An oracle erred badly. The most impressive results were turned in by a little-known company in Brazil. A nagging problem reemerged, and some media critics turned profane in their assessments.
So it went for pollsters in the 2024 presidential election. Their collective performance, while not stellar, was improved from that of four years earlier. Overall, polls signaled a close outcome in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
That is what the election produced: a modest win for Trump.
This time, CNN’s final national poll said the race was deadlocked – an outcome anticipated by six other pollsters, according to data compiled by RealClearPolitics.
The most striking discrepancy this year was the Marist College poll, conducted for NPR and PBS. It estimated Harris held a 4-point lead nationally at campaign’s end.
Comedian Jon Stewart gave harsh voice to such sentiments, saying of pollsters on his late-night program on election night, “I don’t ever want to fucking hear from you again. Ever. … You don’t know shit about shit, and I don’t care for you.”Comedian Jon Stewart doesn’t like pollsters and had some blistering comments about them on election night. Screenshot, YouTube
Megyn Kelly, a former Fox News host, also denounced pollsters, declaring on her podcast the day after the election: “Polling is a lie. They don’t know anything.”
Two factors seemed to encourage such derision – a widely discussed survey of Iowa voters released the weekend before the election and Trump’s sweep of the seven states where the outcome turned.
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The Iowa poll injected shock and surprise into the campaign’s endgame, reporting that Harris had taken a 3-point lead in the state over Trump. The result was likened to a “bombshell” and its implications seemed clear: If Harris had opened a lead in a state with Iowa’s partisan profile, her prospects of winning elsewhere seemed strong, especially in the Great Lakes swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The survey was conducted for the Des Moines Register by J. Ann Selzer, a veteran Iowa-based pollster with an outstanding reputation in opinion research. In a commentary in The New York Times in mid-September, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson declared Selzer “the oracle of Iowa.” Rachel Maddow of MSNBC praised Selzer’s polls before the election for their “uncanny predictive accuracy.” Ratings released in June by data guru Nate Silver gave Selzer’s polls an A-plus grade.
Selzer said afterward she will “be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that (discrepancy) happened.”
It is possible, other pollsters suggested, that Selzer’s reliance on telephone-based surveying contributed to the polling failure. “Phone polling alone … isn’t going to reach low-propensity voters or politically disengaged nonwhite men,” Tom Lubbock and James Johnson wrote in a commentary for The Wall Street Journal.
Trump’s sweep of the seven vigorously contested swing states surely contributed to perceptions that polls had misfired again.
According to RealClearPolitics, Harris held slender, end-of-campaign polling leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
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Trump won them all, an outcome no pollster anticipated – except for AtlasIntel of Sao Paulo, Brazil, a firm “about which little is known,” as The New Republic noted.
AtlasIntel estimated Trump was ahead in all seven swing states by margins that hewed closely to the voting outcomes. In none of the swing states did AtlasIntel’s polling deviate from the final vote tally by more than 1.3 points, an impressive performance.
AtlasIntel did not respond to email requests I sent requesting information about its background and polling technique. The company describes itself as “a leading innovator in online polling” and says it uses “a proprietary methodology,” without revealing much about it.
Its founder and chief executive is Andrei Roman, who earned a doctorate in government at Harvard University. Roman took to X, formerly Twitter, in the election’s aftermath to post a chart that touted AtlasIntel as “the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election.”
A significant question facing pollsters this year – their great known unknown – was whether modifications made to sampling techniques would allow them to avoid underestimating Trump’s support, as they had in 2016 and 2020.
Misjudging Trump’s backing is a nagging problem for pollsters. The results of the 2024 election indicate that the shortcoming persists. By margins ranging from 0.9 points to 2.7 points, polls overall understated Trump’s support in the seven swing states, for example.
Some polls misjudged Trump’s backing by even greater margins. CNN, for example, underestimated Trump’s vote by 4.3 points in North Carolina, by more than 6 points in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona.
Results that misfire in the same direction suggest that adjustments to sampling methodologies were inadequate or ineffective for pollsters in seeking to reach Trump backers of all stripes.
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
Hollywood Legend Rob Reiner and Wife Found Dead; Son in Custody
Renowned filmmaker Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele Singer Reiner, were found dead in their Los Angeles home in a reported homicide. Police have arrested their son in connection with the case, and tributes are pouring in.
Director Rob Reiner participates in a discussion following a screening of the film LBJ at the LBJ Presidential Library in Austin, Texas on Saturday October 22, 2016 On Saturday evening October 22, 2016, the LBJ Presidential Library held a sneak peek of Rob Reiner’s new filmÊLBJ, starring Woody Harrelson as the 36th president. The film, which premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in September, chronicles the life and times of Lyndon Johnson who would inherit the presidency at one of the most fraught moments in American history. Following the screening, director Rob Reiner, actor Woody Harrelson, and writer Joey Hartstone joined LBJ Library Director Mark Updegrove on stage for a conversation about the film. LBJ Library photo by Jay Godwin 10/22/2016
Hollywood Legend Rob Reiner and Wife Found Dead; Son in Custody
December 15, 2025
Renowned filmmaker and actor Rob Reiner, 78, and his wife Michele Singer Reiner, 68, were found dead in their Brentwood, Los Angeles home on Sunday, authorities say. Emergency responders were called to the residence Sunday afternoon, where both were discovered with fatal wounds consistent with a stabbing. Police are treating the case as a double homicide.
Los Angeles police arrested the couple’s 32-year-old son, Nick Reiner, in connection with the deaths. He is being held in custody as investigators continue to piece together the circumstances surrounding the incident.
2016 SAMHSA Voice Awards
Reiner was one of Hollywood’s most influential figures, known for his work as a director, producer and actor. His career spanned decades, from early television fame to directing beloved films that shaped American cinema.
Friends, colleagues and public figures have begun sharing tributes and reactions to the news as the investigation is ongoing.
More details will be updated as they become available.
🇯🇵 Japan Earthquake Update — What You Need to Know (December 2025)
Japan Earthquake Update — A powerful magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck off the coast of Aomori, Japan, triggering tsunami warnings and a rare megaquake advisory. Here are the latest updates on damage, aftershocks, government response, and ongoing seismic risks as of December 2025.
🇯🇵 Japan Earthquake Update — What You Need to Know (December 2025)
On December 8, 2025, a powerful earthquake — measured at magnitude 7.5 (7.6 by the U.S. Geological Survey) — struck offshore of Aomori Prefecture in northern Japan around 11:15 p.m. JST. The quake was deep enough (about 44 km) to be felt over a wide area, with intense shaking registering across northern Honshu and parts of Hokkaido.
🌊 Immediate Impact — Tsunami & Injuries
Tsunami Warnings were promptly issued along the Pacific coasts of Hokkaido, Aomori and Iwate. Authorities initially feared waves up to ~3 meters high, prompting evacuations. In the end, only small tsunami waves — up to about 70 cm — were observed, and all warnings were lifted by early Tuesday morning. At least 50 plus people have been injured, mostly lightly, due to falling objects and minor structural impacts from the shaking.
Across the affected prefectures, emergency crews continue damage assessments and are checking roads, buildings, utilities and other infrastructure for safety concerns. Some power outages and transport disruptions (train suspensions) were reported in the aftermath.
🧠 Rare “Megaquake Advisory” Issued
Japan’s meteorological authority, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), has issued a megaquake advisory following the M 7.5 quake — a rare alert indicating elevated seismic risk. This advisory:
Does not predict when (or if) a larger earthquake will occur. Signals that the probability of a more powerful quake (M 8.0+) has increased temporarily for the next several days or week. Specifically, a formerly tiny ~0.1% weekly chance has risen to roughly ~1 %. Applies along a long stretch of Japan’s Pacific coast — from Chiba Prefecture in the south up through Hokkaido in the north — where the Pacific tectonic plate is actively subducting beneath Japan.
Officials emphasize that this is an advisory, not a prediction, and it’s issued to encourage preparedness: securing furniture, reviewing evacuation plans, and keeping emergency kits ready.
🌏 Aftershocks and Continued Seismic Activity
Even after the main quake, strong aftershocks have been recorded in the region — including quakes in the magnitude 5–6 range. This ongoing activity is consistent with a typical aftershock sequence but reinforces the public safety message to stay alert.
Later smaller tremors — including a reported M 6.0 event — have been felt near Aomori and Hokkaido, though none have triggered additional tsunami warnings.
🛡 Government Response & Public Safety
The Japanese government has mobilized an emergency task force to:
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Assess damage and coordinate response efforts across affected regions. Monitor infrastructure — including roads, utilities, and nuclear facilities — for any damage or safety issues. Keep the public informed and ready for possible aftershocks or other quakes.
Schools, businesses and local municipalities continue to evaluate safety conditions and may adjust operations accordingly.
📌 What This Means for Residents & Visitors
✔ Immediate tsunami danger has passed, but vigilance is still needed due to aftershocks.
✔ Preparedness is crucial, especially in coastal and northern regions that felt the quake strongest.
✔ If you’re in Japan or planning travel, follow JMA updates and local government advisories for current regional guidance.
🧭 In Summary
Japan is dealing with the impacts of a major offshore earthquake that shook the northern Pacific coast and prompted widespread alerts. Although immediate tsunami threats were limited and damage appears relatively light so far, a rare megaquake advisory remains in effect — not as a definitive forecast, but as a cautionary alert to stay prepared in the coming days.
Despite this elevated alert level, experts stress that while seismic risk is higher than normal, a massive quake is not imminent and the advisory’s purpose is to keep people ready rather than alarmed.
Links open in a new tab. Please follow official JMA updates for real-time alerts.
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
Hal Machina is a passionate writer, blogger, and self-proclaimed journalist who explores the intersection of science, tech, and futurism. Join him on a journey into innovative ideas and groundbreaking discoveries! View all postsjournalist
How China cleaned up its air pollution – and what that meant for the climate
How China cleaned up its air pollution: Beijing’s air quality went from hazardous to good while Delhi and Lahore still struggle. Discover how China dramatically reduced pollution since 2013—and why cleaner air may have unintended consequences for global warming and climate change.
Delhi: 442. Lahore: 334. Beijing: 16. These are the levels of PM 2.5, one of the principle measures for air pollution, on November 19. As Pakistanis and Indians struggle with hazardous air quality, in Beijing – a city once notorious for its smog – the air quality is currently rated as good. Ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the Chinese government was so concerned about pollution that it introduced temporary restrictions on cars, shut down factories and stopped work on some construction sites. The measures worked and one study later found that levels of air pollution were down 30% during the period when the temporary Olympic restrictions were in place. It would take a few more years before the Chinese government implemented a clean air action plan in 2013. Since then, China has achieved a dramatic improvement in its air quality. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we speak to Laura Wilcox, a professor at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading in the UK, to understand how China managed to clean up its air pollution. But Wilcox’s recent research uncovered some unintended consequences from this cleaner air for the global climate: the pollution was actually helping to cool the atmosphere and by taking it away, it may have accelerated global warming. Wilcox explains:
What we’re seeing is a removing of cooling that’s revealing warming that’s already there. So the air pollution isn’t the cause of the warming. It’s just letting us see stuff that we’ve already done.
Dive into “The Knowledge,” where curiosity meets clarity. This playlist, in collaboration with STMDailyNews.com, is designed for viewers who value historical accuracy and insightful learning. Our short videos, ranging from 30 seconds to a minute and a half, make complex subjects easy to grasp in no time. Covering everything from historical events to contemporary processes and entertainment, “The Knowledge” bridges the past with the present. In a world where information is abundant yet often misused, our series aims to guide you through the noise, preserving vital knowledge and truths that shape our lives today. Perfect for curious minds eager to discover the ‘why’ and ‘how’ of everything around us. Subscribe and join in as we explore the facts that matter. https://stmdailynews.com/the-knowledge/
Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
