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Trump’s ‘golden age’ economic message undercut by his desire for much lower interest rates – which typically signal a weak jobs market

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President Donald Trump has said he believes the U.S. economy has entered a ‘golden age’ on his watch.
President Donald Trump has said he believes the U.S. economy has entered a ‘golden age’ on his watch. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

Joshua Stillwagon, Babson College

President Donald Trump seems to want to have it both ways on the U.S. economy.

On the one hand, he recently said the economy is in its “golden age” and referred to the U.S. as the “hottest country anywhere in the world.”

Yet at the same time, he has outright demanded that the Federal Reserve sharply slash interest rates to fuel economic activity. And his recently handpicked governor, Stephen Miran, has led the charge in pushing for a bigger cut than preferred by his new colleagues at the Fed.

When an economy is strong, central banks typically don’t cut interest rates and may even raise them to avoid spurring inflation. And so to support his argument for large cuts, Miran has played up “downside risks” to the economy and a weakening labor market, contrasting with Trump’s talk of a “golden age.”

Trump and Miran also seem to be ignoring the problem of inflation, which the president has said “has been defeated” and Miran considers close enough to the Fed’s target of 2%. Yet, inflation remains high and has been picking back up in recent months – one of the core reasons the Fed has taken a gradual approach to lowering interest rates.

I’m a macroeconomist, which means I study big-picture factors affecting an economy, such as interest rates.

It’s well known that lower rates spur faster growth, and of course all presidents want a stronger economy on their watch. But the Fed’s job when it sets interest rates is to deal with whatever reality the data shows – and make decisions accordingly.

Is the economy hot or not?

In the simplest terms, the Fed raises interest rates when the economy is “hot,” or inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, and lowers them when there are concerns about unemployment.

At its most recent meeting, in September, the Fed lowered rates a quarter of a point, citing slowing jobs growth, and increased economic uncertainty. Trump nominee Miran was the only one of the 12 members of the Fed’s policy-setting committee to instead vote for a more aggressive half-point cut.

The only credible rationale for that large of an interest rate cut, in the face of still-high inflation, is by believing the labor market is incredibly weak. According to the Fed’s preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures index, inflation has been accelerating all summer and was 2.7% at the end of August, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

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There’s no doubt jobs growth has slowed considerably in recent months, but enough to completely ignore the risk of driving inflation higher? At this point at least, the Fed doesn’t think so.

And if the economy were in fact running hot, as the president claims, the Fed would have little choice but to keep rates flat or raise them, especially given elevated inflation.

a man in a suit speaks in front of a microphone with a few people sitting in the background
Stephen Miran, who was recently nominated to the Federal Open Market Committee, has been pushing for much larger rate cuts than his colleagues. AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib

Risks of following political whims

This situation gets at the heart of why central bank independence matters.

Trump’s efforts to influence the Federal Reserve have not been subtle and break with Congress’ intention to insulate the Fed from political manipulation. Besides pressing for big rate cuts, he has tried to fire a member of the Board of Governors over questionable allegations and mused about removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The risks of following the wishes of a president in the face of what the data shows were starkly demonstrated in 2021, when Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fired the head of the country’s central bank. The central banker was pushing rates higher to tame inflation, which was at about 20%, but Erdogan demanded they be lowered. In response, Turkey’s lira plunged to record lows and inflation soared to over 70% in 2022.

Something similar could happen in the U.S. if Trump continues down the same path of meddling with the Fed. As a sign of how much Wall Street worries about this risk, a recent study estimated that if Trump followed through on his threat to fire Powell, the stock market could lose an estimated US$1 trillion as a result.

That’s because the Fed’s credibility rests on its ability to make decisions driven by economic evidence, not political expedience. That independence means policymakers must weigh data on inflation, jobs and growth rather than election cycles or partisan demands.

Justifying deeper rate cuts

Looking ahead to the Fed’s next meeting Oct. 28-29, policymakers face a delicate balancing act. With inflation still running above target and signs of slowing jobs growth, it needs to lower rates enough to prevent a downturn but not so low that inflation spirals out of control.

Traders are putting near-100% odds of two more quarter-point cuts this year, one on Oct. 29 and another in December. This would bring the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025, down from 4%-4.25% now.

Based on Miran’s own interest rate projections, he’s likely to again push for a larger cut of a half-point or more at both meetings, as he believes the Fed’s benchmark rate should be below 3% by the end of the year.

To me, as an economist, the only way a Fed acting independently could reasonably justify such a significant cut in rates in the next few months is if the unemployment rate begins rising steadily, with the economy clearly at risk of slipping into a recession.

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Joshua Stillwagon, Associate Professor of Economics, Babson College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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3 Ways You Can Help Tackle Hunger and Strengthen Communities This Holiday Season

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You Can Help Tackle Hunger

3 Ways You Can Help Tackle Hunger and Strengthen Communities This Holiday Season

(Family Features) The holiday season is often a time of joy, connection and celebration. For millions of families across the country, however, it is also a season of uncertainty, wondering how to put food on the table or meet other essential needs. According to the USDA, more than 47.4 million people in the United States experience food insecurity each year. That’s why, each holiday season, thousands of Charles Schwab employees come together to fight hunger and strengthen the communities where they live and work. Through employee meal-packing events and nonprofit grants, volunteers and partners help families access nutritious meals and vital support during the holidays and beyond. “As we gather with loved ones this season, it’s important to remember that not all of our neighbors have that security,” said Kristine Dixon, managing director of Charles Schwab Community Affairs. “By working side-by-side with local hunger relief organizations, we’re helping ensure more families can share in the joy of a holiday meal and the peace of knowing they are supported.” As you prepare for the holidays, here are a few ways you can help address hunger relief and support your neighbors. Donate to a Local Food Bank Food banks and pantries are at the heart of efforts to make nutritious food accessible for all. Inflation and rising costs of living have stretched budgets thin, making it harder for families to afford groceries. Nonperishable donations such as canned goods, pasta and rice are always in high demand. Monetary donations often go even further, giving food banks the ability to purchase exactly what is needed most. Volunteer Your Time The gift of time is just as valuable as food donations. Food banks and hunger relief nonprofits rely on volunteers to sort, pack and distribute meals. Even a few hours can make a meaningful difference, adding up to thousands of volunteer hours to help nonprofits meet urgent needs during the holiday season and year-round. Support Community Partnerships No single organization can solve hunger alone. Collective action from neighbors, companies, nonprofits and others is what creates lasting impact. This year, Schwab employees will join forces with partners like Harvest Pack to pack more than 1 million nutritious meals for families across the country. Supporting these types of efforts, whether through donations, volunteering or spreading awareness, can expand the impact. Hunger is about more than food; it’s about stability and opportunity. By giving, volunteering and partnering with organizations that serve families in need, you can make the holiday season brighter for millions of Americans. Learn more at aboutschwab.com/season-of-giving.   Photo courtesy of Shutterstock collect?v=1&tid=UA 482330 7&cid=1955551e 1975 5e52 0cdb 8516071094cd&sc=start&t=pageview&dl=http%3A%2F%2Ftrack.familyfeatures SOURCE: Charles Schwab

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High Demand Marks “Veggies for Veterans” Event Amid SNAP Delays

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National 211 hotline calls for food assistance quadrupled in a matter of days, a magnitude typically seen during disasters

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National 211 hotline calls for food assistance quadrupled in a matter of days, a magnitude typically seen during disasters
Sharp spikes in calls for food assistance are rare outside of natural disasters. AP Photo/Eric Gay

National 211 hotline calls for food assistance quadrupled in a matter of days, a magnitude typically seen during disasters

Matthew W. Kreuter, Washington University in St. Louis and Rachel Garg, Washington University in St. Louis Between January and mid-October 2025, calls to local 211 helplines from people seeking food pantries in their community held steady at nearly 1,000 calls per day. But as the government shutdown entered its fourth week in late October, states began to warn residents that Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, sometimes known as food stamps, would likely be affected. Nearly 42 million Americans receive SNAP benefits each month. Over the next several days, calls to 211 from people seeking food pantries doubled to over 2,200 per day. Then on Oct. 26, the Trump administration announced that SNAP benefits would not be arriving as scheduled in November. The next day, food pantry calls skyrocketed to 3,324. The following day, calls reached 3,870. By Wednesday, it was 4,214. We are public health scientists specializing in health communication and unmet social needs. We and our colleagues have been working closely with the 211 network of helplines across the U.S. for 18 years. Excluding disasters, sudden surges of this magnitude in requests for food or any other need are rare at 211s, and can signal both public worry and need, as happened in the first weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.

What is 211?

Like 911 for emergencies, 211 is a national three-digit dialing code, launched in 2000, that connects callers to information specialists at the nearest local 211 helpline. Those specialists listen to callers’ needs and provide them with referrals to health and social service providers near them that may be able to help. Every call to 211 is classified by the need of the caller, such as shelter, rent, utilities or food – each of which has its own code. Callers are disproportionately women, most of whom have children or teens living in their homes. Most don’t make enough money to make ends meet. They call 211 seeking help paying rent or utility bills, getting food to feed their family, or securing household necessities like a winter coat for a child, or a mattress. The hotline does not solve these problems for callers, but 211 information specialists use the most current local information available to refer callers to service agencies that are most likely to have resources to help. The 211 network is the closest thing the U.S. has to a real-time surveillance system of the needs of low-income Americans. There are roughly 200 state and local 211s in the U.S., and on an average day they will collectively field between 35,000 and 40,000 requests for help. Each request is coded using a taxonomy of over 10,000 need types, is time- and date-stamped, and is linked to the caller’s ZIP code. In addition to phone calls received by their helplines, 211s increasingly track requests they receive online, through their websites. The national network of 211s covers all 50 states and 99% of the U.S. population. It’s encouraging to us that with each passing year of giving talks and lectures about 211, more and more audience members raise their hands when asked if they’ve ever heard of 211. But it’s far from 100%. If you are one of those with your hand down, here’s what you need to know.
Food banks around the country are having trouble keeping their shelves stocked.

Gaining local insights

Our team aims to deploy the latest methods from data science, predictive analytics and artificial intelligence to detect trends in critical needs sooner and at a more localized level, increasing the speed and efficiency of getting needed help to local community members. Our research has described the needs of callers who reach out to 211, community capacity to respond to callers’ needs, the ability of 211 to detect rapid changes in community needs, and the benefits of integrating health referrals into 211s. When we saw food requests rising sharply in late October, we reached out to local leaders at 211 call centers to get insights into what they were hearing from callers. Robin Pokojski, vice president of 211 and community partnerships at United Way of Greater St. Louis, reported that with all the uncertainty around SNAP benefits, callers were initially “anticipating” a need for food pantries. Tiffany Olson, who directs essential services at Crisis Connections and its 211 call center in Washington state, shared that even callers who rely heavily on their SNAP benefits sometimes need to use food banks as a supplement. Those callers know that pivoting to rely solely on food banks probably won’t be enough to meet their food needs in full. They realize that food pantries and food banks will be more heavily burdened if SNAP benefits are unavailable.

Increasing the impact of 211 data

The trove of daily data on the needs of U.S. callers to 211 at the ZIP code level is unparalleled. Yet for years it was virtually invisible to anyone who didn’t work at a 211 hotline. Even for people who work and volunteer within the 211 system, formal reporting on caller needs within a community was minimal, such as a one-page annual summary. That changed in 2013. Working with 211s across the country, our team created 211 Counts, a collection of user-friendly, public-facing data dashboards for local 211s across the U.S. The dashboards allow users to explore the top needs in their community, see which neighborhoods are affected most and understand how needs are changing over time. The data can be sorted by legislative districts, school districts and counties to make the findings more relevant to different audiences. Data on 211 requests are updated each night. Now in its 12th year, 211 Counts includes data on over 90 million requests from 211 callers in all or parts of 44 states. The local dashboards have been visited millions of times.

211 as an early-warning system

This is not the first time data collected through 211 hotlines has detected early signs of trouble for some Americans. Just weeks ago, we found that calls from people seeking assistance making car payments have been increasing steadily for five months, with daily calls peaking in October, at nearly twice the rate of May 2025. Before that, 211s were months ahead of news reporting in seeing public distress associated with the 2022 baby formula shortage, the 2016 Flint water crisis and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis. When requests for major needs like food increase three- to fourfold overnight, every local 211 is likely to register this abrupt change. But when less frequent needs, such as car payment assistance, creep up slowly, with an extra call here and there over several months, it’s unlikely that any local 211 hotline would notice. That’s when the advantages of big data are greatest. By combining caller needs from 211s across the country, patterns emerge that would otherwise be missed. New data science tools are rapidly improving the speed and accuracy of detecting slight changes. When community and national leaders are made aware of potential rising threats, those threats can be tracked more closely and responses prepared. It’s easy to lose sight of the fact that each data point is a hungry child or a worried parent. Hotlines and food banks and food pantries need support in this moment to feed people. But most local safety net systems struggle to meet their community’s needs all the time. Data that documents the magnitude of need won’t fix the scarcity of local assistance, but it can help guide communities in allocating limited resources. Matthew W. Kreuter, Kahn Family Professor of Public Health, Washington University in St. Louis and Rachel Garg, Assistant Professor of Public Health, Washington University in St. Louis This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.

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Senate Advances Deal to End Shutdown as ACA Subsidy Debate Intensifies

ACA Subsidy Question: Eight Senate Democrats broke ranks to help end the U.S. government shutdown — progressives are calling for leadership change while the fate of the ACA premium-subsidies now hangs in the balance.

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Last Updated on November 10, 2025 by Daily News StaffACA Subsidy Debate

Senate Advances Deal to End Shutdown as ACA Subsidy Debate Intensifies

The recent vote in the Senate to advance a stop-gap spending bill to reopen the government marks a turning point — but also a source of deep tension within the Democratic Party. Eight Senate Democrats broke with their caucus and joined Republicans, enabling the legislation to move forward. Their defection has prompted progressive backlash and raised bigger questions about the fate of ACA premium tax-credits, and whether new leadership in the Democratic Senate ranks is imminent.

The Vote That Shook the Caucus

On November 9–10, 2025, the Senate advanced a funding measure that would end the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history. Eight Democrats (and one independent who caucuses with Democrats) voted with Republicans to get to the 60-vote threshold required under Senate rules. 

Those lawmakers include:

  • Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev)

  • Dick Durbin (D-Ill)

  • John Fetterman (D-Pa)

  • Maggie Hassan (D-N.H)

  • Tim Kaine (D-Va)

  • Angus King (I-Me)

  • Jacky Rosen (D-Nev)

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H) 

Their main justification: the shutdown was inflicting too much damage on federal workers, food-aid recipients, and other Americans, and this was the best viable route to reopening the government. 

Progressive Outrage and Leadership Questions

Progressive Democrats didn’t buy the justification. They argue that by voting to reopen the government without securing a guaranteed extension of the ACA subsidies, these eight senators essentially abandoned a major Democratic policy fight. Many called it a betrayal of working-class Americans who depend on those subsidies. 

The vote has also triggered renewed calls for a shake-up in Democratic Senate leadership. Critics of Chuck Schumer argue that under his leadership the party lacked leverage and strategic clarity, allowing moderate-leaning Democrats to break away. Some are publicly saying: if the leader cannot deliver on major priorities like healthcare, why continue in position? 

What This Means for the ACA Subsidies

The subsidies at stake are premium tax credits under the ACA that help millions of Americans afford health insurance. With those credits set to expire at the end of the year, the question becomes: will the government extend them, and if so under what terms?

Here are key points:

  • The deal that ended the shutdown did not include the guaranteed extension of those subsidies. Instead, it included only a promise of a vote later (in December) to address the subsidy extension. 

  • That promise is weak in the eyes of many Democrats. There is no guarantee the vote will pass in December — Republicans oppose extension without major reforms, and it isn’t clear whether the House will follow. 

  • If the subsidies are not extended, millions of Americans could see their insurance premiums rise significantly for 2026 — a politically explosive outcome especially for the Democrats heading into mid-terms. 

  • On the flip side, if Democrats regain stronger negotiating power or leadership changes, there may still be hope for a more robust extension or even permanent fix — but that is uncertain and depends on internal party cohesion and bargaining leverage.

The Bigger Picture & Stakes Ahead

The broadcast-surface story is the shutdown. But below the surface are several consequential dynamics:

  • The eight senators’ decision signals that moderate members of the party are willing to prioritize ending the shutdown rather than extract full concessions on healthcare. That may embolden similar splits in other policy fights.

  • Progressive momentum within the party is rising — their anger over the subsidy gambit may feed leadership change, a firmer stance in 2026 campaigns, and internal challenges to the old guard.

  • For consumers and voters, the health-insurance premium question is no abstraction: if subsidies lapse, premiums will spike, especially for moderate-income households. That economic pain can shift electoral dynamics.

  • For the Democrats’ larger messaging, the risk is an identity crisis: if the party is seen as backing away from core promises (like healthcare affordability), it may affect voter trust and turnout.

  • For the policy, even if a vote occurs in December, the fix may be short-term rather than long-term, which leaves the cycle vulnerable to future cliffs unless structural reforms are enacted.

The Wrap Up (For now)

In short: the shutdown deal unlocked relief in the short run, but at the potential cost of longer-term healthcare policy gains. The eight Democrats who crossed the line may be lauded by some for pragmatism, but criticized by many for ceding leverage and failing to protect vital subsidies. Meanwhile, the fight over who leads the party and how bold it remains in 2026 is very much alive.

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With the December vote looming, all eyes will be on whether the promise of action on ACA premium credits turns into a reality — or whether the surprise leadership shifts and policy limbo become the new status quo.

Sources

STM Daily News will continue monitoring developments related to the Senate’s shutdown deal, Affordable Care Act subsidy discussions, and any forthcoming leadership responses. Updates will be added as new details emerge.

STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.

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