Think of the preseason hurricane forecast as the 30,000-foot view: It can’t predict if or when a storm will hit a particular location, but it can offer insight into how many storms are likely to form throughout the entire Atlantic, and how active the season overall might be. These outlooks rely heavily on two large-scale climate factors. The first is the sea surface temperature in areas where tropical cyclones tend to form and grow. Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. So when the Atlantic is unusually warm, as it has been in recent years, it provides more fuel for storms to form and intensify.Once water temperatures are 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius), hurricanes can form. Most of the Gulf was above that by late May 2025.NOAA/NESDIS The second key ingredient that meteorologists have their eye on is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which forecasters refer to as ENSO. ENSO is a climate cycle that shifts every few years between three main phases: El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral space that lives somewhere in between. During El Niño, winds over the Atlantic high up in the troposphere – roughly 25,000 to 40,000 feet – strengthen and can disrupt storms and hurricanes. La Niña, on the other hand, tends to reduce these winds, making it easier for storms to form and grow. When you look over the historical hurricane record, La Niña years have tended to be busier than their El Niño counterparts, as we saw from 2020 through 2023. We’re in the neutral phase as the 2025 hurricane season begins, and probably will be for at least a few more months. That means upper-level winds aren’t particularly hostile to hurricanes, but they’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet either. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are running warmer than the 30-year average, but not quite at the record-breaking levels seen in some recent seasons. Taken together, these conditions point to a moderately above-average hurricane season. It’s important to emphasize that these factors merely load the dice, tilting the odds toward more or fewer storms, but not guaranteeing an outcome. A host of other variables influence whether a storm actually forms, how strong it becomes, and whether it ever threatens land.
The smaller influences forecasters can’t see yet
Once hurricane season is underway, forecasters start paying close attention to shorter-term influences. These subseasonal factors evolve quickly enough that they don’t shape the entire season. However, they can noticeably raise or lower the chances for storms developing in the coming two to four weeks. One factor is dust lofted from the Sahara Desert by strong winds and carried from east to west across the Atlantic. These dust plumes tend to suppress hurricanes by drying out the atmosphere and reducing sunlight that reaches the ocean surface. Dust outbreaks are next-to-impossible to predict months in advance, but satellite observations of growing plumes can give forecasters a heads-up a couple weeks before the dust reaches the primary hurricane development region off the coast of Africa.Dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert can tamp down hurricane activities by shading the ocean over the main development region for hurricanes and drying out the atmosphere, just off the African coast. This plume spread over 2,000 miles in June 2020.NASA Another key ingredient that doesn’t go into seasonal forecasts but becomes important during the season are African easterly waves. These “waves” are clusters of thunderstorms that roll off the West African coast, tracking from east to west across the ocean. Most major storms in the Atlantic basin, especially in the peak months of August and September, can trace their origins back to one of these waves. Forecasters monitor strong waves as they begin their westward journey across the Atlantic, knowing they can provide some insight about potential risks to U.S. interests one to two weeks in advance. Also in this subseasonal mix is the Madden–Julian Oscillation. The MJO is a wave-like pulse of atmospheric activity that moves slowly around the tropics every 30 to 60 days. When the MJO is active over the Atlantic, it enhances the formation of thunderstorms associated with hurricanes. In its suppressed phase, storm activity tends to die down. The MJO doesn’t guarantee storms – or a lack of them – but it turns up or down the odds. Its phase and position can be tracked two or three weeks in advance. Lastly, forecasters will talk about the Loop Current, a deep river of warm water that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. When storms pass over the Loop Current or its warm eddies, they can rapidly intensify because they are drawing energy from not just the warm surface water but from warm water that’s tens of meters deep. The Loop Current has helped power several historic Gulf storms, including Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Ida in 2021.The Loop Current stretched well into the Gulf in May 2022. The scale, in meters, shows the maximum depth at which temperatures were 78 F (26 C) or greater.Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY-ND But the Loop Current is always shifting. Its strength and location in early summer may look very different by late August or September. Combined, these subseasonal signals help forecasters fine-tune their outlooks as the season unfolds.
Where hurricanes form shifts over the months
Where storms are most likely to form and make landfall also changes as the pages of the calendar turn. In early summer, the Gulf of Mexico warms up faster than the open Atlantic, making it a notable hotspot for early-season tropical storm development, especially in June and July. The Texas coast, Louisiana, and the Florida Panhandle often face a higher early-season risk than locations along the Eastern seaboard.These are generally the busiest areas during each month of hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t make landfall elsewhere.NOAA By August and September, the season reaches its peak. This is when those waves moving off the coast of Africa become a primary source of storm activity. These long-track storms are sometimes called “Cape Verde hurricanes” because they originate near the Cape Verde Islands off the African coast. While many stay over open water, others can gather steam and track toward the Caribbean, Florida or the Carolinas. Later in the hurricane season, storms are more likely to form in the western Atlantic or Caribbean, where waters are still warm and upper-level winds remain favorable. These late-season systems have a higher probability of following atypical paths, as Sandy did in 2012 when it struck the New York City region and Milton did in 2024 before making landfall in Florida. At the end of the day, the safest way to think about hurricane season is this: If you live along the coast, don’t let your guard down. Areas susceptible to hurricanes are never totally immune from hurricanes, and it only takes one to make it a dangerous – and unforgettable – season. Colin Zarzycki, Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climate Dynamics, Penn State This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Gregory Outreach Services Expands Food Access with Addition of Third Refrigerated Van
Gregory Outreach Services expands its mission to fight food insecurity with the addition of a third refrigerated van, doubling food access for low-income seniors and veterans in Phoenix.
Gregory Outreach Services’ newest refrigerated delivery van expands food access for low-income seniors and veterans across Phoenix.
Phoenix, AZ — Gregory Outreach Services has taken a major step forward in its mission to fight food insecurity with the addition of a third refrigerated delivery van, significantly expanding its capacity to serve low-income seniors and veterans across the Phoenix area.
The new refrigerated van was made possible through the support of a generous anonymous donor. The expansion is further strengthened by the continued generosity of the BHHS Legacy Foundation, who donated fresh produce to support the organization’s growing distribution efforts.
As rising food costs and inflation continue to place pressure on individuals living on fixed incomes, the need for reliable access to nutritious food has never been greater. This latest addition to the organization’s mobile fleet allows Gregory Outreach Services to double the number of individuals served, while maintaining strict food safety and quality standards.
“As the cost of living continues to rise, more seniors and veterans are struggling to afford nutritious food,” said Diana Gregory, Founder and CEO of Gregory Outreach Services. “This van allows us to bridge a widening gap for individuals living on fixed incomes, many of whom face mobility challenges and limited access to fresh food options.”
Meeting a Growing Community Need
Gregory Outreach Services works directly with seniors and veterans who are disproportionately affected by inflation, medical expenses, and transportation barriers. For many, simply reaching a grocery store can be a challenge. Refrigerated vehicles are essential to ensuring that fresh fruits and vegetables arrive safely and consistently at senior housing communities, veteran shelters, and community distribution sites.
“This third van complements the two already in operation and represents a critical milestone in our growth,” Gregory added. “We are deeply grateful to our anonymous donor for investing in our mission, and to BHHS Legacy Foundation’s Board of Directors and its CEO, Jerry Wissink for Legacy’s generosity in donating fresh produce. Together, this support allows us to scale our impact and respond to the increasing needs of our community.”
Expanding Impact While Preserving Dignity
With an expanded fleet and increased food supply, Gregory Outreach Services is better positioned to address food insecurity, promote healthier outcomes, and serve seniors and veterans with dignity, respect, and care. The organization’s mobile delivery model ensures help reaches those who need it most — directly and reliably.
About Gregory Outreach Services
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Gregory Outreach Services is a nonprofit organization dedicated to improving health outcomes for low-income seniors and veterans through mobile produce delivery, nutrition education, and community-based wellness programs. By bringing fresh food directly to those most in need, the organization works to reduce food insecurity and strengthen community wellness.
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How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Egg Market: Egg prices surged during the U.S. bird flu outbreak as laying hen inventories collapsed. Here’s how flock recovery is helping stabilize egg prices today.
How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Few grocery items frustrated American consumers over the past two years quite like eggs. Once an inexpensive staple, egg prices surged to historic highs following a prolonged outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu. Today, however, prices appear to be stabilizing. Here’s how the crisis unfolded — and why relief is finally showing up at the checkout line.
The Bird Flu Crisis and Its Impact on Egg Supply
Beginning in 2022, the United States experienced one of the most severe bird flu outbreaks in modern history. The virus spread rapidly through poultry farms, forcing producers to cull millions of birds to prevent further transmission. Egg-laying hens were hit especially hard, leading to a sharp drop in egg production nationwide. By 2024 and into early 2025, the cumulative losses totaled well over one hundred million birds. With fewer hens producing eggs, supply tightened dramatically, and prices soared. At the peak of the crisis, consumers in some regions saw egg prices climb above six dollars per dozen.
Why Egg Prices Stayed High for So Long
Unlike other agricultural products, egg production cannot rebound quickly after a disruption. When laying hens are lost, they must be replaced with young birds known as pullets. These pullets require approximately four to six months to mature before they begin producing eggs. Even after farms were cleared to restock, producers faced additional challenges. Strict biosecurity measures, concerns about reinfection, and the logistical complexity of rebuilding flocks slowed the recovery process. As a result, egg supplies remained tight long after the initial outbreaks subsided.
Laying Hen Inventory Recovery Takes Shape
By mid to late 2025, signs of recovery became more apparent. Producers gradually increased pullet placements, and national laying hen inventories began to grow. While the total number of hens had not yet returned to pre-outbreak levels, the upward trend marked an important turning point. This steady rebuilding of flocks meant more eggs entering the supply chain. Wholesale markets responded first, with prices easing as inventories improved. Retail prices soon followed, signaling that the worst of the supply shock was beginning to fade.
Egg Prices Begin to Stabilize
As laying hen inventories recovered, egg prices moved away from their record highs. By late 2025 and into early 2026, prices at many grocery stores had fallen noticeably compared to peak levels. While costs remain somewhat higher than pre-pandemic norms, the extreme volatility seen during the height of the bird flu crisis has largely subsided. Additional factors also helped stabilize the market. Federal and state efforts to strengthen biosecurity, limited egg imports to supplement domestic supply, and improved disease monitoring all contributed to a more balanced egg market.
What This Means for Consumers
For consumers, the stabilization of egg prices offers a welcome sense of normalcy. Shoppers are less likely to encounter sudden price spikes, and eggs are once again becoming a predictable part of grocery budgets. While prices may not return to the ultra-low levels seen years ago, the recovery of laying hen inventories suggests that the egg market is on firmer footing. Continued vigilance against future outbreaks will be critical, but for now, the outlook is far more stable than it was during the height of the bird flu crisis.
Looking Ahead
The bird flu outbreak served as a reminder of how vulnerable food systems can be to disease disruptions. Thanks to gradual flock rebuilding and improved supply conditions, egg prices are stabilizing — a sign that recovery, while slow, is real. If current trends continue, consumers and producers alike may finally be moving past one of the most turbulent chapters in the modern egg market.
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Senior Assist Day Marks Four Years of Supporting Seniors in South Phoenix
Senior Assist Day celebrates four years of serving seniors at Tanner Gardens in South Phoenix, led by Assistory Outreach Services and founder Jon Taylor.
Senior Assist Day Marks Four Years of Supporting Seniors in South Phoenix
PHOENIX, AZ — Senior Assist Day reached a meaningful milestone this year, marking four years of service to seniors living at Tanner Gardens in South Phoenix. Hosted by Assistory Outreach Services, the annual event continues to provide dignity, connection, and practical support to an often-overlooked population.
A Personal Beginning
The origins of Senior Assist Day are deeply personal for Assistory Outreach Services founder and CEO Jon Taylor.
“The origin of me going to Tanner Gardens was when I was with the 100 Black Men of Phoenix. We used to do a luncheon for seniors around December.”
That early connection took on new meaning as Taylor’s mother began showing signs of dementia, inspiring him to create an event rooted in empathy and care.
“I got a great feeling from being around those senior citizens. Senior Assist Day is roughly based on my mother.”
An Event That Continues to Grow
What began as a small gathering has grown into a full community experience. Seniors now enjoy catered meals, live music, personal care services, and gifts tailored to their needs. This year’s event included authentic Mexican food, live holiday music, haircuts provided by AJ’s Barbershop, and the donation of new shoes — a moment that stood out for many attendees.
“Seeing the excitement and how they were reacting to the new shoes was incredible,” Taylor said.
Beyond a Single Day
Senior Assist Day also helps build trust between Assistory Outreach Services and the residents of Tanner Gardens, opening the door to additional programs throughout the year. Through initiatives like the Digital Access Program for Seniors (DAPs), the organization helps seniors develop basic phone and computer skills, empowering them to stay connected and informed.
Challenges and Purpose
Keeping the event going year after year requires dedication and resources. Taylor personally raises funds and helps purchase gifts for more than 130 residents annually. Despite the challenges, his motivation remains strong.
“I do feel as though this is my ministry. I’m providing services, and I’m being fulfilled at the same time.”
Looking Ahead
Looking to the future, Taylor envisions Senior Assist Day becoming an all-day celebration, offering expanded services, entertainment, and meals — all focused exclusively on the residents of Tanner Gardens. As the event enters its fifth year, Senior Assist Day stands as a testament to what consistent community engagement and compassion can achieve. About Assistory Outreach ServicesAssistory Outreach Services is a community-based nonprofit organization dedicated to empowering seniors, low-income residents, and individuals experiencing homelessness. Assistory helps senior citizens embrace technology by teaching basic cell phone and computer skills, using a formula rooted in education, love, and patience to remove fear and build confidence. In addition to senior programming, the organization focuses on serving low-income and homeless populations by providing food boxes, holiday meals, and homeless care packages known as Assist Packs. This year, Assistory Outreach Services is expanding its impact by partnering with other nonprofits and religious organizations to coordinate food distribution through its community food pantry. Coverage by STM Daily News.
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