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Atmospheric rivers are shifting poleward, reshaping global weather patterns

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Atmospheric rivers
Atmospheric rivers are long filaments of moisture that curve poleward. Several are visible in this satellite image. Bin Guan, NASA/JPL-Caltech and UCLA

Zhe Li, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Atmospheric rivers – those long, narrow bands of water vapor in the sky that bring heavy rain and storms to the U.S. West Coast and many other regions – are shifting toward higher latitudes, and that’s changing weather patterns around the world.

The shift is worsening droughts in some regions, intensifying flooding in others, and putting water resources that many communities rely on at risk. When atmospheric rivers reach far northward into the Arctic, they can also melt sea ice, affecting the global climate.

In a new study published in Science Advances, University of California, Santa Barbara, climate scientist Qinghua Ding and I show that atmospheric rivers have shifted about 6 to 10 degrees toward the two poles over the past four decades.

Atmospheric rivers on the move

Atmospheric rivers aren’t just a U.S West Coast thing. They form in many parts of the world and provide over half of the mean annual runoff in these regions, including the U.S. Southeast coasts and West Coast, Southeast Asia, New Zealand, northern Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom and south-central Chile.

California relies on atmospheric rivers for up to 50% of its yearly rainfall. A series of winter atmospheric rivers there can bring enough rain and snow to end a drought, as parts of the region saw in 2023.

Atmospheric rivers
Atmospheric rivers occur all over the world, as this animation of global satellite data from February 2017 shows. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

While atmospheric rivers share a similar origin – moisture supply from the tropics – atmospheric instability of the jet stream allows them to curve poleward in different ways. No two atmospheric rivers are exactly alike.

What particularly interests climate scientists, including us, is the collective behavior of atmospheric rivers. Atmospheric rivers are commonly seen in the extratropics, a region between the latitudes of 30 and 50 degrees in both hemispheres that includes most of the continental U.S., southern Australia and Chile.

Our study shows that atmospheric rivers have been shifting poleward over the past four decades. In both hemispheres, activity has increased along 50 degrees north and 50 degrees south, while it has decreased along 30 degrees north and 30 degrees south since 1979. In North America, that means more atmospheric rivers drenching British Columbia and Alaska.

A global chain reaction

One main reason for this shift is changes in sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific. Since 2000, waters in the eastern tropical Pacific have had a cooling tendency, which affects atmospheric circulation worldwide. This cooling, often associated with La Niña conditions, pushes atmospheric rivers toward the poles.

The poleward movement of atmospheric rivers can be explained as a chain of interconnected processes.

During La Niña conditions, when sea surface temperatures cool in the eastern tropical Pacific, the Walker circulation – giant loops of air that affect precipitation as they rise and fall over different parts of the tropics – strengthens over the western Pacific. This stronger circulation causes the tropical rainfall belt to expand. The expanded tropical rainfall, combined with changes in atmospheric eddy patterns, results in high-pressure anomalies and wind patterns that steer atmospheric rivers farther poleward.

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An animation of satellite data shows sea surface temperatures changing over months along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. When they're warmer than normal, that indicates El Niño forming. Cooler than normal indicates La Nina.
La Niña, with cooler water in the eastern Pacific, fades, and El Niño, with warmer water, starts to form in the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2023. NOAA Climate.gov

Conversely, during El Niño conditions, with warmer sea surface temperatures, the mechanism operates in the opposite direction, shifting atmospheric rivers so they don’t travel as far from the equator.

The shifts raise important questions about how climate models predict future changes in atmospheric rivers. Current models might underestimate natural variability, such as changes in the tropical Pacific, which can significantly affect atmospheric rivers. Understanding this connection can help forecasters make better predictions about future rainfall patterns and water availability.

Why does this poleward shift matter?

A shift in atmospheric rivers can have big effects on local climates.

In the subtropics, where atmospheric rivers are becoming less common, the result could be longer droughts and less water. Many areas, such as California and southern Brazil, depend on atmospheric rivers for rainfall to fill reservoirs and support farming. Without this moisture, these areas could face more water shortages, putting stress on communities, farms and ecosystems.

In higher latitudes, atmospheric rivers moving poleward could lead to more extreme rainfall, flooding and landslides in places such as the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Europe, and even in polar regions.

A long narrow band of moisture sweeps up toward California, crossing hundreds of miles of Pacific Ocean.
A satellite image on Feb. 20, 2017, shows an atmospheric river stretching from Hawaii to California, where it brought drenching rain. NASA/Earth Observatory/Jesse Allen

In the Arctic, more atmospheric rivers could speed up sea ice melting, adding to global warming and affecting animals that rely on the ice. An earlier study I was involved in found that the trend in summertime atmospheric river activity may contribute 36% of the increasing trend in summer moisture over the entire Arctic since 1979.

What it means for the future

So far, the shifts we have seen still mainly reflect changes due to natural processes, but human-induced global warming also plays a role. Global warming is expected to increase the overall frequency and intensity of atmospheric rivers because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.

How that might change as the planet continues to warm is less clear. Predicting future changes remains uncertain due largely to the difficulty in predicting the natural swings between El Niño and La Niña, which play an important role in atmospheric river shifts.

As the world gets warmer, atmospheric rivers – and the critical rains they bring – will keep changing course. We need to understand and adapt to these changes so communities can keep thriving in a changing climate.

Zhe Li, Postdoctoral Researcher in Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The science section of our news blog STM Daily News provides readers with captivating and up-to-date information on the latest scientific discoveries, breakthroughs, and innovations across various fields. We offer engaging and accessible content, ensuring that readers with different levels of scientific knowledge can stay informed. Whether it’s exploring advancements in medicine, astronomy, technology, or environmental sciences, our science section strives to shed light on the intriguing world of scientific exploration and its profound impact on our daily lives. From thought-provoking articles to informative interviews with experts in the field, STM Daily News Science offers a harmonious blend of factual reporting, analysis, and exploration, making it a go-to source for science enthusiasts and curious minds alike. https://stmdailynews.com/category/science/

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Science

October Meteor Showers Give Phoenix Skywatchers a Reason to Look Up

Phoenix skywatchers have several chances to catch October’s meteor showers. Here’s when to watch the Taurids and Orionids—and how moonlight affects the view.

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Last Updated on October 10, 2026 by Daily News Staff

PHOENIX — October is bringing several opportunities to spot shooting stars over the Valley, with the Draconids reaching their October 8–9 peak and more meteor activity ahead.

The Draconids remain active through October 10, although viewers should expect a light display as the peak passes. Under favorable conditions, the shower typically produces only a handful of meteors per hour. timeanddate.com

Illustration of Orionid meteor shower above Arizona mountains and saguaro cacti, with a sky chart labeling Orion, Betelgeuse, and the shower’s radiant.
An illustrated view of the Orionid meteor shower above the Arizona desert. The shower peaks October 21–22, 2026.

Next, the Southern Taurids have an annual activity peak around October 14. Known for occasional bright fireballs, the shower continues into November. The stronger Orionids peak on the night of October 21 into the morning of October 22, typically producing 10–20 meteors per hour under dark skies. A bright Moon will interfere with this year’s display. American Meteor Society

Phoenix Meteor Showers October 2026: When to Watch

The Orionids originate from debris left by Halley’s Comet. For Phoenix viewers, the best opportunity will be after moonset and before dawn, weather permitting. City lights will further reduce the number visible. amsmeteors.org

NASA recommends finding a viewing area away from streetlights, allowing about 30 minutes for eyes to adjust, and watching a broad stretch of sky. No telescope is needed—just a comfortable chair and patience. NASA Science

ECurious about what’s happening above us? Explore more space stories and science explainers in The Knowledge at STM Daily News.xplore more space, science and everyday

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Local News

Maricopa Boil Water Advisory Lifted After Negative E. Coli Tests

Maricopa boil water advisory lifted: Global Water–Santa Cruz Water Company customers in Maricopa can resume normal tap water use after follow-up testing found no E. coli.

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MARICOPA, Ariz. — A precautionary boil water advisory for Global Water–Santa Cruz Water Company customers in the city of Maricopa was lifted Thursday, October 8, after repeat testing found no E. coli in water samples. The utility announced the cancellation at approximately 2 p.m. Arizona time. 

Stainless steel pot of water at a rolling boil on a kitchen stovetop, with steam rising above the bubbling surface. Maricopa boil water advisory lifted
Water boils in a kitchen pot in this illustrative image. Maricopa’s precautionary boil water advisory was lifted October 8 after follow-up tests found no E. coli.

The advisory was issued October 7 after two preliminary tests indicated possible contamination. Customers were temporarily instructed to use bottled water or boil tap water for at least one minute before drinking it or using it for food preparation. 

With follow-up results negative, affected customers no longer need to boil water for drinking, cooking, making ice, brushing teeth or washing dishes, according to the utility. 

https://stmdailynews.com/chicken-salad-chick-foundation-presents-record-breaking-donation-to-cure-childhood-cancer/

The advisory affected the utility’s customers in the city of Maricopa, located in Pinal County. It was not a countywide warning for Maricopa County or Phoenix. 

Residents can visit Global Water Resources’ official notice page⁠ for updates or call 866-940-1102 with questions. 

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Automotive

Hyundai Unveils All-New Tucson With Bold New Look, Smarter Hybrid Tech

Hyundai has unveiled the all-new Tucson, bringing bolder styling, a next-generation hybrid targeting up to 42 mpg, AI-powered infotainment and the rugged new XRT PRO.

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Hyundai’s popular compact SUV gets a major makeover with a targeted 42 mpg hybrid, AI-powered infotainment and a more adventurous XRT PRO model.

All-new Hyundai Tucson SUV featuring Hyundai’s Art of Steel design and redesigned exterior styling.
The all-new Hyundai Tucson introduces bolder styling, next-generation hybrid technology and Hyundai’s new Pleos Connect infotainment system.

Hyundai is preparing the Tucson for its next chapter, unveiling an all-new version of its popular SUV with a dramatically revised design, next-generation hybrid technology and a new digital experience built around artificial intelligence.

Hyundai Motor Company introduced the all-new Tucson in New York City against the Manhattan skyline, calling the redesigned model its “boldest SUV” yet.

For buyers, however, the bigger story may be what lies beneath the new styling. Hyundai is combining improved hybrid efficiency, more advanced infotainment and additional off-road capability in an effort to make the Tucson equally comfortable handling weekday commuting, family duty and weekend adventures.

A Bolder Tucson Takes Shape

The new Tucson adopts Hyundai’s “Art of Steel” design philosophy, giving the SUV a more muscular and purposeful appearance.

Rather than simply updating the outgoing Tucson, Hyundai appears to be pushing the model toward a stronger SUV identity while maintaining the everyday practicality that has helped make the Tucson one of the company’s most important global vehicles.

The new exterior is complemented by a redesigned cabin emphasizing space, storage and easier-to-use controls. Hyundai says the interior includes flexible storage solutions and available relaxation features designed to make longer trips more comfortable.

That combination could be important in a compact SUV segment where shoppers increasingly expect vehicles to serve several roles at once — commuter, family vehicle, road-trip machine and recreational vehicle.

Hyundai Unveils Bold New Tucson With Hybrid Power

Hybrid Targets Up to 42 MPG

One of the most significant changes is Hyundai’s Next-generation Hybrid System.

Hyundai says the new system is targeting fuel economy of up to 42 mpg, while also attempting to preserve responsive driving performance.

If that target carries through to production specifications and official fuel-economy testing, it could make the Tucson Hybrid particularly attractive to drivers who want SUV practicality without moving to a fully electric vehicle.

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The strategy also reflects a broader automotive trend. Hybrids have increasingly become an important middle ground for consumers looking to reduce fuel consumption without changing their driving and charging habits.

Final EPA fuel-economy figures and U.S.-market specifications will ultimately determine how the new Tucson compares with its competitors.

Pleos Connect Brings AI Into the Cabin

Technology is another major focus of the redesign.

The Tucson introduces Hyundai’s Pleos Connect next-generation infotainment platform, which incorporates Gleo AI, an expanding app marketplace and a redesigned user interface.

Hyundai describes Pleos Connect as an evolving digital platform rather than simply a conventional infotainment system.

That could allow the Tucson’s capabilities to expand over time as software, applications and connected services develop.

The important question for drivers will be whether all that technology actually makes everyday tasks easier. Automakers continue adding increasingly sophisticated screens and software to their vehicles, but intuitive controls and minimal driver distraction remain just as important as the number of available features.

https://stmdailynews.com/jeep-goes-back-to-1945-with-the-2027-wrangler-jl-2a/

Tucson XRT PRO Heads Further Off the Pavement

Hyundai is also expanding the Tucson’s adventurous side with the introduction of the Tucson XRT PRO.

The more rugged model adds enhanced off-road technologies, including Hyundai’s first Smart Terrain Assist, or STA.

The system is designed to help the vehicle adapt to changing terrain and provide drivers with additional confidence when leaving paved roads.

The XRT PRO could broaden the Tucson’s appeal among buyers who like the practicality of a compact crossover but want more capability for camping, outdoor recreation and light off-road travel.

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More detailed specifications will help determine just how far the XRT PRO moves beyond the appearance-oriented adventure packages commonly offered in the compact SUV market.

A Major Vehicle in Hyundai’s Bigger Product Push

The importance of the new Tucson extends beyond a single model.

“Millions of families around the world count on the Hyundai TUCSON, and this is the best one we have ever built,” Hyundai Motor Company President and CEO José Muñoz said during the announcement.

Muñoz also said the Tucson begins what Hyundai describes as the most ambitious product offensive in its history.

The automaker plans to introduce more than 100 new or refreshed vehicles globally by 2030, including 58 in North America.

That makes the Tucson something of an opening act for Hyundai’s next generation of vehicles.

The Tucson Enters Its Next Era

Compact SUVs remain some of the most versatile vehicles on the market, and Hyundai appears determined to keep the Tucson competitive by improving several areas simultaneously rather than relying on styling alone.

https://stmdailynews.com/slate-truck-moves-closer-to-reality-as-december-2026-deliveries-come-into-view/

A targeted 42-mpg hybrid powertrain could appeal to fuel-conscious drivers. Pleos Connect and Gleo AI represent Hyundai’s push toward increasingly software-driven vehicles. Meanwhile, the new XRT PRO gives the Tucson lineup a more adventurous option.

There are still important details to come, including complete U.S. specifications, EPA-certified fuel economy, trim levels, pricing and availability.

But Hyundai’s message is already clear: the next Tucson is intended to be more than a routine redesign.

It is being positioned as a showcase for where Hyundai believes the modern SUV is headed — bolder in appearance, smarter inside and more efficient underneath.

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Source: Hyundai Motor Company. Specifications and fuel-economy figures discussed by Hyundai are preliminary and may vary by market. Final U.S. specifications and EPA ratings may differ.

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