News
How AI can improve storm surge forecasts to help save lives
storm surge forecasts: Hurricanes cause significant damage due to storm surge, which is influenced by wind and pressure. AI can enhance storm surge predictions, providing faster, more accurate information to aid evacuations and preparedness for coastal communities at risk.
Navid Tahvildari, Florida International University
Hurricanes are America’s most destructive natural hazards, causing more deaths and property damage than any other type of disaster. Since 1980, these powerful tropical storms have done more than US$1.5 trillion in damage and killed more than 7,000 people.
The No. 1 cause of the damages and deaths from hurricanes is storm surge.
Storm surge is the rise in the ocean’s water level, caused by a combination of powerful winds pushing water toward the coastline and reduced air pressure within the hurricane compared to the pressure outside of it. In addition to these factors, waves breaking close to the coast causes sea level to increase near the coastline, a phenomenon we call wave setup, which can be an important component of storm surge.
Accurate storm surge predictions are critical for giving coastal residents time to evacuate and giving emergency responders time to prepare. But storm surge forecasts at high resolution can be slow.
As a coastal engineer, I study how storm surge and waves interact with natural and human-made features on the ocean floor and coast and ways to mitigate their impact. I have used physics-based models for coastal flooding and have recently been exploring ways that artificial intelligence can improve the speed of storm surge forecasting.
How storm surge is forecast today
Today, operational storm surge forecasts rely on hydrodynamic models, which are based on the physics of water flow.
These models use current environmental conditions – such as how fast the storm is moving toward shore, its wind speed and direction, the timing of the tide, and the shape of the seafloor and the landscape – to compute the projected surge height and determine which locations are most at risk.
Hydrodynamic models have substantially improved in recent decades, and computers have become significantly more powerful, such that rapid low-resolution simulations are possible over very large areas. However, high-resolution simulation that provide neighborhood-level detail can take several hours to run.
Those hours can be critical for communities at risk to evacuate safely and for emergency responders to prepare adequately.
To forecast storm surge across a wide area, modelers break up the target area into many small pieces that together form a computational grid or mesh. Picture pixels in an image. The smaller the grid pieces, or cells, the higher the resolution and the more accurate the forecast. However, creating many small cells across a large area requires greater computing power, so forecasting storm surge takes longer as a result.
Forecasters can use low-resolution computer grids to speed up the process, but that reduces accuracy, leaving communities with more uncertainty about their flood risk.
AI can help speed that up.
How AI can create better forecasts
There are two main sources of uncertainty in storm surge predictions.
One involves the data fed into the computer model. A hurricane’s storm track and wind field, which determine where it will make landfall and how intense the surge will be, are still hard to forecast accurately more than a few days in advance. Changes to the coast and sea floor, such as from channel dredging or loss of salt marshes, mangroves or sand dunes, can affect the resistance that storm surge will face.
The second uncertainty involves the resolution of the computational grid, over which the mathematical equations of the surge and wave motion are solved. The resolution determines how well the model sees changes in landscape elevation and land cover and accounts for them, and at how much granularity the physics of hurricane surge and waves is solved.
AI models can produce detailed predictions faster. For example, engineers and scientists have developed AI models based on deep neural networks that can predict water levels along the coastline quickly and accurately by using data about the wind field. In some cases, these models have been more accurate than traditional hydrodynamic models.
AI can also develop forecasts for areas with little historic data, or be used to understand extreme conditions that may not have occurred there before.
For these forecasts, physics-based models can be used to generate synthetic data to train the AI on scenarios that might be possible but haven’t actually happened. Once an AI model is trained on both the historic and synthetic data, it can quickly generate surge forecasts using details about the wind and atmospheric pressure.
Training the AI on data from hydrodynamic models can also improve its ability to quickly generate inundation risk maps showing which streets or houses are likely to flood in extreme events that may not have a historical precedent but could happen in the future.
The future of AI for hurricane forecasting
AI is already being used in operational storm surge forecasts in a limited way, mainly to augment the commonly used physics-based models.
In addition to improving those methods, my team and other researchers have been developing ways to use AI for storm surge prediction using observed data, assessing the damage after hurricanes and processing camera images to deduce flood intensity. That can fill a critical gap in the data needed for validating storm surge models at granular levels.
As artificial intelligence models rapidly spread through every aspect of our lives and more data becomes available for training them, the technology offers potential to improve hurricane and storm surge forecasting in the future, giving coastal communities faster and more detailed warnings about the risks on the way.
Navid Tahvildari, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida International University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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actors & performers
T.K. Carter, The Thing and Punky Brewster Actor, Dies at 69
Actor T.K. Carter, known for The Thing and Punky Brewster, has died at age 69. A look at his career and lasting legacy in film and television.
T.K. Carter in Punky Brewster (1984) Image: IMDB
Veteran actor T.K. Carter, best known for his roles in The Thing and the popular 1980s television series Punky Brewster, has died at the age of 69.
Authorities confirmed Carter was found unresponsive at his home in Duarte, California. No foul play is suspected, and an official cause of death has not yet been released.
A Career Spanning Decades
Born Thomas Kent Carter, T.K. Carter built a career in film and television that spanned more than four decades. He became a cult favorite portraying Nauls in John Carpenter’s 1982 horror classic The Thing, a film that continues to influence the genre today.
Television audiences widely remember Carter for his role as Mike Fulton on Punky Brewster, where his comedic timing and grounded performances helped make the show a lasting favorite of the era.
Film and Television Legacy
In addition to his best-known roles, Carter appeared in films such as Runaway Train, Ski Patrol, and Space Jam. His television work included guest appearances on a wide range of series throughout the 1980s, 1990s, and beyond.
Known within the industry as a reliable and versatile performer, Carter often brought authenticity and warmth to supporting roles that left a lasting impression, even in brief appearances.
Remembering T.K. Carter
As news of his passing spreads, fans and colleagues alike are reflecting on T.K. Carter’s contributions to film and television. While he may not have always been the leading name on the marquee, his work helped shape stories that continue to be watched and appreciated by new generations.
T.K. Carter is remembered for his enduring performances, professional dedication, and the quiet but meaningful legacy he leaves behind.
Related Coverage
- Los Angeles Times: Actor T.K. Carter Dies at 69
- People Magazine: T.K. Carter, ‘The Thing’ and ‘Punky Brewster’ Actor, Dead at 69
- Entertainment Weekly: T.K. Carter, ‘Punky Brewster’ and ‘The Thing’ Actor, Dies
- ABC News: Veteran Actor T.K. Carter Dies at 69
Stay with STM Daily News for updates to this developing story and more independent coverage of entertainment, history, and culture. Visit www.stmdailynews.com for the latest.
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News
Gregory Outreach Services Expands Food Access with Addition of Third Refrigerated Van
Gregory Outreach Services expands its mission to fight food insecurity with the addition of a third refrigerated van, doubling food access for low-income seniors and veterans in Phoenix.
Last Updated on January 8, 2026 by Daily News Staff
Gregory Outreach Services’ newest refrigerated delivery van expands food access for low-income seniors and veterans across Phoenix.
Phoenix, AZ — Gregory Outreach Services has taken a major step forward in its mission to fight food insecurity with the addition of a third refrigerated delivery van, significantly expanding its capacity to serve low-income seniors and veterans across the Phoenix area.
The new refrigerated van was made possible through the support of a generous anonymous donor. The expansion is further strengthened by the continued generosity of the BHHS Legacy Foundation, who donated fresh produce to support the organization’s growing distribution efforts.
As rising food costs and inflation continue to place pressure on individuals living on fixed incomes, the need for reliable access to nutritious food has never been greater. This latest addition to the organization’s mobile fleet allows Gregory Outreach Services to double the number of individuals served, while maintaining strict food safety and quality standards.
“As the cost of living continues to rise, more seniors and veterans are struggling to afford nutritious food,” said Diana Gregory, Founder and CEO of Gregory Outreach Services. “This van allows us to bridge a widening gap for individuals living on fixed incomes, many of whom face mobility challenges and limited access to fresh food options.”
Meeting a Growing Community Need
Gregory Outreach Services works directly with seniors and veterans who are disproportionately affected by inflation, medical expenses, and transportation barriers. For many, simply reaching a grocery store can be a challenge. Refrigerated vehicles are essential to ensuring that fresh fruits and vegetables arrive safely and consistently at senior housing communities, veteran shelters, and community distribution sites.
“This third van complements the two already in operation and represents a critical milestone in our growth,” Gregory added. “We are deeply grateful to our anonymous donor for investing in our mission, and to BHHS Legacy Foundation’s Board of Directors and its CEO, Jerry Wissink for Legacy’s generosity in donating fresh produce. Together, this support allows us to scale our impact and respond to the increasing needs of our community.”
Expanding Impact While Preserving Dignity
With an expanded fleet and increased food supply, Gregory Outreach Services is better positioned to address food insecurity, promote healthier outcomes, and serve seniors and veterans with dignity, respect, and care. The organization’s mobile delivery model ensures help reaches those who need it most — directly and reliably.
About Gregory Outreach Services
Gregory Outreach Services is a nonprofit organization dedicated to improving health outcomes for low-income seniors and veterans through mobile produce delivery, nutrition education, and community-based wellness programs. By bringing fresh food directly to those most in need, the organization works to reduce food insecurity and strengthen community wellness.
For more information, visit dianagregory.com.
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Economy
How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Egg Market: Egg prices surged during the U.S. bird flu outbreak as laying hen inventories collapsed. Here’s how flock recovery is helping stabilize egg prices today.
How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Few grocery items frustrated American consumers over the past two years quite like eggs. Once an inexpensive staple, egg prices surged to historic highs following a prolonged outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu. Today, however, prices appear to be stabilizing. Here’s how the crisis unfolded — and why relief is finally showing up at the checkout line.The Bird Flu Crisis and Its Impact on Egg Supply
Beginning in 2022, the United States experienced one of the most severe bird flu outbreaks in modern history. The virus spread rapidly through poultry farms, forcing producers to cull millions of birds to prevent further transmission. Egg-laying hens were hit especially hard, leading to a sharp drop in egg production nationwide. By 2024 and into early 2025, the cumulative losses totaled well over one hundred million birds. With fewer hens producing eggs, supply tightened dramatically, and prices soared. At the peak of the crisis, consumers in some regions saw egg prices climb above six dollars per dozen.Why Egg Prices Stayed High for So Long
Unlike other agricultural products, egg production cannot rebound quickly after a disruption. When laying hens are lost, they must be replaced with young birds known as pullets. These pullets require approximately four to six months to mature before they begin producing eggs. Even after farms were cleared to restock, producers faced additional challenges. Strict biosecurity measures, concerns about reinfection, and the logistical complexity of rebuilding flocks slowed the recovery process. As a result, egg supplies remained tight long after the initial outbreaks subsided.Laying Hen Inventory Recovery Takes Shape
By mid to late 2025, signs of recovery became more apparent. Producers gradually increased pullet placements, and national laying hen inventories began to grow. While the total number of hens had not yet returned to pre-outbreak levels, the upward trend marked an important turning point. This steady rebuilding of flocks meant more eggs entering the supply chain. Wholesale markets responded first, with prices easing as inventories improved. Retail prices soon followed, signaling that the worst of the supply shock was beginning to fade.Egg Prices Begin to Stabilize
As laying hen inventories recovered, egg prices moved away from their record highs. By late 2025 and into early 2026, prices at many grocery stores had fallen noticeably compared to peak levels. While costs remain somewhat higher than pre-pandemic norms, the extreme volatility seen during the height of the bird flu crisis has largely subsided. Additional factors also helped stabilize the market. Federal and state efforts to strengthen biosecurity, limited egg imports to supplement domestic supply, and improved disease monitoring all contributed to a more balanced egg market.What This Means for Consumers
For consumers, the stabilization of egg prices offers a welcome sense of normalcy. Shoppers are less likely to encounter sudden price spikes, and eggs are once again becoming a predictable part of grocery budgets. While prices may not return to the ultra-low levels seen years ago, the recovery of laying hen inventories suggests that the egg market is on firmer footing. Continued vigilance against future outbreaks will be critical, but for now, the outlook is far more stable than it was during the height of the bird flu crisis.Looking Ahead
The bird flu outbreak served as a reminder of how vulnerable food systems can be to disease disruptions. Thanks to gradual flock rebuilding and improved supply conditions, egg prices are stabilizing — a sign that recovery, while slow, is real. If current trends continue, consumers and producers alike may finally be moving past one of the most turbulent chapters in the modern egg market.Further Reading & Sources
- USDA – Avian Influenza Updates and Poultry Industry Impact
- USDA Economic Research Service – Egg Prices and Food Inflation Data
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Consumer Price Index (Egg Prices)
- Associated Press – Coverage of the U.S. Bird Flu Outbreak
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service – Egg Market and Wholesale Reports
- CDC – Avian Influenza Information and Monitorin
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