Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah entered a 60-day ceasefire on Nov. 26, 2024, a move aimed at reducing tensions in the region more than a year into a multifront conflict.
Under the terms of the deal, Israel would gradually withdraw its forces from Lebanon, and Hezbollah would fully withdraw north of the Litani River. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army would “deploy and take control over their own territory,” U.S. President Joe Biden said, adding that the United States, France and other allies have pledged to support the deal.
But what does the deal mean for the parties involved and future prospects for a more permanent cessation of hostilities? The Conversation U.S. turned to Asher Kaufman, an expert of Lebanon and border conflicts in the Middle East, to explain why they reached a ceasefire now and what it means going forward.
Why is the ceasefire deal happening now?
The timing of this ceasefire is the result of a convergence of interests among the government in Israel, Hezbollah itself and that of its chief sponsor, Iran – but all for different reasons.
For the Israeli government, domestic issues are at play. First off, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are exhausted after more than a year of war. This is particularly true for Israeli reservists, a growing number of whom are not turning up for duty. The Israeli general public, too, is tired of conflict, and a majority favors a ceasefire with Hezbollah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also has internal issues in his government to contend with. He is facing pressure from the ruling coalition’s ultra-Orthodox partners to draw up laws exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from the military draft.
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Reducing the need for active personnel by quieting the front with Lebanon will help in that regard. The secular and national-religious sectors of the society who do serve in the IDF and who are upset with the possibility of a formal draft-exemption law for ultra-Orthodox men may be more inclined to swallow this pill if the war with Hezbollah is over.
From the Israeli army’s perspective, the war in Lebanon is coming to a point of diminishing returns. It has succeeded in weakening Hezbollah’s military standing but has been unable to wipe the militant group out entirely.
This also factors into Hezbollah’s thinking. The group has been seriously debilitated in Lebanon; the war has eroded its military capabilities. Unlike its previous position – reiterated time and again over the past year by its now-dead leader, Hassan Nasrallah – that a ceasefire would only be possible if first it is reached between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran are now willing to delink the two fronts. This leaves Hamas in a far weaker position as they are now left without the support of Iran’s main proxy “axis of resistance” group. Drawing Hezbollah, and other aligned groups in the region, into direct confrontation with Israel had been Hamas’ hope when it launched its attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
Hezbollah and Lebanon’s other political factions also have strong domestic pressures to contend with. Lebanon has more than 1 million refugees as a result of the conflict – the vast majority of them Shia, the branch of Islam that Hezbollah is drawn from. The conditions in Lebanon have increased the risk of sectarian fighting between Shia and others factions in the country. For Hezbollah leaders, the time may seem right to cut their losses and prepare to regroup as a political and military body.
Iran, too, is seeking to rehabilitate Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon as soon as possible. The deal comes as Tehran is bracing for a U.S. administration that could have a more hawkish position on Iran and its proxies in the region, of which Hezbollah is the most significant. With a new Iranian president, and a new U.S. administration, a ceasefire between Iran’s main proxy and Israel may be a first step to Tehran building a constructive dialogue with a Trump White House.
What is the role of the US in the ceasefire?
What is interesting for me is that despite the very clear position of the U.S. in favoring Israel during the past year of conflict, it still functions as an effective mediator. It is thanks to the U.S. that there is a ceasefire – and it comes despite the fact that Washington is far from neutral in this conflict, being a chief ally of Israel and its main provider of weapons.
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But the Lebanese government and Hezbollah see a U.S. role, too. And this is not new. The United States was the mediator in the 2022 landmark agreement that, for the first time, set out the maritime boundaries between Israel and Lebanon.
The ceasefire deal benefits both the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations. For President Joe Biden, it would represent a diplomatic success after a year in which the U.S. has failed to mediate any breakthrough in the conflict in Gaza, and it is an opportunity for Biden to finish his presidency on a positive foreign policy note. From the perspective of Trump, the ceasefire in Lebanon will represent one less problem for him to face.
What might be the consequences for Lebanon and Israel?
Lebanon has the most at stake in this ceasefire holding. The country was already in a perilous economic situation before the war, and months of fighting has only worsened the structural, economic and political crises in the country. It is as dire as it can get.
Further, the war has reignited sectarian tension in Lebanon – talk of a return to civil war in the country is not far-fetched.
But there is uncertainty over how the ceasefire will affect the various rival factions in Lebanese society. Hezbollah has been weakened and may well now look for a way to reassert its strength in Lebanon’s politics. The main question is how the other factions and parties respond to that.
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With a weak Hezbollah, other factions may challenge the militant organization in ways they haven’t before. Before being decimated by Israel, there were no rival groups in a position to challenge Hezbollah in Lebanon. But that has all changed: Hezbollah’s military power has been degraded and Nasrallah, the group’s leader, killed. And Nasrallah was not just the face and brains of Hezbollah, he was also the group’s most important link to Iran.
There is concern among some Lebanon experts that the gap left by a weakened Hezbollah may see a struggle for power and further strife in the country. And I believe there should be no illusions that Hezbollah will try to reassert itself as a domestic force.
Complicating matters is the fact that any realignment of political forces in Lebanon comes amid a political vacuum. There has been a caretaker government – and no president – for two years now since Hezbollah conditioned the appointment of a new president with the candidate being an ally of the group. Now, Lebanese politicians would need to agree on a new president who in turn would appoint a new prime minister and government. It remains to be seen how this will unfold with a weakened Hezbollah.
For Israel, the ceasefire will provide an opportunity to reconstruct parts of the north that have been devastated by Hezbollah missiles and a possible return of the 60,000 Israelis who fled northern areas close to the Lebanon border. It will also allow the Israel Defense Forces to regroup, refresh and focus their resources in Gaza, rather than fighting on two fronts.
Could the ceasefire lead to a permanent peace deal?
I don’t see any permanent peace deal on the horizon, given the fact that the fundamental political goals of Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have not changed and that the Israel-Palestine conflict continues to fester.
But I am hopeful that the ceasefire could lead to calm and stability between Israel and Lebanon for the foreseeable future. The details of the ceasefire agreement are not very different from U.N. Resolution 1701 that ended the last major war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. That agreement brought relative calm to the region for 18 years, even if Hezbollah, supported by Iran, used these years to build up its military capability and prepare for a potential ground invasion of northern Israel.
In my view, there is a possibility for greater stability this time around given the fact that the ceasefire agreement also stipulates that, if and when it becomes permanent, the deal would serve as a basis for negotiations over the demarcation of the Israel-Lebanon territorial boundary. This would not be an easy task, particularly in the area of Shebaa Farms and the village of Ghajar. But with goodwill and good intentions, even difficult border disputes could be resolved.
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Workers who are in frequent contact with potentially sick animals are at high risk of bird flu infection.
Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesRon Barrett, Macalester College
Disease forecasts are like weather forecasts: We cannot predict the finer details of a particular outbreak or a particular storm, but we can often identify when these threats are emerging and prepare accordingly.
The viruses that cause avian influenza are potential threats to global health. Recent animal outbreaks from a subtype called H5N1 have been especially troubling to scientists. Although human infections from H5N1 have been relatively rare, there have been a little more than 900 known cases globally since 2003 – nearly 50% of these cases have been fatal – a mortality rate about 20 times higher than that of the 1918 flu pandemic. If the worst of these rare infections ever became common among people, the results could be devastating.
Approaching potential disease threats from an anthropological perspective, my colleagues and I recently published a book called “Emerging Infections: Three Epidemiological Transitions from Prehistory to the Present” to examine the ways human behaviors have shaped the evolution of infectious diseases, beginning with their first major emergence in the Neolithic period and continuing for 10,000 years to the present day.
Viewed from this deep time perspective, it becomes evident that H5N1 is displaying a common pattern of stepwise invasion from animal to human populations. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 is making incremental evolutionary changes that could allow it to transmit between people. The periods between these evolutionary steps present opportunities to slow this process and possibly avert a global disaster.
Spillover and viral chatter
When a disease-causing pathogen such as a flu virus is already adapted to infect a particular animal species, it may eventually evolve the ability to infect a new species, such as humans, through a process called spillover.
Spillover is a tricky enterprise. To be successful, the pathogen must have the right set of molecular “keys” compatible with the host’s molecular “locks” so it can break in and out of host cells and hijack their replication machinery. Because these locks often vary between species, the pathogen may have to try many different keys before it can infect an entirely new host species. For instance, the keys a virus successfully uses to infect chickens and ducks may not work on cattle and humans. And because new keys can be made only through random mutation, the odds of obtaining all the right ones are very slim.
Given these evolutionary challenges, it is not surprising that pathogens often get stuck partway into the spillover process. A new variant of the pathogen might be transmissible from an animal only to a person who is either more susceptible due to preexisting illness or more likely to be infected because of extended exposure to the pathogen.
Even then, the pathogen might not be able to break out of its human host and transmit to another person. This is the current situation with H5N1. For the past year, there have been many animal outbreaks in a variety of wild and domestic animals, especially among birds and cattle. But there have also been a small number of human cases, most of which have occurred among poultry and dairy workers who worked closely with large numbers of infected animals.
Pathogen transmission can be modeled in three stages. In Stage 1, the pathogen can be transmitted only between nonhuman animals. In stage 2, the pathogen can also be transmitted to humans, but it is not yet adapted for human-to-human transmission. In Stage 3, the pathogen is fully capable of human-to-human transmission.Ron Barrett, CC BY-SA
Epidemiologists call this situation viral chatter: when human infections occur only in small, sporadic outbreaks that appear like the chattering signals of coded radio communications – tiny bursts of unclear information that may add up to a very ominous message. In the case of viral chatter, the message would be a human pandemic.
Sporadic, individual cases of H5N1 among people suggest that human-to-human transmission may likely occur at some point. But even so, no one knows how long or how many steps it would take for this to happen.
Influenza viruses evolve rapidly. This is partly because two or more flu varieties can infect the same host simultaneously, allowing them to reshuffle their genetic material with one another to produce entirely new varieties.
Genetic reshuffling – aka antigenic shift – between a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza and a strain of human influenza could create a new strain that’s even more infectious among people.Eunsun Yoo/Biomolecules & Therapeutics, CC BY-NC
These reshuffling events are more likely to occur when there is a diverse range of host species. So it is particularly concerning that H5N1 is known to have infected at least 450 different animal species. It may not be long before the viral chatter gives way to larger human epidemics.
Reshaping the trajectory
The good news is that people can take basic measures to slow down the evolution of H5N1 and potentially reduce the lethality of avian influenza should it ever become a common human infection. But governments and businesses will need to act.
People can start by taking better care of food animals. The total weight of the world’s poultry is greater than all wild bird species combined. So it is not surprising that the geography of most H5N1 outbreaks track more closely with large-scale housing and international transfers of live poultry than with the nesting and migration patterns of wild aquatic birds. Reducing these agricultural practices could help curb the evolution and spread of H5N1.
Large-scale commercial transport of domesticated animals is associated with the evolution and spread of new influenza varieties.ben/Flickr, CC BY-SA
People can also take better care of themselves. At the individual level, most people can vaccinate against the common, seasonal influenza viruses that circulate every year. At first glance this practice may not seem connected to the emergence of avian influenza. But in addition to preventing seasonal illness, vaccination against common human varieties of the virus will reduce the odds of it mixing with avian varieties and giving them the traits they need for human-to-human transmission.
At the population level, societies can work together to improve nutrition and sanitation in the world’s poorest populations. History has shown that better nutrition increases overall resistance to new infections, and better sanitation reduces how much and how often people are exposed to new pathogens. And in today’s interconnected world, the disease problems of any society will eventually spread to every society.
For more than 10,000 years, human behaviors have shaped the evolutionary trajectories of infectious diseases. Knowing this, people can reshape these trajectories for the better.Ron Barrett, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Is Chipotle Closing All Its Restaurants After Filing for Bankruptcy? Here’s What We Know
Rumors of Chipotle filing for bankruptcy and closing locations stemmed from a misreported article about a spinoff restaurant. Chipotle confirmed these claims are false and plans to open 345 new restaurants, ensuring customers it remains open for business.
Recent rumors circulating on social media have left many Chipotle fans in a state of panic, with claims that the beloved restaurant chain is filing for bankruptcy and set to close all its locations. Let’s set the record straight and find out what’s really happening.
According to KTLA, the frenzy began when the Union Rayo media outlet published a story on March 20 about the closure of a Chipotle spinoff restaurant called Farmesa Fresh Eatery. Unfortunately, the article mistakenly included a photo of Chipotle, and this misinformation quickly spread like wildfire across social platforms.
Chipotle is famous for its generously-sized burritos, bowls, quesadillas, and tacos, proudly serving organic ingredients at nearly 4,000 locations worldwide. Unsurprisingly, the rumors sent burrito lovers into a frenzy. One social media user expressed disbelief, questioning, “How is Chipotle going bankrupt when I get a bowl with extra chicken and guac every day????”
Amidst the chaos, another user humorously suggested, “They’re talking about Chipotle closing, I’ll chain my wrist to the door don’t play with me,” highlighting the deep connection many have to the restaurant.
In response to the widespread concerns, Chipotle issued a statement to clarify the situation. A spokesperson for the chain told Good Morning America, “The claim that Chipotle is closing restaurants is false. The false information stemmed from an inaccurate online article confusing Chipotle with a venture it tested in 2023. The story has since been corrected.”
Furthermore, as a testament to their growth, Chipotle plans to open 345 new restaurants this year. This expansion clearly indicates that the chain is on solid ground and committed to serving its loyal customers for years to come.
So, if you were worried about your next burrito fix, rest easy! Chipotle is not closing its doors, and the rumors can safely be put to rest. Keep enjoying your favorite meals, and stay tuned for those new locations popping up soon!
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Dolores Raphael is a dedicated writer and blogger focused on health, fitness, and everyday living. She shares practical tips and inspiring insights to help others lead a balanced and vibrant lifestyle. one of her passions is Pickleball.
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Val Kilmer at Cannes in 2005. Image Credit: Georges Biard
LOS ANGELES (AP) — In a heartbreaking loss to the entertainment world, Val Kilmer, the intense and versatile actor known for iconic roles in films such as “Top Gun,” “Batman Forever,” and “The Doors,” has passed away at the age of 65. Kilmer died on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, surrounded by his family and friends, as confirmed by his daughter, Mercedes Kilmer, in an email to The Associated Press.
Kilmer’s death was attributed to pneumonia, following a long and courageous battle with throat cancer that he had been diagnosed with in 2014, a struggle that led to two tracheotomies.
Reflecting on his tumultuous yet inspiring journey, Kilmer shared in the documentary “Val” (2021), “I have behaved poorly. I have behaved bravely. I have behaved bizarrely to some. I deny none of this and have no regrets because I have lost and found parts of myself that I never knew existed. And I am blessed.” His words are a testament to his remarkable resilience, artistry, and unique perspective on life.
Val Kilmer
Kilmer was a prodigy in the performing arts, becoming the youngest actor ever admitted to the prestigious Juilliard School when he enrolled in 1981. His breakthrough came with the 1984 spy spoof “Top Secret!” and he quickly rose to fame with a series of successful films, including the beloved comedy “Real Genius” in 1985. He showcased his comedic talents in later works, such as “MacGruber” and “Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.”
The pinnacle of Kilmer’s career arguably occurred in the early 1990s, where he solidified his status as a leading man. Among his most memorable roles were Doc Holliday in “Tombstone” (1993), Elvis Presley in “True Romance,” and the cunning bank-robbing demolition expert in Michael Mann’s “Heat” (1995), alongside cinematic legends Al Pacino and Robert De Niro.
Despite the acclaim, Kilmer’s career was not without its challenges. A 1996 Entertainment Weekly cover story famously dubbed him “The Man Hollywood Loves to Hate,” citing conflicts with directors and a reputation for being difficult on set. Notable figures, including directors John Frankenheimer and Joel Schumacher, described his work as challenging; however, many others, like director D. J. Caruso, defended Kilmer’s commitment to depth and character immersion.
After delivering memorable performances in adult dramas, Kilmer took a slight detour, engaging in smaller films, such as David Mamet’s “Spartan,” and portraying the troubled 1970s adult film star John Holmes in “Wonderland” (2003). He also embraced the stage with a one-man show, “Citizen Twain,” where he explored the complex life of Mark Twain.
Hailing from the Chatsworth neighborhood of Los Angeles, Kilmer’s early life was marred by tragedy with the loss of his younger brother, Wesley, to a seizure — a poignant event that would forever resonate with him. Throughout his life, Kilmer sought inspiration from his brother, often reflecting on the artistic potential he believed Wesley would have achieved.
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As a multi-talented artist, Kilmer not only acted but also wrote poetry, with two published collections, including “My Edens After Burns.” In 2012, he received a Grammy nomination for his spoken word album, “The Mark of Zorro.” He continued to explore various creative outlets and was known for his dedication to visual art and his Christian Science faith.
His personal life saw relationships with notable personalities, including singer Cher, and he was previously married to actor Joanne Whalley, with whom he shares two children, Mercedes and Jack.
In a final testament to his remarkable life and career, Kilmer asserted, “I have no regrets. I’ve witnessed and experienced miracles.” Val Kilmer leaves behind a rich legacy, characterized by his complex characters and deep artistic contributions that will forever resonate with audiences. The film industry has lost a true icon, and his presence will be deeply missed.
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
Rod: A creative force, blending words, images, and flavors. Blogger, writer, filmmaker, and photographer. Cooking enthusiast with a sci-fi vision. Passionate about his upcoming series and dedicated to TNC Network. Partnered with Rebecca Washington for a shared journey of love and art.
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Ron Barrett, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
