Economy
Why aren’t companies speeding up investment? A new theory offers an answer to an economic paradox
David Ikenberry discusses the paradox of slow corporate investment despite record profits and cash reserves. He attributes this to excess capacity and structural economic rigidities, challenging traditional assessments like Tobin’s Q and highlighting the need for understanding demand issues in economic policy.
David Ikenberry, University of Colorado Boulder
For years, I’ve puzzled over a question that seems to defy common sense: If stock markets are hitting records and tech innovation seems endless, why aren’t companies pouring money back into new projects?
Yes, they’re still investing – but the pace of business spending is slower than you’d expect, especially outside of AI.
And if you’ve noticed headlines about sluggish business spending even as corporate profits soar, you’re not alone. It’s a puzzle that’s confounded economists, policymakers and investors for decades. Back in 1975, U.S. public companies reinvested an average of 25 cents for every dollar on their balance sheets. Today, that figure is closer to 12 cents.
In other words, corporate America is flush with cash, but it’s surprisingly stingy about reinvesting in its own future. What happened?
I’m an economist, and my colleague Gustavo Grullon and I recently published a study in the Journal of Finance that turns the field’s conventional wisdom on its head. Our research suggests the issue isn’t cautious executives or jittery markets – it’s about how economists have historically measured companies’ incentives to invest in the first place.
Asking the wrong Q
For decades, economists have relied on a simple but appealing ratio – Tobin’s Q, named after the famous economist James Tobin – to gauge whether companies should ramp up investment.
They calculate this by dividing a company’s market value – what it would take to purchase the firm outright with cash – by its replacement value, or how much it would cost to rebuild the company from scratch. The result is called “Q.” The higher the Q, the theory goes, the more incentive executives have to invest.
But reality hasn’t conformed to fit the theory. Over the past half-century, Tobin’s Q has gone up, yet investment rates have gone down sharply.
Why the disconnect? Our research points to one key culprit: excess capacity. Many U.S. companies already have more factories, machines or service capability than they can use. By not correcting for this issue, the traditional Tobin’s Q will overstate the incentive that companies have to grow.
To see this, consider a commercial real estate company that owns a portfolio of office buildings. In recent years, with the rise of e-commerce and remote work, many of their properties have been running well below capacity. Now suppose a few new tenants start paying rent and begin absorbing a portion of that empty space. Stock prices will rise in response to seeing these new cash flows, which in turn will lead Q to rise.
Traditionally, this increase in Q would suggest that it’s a good time to invest in new buildings – but the reality is quite different with idle capacity still in the system. Why pour money into building another office tower if existing ones still have empty floors?
This key idea is that what matters isn’t the average value of all assets – it’s the marginal value of adding one more dollar of investment. And because capacity utilization has been steadily eroding over the past half-century, many firms see little reason to invest.
That last point may come as a surprise, but the U.S. economy, with all its factories and offices, isn’t nearly as abuzz with activity as it was after, say, World War II. Today, many sectors operate well below full throttle. This growing slack in the system over time helps explain why companies have pulled back on their rate of investment, even as profits and market values climb.
Why has capacity utilization fallen so much over the past half-century? It’s not entirely clear, but what economists call “structural economic rigidities” – things such as regulatory hurdles, labor market frictions or shifts in cost structure – seem to be part of the answer. These factors can drag businesses into a state of chronic underuse, especially after recessions.
Why it matters
This isn’t just an academic debate. The implications are profound, whether you closely follow Wall Street or just enjoy armchair economic policy debates. For one thing, this dynamic might help explain why tax cuts haven’t spurred investment the way supporters have hoped.
Take the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and introduced full expensing for equipment investments. Supporters promised a wave of new investment.
But when my colleague and I looked at the numbers, we found the opposite. In the four years before the tax cuts, publicly traded U.S. firms had an aggregate investment rate, including intangibles, of 13.9%. In the four years after the tax cut, the average investment rate fell to 12.4% – in other words, no evidence of a bump.
Where did those liberated cash flows go? Instead of plowing this newfound cash after the tax cuts into new projects, many companies funneled it into stock buybacks and dividends.
In retrospect, this makes sense. If a company has excess capacity, the incentive to invest should be more muted, even if new machines are suddenly cheaper thanks to tax breaks. If the demand isn’t there, why buy them?
Even with the most generous tax incentives, the core challenge remains: You can’t force-feed investment into an economy already swimming in excess capacity. If companies don’t see real, scalable demand, tax breaks alone aren’t likely to unlock a new era of business spending.
That doesn’t mean tax policy doesn’t matter – it does, especially for smaller firms with real growth prospects. But for the large, well-established firms that make up the lion’s share of the economy, the bigger challenge is demand. Rather than trying to stimulate even more investment, policymakers should prioritize understanding why demand is sagging relative to supply and reducing economic rigidities where they can. That way, the capacity generated by new investment has somewhere useful to go.
David Ikenberry, Professor of Finance, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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jobs help wanted
Ghost Jobs: The Hidden Hiring Trend Affecting Millions of Job Seekers
Ghost jobs are becoming a growing concern for job seekers. Learn what they are, why companies post them, and how they affect hiring, the economy, and your job search.
Why You Keep Applying—But Never Hear Back
If you’ve ever spent hours tailoring your résumé for a position only to hear nothing in return, you may have encountered what’s known as a ghost job.
A ghost job is a job posting that appears active but isn’t currently being filled. While not every old or inactive listing is intentionally misleading, many remain online long after hiring has paused—or even after the position has already been filled.
The result is growing frustration among job seekers and increasing questions about the accuracy of employment data.
What Exactly Is a Ghost Job?
A ghost job is an advertised position where an employer has little or no immediate intention of hiring someone.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the company is acting maliciously. There are several reasons these listings exist.
Companies may:
- Build a database of future candidates
- Test salary expectations and available talent
- Comply with internal hiring policies
- Maintain the appearance of growth
- Delay removing listings after a hiring freeze or filled position
For applicants, however, the experience is often the same: applications disappear into a black hole.
Why Companies Post Ghost Jobs
Some employers say maintaining job listings helps them prepare for future growth.
Others keep positions open because budgets haven’t been finalized or executive approval hasn’t been granted.
Recruiters may also continue collecting résumés so they’re ready when a position eventually opens.
While these reasons may make business sense, they can create unrealistic expectations for applicants actively searching for work.
The Impact on Job Seekers
Ghost jobs can have real consequences.
Many applicants spend dozens of hours:
- Researching companies
- Customizing résumés
- Writing cover letters
- Completing assessments
- Participating in interviews that never lead anywhere
The emotional toll can be significant.
Repeated silence often leaves qualified workers questioning their experience or abilities when the issue may simply be that the position was never actively available.
How Ghost Jobs Affect the Economy
The effects extend beyond individual applicants.
Employment Data Can Be Misleading
Job openings are often viewed as a sign of economic strength.
If a significant share of posted openings aren’t being actively filled, the labor market may appear stronger than it actually is.
That can influence:
- Business confidence
- Consumer confidence
- Economic forecasts
- Public policy discussions
Productivity Suffers
Job seekers spend valuable time applying for positions that may never result in interviews.
Recruiters also spend time managing applications for jobs that aren’t immediately available.
Those inefficiencies create costs for both workers and employers.
Hiring Becomes Less Efficient
When applicants lose trust in job boards, they’re less likely to apply broadly.
Companies with legitimate openings may receive fewer qualified applicants because candidates become skeptical of online listings.
Are Ghost Jobs Illegal?
Generally, no.
In most cases, employers are legally allowed to advertise positions even if they’re not hiring immediately.
However, critics argue that intentionally leaving inactive jobs online without updating their status reduces transparency and wastes applicants’ time.
Some employment experts have called for greater accountability and clearer labeling of inactive or future hiring opportunities.
How to Spot a Ghost Job
While there’s no foolproof method, these warning signs may indicate a listing isn’t actively being filled:
- The same position has been reposted for months.
- The posting never disappears.
- Employees report hiring freezes.
- The company rarely responds to applicants.
- The job description is vague or unusually generic.
Tips for Job Seekers
Instead of applying blindly:
- Focus on recently posted openings.
- Connect with recruiters or current employees.
- Research whether the company is actually expanding.
- Use networking alongside online applications.
- Follow up professionally when possible.
Quality applications often produce better results than sending hundreds of résumés.
Looking Ahead
Artificial intelligence has made it easier than ever for applicants to submit hundreds of applications—and for employers to post and manage thousands of job listings.
As hiring becomes increasingly automated, transparency may become one of the most valuable qualities in the recruiting process.
For both employers and job seekers, trust remains the foundation of a healthy labor market.
Related Links
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM)
- Indeed Career Guide
- LinkedIn Talent Blog
- CareerBuilder Advice & Resources
- Monster Career Advice
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News
Joby Aviation and Toyota kick off manufacturing alliance to scale electric air taxi production
Joby Aviation and Toyota launch a joint venture to improve productivity, quality, and cost as they prepare to scale electric air taxi production.
Joby Aviation and Toyota Motor Corporation have launched the initial phase of a strategic manufacturing alliance aimed at accelerating commercial production of electric air taxis—an early step the companies say is designed to make “air mobility for all” a practical, everyday reality.
Announced June 30, 2026, the partnership formalizes a new joint venture that will combine Joby’s electric aviation development with Toyota’s production systems and operational expertise. The near-term focus: building the groundwork for commercial production while pushing improvements in productivity, quality, and cost—key factors as the industry moves from prototypes to scaled manufacturing.
What the joint venture is designed to do
According to the companies, the alliance will initially concentrate on:
- Establishing the foundation for commercial production capability
- Advancing manufacturing excellence with an emphasis on productivity, quality, and cost
- Supporting expansion of Joby’s production capacity as it works toward aircraft certification and prepares for anticipated demand
The announcement positions Toyota’s manufacturing playbook—known globally for lean production and continuous improvement—as a lever to help Joby move from development into repeatable, high-quality output at scale.
Why it matters: eVTOLs need scale, not just flight tests
Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft have become one of the most closely watched bets in next-generation transportation, but the path to viable air taxi services depends on more than successful test flights. Certification timelines, supply chain readiness, and the ability to produce aircraft consistently (and affordably) are often what separates promising technology from commercial reality.
By forming a joint venture focused on manufacturing readiness, Joby and Toyota are signaling that the next competitive frontier is industrialization—how quickly and reliably eVTOL aircraft can be built to meet safety standards and market demand.
Related Links for Further reading
- Joby Aviation (official): https://www.jobyaviation.com
- Joby Investor Relations / News (official updates & filings): https://ir.jobyaviation.com
- Toyota Newsroom (official): https://www.toyotanewsroom.com
- Toyota Global (corporate overview): https://global.toyota/en
- FAA Advanced Air Mobility / Air Taxis (context): https://www.faa.gov/air-taxis
What executives are saying
Joby founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt emphasized the long-running relationship between the companies, calling the joint venture a reflection of shared confidence in the opportunity ahead.
“Toyota has been by Joby’s side for nearly a decade, providing invaluable guidance and support as we built the foundation for manufacturing our aircraft,” Bevirt said. “Together, we share a vision of making aerial mobility an everyday reality.”
Toyota Motor Corporation Chairman Akio Toyoda framed air mobility as an extension of the company’s broader mission.
“Since our founding, we’ve been guided by the philosophy of providing mobility for all,” Toyoda said, adding that Toyota views air mobility as “a natural extension of that philosophy—from the ground into the sky.”
About the companies
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is a California-based transportation company developing an all-electric eVTOL air taxi. The company intends to operate its own air taxi service in cities worldwide and sell aircraft to other operators and partners.
Toyota (NYSE: TM) has operated in North America for nearly 70 years and says it is focused on sustainable, next-generation mobility through Toyota and Lexus brands. Toyota reports nearly 64,000 employees in North America, 14 manufacturing plants, and more than 1,800 dealerships. The company also noted that its North Carolina plant began assembling automotive batteries for electrified vehicles in 2025.
What to watch for next
For readers tracking the air taxi sector, the next milestones will likely center on:
- Details on how the joint venture will be structured operationally
- Updates on Joby’s certification progress and production ramp timelines
- Signs of how manufacturing improvements translate into cost reductions and throughput
- Additional agreements or expanded collaboration as the alliance progresses
While the companies highlighted expected benefits, they also noted the usual forward-looking risks—such as regulatory certification timelines, market conditions, and the ability to finalize additional agreements.
Source: Toyota Motor North America / PRNewswire (June 30, 2026)
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financial wellness
Building Brighter Futures: Helping Young People Succeed in a Changing Economy
Changing Economy: During a time when the economy is changing rapidly and shifting the landscape of work into uncertain territory, academic success is no longer enough to put young people on a stable path to the future. Smart students need to start taking steps in new directions, adding key concepts like financial literacy, economic mobility and entrepreneurship to their knowledge arsenals.
Building Brighter Futures: Helping Young People Succeed in a Changing Economy
(Feature Impact) During a time when the economy is changing rapidly and shifting the landscape of work into uncertain territory, academic success is no longer enough to put young people on a stable path to the future. Once, a high school diploma was enough to land a well-paying job. Then a college degree became the gold standard. Now the roadmap has changed again, which means that smart students need to start taking steps in new directions.
According to Junior Achievement, three key concepts to add to modern teenagers’ knowledge arsenal include financial literacy, economic mobility and entrepreneurship.
Why Financial Literacy Matters
When young people are equipped with the knowledge they need to earn, manage, save and invest money, it supports their journey through every life milestone ahead, from education and homeownership to retirement and more. Financial literacy gives people the confidence to make smart decisions while dodging costly mistakes like getting into high-interest debt.
A recent Junior Achievement survey indicated that although 42% of Americans struggle with money management, 23% feel their income could be sufficient if they understood how to manage it more effectively. Giving students a strong foundation in financial literacy can set them up well to not only earn money but use it wisely to meet their future needs and accomplish their goals.
The Power of Economic Mobility
Economic mobility refers to the idea that each generation can expect to achieve better opportunities and more financial stability than the one before. Today’s youth are growing increasingly skeptical of this possibility, and for good reason: they see that even many college graduates are underemployed and struggling to find their feet.
There’s no denying the game has changed. However, upward economic mobility is still within reach for students who are willing to learn the new rules, especially if they have parents and educators supporting their journeys. With or without a college degree, students who engage with their communities, believe in their own potential and focus on building transferable personal and entrepreneurial skills can find themselves well-positioned to navigate a changing world.
How to Grow Entrepreneurial Skills
Topics like financial literacy and business acumen can be taught in a variety of ways both in and out of the classroom. Other key entrepreneurial skills – like leadership, confidence, work ethic, creativity and critical thinking – are more like muscles that get stronger when they’re trained. While academics are still important, hands-on opportunities and experiences are invaluable parts of the equation to prepare students for economic success.
Take programs like Future Bound by Junior Achievement, for example, which is an immersive annual event designed to empower high school students with essential skills and opportunities to innovate. Participants put their intelligence, creativity and ambition to the test during four team competitions where they can showcase and hone real-world business and economic skills. Winners receive national honors, awards, scholarships and prizes from event sponsors, including Pacific Life Foundation and Staples, among others. Plus, all attendees get the chance to network with industry leaders from around the country, participate in workshops and connect with other future-focused teens.
Whether you’re a student, parent, educator or volunteer, explore more resources to help young people succeed at JA.org.
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock
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