2022 effectively tied for Earth’s 5th warmest year since 1880, and the last 9 consecutive years have been the warmest 9 on record. NASA looks back at how heat was expressed in different ways around the world in 2022. Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Kathleen Gaeta
Earth’s average surface temperature in 2022 tied with 2015 as the fifth warmest on record, according to an analysis by NASA. Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, global temperatures in 2022 were 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit (0.89 degrees Celsius) above the average for NASA’s baseline period (1951-1980), scientists from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York reported.
“This warming trend is alarming,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “Our warming climate is already making a mark: Forest fires are intensifying; hurricanes are getting stronger; droughts are wreaking havoc and sea levels are rising. NASA is deepening our commitment to do our part in addressing climate change. Our Earth System Observatory will provide state-of-the-art data to support our climate modeling, analysis and predictions to help humanity confront our planet’s changing climate.”
The past nine years have been the warmest years since modern recordkeeping began in 1880. This means Earth in 2022 was about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.11 degrees Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century average.
“The reason for the warming trend is that human activities continue to pump enormous amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and the long-term planetary impacts will also continue,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS, NASA’s leading center for climate modeling.
Human-driven greenhouse gas emissions have rebounded following a short-lived dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, NASA scientists, as well as international scientists, determined carbon dioxide emissions were the highest on record in 2022. NASA also identified some super-emitters of methane – another powerful greenhouse gas – using the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation instrument that launched to the International Space Station last year.
The Arctic region continues to experience the strongest warming trends – close to four times the global average – according to GISS research presented at the 2022 annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, as well as a separate study.
Communities around the world are experiencing impacts scientists see as connected to the warming atmosphere and ocean. Climate change has intensified rainfall and tropical storms, deepened the severity of droughts, and increased the impact of storm surges. Last year brought torrential monsoon rains that devastated Pakistan and a persistent megadrought in the U.S. Southwest. In September, Hurricane Ian became one of the strongest and costliest hurricanes to strike the continental U.S.
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Tracking Our Changing Planet
NASA’s global temperature analysis is drawn from data collected by weather stations and Antarctic research stations, as well as instruments mounted on ships and ocean buoys. NASA scientists analyze these measurements to account for uncertainties in the data and to maintain consistent methods for calculating global average surface temperature differences for every year. These ground-based measurements of surface temperature are consistent with satellite data collected since 2002 by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA’s Aqua satellite and with other estimates.
NASA uses the period from 1951-1980 as a baseline to understand how global temperatures change over time. That baseline includes climate patterns such as La Niña and El Niño, as well as unusually hot or cold years due to other factors, ensuring it encompasses natural variations in Earth’s temperature.
Many factors can affect the average temperature in any given year. For example, 2022 was one of the warmest on record despite a third consecutive year of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. NASA scientists estimate that La Niña’s cooling influence may have lowered global temperatures slightly (about 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit or 0.06 degrees Celsius) from what the average would have been under more typical ocean conditions.
A separate, independent analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded that the global surface temperature for 2022 was the sixth highest since 1880. NOAA scientists use much of the same raw temperature data in their analysis and have a different baseline period (1901-2000) and methodology. Although rankings for specific years can differ slightly between the records, they are in broad agreement and both reflect ongoing long-term warming.
NASA’s full dataset of global surface temperatures through 2022, as well as full details with code of how NASA scientists conducted the analysis, are publicly available from GISS.
GISS is a NASA laboratory managed by the Earth Sciences Division of the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York.
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Workers who are in frequent contact with potentially sick animals are at high risk of bird flu infection.
Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesRon Barrett, Macalester College
Disease forecasts are like weather forecasts: We cannot predict the finer details of a particular outbreak or a particular storm, but we can often identify when these threats are emerging and prepare accordingly.
The viruses that cause avian influenza are potential threats to global health. Recent animal outbreaks from a subtype called H5N1 have been especially troubling to scientists. Although human infections from H5N1 have been relatively rare, there have been a little more than 900 known cases globally since 2003 – nearly 50% of these cases have been fatal – a mortality rate about 20 times higher than that of the 1918 flu pandemic. If the worst of these rare infections ever became common among people, the results could be devastating.
Approaching potential disease threats from an anthropological perspective, my colleagues and I recently published a book called “Emerging Infections: Three Epidemiological Transitions from Prehistory to the Present” to examine the ways human behaviors have shaped the evolution of infectious diseases, beginning with their first major emergence in the Neolithic period and continuing for 10,000 years to the present day.
Viewed from this deep time perspective, it becomes evident that H5N1 is displaying a common pattern of stepwise invasion from animal to human populations. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 is making incremental evolutionary changes that could allow it to transmit between people. The periods between these evolutionary steps present opportunities to slow this process and possibly avert a global disaster.
Spillover and viral chatter
When a disease-causing pathogen such as a flu virus is already adapted to infect a particular animal species, it may eventually evolve the ability to infect a new species, such as humans, through a process called spillover.
Spillover is a tricky enterprise. To be successful, the pathogen must have the right set of molecular “keys” compatible with the host’s molecular “locks” so it can break in and out of host cells and hijack their replication machinery. Because these locks often vary between species, the pathogen may have to try many different keys before it can infect an entirely new host species. For instance, the keys a virus successfully uses to infect chickens and ducks may not work on cattle and humans. And because new keys can be made only through random mutation, the odds of obtaining all the right ones are very slim.
Given these evolutionary challenges, it is not surprising that pathogens often get stuck partway into the spillover process. A new variant of the pathogen might be transmissible from an animal only to a person who is either more susceptible due to preexisting illness or more likely to be infected because of extended exposure to the pathogen.
Even then, the pathogen might not be able to break out of its human host and transmit to another person. This is the current situation with H5N1. For the past year, there have been many animal outbreaks in a variety of wild and domestic animals, especially among birds and cattle. But there have also been a small number of human cases, most of which have occurred among poultry and dairy workers who worked closely with large numbers of infected animals.
Pathogen transmission can be modeled in three stages. In Stage 1, the pathogen can be transmitted only between nonhuman animals. In stage 2, the pathogen can also be transmitted to humans, but it is not yet adapted for human-to-human transmission. In Stage 3, the pathogen is fully capable of human-to-human transmission.Ron Barrett, CC BY-SA
Epidemiologists call this situation viral chatter: when human infections occur only in small, sporadic outbreaks that appear like the chattering signals of coded radio communications – tiny bursts of unclear information that may add up to a very ominous message. In the case of viral chatter, the message would be a human pandemic.
Sporadic, individual cases of H5N1 among people suggest that human-to-human transmission may likely occur at some point. But even so, no one knows how long or how many steps it would take for this to happen.
Influenza viruses evolve rapidly. This is partly because two or more flu varieties can infect the same host simultaneously, allowing them to reshuffle their genetic material with one another to produce entirely new varieties.
Genetic reshuffling – aka antigenic shift – between a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza and a strain of human influenza could create a new strain that’s even more infectious among people.Eunsun Yoo/Biomolecules & Therapeutics, CC BY-NC
These reshuffling events are more likely to occur when there is a diverse range of host species. So it is particularly concerning that H5N1 is known to have infected at least 450 different animal species. It may not be long before the viral chatter gives way to larger human epidemics.
Reshaping the trajectory
The good news is that people can take basic measures to slow down the evolution of H5N1 and potentially reduce the lethality of avian influenza should it ever become a common human infection. But governments and businesses will need to act.
People can start by taking better care of food animals. The total weight of the world’s poultry is greater than all wild bird species combined. So it is not surprising that the geography of most H5N1 outbreaks track more closely with large-scale housing and international transfers of live poultry than with the nesting and migration patterns of wild aquatic birds. Reducing these agricultural practices could help curb the evolution and spread of H5N1.
Large-scale commercial transport of domesticated animals is associated with the evolution and spread of new influenza varieties.ben/Flickr, CC BY-SA
People can also take better care of themselves. At the individual level, most people can vaccinate against the common, seasonal influenza viruses that circulate every year. At first glance this practice may not seem connected to the emergence of avian influenza. But in addition to preventing seasonal illness, vaccination against common human varieties of the virus will reduce the odds of it mixing with avian varieties and giving them the traits they need for human-to-human transmission.
At the population level, societies can work together to improve nutrition and sanitation in the world’s poorest populations. History has shown that better nutrition increases overall resistance to new infections, and better sanitation reduces how much and how often people are exposed to new pathogens. And in today’s interconnected world, the disease problems of any society will eventually spread to every society.
For more than 10,000 years, human behaviors have shaped the evolutionary trajectories of infectious diseases. Knowing this, people can reshape these trajectories for the better.Ron Barrett, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn Awarded Critical National Security Space Launch Contract
Blue Origin secures a crucial NSSL contract for New Glenn, advancing its role in national security and showcasing commitment to reliable space launch capabilities in defense missions.
Blue Origin has once again solidified its position as a leader in the space launch industry with the recent award of a National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 contract. This significant contract will designate New Glenn as a heavy-lift provider for some of the nation’s most crucial missions. As the company expresses pride in supporting the Department of Defense and the National Reconnaissance Office, this achievement highlights a pivotal movement towards enhancing the diversity of launch providers, ultimately ensuring sustained competition for secure access to space.
In response to the announcement, Jarrett Jones, Senior Vice President of New Glenn, remarked, “It’s an honor and huge responsibility to team with the U.S. Government to launch our nation’s most important assets. Through this partnership, we’re looking forward to delivering on a number of critical national security priorities.” This sentiment underscores the serious nature of the tasks ahead, emphasizing the commitment to safeguarding national interests through reliable space capabilities.
As part of this contract, New Glenn will undertake missions that involve challenging orbits, necessitating advanced performance launch systems and comprehensive mission assurance. The inclusion of the Space Systems Command (SSC) certification further validates New Glenn’s capacity to meet the rigorous demands of national security missions. The payloads delivered under this contract will be instrumental in promoting the United States’ strategic advantage in space.
Remarkably, this contract represents the third national security launch-related award Blue Origin has secured within the past year. Following a contract win in June 2024 for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 missions, and an additional award in July 2024 that allows New Glenn to compete for missions in the Orbital Services Program (OSP)-4, Blue Origin is positioning itself as a steadfast player in the evolving landscape of national security space operations.
The trajectory of New Glenn’s contracts reflects the company’s growing involvement in this critical sector, as evidenced by its successful NG-1 launch, which marked its first NSSL certification flight in January. Looking ahead, expectations are set high with the upcoming NG-2 launch planned for late spring, which aims to further validate the capabilities and reliability of New Glenn.
With this latest award, Blue Origin continues to demonstrate its commitment to enhancing national security through innovative launch solutions. As we witness the expansion of opportunities in the space sector, Blue Origin remains a key partner in ensuring that the United States can effectively meet its defense and reconnaissance objectives, all while maintaining a competitive edge in the global arena.
For further details on this exciting announcement, please visit [Blue Origin’s official site](insert link here).
Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to follow the journey of New Glenn and its integral role in national security!
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3 of Raymond E. Fowler’s Books. Image Credit: Rod Washington
When it comes to delving into the enigmatic world of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), few figures shine as brightly as Raymond E. Fowler. Born on November 11, 1933, in Salem, Massachusetts, Fowler has made an indelible mark on UFO research and literature, serving as an inspiration for countless enthusiasts—including myself—to explore the mysteries of our universe.
Raymond E. Fowler. A Pioneer in UFO Research
Fowler’s research is particularly notable in the New England area, where he meticulously investigated numerous UFO sightings and close encounters. His dedication to this often-overlooked field has resulted in a wealth of information, uncovering stories that might have otherwise remained hidden. Among his many contributions, Fowler is perhaps best known for two landmark cases: the Betty Andreasson Luca Alien Abduction and the Allagash Abductions.
His book, The Andreasson Affair (1979), analyzed Betty Andreasson’s alleged encounters with extraterrestrial beings, captivating the public’s imagination and igniting meaningful discussions on the topic of alien abduction. Similarly, The Allagash Abductions (1993) investigated an alleged multiple-person abduction case, even amid controversy surrounding one of the witnesses’ credibility decades later. Fowler’s approach—rooted in rigorous research and empathetic storytelling—served as a beacon for those curious about the unknown.
An Educator, Investigator, and Advocate
Not only did Fowler write extensively about UFOs, but he also held significant roles in organizations dedicated to investigating aerial phenomena. As the Director of Scientific Investigations for MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) and a Scientific Associate at the Center for UFO Studies, he played a pivotal role in shaping a rigorous approach to UFO investigations. Additionally, as a past chairman of NICAP (National Investigations Committee on Aerial Phenomena), Fowler’s influential work contributed to the growing legitimacy of UFO research within the scientific community.
A Personal Connection to the Phenomena
What makes Fowler’s journey particularly compelling is his own experience as an alleged abductee. In UFO Testament: Anatomy of an Abductee (2002), Fowler shares his personal encounters with the unknown, sparking a sense of connection with readers who may have had similar experiences or feelings of fear and wonder. This transparency about his own abductions has not only inspired empathy but has also encouraged a more profound understanding of the abduction phenomenon, resonating with the testimonies of others, such as those of Betty and Barney Hill.
Despite facing skepticism and criticism—especially from family members who held different beliefs—Fowler remained steadfast in his pursuit of truth. His journey reminds us that curiosity, courage, and a willingness to question the impossible can push us toward greater understanding.
A Lasting Influence
Raymond E. Fowler’s extensive body of work not only laid the groundwork for future investigations but also inspired a generation of UFO researchers and writers. His books, such as Casebook of a UFO Investigator (1981) and UFOs: Interplanetary Visitors (1974)—the latter being my first introduction to the subject—sparked my passion for exploring the unknown. Fowler’s ability to weave personal narrative with scientific inquiry instills hope for a comprehensive understanding of UFOs.
As we continue to navigate the ever-expanding universe of UFO phenomena, we can draw strength and knowledge from the extraordinary contributions of Raymond E. Fowler. His legacy encourages us to embrace our curiosity, challenge the boundaries of understanding, and always remain open to the possibilities of the cosmos above. So, whether you’re a seasoned researcher or just beginning to explore the topic, remember that the journey into the unknown is as profound as the destination itself.
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Ron Barrett, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
