An oracle erred badly. The most impressive results were turned in by a little-known company in Brazil. A nagging problem reemerged, and some media critics turned profane in their assessments.
So it went for pollsters in the 2024 presidential election. Their collective performance, while not stellar, was improved from that of four years earlier. Overall, polls signaled a close outcome in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
That is what the election produced: a modest win for Trump.
This time, CNN’s final national poll said the race was deadlocked – an outcome anticipated by six other pollsters, according to data compiled by RealClearPolitics.
The most striking discrepancy this year was the Marist College poll, conducted for NPR and PBS. It estimated Harris held a 4-point lead nationally at campaign’s end.
Comedian Jon Stewart gave harsh voice to such sentiments, saying of pollsters on his late-night program on election night, “I don’t ever want to fucking hear from you again. Ever. … You don’t know shit about shit, and I don’t care for you.”
Comedian Jon Stewart doesn’t like pollsters and had some blistering comments about them on election night. Screenshot, YouTube
Megyn Kelly, a former Fox News host, also denounced pollsters, declaring on her podcast the day after the election: “Polling is a lie. They don’t know anything.”
Two factors seemed to encourage such derision – a widely discussed survey of Iowa voters released the weekend before the election and Trump’s sweep of the seven states where the outcome turned.
The Iowa poll injected shock and surprise into the campaign’s endgame, reporting that Harris had taken a 3-point lead in the state over Trump. The result was likened to a “bombshell” and its implications seemed clear: If Harris had opened a lead in a state with Iowa’s partisan profile, her prospects of winning elsewhere seemed strong, especially in the Great Lakes swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The survey was conducted for the Des Moines Register by J. Ann Selzer, a veteran Iowa-based pollster with an outstanding reputation in opinion research. In a commentary in The New York Times in mid-September, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson declared Selzer “the oracle of Iowa.” Rachel Maddow of MSNBC praised Selzer’s polls before the election for their “uncanny predictive accuracy.” Ratings released in June by data guru Nate Silver gave Selzer’s polls an A-plus grade.
Selzer said afterward she will “be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that (discrepancy) happened.”
It is possible, other pollsters suggested, that Selzer’s reliance on telephone-based surveying contributed to the polling failure. “Phone polling alone … isn’t going to reach low-propensity voters or politically disengaged nonwhite men,” Tom Lubbock and James Johnson wrote in a commentary for The Wall Street Journal.
Trump’s sweep of the seven vigorously contested swing states surely contributed to perceptions that polls had misfired again.
According to RealClearPolitics, Harris held slender, end-of-campaign polling leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
Trump won them all, an outcome no pollster anticipated – except for AtlasIntel of Sao Paulo, Brazil, a firm “about which little is known,” as The New Republic noted.
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AtlasIntel estimated Trump was ahead in all seven swing states by margins that hewed closely to the voting outcomes. In none of the swing states did AtlasIntel’s polling deviate from the final vote tally by more than 1.3 points, an impressive performance.
AtlasIntel did not respond to email requests I sent requesting information about its background and polling technique. The company describes itself as “a leading innovator in online polling” and says it uses “a proprietary methodology,” without revealing much about it.
Its founder and chief executive is Andrei Roman, who earned a doctorate in government at Harvard University. Roman took to X, formerly Twitter, in the election’s aftermath to post a chart that touted AtlasIntel as “the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election.”
A significant question facing pollsters this year – their great known unknown – was whether modifications made to sampling techniques would allow them to avoid underestimating Trump’s support, as they had in 2016 and 2020.
Misjudging Trump’s backing is a nagging problem for pollsters. The results of the 2024 election indicate that the shortcoming persists. By margins ranging from 0.9 points to 2.7 points, polls overall understated Trump’s support in the seven swing states, for example.
Some polls misjudged Trump’s backing by even greater margins. CNN, for example, underestimated Trump’s vote by 4.3 points in North Carolina, by more than 6 points in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona.
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Results that misfire in the same direction suggest that adjustments to sampling methodologies were inadequate or ineffective for pollsters in seeking to reach Trump backers of all stripes.
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In early 2021, after a decade of political and economic reforms, Myanmar looked like it was finally beginning to shake off the hangover of decades of military rule. Foreign investment was growing, and standards of living were gradually improving.
In February that year, however, the military again grabbed power after ousting Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government in a coup. This sent the country spiralling towards civil war and social and economic collapse.
In the latest addition to the daily misery of Myanmar’s long-suffering people, a huge 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit the centre of the country on Friday. Its epicentre was just outside Mandalay, the county’s second-largest city.
The Thai capital of Bangkok, more than 1,000 kilometres from the epicentre, experienced extensive damage too. Video images showed a collapsing building under construction and sloshing rooftop infinity pools causing waterfalls down high-rise condominiums.
Information on the extent of the damage in Myanmar was slower to emerge, given the junta has largely banned social media and communications apps, such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Signal and X.
The death toll has now passed 1,000 at the time of writing. US Geological Survey modelling, however, suggests there could be more than 10,000 deaths and economic losses potentially exceeding the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
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Unusually for the isolationist military juntas of Myanmar, its leader, Min Aung Hlaing, immediately issued a call for international assistance.
The junta, however, has full control of as little as 21% of the country in the ongoing civil war, with the rest contested or controlled by ethnic armed groups and resistance fighters. This indicates some hard-hit areas of the country may be inaccessible to international aid.
Compounding these difficulties, the Trump administration has decimated the US Agency for International Development (USAID) activities in the country. This will make it far more challenging to determine the areas most in need and distribute any aid on the ground.
Natural disasters in Myanmar
Along with its history of brutal and authoritarian military rule since gaining independence in 1948, Myanmar is also regularly afflicted by natural disasters.
At least 430 people are believed to have died in floods last September due to the remnants of Typhoon Yagi. In 2023, Cyclone Mocha reportedly killed about 460 of the Rohingya ethnic minority, who are largely confined to government camps in Rakhine state in inhuman conditions.
The worst natural disaster in living memory, however, was Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which left at least 140,000 dead. On that occasion, the military junta resisted international assistance, likely resulting in many unnecessary deaths.
At that time, there was no independent media in Myanmar and it was almost impossible to find out what was actually happening on the ground.
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Fortunately, the proliferation of mobile phones in the last decade has allowed information to spread much more widely, even with the junta’s internet blocks and other methods of censorship currently in place.
When Cyclone Nargis occurred – the year after the iPhone was launched – only around 1% of the Myanmar’s population had mobile phones. By the time of the coup in 2021, Myanmar had a smartphone penetration rate of 114%. (This means the country has more smartphones than people.)
Foreign assistance has been compromised
While Min Aung Hlaing has gone farther than his predecessor in 2008 in asking for international help, US President Donald Trump’s actions have ensured that any aid will be far less effective than it would have been two months ago.
On Friday, the same day the earthquake hit, the Trump administration told Congress it would cut nearly all remaining jobs at USAID and shut the agency, closing all USAID missions worldwide.
Jeremy Konyndyk, the president of Refugees International and a former USAID official, called the move “a total abdication of decades of US leadership in the world”. He argued the firings would cut “the last remnants of the team that would have mobilised a USAID disaster response” to the earthquake.
In 2024, USAID spent US$240 million (A$380 million) in Myanmar, around one-third of all multilateral humanitarian assistance to the country.
However, since Trump’s inauguration in January, the number of USAID programs in Myanmar has shrunk from 18 to just three. Several NGOs and at least seven US-funded hospitals operating along Myanmar’s border with Thailand have been shut down.
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Myanmar’s exiled independent media outlets, which shine a light on the military’s atrocities, have also seen their funding slashed by the Trump administration’s USAID cuts.
What happens now?
The day before the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing addressed troops at the 80th anniversary of Armed Forces Day Parade. He announced national elections would go ahead in December – a vote that human rights groups are already calling a “sham”.
There is no conceivable way elections of any integrity can be held in the country under military rule or while the civil war continues to rage.
Military-backed parties have been overwhelmingly rejected by Myanmar’s electorate in every remotely free or fair election over the last four decades. This includes the most recent elections held in 2020, won by the National League of Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi.
While the world should welcome – and urgently respond to – Min Aung Hlaing’s invitation for international assistance, this doesn’t mean the past is forgotten. Thousands of innocent lives have been lost as a result of the military’s unnecessary and destructive 2021 coup.
If the NLD had remained in government, the country would be infinitely more prepared to deal with consequences of this earthquake. Once again, the military’s brutal rule – and Trump’s draconian aid cuts – will no doubt cause more unnecessary suffering and deaths.
Workers who are in frequent contact with potentially sick animals are at high risk of bird flu infection.
Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesRon Barrett, Macalester College
Disease forecasts are like weather forecasts: We cannot predict the finer details of a particular outbreak or a particular storm, but we can often identify when these threats are emerging and prepare accordingly.
The viruses that cause avian influenza are potential threats to global health. Recent animal outbreaks from a subtype called H5N1 have been especially troubling to scientists. Although human infections from H5N1 have been relatively rare, there have been a little more than 900 known cases globally since 2003 – nearly 50% of these cases have been fatal – a mortality rate about 20 times higher than that of the 1918 flu pandemic. If the worst of these rare infections ever became common among people, the results could be devastating.
Approaching potential disease threats from an anthropological perspective, my colleagues and I recently published a book called “Emerging Infections: Three Epidemiological Transitions from Prehistory to the Present” to examine the ways human behaviors have shaped the evolution of infectious diseases, beginning with their first major emergence in the Neolithic period and continuing for 10,000 years to the present day.
Viewed from this deep time perspective, it becomes evident that H5N1 is displaying a common pattern of stepwise invasion from animal to human populations. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 is making incremental evolutionary changes that could allow it to transmit between people. The periods between these evolutionary steps present opportunities to slow this process and possibly avert a global disaster.
Spillover and viral chatter
When a disease-causing pathogen such as a flu virus is already adapted to infect a particular animal species, it may eventually evolve the ability to infect a new species, such as humans, through a process called spillover.
Spillover is a tricky enterprise. To be successful, the pathogen must have the right set of molecular “keys” compatible with the host’s molecular “locks” so it can break in and out of host cells and hijack their replication machinery. Because these locks often vary between species, the pathogen may have to try many different keys before it can infect an entirely new host species. For instance, the keys a virus successfully uses to infect chickens and ducks may not work on cattle and humans. And because new keys can be made only through random mutation, the odds of obtaining all the right ones are very slim.
Given these evolutionary challenges, it is not surprising that pathogens often get stuck partway into the spillover process. A new variant of the pathogen might be transmissible from an animal only to a person who is either more susceptible due to preexisting illness or more likely to be infected because of extended exposure to the pathogen.
Even then, the pathogen might not be able to break out of its human host and transmit to another person. This is the current situation with H5N1. For the past year, there have been many animal outbreaks in a variety of wild and domestic animals, especially among birds and cattle. But there have also been a small number of human cases, most of which have occurred among poultry and dairy workers who worked closely with large numbers of infected animals.
Pathogen transmission can be modeled in three stages. In Stage 1, the pathogen can be transmitted only between nonhuman animals. In stage 2, the pathogen can also be transmitted to humans, but it is not yet adapted for human-to-human transmission. In Stage 3, the pathogen is fully capable of human-to-human transmission.Ron Barrett, CC BY-SA
Epidemiologists call this situation viral chatter: when human infections occur only in small, sporadic outbreaks that appear like the chattering signals of coded radio communications – tiny bursts of unclear information that may add up to a very ominous message. In the case of viral chatter, the message would be a human pandemic.
Sporadic, individual cases of H5N1 among people suggest that human-to-human transmission may likely occur at some point. But even so, no one knows how long or how many steps it would take for this to happen.
Influenza viruses evolve rapidly. This is partly because two or more flu varieties can infect the same host simultaneously, allowing them to reshuffle their genetic material with one another to produce entirely new varieties.
Genetic reshuffling – aka antigenic shift – between a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza and a strain of human influenza could create a new strain that’s even more infectious among people.Eunsun Yoo/Biomolecules & Therapeutics, CC BY-NC
These reshuffling events are more likely to occur when there is a diverse range of host species. So it is particularly concerning that H5N1 is known to have infected at least 450 different animal species. It may not be long before the viral chatter gives way to larger human epidemics.
Reshaping the trajectory
The good news is that people can take basic measures to slow down the evolution of H5N1 and potentially reduce the lethality of avian influenza should it ever become a common human infection. But governments and businesses will need to act.
People can start by taking better care of food animals. The total weight of the world’s poultry is greater than all wild bird species combined. So it is not surprising that the geography of most H5N1 outbreaks track more closely with large-scale housing and international transfers of live poultry than with the nesting and migration patterns of wild aquatic birds. Reducing these agricultural practices could help curb the evolution and spread of H5N1.
Large-scale commercial transport of domesticated animals is associated with the evolution and spread of new influenza varieties.ben/Flickr, CC BY-SA
People can also take better care of themselves. At the individual level, most people can vaccinate against the common, seasonal influenza viruses that circulate every year. At first glance this practice may not seem connected to the emergence of avian influenza. But in addition to preventing seasonal illness, vaccination against common human varieties of the virus will reduce the odds of it mixing with avian varieties and giving them the traits they need for human-to-human transmission.
At the population level, societies can work together to improve nutrition and sanitation in the world’s poorest populations. History has shown that better nutrition increases overall resistance to new infections, and better sanitation reduces how much and how often people are exposed to new pathogens. And in today’s interconnected world, the disease problems of any society will eventually spread to every society.
For more than 10,000 years, human behaviors have shaped the evolutionary trajectories of infectious diseases. Knowing this, people can reshape these trajectories for the better.Ron Barrett, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
PUNE, MAHARASHTRA, INDIA /EINPresswire.com/ — Healthcare Education Market Perspective
The Global Healthcare Education Market size was worth USD 103.64 billion in 2022 and is estimated to grow to USD 202.75 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.75% over the forecast period. The report analyzes the healthcare education market’s drivers, restraints/challenges, and their effect on the demands during the projection period. In addition, the report explores emerging opportunities in the healthcare education market.
Medical professionals watching webinar on online platform. People having virtual class flat vector illustration. Online education, medicine concept for banner, website design or landing web page
Healthcare Education Market Developments
• In 2023, HealthStream (US) purchased Electronic Education Documentation System, LLC (US). This acquisition will broaden Healthstream’s ecosystem by bringing a cutting-edge, cloud-based continuing education management system for healthcare organizations and delivering cutting-edge solutions in the form of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS).
• In 2022, To promote access for surgeons and benefit more patients across the US, GE Healthcare (US) and DePuy Synthes (US) worked together to make GE Healthcare’s OEC 3D Imaging System and DePuy Synthes’ extensive product line more widely available.
Increasing need for skilled healthcare workers to drive market growth
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The market for healthcare education is expanding significantly due to the increasing need for skilled healthcare workers. The market for healthcare education is being significantly shaped by the growing demand for qualified healthcare workers. The demand for skilled physicians, nurses, allied health workers, and administrators who can deliver high-quality healthcare services is rising as the world’s population continues to expand and get older. The rising incidence of chronic illnesses and complicated medical disorders that need specialized care has increased this demand. Additionally, the need for healthcare professionals is growing outside conventional clinical responsibilities. The demand for non-clinical positions such as healthcare administrators, informatics experts, and others is also growing. As a result, healthcare education incorporates a variety of academic fields to produce a workforce that is well-rounded and able to meet the many demands of the healthcare sector.
Healthcare Education Market: Regional Landscape
Asia Pacific dominated the Healthcare Education market in 2022
There is a sizable and constantly expanding population in the Asia Pacific region, which generates a sizable demand for healthcare services. The demand for qualified and trained healthcare personnel grows proportionally as healthcare systems enlarge to meet this demand. Additionally, greater investments in healthcare infrastructure, including educational institutions, have been made as a result of the Asia Pacific region’s economic expansion. Governments and commercial organizations are becoming more aware of how crucial a strong healthcare education system is to the development of healthcare services.
Healthcare Education Market Top Players: Stryker (US), SAP (Germany), Adobe (US), Infor (US), Oracle (US), HealthStream (US), Symplr (US), Elsevier (Netherlands), Articulate (US), PeopleFluent (US), Fujifilm Corporation (Japan), GE Healthcare (US), Trivantis Corporation (US), Koninklijke Phillips (Netherlands), Siemens Healthineers (Germany), Coursera (US), and IBM (US).
Healthcare Education Market: Segmentation
The global healthcare education market has been segmented into provider, delivery mode, application, and end-user.
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Based on universities, educational platforms, and medical simulation are segments of the global healthcare education market. The university segment to improve the business and department workers, the requirement for continuous learning in a field that is rapidly evolving, partnerships with healthcare organizations, and the emphasis on patient-centered care and interprofessional collaboration are all factors driving the growth of universities and academic institutions in the market for healthcare education solutions. The aforementioned elements help healthcare education programs grow and evolve to satisfy industry demands.
Based on delivery mode, the market is classified into classroom-based, and e-learning. In 2022, the e-learning processing category dominated the global market. Due to a variety of online learning platforms, students have access to educational resources like lectures, videos, quizzes, and other resources in a digital setting. Students can learn at their own pace and convenience in e-learning environments, which usually offer flexibility. Coursera, Blackboard, and Moodle are a few popular e-learning platforms. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, e-learning platforms have proliferated as a medium of delivery, and this trend is anticipated to continue during the projected period. The overall revenue for Coursera in 2022 was US$523.8 million, a 26% increase over 2021, while the gross profit was US$249.5 million, a 33% increase over 2021.
Based on application, the market is classified into neurology, cardiology, and pediatrics. In 2022, the cardiology category dominated the global market. It is anticipated that factors including the increased prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), technological improvements, and online courses will raise demand for educational solutions. According to the WHO’s 2021 update, CVDs encompass illnesses like coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, rheumatic heart disease, and others.
Based on end-users, the market is classified into students and physicians. In 2022, the student category dominated the global market. Student prospects have increased as a result of the growing accessibility and availability of healthcare education alternatives, notably online and remote learning options. Students can learn at their own pace, from any location, at any time, and with the help of digital tools and online platforms. This accessibility makes it easier for people from different backgrounds to enter the healthcare industry by allowing students to pursue healthcare education while juggling other responsibilities.
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Ron Barrett, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
