Business and Finance
Economics expert explains how consumer price reports show ‘inflation is not done yet’
The statistics from these reports have economists predicting that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to get inflation under control.
Expectations that inflation has eased fueled recent stock market gains, but results from two major price-tracking indexes came in higher than expected, dousing that optimism with cold water. The statistics from these reports have economists predicting that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to get inflation under control.
“The latest figures underscore the risks of persistently high inflation. Much of the easing that was celebrated at the end of last year has been erased,” said David Bieri, an economics professor for Virginia Tech’s School of Public and International Affairs. He answered a few questions about the persistence of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reverse it.
Q: What is the difference between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)?
“The CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. This basket includes commonly purchased items such as food, housing, clothing, transportation, and medical care. The rate of inflation (or deflation) is then inferred by comparing the price of this basket to a base period. The PCE is the one used by the Federal Reserve. Unlike the CPI, the PCE measures not just goods and services for urban consumers, but the prices of all goods and services purchased by households. While the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods and services, the PCE uses a changing basket of goods and services that reflects consumers’ evolving spending patterns. Also, the PCE incorporates data on the quality of goods and services.”
Q: What can be deduced about inflation and the economy from these new statistics?
“Different components of the indexes react to different influences of the economic process, and they also do so at different speeds, or as economists like to say, with different lags. For example, fuel and gas prices react with very little delay and if the price of crude oil goes up, it does not take long for these effects to show up. But this is not the case for other important components. Quite a bit of the recent uptick in inflation has to do with the fact that it has taken so long for the post-COVID related upswing in housing to show up in the data. As for the most recent PCE numbers, these were unexpected and point in the direction of more entrenched inflation. In other words, inflation is not done yet.”
Q: What do these results indicate about the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation?
“The Fed has to be patient. If we take the image of interest rates working like a brake pedal, the Fed is driving a car on a windy road with a blacked-out windscreen and when it brakes, it can only guess how soon the car — that is, the economy — will slow down, let alone by how much and when the next bend will be. However, the Fed has one key trick up its sleeve: unlike the hapless driver of our car, the Fed can influence how many bends in the road might show up in the future. It does this by something that we call ‘forward guidance,’ which is a wonky term for how the Fed’s attempts influence consumer and market expectations of consumers and market participants. Essentially the Fed is saying that if we stop believing there will be inflation in the future, there actually won’t be any.”
About Bieri
David Bieri is an associate professor of urban affairs in the School of Public and International Affairs and an associate professor of economics. He also holds an appointment in the Global Forum on Urban and Regional Resilience. His teaching interests are at the intersection of public finance, monetary theory, and history of economic thought. He has held various senior positions at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Prior to his work in central banking, he worked in investment banking in London and Zurich. View Bieri’s full bio.
Source: Virginia Tech
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College Life
Campus diversity is becoming difficult to measure as students keep their race and ethnicity hidden on college applications
When the Supreme Court struck down race-based admissions at American colleges and universities just over a year ago, many predicted U.S. campuses would become much less diverse. But in part due to students who decide not to disclose their race or ethnicity, coupled with universities’ selective use of statistics, it is not clear how much the decision has affected diversity on campus.
As higher education institutions begin reporting the racial makeup of the class of 2028 – the first to be affected by the 2023 decision – the data is hard to interpret, confusing and inconclusive.
As a sociologist who has studied how institutions of higher education collect and report data on race and ethnicity, I have identified some factors that contribute to this lack of clarity.
Students don’t identify with choices given
Some students may not select a racial or ethnic category because they don’t believe any of the categories really fit. For example, before multiracial students could select “one or more,” an option that became widely available in 2010, they were more likely to decline to identify their race or ethnicity. Some even boycotted checkboxes entirely.
Other students don’t view their race as important: 67% of the students who choose “race and ethnicity unknown” are white. Of these students, 33% say race and ethnicity are not a relevant part of their identity, a researcher found in 2008.
The number of students who don’t respond to questions about race or ethnicity – and are listed in the “race unknown” category – is increasing. At Harvard University, for example, the percentage of “race-unknown” undergrad students doubled from 2023 to 2024.
As the number of “race unknown” students grows, it not only becomes harder to determine a student body’s ethnic and racial diversity but also the impact of the ban on race-conscious admissions.
Fearing discrimination, students don’t disclose race
Some students believe their race or ethnicity will harm their chances of admission.
This is particularly true at many selective institutions, which have higher nonresponse rates than less selective institutions, about 4% compared with 1% to 2%.
My research shows that students are even more likely to pass on identifying race or ethnicity at selective law schools, where race and ethnicity could be used among a variety of criteria for admissions before the Supreme Court ruled against that practice. An average of 8% of students at those schools chose not to identify, compared with 4% at less selective law schools.
‘We’re very diverse’: University decisions distort statistics
What a university chooses to report will also affect the student body demographic data the public sees. Harvard, for example, does not report its proportion of white students.
Some institutions use statistics strategically to appear more diverse than they are. These strategies include counting multiracial students multiple times – once for each race selected – or including international students as a separate category in demographic pie charts. The greater the number of different-colored slices on the chart, the more demographically “diverse” an institution appears to be.
Impact of Supreme Court ruling: Clearer picture coming soon
While universities may not all report their student demographics the same way in their own materials, they all have to report it the same way to the federal government – namely, to its Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System, better known as IPEDS. The next IPEDS report on characteristics for the 2024 enrollment class is expected to be released in spring 2025. Once that data is available, a better picture of how the Supreme Court’s decision has affected diversity in college enrollment should emerge.
That clearer picture might not last long. In 2027, the federal government will require colleges and universities to make changes to how they report student race and ethnicity. Among the changes is the addition of a Middle Eastern and North African category. Under the current standard, Middle Eastern and North African students are counted as white. As a result, white enrollment at some colleges and universities will appear to decline after 2027.
The new standards will also change the way universities treat Hispanic or Latino ethnicity on enrollment forms. Today, if students self-identify as Hispanic and white, they will be categorized as Hispanic. If students select Hispanic and white in 2027, they will be categorized as multiracial. The revised categories will muddy the impact of the Supreme Court’s decision. A drop in the number of Hispanic students reported could be due to the court’s ruling. Or it may result from the new way students will be counted.
Until universities and colleges adjust to the new guidelines about collecting and reporting race – and as long as students decline to provide their racial identities – the full effect of banning consideration of race in college admissions will remain a cloudy picture at best.
Karly Sarita Ford, Associate Professor of Education and Sociology, Penn State
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The Bridge is a section of the STM Daily News Blog meant for diversity, offering real news stories about bona fide community efforts to perpetuate a greater good. The purpose of The Bridge is to connect the divides that separate us, fostering understanding and empathy among different groups. By highlighting positive initiatives and inspirational actions, The Bridge aims to create a sense of unity and shared purpose. This section brings to light stories of individuals and organizations working tirelessly to promote inclusivity, equality, and mutual respect. Through these narratives, readers are encouraged to appreciate the richness of diverse perspectives and to participate actively in building stronger, more cohesive communities.
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Business and Finance
Republican lawmakers will reshape tax policy in 2025 — a tax expert explains what to expect
Jim Franklin, Western Governors University School of Business
Although coverage of the 2024 election was dominated by the economy, taxes didn’t get much attention in the run-up to the vote. That’s a bit of a surprise, since 2025 will be a major year for America’s tax system – in fact, the fate of the most significant tax reform in three decades hangs in the balance.
That would be the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Congress passed during President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office in 2017. If lawmakers don’t take action, the whole package is set to expire at the end of next year. Western Governors University School of Business tax expert Jim Franklin explains what might be in store for the act, and for taxpayers.
What do the election results mean for Republicans’ ability to advance their tax agenda?
We know there will be a Republican president, and it appears the Republican Party will have the majority in both chambers of Congress. That means Republicans will be able to pass a tax bill along party lines, similar to how Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act using budget reconciliation.
This would allow Republicans to pass key policies with a simple majority. The Republican majority is narrow, so it will be interesting to see how the leaders unify their constituent groups.
Republicans have traditionally supported lower tax rates for businesses and individuals, as well as tax incentives to help boost economic activity.
What’s next for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?
Currently, the act is set to expire at the end of 2025, but Trump and Republicans favor renewing many of its provisions.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office in May 2024 estimated that extending the act would cost the government US$4.6 trillion, and there’s a split within the party, with one bloc of congressional Republicans calling for a full extension and another asking for the balancing of tax policy and annual federal deficits.
Republicans are likely to fight to keep key components in place, including the higher standard deduction, reduced corporate tax rates, individual rate cuts and an increased estate tax exemption.
There’s even talk of lowering the corporate tax rate further, possibly to 15% for domestic production, which would be a significant move.
What other tax measures are Republicans considering?
Trump mentioned a variety of tax relief ideas on the campaign trail, including exempting tips, Social Security benefits and overtime pay from income taxes, and creating an itemized deduction for auto loan interest.
However, Republicans aren’t entirely unified on tax policy. Some deficit hawks are concerned about revenue losses, so there could be internal pushback on all these points. The real question is whether there will be enough opposition within the party to alter or block certain proposals.
But I expect many parts of the act to be renewed, and we may see some additions. For example, there’s been a lot of pressure around increasing the state and local tax deduction cap, also known as SALT, which has bipartisan support in states with higher state income taxes like New York, California and Illinois. It will be interesting to see if that gains any traction. There’s a lot of pressure among representatives, both Republicans and Democrats, to gain some relief in that area.
Where will they find revenue?
Good question. Observers are indicating that Republicans are likely to look at cutting green energy subsidies from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. These could be eliminated to help balance out the cost of their new tax proposals.
Another area to watch is tariffs. There’s talk of raising tariffs on Chinese goods — potentially up to 60% — and even imposing a universal tariff on all U.S. imports at a 20% rate. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will it be more targeted? For example, will there be continued tariffs on select imports such as automotive imports from China to protect the U.S. electric vehicle market?
What will you be watching between now and Tax Day?
One factor will be Trump’s cabinet appointments. Whoever he nominates for Treasury secretary, for instance, could have a big influence. They can help shape what the tax bill looks like. Another key factor will be who ends up on the congressional tax committees. The composition of key committees will affect the direction of policy and the specific details.
What do you think will happen with tariffs?
Tariffs are unpredictable: They could be applied broadly, or more selectively. It could be similar to the way that Trump and his first administration placed some tariffs on steel, aluminum and solar panels. Interestingly, many of the tariffs were retained by the Biden administration.
Blanket tariffs could slow down the economy, so there is always a risk. Tariffs impact inflation because they affect the cost of imported goods, which would likely reduce consumers’ purchasing power. Domestic political pressure will play a role, as higher tariffs could raise prices on many goods that are imported, including essential products like medications.
Do you have advice for people struggling to keep up with the latest tax news?
Observers often take every policy suggestion on the campaign trail literally — exempting tips, Social Security benefits, overtime pay, etc. — as if all these proposals will pass exactly as stated. But the details matter, and policies are rarely implemented without adjustments. So it’s wise to read beyond the headlines.
Jim Franklin, Director of Academic Programs, Western Governors University School of Business
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
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Lifestyle
7 Ways to Reduce Home Energy Costs
Energy bills, particularly for heating and cooling, significantly impact household budgets. Tips include adjusting thermostats, exploring incentives, using heat pumps, maintaining HVAC systems, improving insulation, and managing appliance usage.
(Family Features) When building your budget, utility bills – especially the electric bill – are likely one of your largest monthly expenditures. One of the biggest culprits: home heating and cooling, which account for more than half of the average American household’s annual energy consumption, according to estimates from the Energy Information Administration.
In fact, 83% of homeowners are concerned about the impact of energy bills on their household budgets, according to a survey conducted by Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US (METUS), with 54% saying it cost “somewhat more” or “much more” to heat their homes this winter compared to last year.
To help dial down your energy costs, consider these tips from the heating and cooling experts at METUS.
Adjust the Temperature
While you’re sleeping or away from home, adjust your thermostat up 5-10 F in the summer or down 5-10 F in the winter, which can help lower annual heating and cooling costs if done consistently. A smart thermostat can monitor your energy use and behaviors then automatically adjust to make your home more energy efficient.
Look for Incentives and Rebates
Qualified homeowners may be eligible to save money on qualified home energy improvement projects. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) offers tax credits and rebates, including a credit of 30% (up to $2,000) for qualifying heat pump installation, an energy-efficient option to replace fossil fuel-burning furnaces. Other incentives under the IRA include offsetting costs of electrical panel upgrades and rebates for homes with energy usage reductions of 20% or more.
Switch to a Heat Pump
Among survey respondents, 54% ranked government incentives like the IRA as one of the top reasons they would consider installing a heat pump to replace a traditional air conditioner. Options like Mitsubishi Electric’s all-climate heat pumps use two units – an exterior heat pump, which replaces your existing air conditioning condenser, and an interior unit installed on your furnace – to deliver cost-effective, eco-efficient, year-round heating and cooling. These smart systems not only improve air conditioning efficiency on hot days, but also determine the best source of heat (gas or electricity) on cold days, so your HVAC system is always running at peak efficiency and comfort.
Have HVAC Systems Serviced Regularly
For best performance and efficiency, regular maintenance of your heating and cooling system is imperative. Keeping outdoor units free of debris and changing air filters are tasks most homeowners can handle on their own but bringing in a professional – usually in the spring and fall – can help ensure your HVAC system and all its components, including electrical and ductwork, are functioning properly.
Improve Your Insulation
Poorly insulated attics, walls, ceilings, floors and crawl spaces can lead to energy waste and increase costs by requiring more energy to heat or cool your home. Because air can escape through these spaces when your HVAC system pushes air through your home, adding insulation can help reduce losses and keep your home more comfortable.
Use Appliances During Non-Peak Hours
Rather than using your oven, stove or clothes dryer from noon-6 p.m., peak time for many electricity providers, consider doing so in the morning or later at night. Using these appliances outside of the peak timeframe, when conventional heating and cooling systems are often running full bore, can help lower energy costs. Some utilities may also offer plans that incentivize limiting energy use during peak hours.
Think Multi-Zone
Consider upgrading to an all-climate, multi-zone heat pump, which can seamlessly connect to multiple indoor units, revolutionizing the way you experience comfort in your home. By eliminating problematic hot and cold spots in your home, this system ensures personalized comfort tailored to individual zones and optimizes energy usage by directing it only to the areas requiring heating or cooling. Replacing an outdated HVAC system with a multi-zone solution can also help achieve cost and energy savings. By efficiently managing temperature in different zones, you can experience improved energy efficiency, resulting in a more sustainable and economical solution for heating and cooling.
Find more solutions for improving your home’s efficiency and increasing energy savings at MitsubishiComfort.com.
SOURCE:
Mitsubishi Electric
Welcome to the Consumer Corner section of STM Daily News, your ultimate destination for savvy shopping and informed decision-making! Dive into a treasure trove of insights and reviews covering everything from the hottest toys that spark joy in your little ones to the latest electronic gadgets that simplify your life. Explore our comprehensive guides on stylish home furnishings, discover smart tips for buying a home or enhancing your living space with creative improvement ideas, and get the lowdown on the best cars through our detailed auto reviews. Whether you’re making a major purchase or simply seeking inspiration, the Consumer Corner is here to empower you every step of the way—unlock the keys to becoming a smarter consumer today!
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