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UN climate negotiations end on shaky geopolitical ground, but I see reasons for hope

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climate
Officials from countries around the world met in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29 in November 2024. UN Climate Change via Flickr

Shannon Gibson, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

The 2024 United Nations climate talks wrapped up two days late, with an ending fitting that of a geopolitical reality TV show, complete with walkouts and recriminations.

Countries agreed on a new climate finance target on Nov. 24, 2024, promising to provide at least US$300 billion annually by 2035 to help developing countries build clean energy systems. But it was far less than the $1.3 trillion vulnerable countries were calling for.

The conference also delayed a debate over how to move forward on a 2023 agreement for all countries to contribute to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” and to submit climate pledges aligned with the 1.5C limit.

Some people may be ready to write the epitaph for global progress against climate change. But as someone who teaches global environmental politics and has followed international climate talks for years, I see both practical and moral reasons to remain hopeful.

The battle to keep the 1.5 C goal alive

In 2015, the world’s nations agreed as part of the Paris climate accord to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), with an aspirational target of 1.5 C (2.7 F). This target is important, but sometimes confusing. It is rooted in science, but it is not a singular “tipping point.”

As the planet warms beyond 1.5 C, multiple large-scale climate shifts will become more likely.

Ocean circulation is already slowing, coral reefs face increasingly common mass bleaching events as the oceans heat up, and Arctic permafrost is thawing, releasing greenhouse gases that further fuel climate change. Rising temperatures are also fueling increasingly frequent and more damaging heat waves, droughts, wildfires and flooding that put human lives and livelihoods at risk.

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Recognizing these risks, the Paris Agreement was widely heralded, and many countries have made progress in lowering their emissions in the decade since. However, not all countries are pulling their weight.

In 2023, the U.N. acknowledged that the countries’ current commitments for addressing climate change, known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, would still result in a catastrophic 2.5 C to 2.9 C (4.5 F to 5.2 F) of warming by 2100.

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The World Meteorological Organization issued a “red alert” in November 2024 that the world is on track to overshoot the 1.5 C goal this year. It notes that this overshoot can be temporary – if countries take greater action.

A thermometer shows the world is not on track to meet the Paris goals.
Projections for how much temperatures will rise by the end of the century based on current policies, countries’ 2030 formal targets, countries’ 2030 pledges and a best-case scenario if all announced targets are met. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute (c)

How the world can still meet the Paris goals

Countries can still turn the tide on climate change.

The outcomes of the 2023 climate talks provided a road map for countries to increase their efforts toward net-zero emissions:

  • Triple renewable energy capacity globally.
  • Accelerate a phasedown of coal power.
  • Transition away from fossil fuels.
  • Accelerate zero-emissions and low-emissions technologies.
  • Cut methane and other noncarbon dioxide emissions.
  • Reduce emissions from road transport.
  • Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

Many countries are making progress on this transition.

Among developed countries, Norway is on track to phase out of fossil fuel vehicle sales in 2025. China has become a leader in renewable energy. It pledged in 2020 to double its renewable energy capacity by 2030, and, thanks to solar power deployment, it expects to complete that goal in half the time.

Other nations, including the U.K., Greece and Denmark, have embarked on major efforts to scale down coal power, with Portugal being the first to hit zero coal.

Two workers in white smocks and hats use instruments for detailed work on line of solar cells in a factory.
Workers produce photovoltaic cell modules for solar panels in Zaozhuang, China, in February 2024. China is the major supplier of solar cells used around the world. Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

An important mechanism of the Paris Agreement is the expectation that countries will ratchet up their commitments every five years. The deadline for these new climate goals is early 2025, and some countries have gotten a head start.

Brazil announced its new climate commitments during the climate conference, pledging to reduce emissions 67% by 2035. The United Arab Emirates submitted a commitment to reduce its emissions by 47% compared with its 2019 baseline emissions. Other countries signaled their intentions in high-level statements. Belgium announced a doubling of its climate finance contribution.

These new announcements are a good sign of continued global support for the Paris Agreement goals.

Additionally, the conference made progress on agreements to reduce non-CO₂ emissions, namely methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons – also known as climate change “super pollutants” because of their extreme global warming potential.

Why the Paris Agreement will survive a second Trump presidency

There is no doubt that Donald Trump returning as U.S. president will pose significant roadblocks to efforts to slow climate change. As a candidate, he talked about throttling back U.S. efforts, including cutting funding for clean energy and eliminating regulations on the fossil fuel industry.

But efforts to deal with climate change are bigger than one person or even one country.

While Trump has declared that he will pull the U.S. out of the international Paris Agreement again, influential people are advising him to reconsider. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods argued that a U.S. withdrawal would leave a hole at the global negotiating table.

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Even if Trump does pull the U.S. out of the treaty, which he can do after a one-year waiting period, that doesn’t mean pro-climate actions in the U.S. will simply stop or that the agreement will fall apart.

There are commonsense business reasons to push climate efforts forward, starting with the fact that clean energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels in much of the world. Nearly 1 in 5 vehicles sold in 2023 globally were electric. In the U.S., heat pump sales are beating gas furnaces for the third straight year. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy?tab=chart

A withdrawal from the Paris Agreement also does not prevent states and cities from continuing their progress against climate change.

In fact, after Trump announced he would withdraw the U.S. from the agreement in 2017, several U.S. states doubled down on their climate commitments. Hawaii, for example, passed legislation to be “Paris compliant” and get to net-negative emissions, meaning it will sequester more emissions than it emits.

California continues to report falling emissions even with a growing economy. The state sued several large oil and gas companies for deceiving the public about climate change.

Moreover, a U.S. retreat from the Paris Agreement would not be an embargo on individual actions. Engineers and scientists will continue to create innovative technology to reduce emissions and slow climate change, and corporations will reap the economic benefits of energy efficiency and clean energy market leadership.

This acknowledgment has given rise to calls for a blend of optimism and pragmatism.

Looking ahead to 2025

Next year’s COP30, to be held in Brazil, is important because countries face a deadline for setting new targets. Overall, their current policies still fall short of the 1.5 C goal.

Calls for greater commitments are not just optimistic, they are economically and morally compelling.

For one, the future cost of inaction now is greater than the cost of action, so concerted decisions to delay emissions cuts now will only harm countries in the future.

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Morally, the international community has a responsibility to mitigate suffering. This is the very nature of long-held international norms and laws, such as the “responsibility to protect,” and reiterated in Pope Francis’ calls for global environmental responsibility.

While the climate will breach the 1.5 C warming limit, every fraction of a degree matters. I believe it is crucial that countries, states, business leaders and people everywhere continue the shift toward cleaner energy to minimize the impact.

Researchers Emerson Damiano and Lauren Segal, students in environmental studies at the University of Southern California, contributed to this article.

Shannon Gibson, Associate Professor of International Relations and Environmental Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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health and wellness

Zepbound Linked to Lower Healthcare Costs in Adults 55+ With Obesity, Real-World Study Suggests

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A real-world study found sustained Zepbound use in adults 55+ with obesity was linked to lower healthcare costs and fewer hospital and ER visits over time.

A new real-world study of adults over age 55 with overweight or obesity found that sustained use of Zepbound (tirzepatide) for weight management was associated with lower healthcare costs over time compared with similar adults who were not treated. Eli Lilly and Company said the findings were driven in part by lower rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits, and were published in Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism.

What the study found

According to Lilly, researchers estimated healthcare cost differences over time (excluding the cost of Zepbound itself) using two established analytic methods. Across both approaches, monthly healthcare costs were lower, on average, among older adults who stayed on Zepbound.

Key estimates reported in the release include:

  • At six months: costs were up to 15% lower (up to $181 per patient, per month).
  • At 12 months: the estimated difference widened to as much as $607 per patient, per month, reflecting up to 38% lower costs than those not treated (estimates varied by model).

In the primary analysis, adults over 55 treated with Zepbound had lower rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits across every follow-up period, along with numerically higher rates of routine outpatient and office visitsa pattern the company said was consistent with greater engagement in routine care.

Why Medicare is part of the conversation

Lilly said the cost findings may be relevant for older adults, including those in Medicares GLP-1 Bridge program. The company noted that beginning at six months, estimated healthcare savings nearly covered the programs monthly treatment cost of $195 per patient, per month, and by 12 months the estimated savings exceeded the reported monthly treatment cost.

Its important to note the release also emphasizes a limitation: claims data do not capture Zepbounds net price, and the study excluded the cost of Zepbound from total treatment costs. That means the reported differences reflect potential savings elsewhere in care that could offset treatment costs, not the full net cost impact.

Who was included in the analysis

The retrospective observational cohort study used Komodos Healthcare Map, a database of de-identified claims data from more than 330 million individuals enrolled in U.S. healthcare plans. The analysis included 15,843 adults over age 55 (mean age 64.5) with obesity or overweight plus at least one obesity-related complication who initiated Zepbound between November 2023 and September 2025. Each Zepbound user was matched 1:1 with a control participant who met the same eligibility criteria but did not initiate GLP-1 or GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist medication.

What Zepbound is

Zepbound (tirzepatide) is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist indicated for adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have at least one weight-related medical problem, to lose weight and keep it off. Lilly also noted Zepbound is FDA-approved to treat adults with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and obesity, and should be used alongside a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity.

Safety summary (high level)

The release includes an indications and safety summary with warnings. Among other risks, Lilly notes Zepbound carries a warning about thyroid tumors, including thyroid cancer, and may cause serious side effects such as severe stomach problems, dehydration leading to kidney problems, gallbladder problems, pancreatitis, serious allergic reactions, and low blood sugar (especially when used with certain diabetes medicines). Patients should talk with a healthcare provider about risks and whether the medication is appropriate for them.

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  • PRNewswire / Eli Lilly and Company press release (Aug. 26, 2026): Zepbound linked to lower healthcare costs in adults over age 55 with obesity according to a real-world study

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Economy

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips as Americans Grow More Cautious About the Future

U.S. consumer confidence edged lower in August as Americans became more pessimistic about jobs, income and business conditions over the next six months, despite improved views of the current economy.

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NEW YORK — U.S. consumer confidence edged lower in August as Americans expressed greater concern about future business conditions, jobs and household income, even as their assessment of the current economy improved.

U.S. consumer confidence slipped in August 2026 as Americans grew more concerned about jobs, income and future business conditions.

The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July.

The relatively small decline, however, masks a widening gap between how consumers view conditions today and what they expect in the months ahead.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, climbed 6.8 points to 121.2, reversing three consecutive months of declines.

Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook for income, business and employment conditions, dropped 5.8 points to 68.2.

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in the organization’s Aug. 25 release.

Jobs Look Better Today — But Consumers Worry About Tomorrow

Americans’ perceptions of the current labor market improved considerably during August. About 27% said jobs were plentiful, up from 24.4% in July, while 19.5% said jobs were hard to get, down from 21.7%.

The outlook for the next six months was considerably weaker.

Only 14.6% expected more jobs to become available, compared with 16.4% in July. At the same time, 26.1% expected fewer jobs.

Consumers were also less optimistic about their incomes. About 17.6% expected their income to increase, down from 19.5% in July, while 13.8% expected their income to decline.

Prices Remain on Consumers’ Minds

Inflation continues to influence how Americans feel about the economy. According to The Conference Board, consumers’ written responses frequently mentioned prices, oil and gasoline, food and groceries, trade, jobs, and war or conflict.

Average and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased slightly.

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Interest rates remain another concern. More than six in 10 consumers — 61.3% — expected interest rates to rise over the next year, although that was slightly lower than the 62% recorded in July.

Consumers Are Still Planning to Spend

The softer outlook hasn’t eliminated Americans’ willingness to make purchases.

Auto-buying expectations remained strong on a six-month moving-average basis, while homebuying expectations declined slightly in August but remained on a longer-term upward trend after hitting decade lows in early 2024.

Restaurants, bars and takeout; utilities; and streaming, internet and mobile services ranked among consumers’ leading planned service expenses.

Consumers were less enthusiastic about discretionary activities including movies, personal-travel hotels, airfare, amusement parks, museums and historical sites.

Why It Matters

The August numbers paint a mixed picture of the American consumer.

People are seeing some improvement in the economy they are experiencing today, particularly in the labor market. But their expectations for the next six months are becoming noticeably more cautious.

That divide matters because consumer spending represents a major part of U.S. economic activity. If concerns about employment, inflation and household income begin translating into reduced spending, weakening confidence could eventually become more significant for the broader economy.

For now, the August survey suggests Americans haven’t stopped spending — but they’re increasingly keeping an eye on what may be coming next.

The preliminary August Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted online for The Conference Board by Toluna. The survey period was Aug. 3–16, 2026.

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Source: The Conference Board, August 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey®, released Aug. 25, 2026.

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Lifestyle

California and Minnesota Face $1B Medicaid Funding Hold

The Trump administration is withholding more than $1 billion in Medicaid funding from California and Minnesota over disputed medical claims. A social-policy historian examines how concerns about fraud have historically been used to justify funding cuts and undermine public confidence in Medicaid.

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Agents, many wearing jackets or vests emblazoned with 'FBI,' exit a building with what appears to be a trove of documents.Medicaid Funding.
Federal agents execute a search in December 2025 tied to potential Medicaid fraud in Bloomington, Minn. Christopher Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images

Ben Zdencanovic, University of Cambridge

California and Minnesota Face $1B Medicaid Funding Hold

The Trump administration announced on July 21, 2026, that it’s withholding US$867 million in federal healthcare funding for California and $200 million for Minnesota – a total of more than $1 billion.

Federal officials said the two states had failed to provide sufficient evidence that a number of disputed medical claims were legitimate. These include bills for in-home care and other services covered by the two states’ Medicaid programs for low-income residents.

Medicaid administrators say the funds can be recovered if the states supply the requested documentation. But the action is highly unusual: Typically, Medicaid officials partner with states to conduct an audit when they suspect fraud, a careful process that often takes years.

It’s the second time in 2026 that the Trump administration has withheld or deferred federal Medicaid funds for several states, including California and Minnesota, because of alleged fraud and abuse. The Democratic governors of those states have called the decision a politically motivated attack on their constituents.

I’m a historian of social policy who led the first comprehensive historical overview of Medi-Cal, California’s statewide Medicaid system. I’ve found that U.S. leaders have long used the language of fraud and abuse to blur the line between correcting very real failures within Medicaid and – as I believe the Trump administration is currently doing – discrediting and defunding the program itself.

Who pays when Medicaid is cut? It affects children’s health care, nursing home care, disability services and health insurance.

Slashing the safety net

The Medicaid restrictions are part of the Trump administration’s overall efforts to slash federal funding for the safety net.

The large tax-and-spending bill that Trump signed into law in July 2025 as the cornerstone of his second-term agenda pared eligibility for Medicaid by introducing work requirements for some adults. It is cutting close to $1 trillion in federal spending on the program over the next decade.

Researchers estimate that almost 12 million people, on top of the estimated 28 million without health insurance in 2025, could become uninsured by 2034 due to these changes. By mid-2026, more than 3 million people had already lost their insurance coverage due to Republican changes to the Affordable Care Act.

‘Padlocking’ the ‘cookie jar’

In February 2026, Vice President JD Vance, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS, announced a new anti-fraud initiative called Comprehensive Regulations to Uncover Suspicious Healthcare.

Also known by its rather unsubtle acronym, CRUSH, this initiative is taking unprecedented steps to withhold and defer funds in response to suspected fraud. “CMS is done trying to catch fraudsters with their hands in the cookie jar,” Oz said in announcing CRUSH’s formation. “Instead, we’re padlocking the jar and letting them starve.”

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To be sure, Medicaid fraud, waste and abuse – such as providers billing Medicaid for services that are unnecessary or never rendered – are very real problems that cost taxpayers billions of dollars annually. They do divert funds from the low-income and disabled Americans enrolled in the program.

But the Trump administration’s latest moves are part of a much broader history of weaponizing Medicaid fraud and abuse – both real and imagined. I see them as a politicized attempt to prove that Medicaid itself is wasteful, that state governments cannot be trusted to administer federal money, and that public benefits inevitably invite dishonesty.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. points to a chart pertaining to Medicaid fraud.
Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks about alleged Medicaid fraud and charges in Minneapolis in May 2026. Christopher Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images

Providing little oversight at the start

Medicaid was established, along with Medicare for older adults, in 1965 as part of President Lyndon B. Johnson’s “Great Society” reforms. Despite providing millions of Americans with health insurance coverage for the first time, these programs had few centralized mechanisms for the kind of federal oversight that could prevent and catch fraud and abuse.

And the sheer scale and complexity of the Medicaid system – joint federal-state funding, varying eligibility requirements, millions of enrollees and thousands of providers – created opportunities for questionable billing practices among providers.

The 1970s saw a number of highly publicized Medicaid scandals involving nursing homes, laboratories, pharmacies and so-called “Medicaid mills” – healthcare providers that sought to bill the government for large numbers of Medicaid patients for shoddy and often fraudulent care.

A series of high-profile congressional investigations spurred demand for stronger Medicaid oversight and enforcement. That led to the Medicare-Medicaid Anti-Fraud and Abuse Amendments of 1977, which established the national Medicaid Fraud Control Units program.

The state-run Medicaid Fraud Control Units received generous federal matching funds to investigate and prosecute fraud.

The most serious Medicaid fraud was generally committed by healthcare providers and contractors, not patients. Medicaid Fraud Control Units were principally responsible for investigating providers, while also prosecuting the abuse and neglect of patients whose care was billed to Medicaid.

At the same time, however, Medicaid was becoming entangled in a broader political debate over social spending, whether many Americans were becoming too dependent on government benefits, and the alleged use of benefits by people who should not have received them. In the 1980s and 1990s, widely circulated stories about Medicaid exposed fraud and malfeasance by providers.

But disproportionately, they also highlighted the comparatively few instances of fraud by people enrolled in the program, such as cases where they submitted false receipts for covered medically related travel or sold drugs they obtained through Medicaid for free or at low cost.

Using Medicare fraud to justify spending cuts

The distinction between Medicaid and cash assistance programs, such as the Aid to Families with Dependent Children “welfare” program, frequently disappeared in political rhetoric. False or exaggerated stories that portrayed African American single mothers living extravagantly while fraudulently claiming welfare benefits became potent symbols of supposed government failure.

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While campaigning as a presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan seized on this trope of the “welfare queen” in his attacks on social spending.

A large crowd of people wait on lines in a black and white photo from the 1970s.
People line up at the Baltimore City Welfare Office in 1975, years before concerns about social spending led to big cuts to safety net programs. O’Halloran/Library of Congress via Getty Images

By the mid-1990s, opposition to welfare programs had become increasingly bipartisan. Politicians in both parties often used tales of Medicaid fraud on the part of providers and recipients to justify tighter eligibility rules and spending cuts.

Federal oversight expanded further with the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, which created the Medicaid Integrity Program and strengthened federal oversight of state programs. The Affordable Care Act, the landmark healthcare legislation Congress passed in 2010, added new measures to screen providers and verify billing.

Concerns about Medicaid’s “integrity” became highly politicized in the debates surrounding the ACA. Critics of Medicaid expansion argued that increasing the number of people who could get health insurance through the program would increase fraud and improper enrollment. Supporters of expanding Medicaid to help more Americans gain health insurance maintained that anti-fraud rhetoric often disguised ideological opposition to the program’s expansion.

Blurring distinctions then and now

For the six decades that this program has helped millions of low-income Americans get healthcare, politicians have blurred the distinction between protecting Medicaid from abuse and using abuse to discredit Medicaid itself.

In my view, the Trump administration’s campaigns against California and Minnesota continue that pattern. It is using real weaknesses within Medicaid to advance much broader political arguments: that Democratic states cannot be trusted, that public benefits naturally invite abuse, and that withholding funds is itself a form of reform.

The result will no doubt be that fewer low-income Americans will be able to get the healthcare they need.

Ben Zdencanovic, Assistant Professor of U.S. History, University of Cambridge

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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