News
How AI can improve storm surge forecasts to help save lives
storm surge forecasts: Hurricanes cause significant damage due to storm surge, which is influenced by wind and pressure. AI can enhance storm surge predictions, providing faster, more accurate information to aid evacuations and preparedness for coastal communities at risk.
Navid Tahvildari, Florida International University
Hurricanes are America’s most destructive natural hazards, causing more deaths and property damage than any other type of disaster. Since 1980, these powerful tropical storms have done more than US$1.5 trillion in damage and killed more than 7,000 people.
The No. 1 cause of the damages and deaths from hurricanes is storm surge.
Storm surge is the rise in the ocean’s water level, caused by a combination of powerful winds pushing water toward the coastline and reduced air pressure within the hurricane compared to the pressure outside of it. In addition to these factors, waves breaking close to the coast causes sea level to increase near the coastline, a phenomenon we call wave setup, which can be an important component of storm surge.
Accurate storm surge predictions are critical for giving coastal residents time to evacuate and giving emergency responders time to prepare. But storm surge forecasts at high resolution can be slow.
As a coastal engineer, I study how storm surge and waves interact with natural and human-made features on the ocean floor and coast and ways to mitigate their impact. I have used physics-based models for coastal flooding and have recently been exploring ways that artificial intelligence can improve the speed of storm surge forecasting.
How storm surge is forecast today
Today, operational storm surge forecasts rely on hydrodynamic models, which are based on the physics of water flow.
These models use current environmental conditions – such as how fast the storm is moving toward shore, its wind speed and direction, the timing of the tide, and the shape of the seafloor and the landscape – to compute the projected surge height and determine which locations are most at risk.
Hydrodynamic models have substantially improved in recent decades, and computers have become significantly more powerful, such that rapid low-resolution simulations are possible over very large areas. However, high-resolution simulation that provide neighborhood-level detail can take several hours to run.
Those hours can be critical for communities at risk to evacuate safely and for emergency responders to prepare adequately.
To forecast storm surge across a wide area, modelers break up the target area into many small pieces that together form a computational grid or mesh. Picture pixels in an image. The smaller the grid pieces, or cells, the higher the resolution and the more accurate the forecast. However, creating many small cells across a large area requires greater computing power, so forecasting storm surge takes longer as a result.
Forecasters can use low-resolution computer grids to speed up the process, but that reduces accuracy, leaving communities with more uncertainty about their flood risk.
AI can help speed that up.
How AI can create better forecasts
There are two main sources of uncertainty in storm surge predictions.
One involves the data fed into the computer model. A hurricane’s storm track and wind field, which determine where it will make landfall and how intense the surge will be, are still hard to forecast accurately more than a few days in advance. Changes to the coast and sea floor, such as from channel dredging or loss of salt marshes, mangroves or sand dunes, can affect the resistance that storm surge will face.
The second uncertainty involves the resolution of the computational grid, over which the mathematical equations of the surge and wave motion are solved. The resolution determines how well the model sees changes in landscape elevation and land cover and accounts for them, and at how much granularity the physics of hurricane surge and waves is solved.
AI models can produce detailed predictions faster. For example, engineers and scientists have developed AI models based on deep neural networks that can predict water levels along the coastline quickly and accurately by using data about the wind field. In some cases, these models have been more accurate than traditional hydrodynamic models.
AI can also develop forecasts for areas with little historic data, or be used to understand extreme conditions that may not have occurred there before.
For these forecasts, physics-based models can be used to generate synthetic data to train the AI on scenarios that might be possible but haven’t actually happened. Once an AI model is trained on both the historic and synthetic data, it can quickly generate surge forecasts using details about the wind and atmospheric pressure.
Training the AI on data from hydrodynamic models can also improve its ability to quickly generate inundation risk maps showing which streets or houses are likely to flood in extreme events that may not have a historical precedent but could happen in the future.
The future of AI for hurricane forecasting
AI is already being used in operational storm surge forecasts in a limited way, mainly to augment the commonly used physics-based models.
In addition to improving those methods, my team and other researchers have been developing ways to use AI for storm surge prediction using observed data, assessing the damage after hurricanes and processing camera images to deduce flood intensity. That can fill a critical gap in the data needed for validating storm surge models at granular levels.
As artificial intelligence models rapidly spread through every aspect of our lives and more data becomes available for training them, the technology offers potential to improve hurricane and storm surge forecasting in the future, giving coastal communities faster and more detailed warnings about the risks on the way.
Navid Tahvildari, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida International University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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News Brief
Earthquake Swarm Shakes Southern California Near Salton Sea
Earthquake Swarm: A swarm of earthquakes near California’s Salton Sea and Brawley area has prompted increased monitoring by seismologists as hundreds of tremors shake the region.
A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling Southern California near the Salton Sea, drawing attention from residents and seismologists across the region.
Salton Sea earthquake swarm?
The activity is centered near Brawley in Imperial County, an area known for frequent seismic movement due to its location within the Brawley Seismic Zone. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, hundreds of small earthquakes have been recorded over the past several days, with the strongest reaching a magnitude of approximately 4.7.
Residents throughout Imperial Valley, parts of Riverside County, and even portions of Arizona reported feeling shaking from several of the larger quakes. Minor incidents such as falling objects and brief power disruptions were also reported, though no major injuries or widespread structural damage have been confirmed at this time.
The region sits near the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is considered one of California’s most geologically active areas. Scientists say earthquake swarms are relatively common near the Salton Sea because of the interaction between tectonic fault systems and geothermal activity beneath the surface.
While experts continue to monitor the situation closely, they emphasize that earthquake swarms do not necessarily indicate that a larger earthquake is imminent. However, officials encourage residents to review emergency preparedness plans, secure heavy furniture, and keep emergency supplies ready.
The Salton Sea region has experienced similar seismic swarms in the past, making it an important area of study for earthquake researchers and emergency management agencies.
For continued updates on this developing story and other regional news, visit STM Daily News.
Related External Links
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) – Earthquake Monitoring
- California Institute of Technology (Caltech)
- California Earthquake Preparedness Guide
- Ready.gov – Earthquake Safety Tips
- USGS – Salton Trough and Seismic Activity
Stay informed with the latest breaking news, trending stories, and real-time updates from around the world on STM Daily News. Visit our Stories This Moment page for continuously updated coverage on major events, technology, transportation, science, entertainment, and more.
Authors
Consumer Corner
Frustration at the Pump: Why Americans are Exploring Electric Vehicles
Exploring Electric Vehicles: For more than one-third of Americans, one simple number is leading them to research electric vehicles: the final tally at a recent gas station fill-up. The pump is no longer just the close of a sale; for a growing number of drivers, it’s where questions begin.
Frustration at the Pump: Why Americans are Exploring Electric Vehicles
(Feature Impact) For more than one-third of Americans, one simple number is leading them to research electric vehicles: the final tally at a recent gas station fill-up.
This, according to new research from Hyundai Motor America, isn’t a hypothetical situation. In fact, 23% of respondents reported it’s happened to them more than once. For nearly half of Americans, pulling up to the pump now brings frustration or outright dread.
Many drivers have a number in mind where the math begins shifting, and once the shift happens, it rarely goes away. The pump is no longer just the close of a sale; for a growing number of drivers, it’s where questions begin.
For 23% of those surveyed, $5 per gallon is where they would start considering alternatives to a gas-powered vehicle. While some say they wouldn’t consider alternatives based on gas costs at all, this meaningful share of Americans points toward a specific tipping point.
Some begin by comparing models or brands while others find themselves on an automaker’s website, further along in the process than they initially expected to be. Most don’t act on this impulse right away, but drivers are increasingly caught somewhere between curious and committed – and 46% of those surveyed said they’d be likely to seriously research an EV.
The desire to leave the pump behind, which an EV would allow for, is a deal nearly half of respondents said they would take. However, the transition isn’t frictionless as charging access and range anxiety remain the top concerns for 28% of potential buyers.
While the move toward electric vehicles is often framed as a long-term decision made with spreadsheets and financial planning, for many Americans, it’s beginning somewhere smaller: a routine fuel stop and an eye-opening receipt.
If you’ve found yourself dismayed at the pump, find more information on electric vehicles at HyundaiUSA.com.
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock
eSOURCE:
Hyundai
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Automotive
Gas prices have a $5 tipping point: New research shows when Americans start looking at EVs
Gas prices have a $5 tipping point: New research shows when Americans start looking at EVs
(Tiffany Miller for Hyundai) There is a moment at the gas pump when the number staring back at you stops feeling routine.
You expect the total to land somewhere familiar. And then, one day, it doesn’t. Not dramatically higher. Just high enough to feel different. Enough to make you pause before tapping your card.
According to new research from Hyundai Motor America, that moment is not hypothetical. For more than a third of American drivers, it has already happened. And for many, once it does, something shifts that does not quite shift back.
For 42% of Americans, pulling up to a pump now brings frustration or outright dread. Most have made peace with the routine, even if 39% describe their gas spend as “frustrating but expected.”
The experience at the pump hasn’t changed. The emotional weight of it has.
Most drivers have a number in their head where the math shifts. For 23% of those surveyed, $5 per gallon is where they would seriously start considering alternatives to a gas-powered vehicle. Not everyone will be moved by price, and 29% say they would not consider alternatives based on gas costs at all. But for a meaningful share of Americans, the tipping point is specific. It is a number on a sign, and many have seen it before.
More than one-third of Americans surveyed say a recent fill-up has already prompted them to research electric vehicles, and 23% say it has happened more than once.
What comes next is rarely dramatic. Some compare models or brands. Some search online. Some find themselves on an automaker’s website, further along than they expected to be. Most do not act on this impulse right away. But for a growing number, the pump is where the question starts.
The shift is real but uneven. If gas prices rose significantly and stayed high, 46% of those surveyed say they would be likely to seriously research an EV. Yet most Americans are still somewhere between curious and committed.
The pitch for electric vehicles is simple. Never stop for gas again. Nearly half of Americans say they would absolutely take that deal.
The transition is not frictionless. Charging access and range anxiety remain the top concern for 28% of potential buyers, and simple comfort with the status quo runs just as deep.
The desire to leave the pump behind is real. So is everything standing in the way.
The move toward electric vehicles is often framed as a long-term decision made with spreadsheets and incentive calculators, but for many Americans, it begins somewhere smaller. A routine fuel stop. A number that lands differently. A moment of hesitation before the receipt prints.
Methodology
Hyundai Motor America commissioned Atomik Research to conduct an online survey of 1,000 adults throughout the United States. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted between April 3 and April 6, 2026.
Atomik Research, part of 4media group, is a creative market research agency.
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock (woman at gas pump)
SOURCE:
Hyundai
Welcome to the Consumer Corner section of STM Daily News, your ultimate destination for savvy shopping and informed decision-making! Dive into a treasure trove of insights and reviews covering everything from the hottest toys that spark joy in your little ones to the latest electronic gadgets that simplify your life. Explore our comprehensive guides on stylish home furnishings, discover smart tips for buying a home or enhancing your living space with creative improvement ideas, and get the lowdown on the best cars through our detailed auto reviews. Whether you’re making a major purchase or simply seeking inspiration, the Consumer Corner is here to empower you every step of the way—unlock the keys to becoming a smarter consumer today!
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