Economy
Even professional economists can’t escape political bias
Political Bias: A study led by economist Aeimit Lakdawala reveals that Republican-leaning economists tend to predict higher GDP growth during Republican presidencies, resulting in less accurate forecasts. This partisan bias, stemming from differing views on tax policy, highlights how even trained professionals can be influenced by ideology, particularly in uncertain economic data.
Aeimit Lakdawala, Wake Forest University
Even professional economists can’t escape political bias
Republican-leaning economists tend to predict stronger economic growth when a Republican is president than Democrats do – and because of this partisan optimism, their forecasts end up being less accurate.
I’m an economist, and my colleagues and I found this by analyzing nearly 40 years of responses to The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey. Unlike most such surveys, the Journal publishes each forecaster’s name, allowing us to link their predictions to their political affiliations.
The respondents were professional economists at major banks, consulting firms and universities whose forecasts help guide financial markets and business decisions. Out of more than 300 economists in our sample, we could identify the political affiliations of 122. We did this by looking at the forecasters’ political donation records, voter registration data and work histories with partisan groups.
The pattern was striking: Republican forecasters systematically predicted higher gross domestic product growth when their party controlled the presidency, representing roughly 10% to 15% of average growth rates during our study period.
When we examined forecast accuracy using real-time GDP data, Republican forecasters made larger errors when their preferred party held office. This suggests partisan optimism makes their professional judgment worse.
What makes this finding particularly notable is its asymmetry. The partisan gap emerged specifically during Republican presidencies. Under Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Republican and Democratic forecasters made virtually identical predictions. That wasn’t the case when George W. Bush, and later Donald Trump, occupied the White House.
Interestingly, this bias appears only in GDP forecasts. When we analyzed predictions for inflation, unemployment and interest rates, we found no systematic differences between Republican and Democratic forecasters.
That makes sense, because GDP forecasts are inherently more uncertain than other economic predictions. Professional forecasters tend to disagree more and make more mistakes when predicting GDP compared to inflation or unemployment rates. This creates opportunities for partisan ideologies to sneak in.
We traced the bias to different views about the effectiveness of tax policies. Using Google Trends data to measure when tax cuts were in the news, we found Republican forecasters become systematically more optimistic precisely when tax policy discussions heat up.
Why it matters
Previous research has found that most people have a strong partisan bias when they make economic predictions. Our work is the first to show that professional economists can also succumb to such influences – despite their training and market incentives to be accurate.
Their errors can come at a high price. Financial markets, policymakers and businesses rely on economists’ forecasts to make major decisions. When the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, when companies plan investments and when investors allocate portfolios, they often reference these professional consensus forecasts.
Our research challenges a common assumption in economics: that aggregating diverse expert forecasts eliminates individual biases and improves accuracy.
This doesn’t mean professional forecasters are incompetent or dishonest. These are highly trained economists with strong financial incentives for accuracy. Rather, our findings reveal how even experts with the best intentions can be unconsciously influenced by their own ideological beliefs – especially when dealing with inherently uncertain data.
What still isn’t known
Several important questions remain unanswered. It’s unclear how this bias might be reduced. Would making forecasters more aware of their political leanings help reduce the effect? Or would developing new forecasting methods that weight predictions based on historical accuracy during different political regimes improve consensus forecasts?
We’re also curious whether institutional factors matter. Might forecasters at institutions with explicit political diversity policies show less bias? How do international forecasters viewing the U.S. economy compare to domestic ones?
Finally, our research focuses on U.S. forecasters during a period of increasing political polarization. Whether similar patterns emerge in other countries with different political systems, or during less polarized times, remains an open question.
The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.
Aeimit Lakdawala, Associate Professor of Economics, Wake Forest University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Automotive
Gas prices have a $5 tipping point: New research shows when Americans start looking at EVs
Gas prices have a $5 tipping point: New research shows when Americans start looking at EVs
(Tiffany Miller for Hyundai) There is a moment at the gas pump when the number staring back at you stops feeling routine.
You expect the total to land somewhere familiar. And then, one day, it doesn’t. Not dramatically higher. Just high enough to feel different. Enough to make you pause before tapping your card.
According to new research from Hyundai Motor America, that moment is not hypothetical. For more than a third of American drivers, it has already happened. And for many, once it does, something shifts that does not quite shift back.
For 42% of Americans, pulling up to a pump now brings frustration or outright dread. Most have made peace with the routine, even if 39% describe their gas spend as “frustrating but expected.”
The experience at the pump hasn’t changed. The emotional weight of it has.
Most drivers have a number in their head where the math shifts. For 23% of those surveyed, $5 per gallon is where they would seriously start considering alternatives to a gas-powered vehicle. Not everyone will be moved by price, and 29% say they would not consider alternatives based on gas costs at all. But for a meaningful share of Americans, the tipping point is specific. It is a number on a sign, and many have seen it before.
More than one-third of Americans surveyed say a recent fill-up has already prompted them to research electric vehicles, and 23% say it has happened more than once.
What comes next is rarely dramatic. Some compare models or brands. Some search online. Some find themselves on an automaker’s website, further along than they expected to be. Most do not act on this impulse right away. But for a growing number, the pump is where the question starts.
The shift is real but uneven. If gas prices rose significantly and stayed high, 46% of those surveyed say they would be likely to seriously research an EV. Yet most Americans are still somewhere between curious and committed.
The pitch for electric vehicles is simple. Never stop for gas again. Nearly half of Americans say they would absolutely take that deal.
The transition is not frictionless. Charging access and range anxiety remain the top concern for 28% of potential buyers, and simple comfort with the status quo runs just as deep.
The desire to leave the pump behind is real. So is everything standing in the way.
The move toward electric vehicles is often framed as a long-term decision made with spreadsheets and incentive calculators, but for many Americans, it begins somewhere smaller. A routine fuel stop. A number that lands differently. A moment of hesitation before the receipt prints.
Methodology
Hyundai Motor America commissioned Atomik Research to conduct an online survey of 1,000 adults throughout the United States. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted between April 3 and April 6, 2026.
Atomik Research, part of 4media group, is a creative market research agency.
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock (woman at gas pump)
SOURCE:
Hyundai
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News
Money Management: The Importance of Financial Literacy
You may have mastered the core subjects like math and grammar in school, but financial literacy – or understanding the basics of money management in order to help you make better financial decisions – often goes overlooked before adulthood. It’s not so much a course of study as it is a plan of action. When you understand how to earn, save, spend and invest wisely, you aren’t just building a stable future for yourself, but your family and community as well.
Last Updated on May 11, 2026 by Daily News Staff
(Feature Impact) You may have mastered the core subjects like math and grammar in school, but financial literacy – or understanding the basics of money management in order to help you make better financial decisions – often goes overlooked before adulthood. It’s not so much a course of study as it is a plan of action.
Financial literacy in the United States has remained stagnant at generally low levels for several years, according to research from TIAA Institute and the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center, with even lower levels among Gen Z. Yet greater financial literacy – including key aspects such as goal-setting, budgeting, saving, credit management and investing – is strongly linked to better financial outcomes, including lower rates of debt constraint and financial fragility.
While emboldening yourself to understand financial terms can be a little overwhelming at first, once you have a grasp of basic concepts you can begin to get a handle on your money and make better financial decisions. Simply put: When you understand how to earn, save, spend and invest wisely, you aren’t just building a stable future for yourself, but your family and community as well.
From nonprofit partnerships to volunteer-led programs and fee online resources, Schwab and its employees help millions of people every year build the knowledge and confidence to take charge of their financial futures by serving as board members, mentors, role models and educators.
Because financial health is a lifelong journey, the earlier people learn vital money skills, the better. That’s why the financial advisory services provider develops education programs geared toward kids that continue into adulthood, helping people no matter where they are on their journeys.
Talk Money
It’s never too early to start a conversation about financial literacy. Having teens identify goals that are important to them – such as concert tickets or a first car – can kickstart coversations about money. Working with your child (and a financial advisor, if necessary) on a plan for saving to realize those goals can serve as a jumping off point. After achieving some success, their enthusiasm may grow, which is a powerful motivator to keep saving.
Support School Initiatives and Programs
Outreach programs that empower young people to make smart financial decisions is key to a bright future. Programs like Money Matters – Schwab’s flagship financial education program utilized by the Boys & Girls Clubs of America – gives young people hands-on experience with all aspects of money and investing.
This example, and others, don’t just include program funding – they build partnerships that create impact and opportunity with national collaborations that reach more than 17 million youth annually, empowering young people with the tools and confidence to make smart financial decisions for life.
Spread the Financial Love
Championing financial literacy empowers everyone – individuals, families and communities. By serving as a board member, mentor, role model or educator to help bring financial literacy to others in your community, you can supply the tools and knowledge to lead programs that focus on giving back, empowering future generations in countless ways.
To learn more about financial literacy and find resources to empower your local community, visit SchwabMoneywise.com.
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock
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Our Lifestyle section on STM Daily News is a hub of inspiration and practical information, offering a range of articles that touch on various aspects of daily life. From tips on family finances to guides for maintaining health and wellness, we strive to empower our readers with knowledge and resources to enhance their lifestyles. Whether you’re seeking outdoor activity ideas, fashion trends, or travel recommendations, our lifestyle section has got you covered. Visit us today at https://stmdailynews.com/category/lifestyle/ and embark on a journey of discovery and self-improvement.
Last Updated on May 9, 2026 by Daily News Staff
National Small Business Month
Every May, communities across the United States recognize Small Business Month, a time dedicated to celebrating the entrepreneurs, family-owned companies, startups, and local shops that help drive the American economy. From neighborhood restaurants to innovative tech startups, small businesses continue to play a vital role in creating jobs, supporting communities, and inspiring innovation.
According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, small businesses account for millions of jobs nationwide and represent the backbone of local economies. Throughout May, organizations, chambers of commerce, and business leaders host networking events, educational workshops, and promotional campaigns to support entrepreneurs and encourage consumers to shop locally.
One of the highlights of the month is National Small Business Week, which honors outstanding entrepreneurs and business owners making a difference in their communities.
For consumers, Small Business Month is also a reminder that supporting local businesses helps strengthen neighborhoods and keeps communities thriving. Whether it’s dining at a local café, shopping at an independent store, or hiring a local service provider, every purchase can make an impact.
Learn more about Small Business Month and related events through the official U.S. Small Business Administrationwebsite.
Related External Links
- U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA)
- National Small Business Week – SBA
- SCORE – Mentoring and Resources for Small Businesses
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce – Small Business Resources
- Forbes Small Business News and Insights
Our Lifestyle section on STM Daily News is a hub of inspiration and practical information, offering a range of articles that touch on various aspects of daily life. From tips on family finances to guides for maintaining health and wellness, we strive to empower our readers with knowledge and resources to enhance their lifestyles. Whether you’re seeking outdoor activity ideas, fashion trends, or travel recommendations, our lifestyle section has got you covered. Visit us today at https://stmdailynews.com/category/lifestyle/ and embark on a journey of discovery and self-improvement.
