imagined them as living in the sky.
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When we look at these representations through modern eyes, we associate them with extraterrestrial beings or structures, when in fact they could be referring to a range of different things.
What we can be certain of is that the more we explore our skies, the more likely it is that we will encounter phenomena that we cannot explain. However, this does not mean that they are extraterrestrial. Past experience has shown us that most of these events can be attributed to optical illusions, spy or weather balloons, space junk, or even satellites that we ourselves have made.
In Spain, UFOs were a hot topic between the 1960s and the 1980s. In this era, everyone knew someone who was convinced that they had seen a UFO. This even reached the point where an exoplanet, called Ummo, was made up. It was populated by a more advanced civilisation than ours who made contact with people on Earth. In the letters these aliens supposedly sent, the ‘Ummites’ explained concepts such as genetics and cell structure.
The Ummo hoax was even linked to the creation of a paedophile ring, which should make us reflect on the harmful consequences that the spread of fabricated news stories can have.
Can we deny the possibility that intelligent alien civilisations exist?
The answer, of course, is no. The universe is immense, and it is more than likely that circumstances similar to those which led to the appearance of life on Earth have been repeated on other planets. But there is a huge distance (literally and figuratively) between acknowledging the existence of these creatures and considering the possibility that they might have visited us.
Exoplanets, also known as extrasolar planets, are extremely far away, and we are limited by the speed of light which, as proven by Einstein, is the maximum possible speed at which anything can travel. Therefore, the journey to even a “nearby” exoplanet would take thousands of years. Maybe a civilisation more advanced than ours could find a way to do it faster, but not to the point of it being something easy or commonplace.
In any case, if the remains of alien life or spacecraft are stored away somewhere, why are they not being shown to us? Scientists would jump at the chance to analyse this organic matter to find out how it is structured, how it metabolises energy, or what molecules it uses to store genetic information.
Until there is proof, this is not a question of science, but rather, of stories. Stories can be very entertaining, but these kinds of stories do not help us to build a more accurate or helpful view of the world.
The science section of our news blog STM Daily News provides readers with captivating and up-to-date information on the latest scientific discoveries, breakthroughs, and innovations across various fields. We offer engaging and accessible content, ensuring that readers with different levels of scientific knowledge can stay informed. Whether it’s exploring advancements in medicine, astronomy, technology, or environmental sciences, our science section strives to shed light on the intriguing world of scientific exploration and its profound impact on our daily lives. From thought-provoking articles to informative interviews with experts in the field, STM Daily News Science offers a harmonious blend of factual reporting, analysis, and exploration, making it a go-to source for science enthusiasts and curious minds alike. https://stmdailynews.com/category/science/
Little Woodrow’s Launches 2026 Turtle Racing Season With ‘TurtleVerse’ Theme
Little Woodrow’s has launched its 2026 turtle racing season with a new TurtleVerse theme, bringing weekly Thursday night races, themed turtle competitors and a new loyalty program to locations across Texas.
Little Woodrow’s Opens 2026 Turtle Racing Season Across Texas
Little Woodrow’s is bringing back one of its most recognizable Thursday night traditions with the launch of its 2026 turtle racing season, this year under a new retro sci-fi-inspired theme called TurtleVerse. The season officially began March 5 and runs weekly through Nov. 19 at participating locations in Houston, San Antonio, Lubbock, Austin and, later this spring, Frisco.
The long-running event, which started in Midtown Houston nearly two decades ago, has grown into a signature piece of the Texas neighborhood bar chain’s identity. This year’s TurtleVerse concept adds a comic-book-style multiverse angle to the races, pairing the usual crowd energy with themed branding and a lineup of turtles carrying names like Turtle Swift, Shellvester Stallone and Timothée Shellamet.
Woody’s Brands President Ray Risley said the company wanted to build on one of Little Woodrow’s most popular traditions by leaning into both nostalgia and humor. In addition to the themed races, the company is also introducing a new Turtle Journey loyalty program, allowing guests to check in, earn points and redeem rewards throughout the season.
Little Woodrow’s said races begin at 7 or 8 p.m., depending on location. Fans can find schedules, turtle bios and loyalty program details at Little Woodrow’s website.
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