STM Daily News
Better but not stellar: Pollsters faced familiar complaints, difficulties in assessing Trump-Harris race
W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication
An oracle erred badly. The most impressive results were turned in by a little-known company in Brazil. A nagging problem reemerged, and some media critics turned profane in their assessments.
So it went for pollsters in the 2024 presidential election. Their collective performance, while not stellar, was improved from that of four years earlier. Overall, polls signaled a close outcome in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
That is what the election produced: a modest win for Trump.
With votes still being counted in California and a few other states more than a week after Election Day, Trump had received 50.1% of the popular vote to Harris’ 48.1%, a difference of 2 points. That margin was closer than Joe Biden’s win by 4.5 points over Trump in 2020. It was closer than Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory in 2016, closer than Barack Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012.
There were, moreover, no errors among national pollsters quite as dramatic as CNN’s estimate in 2020 that Biden led Trump by 12 points.
This time, CNN’s final national poll said the race was deadlocked – an outcome anticipated by six other pollsters, according to data compiled by RealClearPolitics.
The most striking discrepancy this year was the Marist College poll, conducted for NPR and PBS. It estimated Harris held a 4-point lead nationally at campaign’s end.
‘Oracle’ of Iowa’s big miss
In any event, a sense lingered among critics that the Trump-Harris election had resulted in yet another polling embarrassment, another entry in the catalog of survey failures in presidential elections, which is the topic of my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup.”
Comedian Jon Stewart gave harsh voice to such sentiments, saying of pollsters on his late-night program on election night, “I don’t ever want to fucking hear from you again. Ever. … You don’t know shit about shit, and I don’t care for you.”
Megyn Kelly, a former Fox News host, also denounced pollsters, declaring on her podcast the day after the election: “Polling is a lie. They don’t know anything.”
Two factors seemed to encourage such derision – a widely discussed survey of Iowa voters released the weekend before the election and Trump’s sweep of the seven states where the outcome turned.
The Iowa poll injected shock and surprise into the campaign’s endgame, reporting that Harris had taken a 3-point lead in the state over Trump. The result was likened to a “bombshell” and its implications seemed clear: If Harris had opened a lead in a state with Iowa’s partisan profile, her prospects of winning elsewhere seemed strong, especially in the Great Lakes swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The survey was conducted for the Des Moines Register by J. Ann Selzer, a veteran Iowa-based pollster with an outstanding reputation in opinion research. In a commentary in The New York Times in mid-September, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson declared Selzer “the oracle of Iowa.” Rachel Maddow of MSNBC praised Selzer’s polls before the election for their “uncanny predictive accuracy.” Ratings released in June by data guru Nate Silver gave Selzer’s polls an A-plus grade.
But this time, Selzer’s poll missed dramatically.
Trump carried Iowa by 13 points, meaning the poll was off by 16 points – a stunning divergence for an accomplished pollster.
“Even the mighty have been humbled” by Trump’s victory, the Times of London said of Selzer’s polling failure.
Selzer said afterward she will “be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that (discrepancy) happened.”
It is possible, other pollsters suggested, that Selzer’s reliance on telephone-based surveying contributed to the polling failure. “Phone polling alone … isn’t going to reach low-propensity voters or politically disengaged nonwhite men,” Tom Lubbock and James Johnson wrote in a commentary for The Wall Street Journal.
These days, few pollsters rely exclusively on the phone to conduct election surveys; many of them have opted for hybrid approaches that combine, for example, phone, text and online sampling techniques.
Surprise sweep of swing states
Trump’s sweep of the seven vigorously contested swing states surely contributed to perceptions that polls had misfired again.
According to RealClearPolitics, Harris held slender, end-of-campaign polling leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
Trump won them all, an outcome no pollster anticipated – except for AtlasIntel of Sao Paulo, Brazil, a firm “about which little is known,” as The New Republic noted.
AtlasIntel estimated Trump was ahead in all seven swing states by margins that hewed closely to the voting outcomes. In none of the swing states did AtlasIntel’s polling deviate from the final vote tally by more than 1.3 points, an impressive performance.
AtlasIntel did not respond to email requests I sent requesting information about its background and polling technique. The company describes itself as “a leading innovator in online polling” and says it uses “a proprietary methodology,” without revealing much about it.
Its founder and chief executive is Andrei Roman, who earned a doctorate in government at Harvard University. Roman took to X, formerly Twitter, in the election’s aftermath to post a chart that touted AtlasIntel as “the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election.”
It was a burst of pollster braggadocio reminiscent of a kind that has emerged periodically since the 1940s. That was when polling pioneer George Gallup placed two-page advertising spreads in the journalism trade publication “Editor & Publisher” to assert the accuracy of his polls in presidential elections.
Underestimating Trump’s support again
A significant question facing pollsters this year – their great known unknown – was whether modifications made to sampling techniques would allow them to avoid underestimating Trump’s support, as they had in 2016 and 2020.
Misjudging Trump’s backing is a nagging problem for pollsters. The results of the 2024 election indicate that the shortcoming persists. By margins ranging from 0.9 points to 2.7 points, polls overall understated Trump’s support in the seven swing states, for example.
Some polls misjudged Trump’s backing by even greater margins. CNN, for example, underestimated Trump’s vote by 4.3 points in North Carolina, by more than 6 points in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona.
Results that misfire in the same direction suggest that adjustments to sampling methodologies were inadequate or ineffective for pollsters in seeking to reach Trump backers of all stripes.
W. Joseph Campbell, Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
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Diana Gregory Receives Lifetime Achievement Award from AmeriCorps on Behalf of President Biden
Honoring Diana Gregory
In a moment that truly embodies the essence of service and community care, Diana Gregory, the visionary founder of Diana Gregory Outreach Services, has been honored with the esteemed Lifetime Achievement Award from AmeriCorps. This award, presented on behalf of President Joe Biden, took place during a heartfelt ceremony at the VA Health Care System in Phoenix, Arizona, organized by the dedicated leadership of The Order of St. George.
Diana’s selection for this distinguished accolade highlights her extraordinary commitment to fostering positive change and improving the lives of those in her community. Over the past decade, she has passionately addressed critical issues like food insecurity and health awareness, focusing on supporting seniors and veterans. Through her organization, Diana Gregory Outreach Services, she has distributed fresh, nutritious produce to thousands, ensuring that those in need have access to healthy food options.
But Diana’s contributions extend far beyond food distribution; she has also implemented vital health education programs that empower individuals and families, helping them to embrace wellness and make informed choices about their health. This holistic approach has created a transformative impact on underserved communities, reinforcing the importance of access to both nutrition and education.
The Lifetime Achievement Award is an honorable recognition reserved for individuals who have dedicated over 4,000 hours of volunteer service. This milestone is a testament to Diana’s proactive engagement and relentless advocacy for those she serves. Her award serves not only as recognition of her achievements but also as an inspiration for others to follow in her footsteps and contribute to their communities.
The Order of St. George, a respected non-profit organization dedicated to providing humanitarian assistance to refugees, veterans, and the Boy Scouts of America, proudly presented the award. Their involvement signifies the collaborative spirit of various organizations working together to uplift and empower individuals in need, underscoring how interconnected our communities truly are.
As we celebrate Diana Gregory’s well-deserved honor, we recognize the countless lives she has touched and the paths she has paved for a brighter, healthier future. Her remarkable efforts highlight the immense power of community service and the difference every individual can make when they dedicate their time and passion to helping others.
To learn more about Diana Gregory Outreach Services and how you can get involved in her inspiring mission, please visit dianagregory.com. Together, let’s continue the legacy of compassion and service that Diana has so beautifully embodied.
Congratulations, Diana Gregory, on this remarkable achievement! Your dedication is a shining example of what it means to be a true leader and advocate for community well-being. Your work inspires us all to be better, do better, and serve better.
To learn more about Diana Gregory, visit https://dianagregory.com/
Related Link (Origina Press Release):
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/177DijAbdG
The Bridge is a section of the STM Daily News Blog meant for diversity, offering real news stories about bona fide community efforts to perpetuate a greater good. The purpose of The Bridge is to connect the divides that separate us, fostering understanding and empathy among different groups. By highlighting positive initiatives and inspirational actions, The Bridge aims to create a sense of unity and shared purpose. This section brings to light stories of individuals and organizations working tirelessly to promote inclusivity, equality, and mutual respect. Through these narratives, readers are encouraged to appreciate the richness of diverse perspectives and to participate actively in building stronger, more cohesive communities.
https://stmdailynews.com/the-bridge
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unknown
Mysterious Lights Over Oregon: Pilots Report Unusual Aerial Phenomena
This past weekend, the skies of Oregon became the backdrop for an extraordinary event that has both puzzled and dazzled observers. At least four commercial pilots reported encountering unexplained bright lights displaying incredible speeds and erratic movements, renewing interest and debate about aerial phenomena.
The Encounter Details
The first report came from a pilot operating an air ambulance who described a startling experience. A bright, red light zoomed towards his Life Flight plane, only to reverse direction and head back towards the Pacific Ocean at bewildering speeds. The event left the pilot and his crew astounded by the light’s velocity and abrupt maneuvers.
Meanwhile, the pilot of a United Airlines flight over Eugene also reported seeing multiple mysterious objects. These unidentified lights moved vertically and horizontally in patterns that defied easy explanation, with no evidence of military activity in the area at the time.
Adding to the intrigue, the Life Flight pilot noted that one of the lights engaged in a corkscrew pattern, an observation that was corroborated by the aircraft’s collision avoidance system. Air traffic control, maintaining a cautious approach, authorized the pilot to maneuver as necessary to maintain safety.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYVWd4ew
Visual Evidence and Continued Sightings
Throughout these encounters, several pilots managed to capture brief video clips. These clips, although hard to discern due to the dark conditions, show glimpses of the unusual red, circular lights. Another report from two Horizon Airlines pilots further confirmed that whatever was out there wasn’t isolated to a single incident or observer.
Experts Weigh In: Possible Explanations
In the wake of these mystifying sightings, experts have been quick to offer explanations. Douglas Buettner, a scientist who has researched similar incidents, suggests that these lights could likely be flares from Starlink satellites. Starlink, a constellation designed by SpaceX to provide global broadband coverage, has been known to produce vivid optical flares when its panels reflect sunlight.
Buettner’s research, which includes previous pilot reports and observations, supports the idea that this natural reflection of sunlight could explain the phenomena observed. However, he also admits the current data is insufficient to conclusively rule out other possibilities.
Government and Public Response
Following these reports, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) confirmed the sighting of unidentified lights by a pilot, although they have not commented further. In a recent Senate hearing, the Pentagon’s director overseeing unidentified anomalous phenomena indicated a spike in such reports since the launch of satellite constellations like Starlink, underscoring the growing interest and concern regarding these observations.
The Broader Implications
While the most likely explanation for these mysterious lights points to satellite flares, the repeated occurrences of such phenomena continue to stir the public’s imagination and scientific curiosity. As we advance in our technological capabilities, the skies above us grow increasingly populated with human-made objects that can sometimes return to us as bewildering spectacles.
In either case, these events serve as a reminder of the vast and unexplored frontiers above us and the ever-present human quest for understanding the mysteries of our universe. Whether they turn out to be mundane or truly otherworldly, the skies over Oregon this weekend have given us all something to ponder and marvel at.
Related Link:
https://nbc16.com/news/local/life-flight-pilot-reports-seeing-ufo-near-eugene
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
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New Jersey Drone Sightings: Unraveling the Mystery
In recent weeks, New Jersey has increasingly found itself under the watchful eye of mysterious drones. These sightings have captivated residents and officials alike, leading to widespread speculation and calls for action. Below is a comprehensive update on the current situation regarding drone sightings in the Garden State, including insights from government officials and community reactions.
The Surge of Sightings
Reports of large drones—up to six feet in diameter—flying over various regions of New Jersey have surged since mid-November. Assemblywoman Dawn Fantasia highlighted the unusual characteristics of these drones, often flying with their lights off and evading detection by traditional methods. Though the origin and purpose of these drones remain unclear, many are convinced that they are not the product of hobbyists.
Notably, many sightings have been concentrated near sensitive locations such as the Picatinny Arsenal, a U.S. military research facility, and Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. Concerns have only intensified since these drones seem to be operating outside the realm of normal commercial or recreational use.
Government Investigations and Assurances
Federal and state law enforcement agencies, including the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), have become actively involved in investigating these sightings. Despite receiving over 5,000 tips, officials state that there is currently no evidence suggesting that these drones pose a threat to national security or public safety. Instead, authorities believe that many of the reported sightings can be attributed to legal drones and other aerial phenomena, including misidentified manned aircraft and even celestial bodies like stars.
Governor Phil Murphy has reinforced this perspective, emphasizing that while drone sightings have raised valid concerns, there’s no immediate threat to public safety. The governor has called for federal assistance in the investigation and urged Congress to empower states with more authority to manage drone activities.
Congressional Response and Public Sentiment
The situation has sparked a debate among lawmakers, with some calling for stricter regulations or even a temporary ban on drone flights in New Jersey. Notably, two congressional representatives have gone so far as to request that the military intervene, highlighting the urgency felt by some constituents. U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew even suggested that a foreign entity could be behind the sightings, a theory that has been categorically denied by federal officials.
Public sentiment varies significantly, with many residents expressing concerns about the unknown nature of these drones. James Edwards from Succasunna has pointed out the anxiety gripping the community, noting, “There’s so much that’s unknown,” and calling for a measured response to the sightings.
The View from Washington
At the national level, President Joe Biden has responded to the growing unease, asserting that there is nothing nefarious behind the drone sightings. He emphasized the lawful presence of over one million registered drones operating across the country and assured the public that the situation is being closely monitored.
John Kirby, the White House National Security Advisor, reiterated that the majority of drone sightings do not indicate a coordinated threat and stem from common commercial, hobbyist, or law enforcement operations.
What Lies Ahead?
As investigations continue, officials stress the importance of discerning legitimate threats from unwarranted fears. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing dialogues both in Trenton and Washington to address public concerns and craft appropriate regulatory responses.
While the mystery of the New Jersey drones deepens, it’s vital for residents to remain calm and informed. As the investigation unravels the truths behind these sightings, a collective effort from the community, lawmakers, and federal agencies can help ensure safety and transparency in the skies above New Jersey.
Stay tuned for updates as this story continues to evolve, and be sure to report any new sightings or information to the appropriate authorities. Together, we can navigate the complexities of drone activity in our airspace while embracing this new technological frontier.
Related Link:
https://apnews.com/article/drones-new-jersey-what-to-know-e6f565f5d51d9d47ad140e7e7d131842
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
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