The Earth
Frequency of Extreme Fire Risk in the US has Grown 20X: Deep Sky Research
evels of widespread extreme fire risk which used to occur once every 100 years will now occur every 5
MONTREAL /PRNewswire/ — Deep Sky, the Canadian carbon removal project developer, has published original research on wildfire risk in the United States. A new report shares findings from Deep Sky Research and its Wildfire Risk Model on how wildfire risk is changing due to climate change. The model unveiled four key findings:
- Maximum Fire Risk Has Grown Approximately 15X Across North America
- The model shows that Extreme Fire Weather conditions previously seen once every 100 years will now happen on average every 7 years.
- Frequency of Extreme Fire Risk has Grown 20X
- The frequency of Extreme Fire Weather – exceeding the 95th percentile in that area – has grown even more sharply than severity. Levels of widespread extreme fire risk which used to occur once every 100 years will now occur every 5.
- Some Regions Face Even Faster Growing Risks
- Central Colorado and Northern New Mexico are seeing much more extreme fire weather today than in previous years, and Central California is facing staggering increases in extreme fire weather, for example.
- The Increase is Accelerating
- One startling finding from the Wildfire Risk Model is that the increases in Extreme Fire Weather are not linear. These risks are not only growing but have begun accelerating.
One way to understand the increase in wildfire destruction is to look at the underlying conditions that lead to wildfires. Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a measure developed by the Canadian Forestry Service but used globally to assess fire risk. It combines temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation to give a holistic view of landscape flammability.
Climate change, which directly impacts each of these inputs, is causing more frequent and more destructive wildfires. Deep Sky Research analyzed trends in fire weather across North America and found sharp increases in the probability of extreme conditions.
“Deep Sky Research uses a novel approach for predicting the impact of climate change,” said Max Dugan-Knight, Deep Sky Climate Data Scientist. “A risk assessment approach, just like the insurance industry uses, can help us predict disasters ahead of time. In the case of wildfires, an increase in frequency and severity is being driven by changes in extreme fire weather.”
Deep Sky Research developed a map to show how fire weather is changing in each county of the continental US. It shows how Extreme Fire Weather is becoming more frequent and more severe. The darker red the county, the greater the increase in fire weather. The few blue counties are actually seeing decreases in risk.
This is what climate scientists refer to as a “vicious cycle.” Climate change is causing worse fire weather conditions, which cause larger, more destructive wildfires, which cause huge carbon emissions, which themselves contribute to more climate change. If the death and destruction caused by wildfires is not reason enough to act on climate change, avoiding vicious cycles and tipping points surely is.
To read the full report, visit Where Will the Next Extreme Wildfire Be? on deepskyclimate.com/research.
About Deep Sky:
Montreal-based Deep Sky is the world’s first IP agnostic carbon removal project developer aiming to remove gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere and permanently store it underground. As a project developer, Deep Sky brings together the most promising direct air and ocean carbon capture companies under one roof to bring the largest supply of high quality carbon credits to the market and commercialize carbon removal and storage solutions like never before. With $75M in funding, Deep Sky is backed by world class investors including Investissement Québec, Brightspark Ventures, Whitecap Venture Partners, OMERS Ventures, BDC Climate Fund, and more. For more information, visit deepskyclimate.com.
SOURCE Deep Sky
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The Earth
Rare Florida fossil finally ends debate about how porcupine jaws and tails evolved
A nearly complete fossil of an extinct North American porcupine helped resolve a debate on its ancestors’ evolution, revealing distinct traits developed recently.
Natasha S. Vitek, Stony Brook University (The State University of New York)
A rare, nearly complete fossil of an extinct North American porcupine helped me and my colleagues solve a decades-long debate about how the modern North American porcupine evolved from its ancestors.
Published in Current Biology, our paper argues that North American porcupine ancestors may well date back 10 million years, but they wouldn’t be recognizable until about 8 million years later.
By comparing the bone structure of porcupines across North America and South America, we determined that for those 8 million years, North American porcupines unexpectedly still looked like their cousins, the Neotropical porcupines, which live across tropical Central America and South America today.
Our findings detail the North American porcupine’s evolutionary path from South America – and also solve the mystery of why it’s been so difficult to find its ancestors.
I’m a paleontologist who researches the fossilized bones and teeth of extinct animals. With museum curator Jon Bloch, I created a class where we analyzed bone structure to reach the conclusions of our study.
Why it matters
The modern North American porcupine is distinctive among its spiky relatives. It has a short tail, a jaw that can scrape bark from trees and weighs between 10 and 25 pounds (4.5 and 11.3 kilograms).
While clearly related, Neotropical porcupines look different. They have long, grasping tails, weaker jaws and weigh between 1.5 and 10 pounds (0.68 and 4.5 kilograms).
DNA analyses of modern animals estimate that these two groups separated about 10 million years ago.
This is where the mystery comes in. Fossils of the North American porcupine are all younger than 1.8 million years old. In other words, roughly 8.2 million years’ worth of fossils of North American porcupine were missing.
All researchers had were bits of jaws and tails that looked like they belonged to Neotropical porcupines.
Two competing hypotheses could explain the similarity.
Some scientists argued that the jaw and tail fossils of early ancestors of North American porcupines should look more like their modern descendants. Researchers who backed this idea suggested that the fossil record was incomplete for some unexplained reason, but that it was still possible that fossils that supported their hypothesis may eventually turn up.
Other scientists suggested that all early ancestral porcupines might have had jaws and tails similar to today’s Neotropical porcupines. North American porcupine ancestors might be hidden in the existing fossil record because – based on jaws and tails alone – they look identical to Neotropical porcupine ancestors. Only younger fossils would show distinctive traits because that’s when those traits appeared.
This debate went on for decades. It was impossible to solve with the available fossils.
How we did our work
Then researchers from the Florida Museum of Natural History unearthed a 2 million-year-old nearly complete skeleton of a porcupine in north-central Florida in 2005.
The fossil had a long tail and no bark-gnawing jaw, similar to Neotropical porcupines. But it also had dozens more bones that we could use to resolve relationships.
Collecting that evidence required combing through all the bones, looking for hundreds of minute details – like the shapes of ridges or patterns of boundaries on bones – and comparing these details with skeletons of modern North American and Neotropical porcupines. Bloch and I created a course in which students each took on one portion of the project.
Together, we came up with a list of nearly 150 informative details. Even though the specimen had a few traits similar to Neotropical porcupines, more evidence supported the idea that this fossil was a closer relative of North American porcupines.
Since this porcupine had a jaw and tail like its Neotropical cousins, it’s likely that most older relatives of the North American porcupine were also missing the distinctive traits of their modern descendants.
In other words, the solution to the mystery is that the fossil record for North American porcupines appeared young because the reinforced jaw and shorter tail evolved relatively recently. Porcupines looked different than what we expected for much of their 10 million years of ancestry.
The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.
Natasha S. Vitek, Assistant Professor of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University (The State University of New York)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Tech
A third of the world’s population lacks internet connectivity − airborne communications stations could change that
Mohamed-Slim Alouini, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and Mariette DiChristina, Boston University
About one-third of the global population, around 3 billion people, don’t have access to the internet or have poor connections because of infrastructure limitations, economic disparities and geographic isolation.
Today’s satellites and ground-based networks leave communications gaps where, because of geography, setting up traditional ground-based communications equipment would be too expensive.
High-altitude platform stations – telecommunications equipment positioned high in the air, on uncrewed balloons, airships, gliders and airplanes – could increase social and economic equality by filling internet connectivity gaps in ground and satellite coverage. This could allow more people to participate fully in the digital age.
One of us, Mohamed-Slim Alouini, is an electrical engineer who contributed to an experiment that showed it is possible to provide high data rates and ubiquitous 5G coverage from the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the second lowest layer of the atmosphere, ranging from 4 to 30 miles above the Earth. Commercial planes usually fly in the lower part of the stratosphere. The experiment measured signals between platform stations and users on the ground in three scenarios: a person staying in one place, a person driving a car and a person operating a boat.
My colleagues measured how strong the signal is in relation to interference and background noise levels. This is one of the measures of network reliability. The results showed that the platform stations can support high-data-rate applications such as streaming 4K resolution videos and can cover 15 to 20 times the area of standard terrestrial towers.
Early attempts by Facebook and Google to commercially deploy platform stations were unsuccessful. But recent investments, technological improvements and interest from traditional aviation companies and specialized aerospace startups may change the equation.
The goal is global connectivity, a cause that brought the platform stations idea recognition in the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Top 10 Emerging Technologies report. The international industry initiative HAPS Alliance, which includes academic partners, is also pushing toward that goal.
Fast, cost effective, flexible
Platform stations would be faster, more cost effective and more flexible than satellite-based systems.
Because they keep communications equipment closer to Earth than satellites, the stations could offer stronger, higher-capacity signals. This would enable real-time communications speedy enough to communicate with standard smartphones, high-resolution capabilities for imaging tasks and greater sensitivity for sensing applications. They transmit data via free-space optics, or light beams, and large-scale antenna array systems, which can send large amounts of data quickly.
Satellites can be vulnerable to eavesdropping or jamming when their orbits bring them over adversarial countries. But platform stations remain within the airspace of a single country, which reduces that risk.
High-altitude platform stations are also easier to put in place than satellites, which have high launch and maintenance costs. And the regulatory requirements and compliance procedures required to secure spots in the stratosphere are likely to be simpler than the complex international laws governing satellite orbits. Platform stations are also easier to upgrade, so improvements could be deployed more quickly.
Platform stations are also potentially less polluting than satellite mega-constellations because satellites burn up upon reentry and can release harmful metals into the atmosphere, while platform stations can be powered by clean energy sources such as solar and green hydrogen.
The key challenges to practical platform stations are increasing the amount of time they can stay aloft to months at a time, boosting green onboard power and improving reliability – especially during automated takeoff and landing through the lower turbulent layers of the atmosphere.
Beyond satellites
Platform stations could play a critical role in emergency and humanitarian situations by supporting relief efforts when ground-based networks are damaged or inoperative.
The stations could also connect Internet of Things (IoT) devices and sensors in remote settings to better monitor the environment and manage resources.
In agriculture, the stations could use imaging and sensing technologies to help farmers monitor crop health, soil conditions and water resources.
Their capability for high-resolution imaging could also support navigation and mapping activities crucial for cartography, urban planning and disaster response.
The stations could also do double duty by carrying instruments for atmospheric monitoring, climate studies and remote sensing of Earth’s surface features, vegetation and oceans.
From balloons to airplanes
Platform stations could be based on different types of aircraft.
Balloons offer stable, long-duration operation at high altitudes and can be tethered or free-floating. Airships, also known as dirigibles or blimps, use lighter-than-air gases and are larger and more maneuverable than balloons. They’re especially well suited for surveillance, communications and research.
Gliders and powered aircraft can be controlled more precisely than balloons, which are sensitive to variations in wind speed. In addition, powered aircraft, which include drones and fixed-wing airplanes, can provide electricity to communication equipment, sensors and cameras.
Next-generation power
Platform stations could make use of diverse power sources, including increasingly lightweight and efficient solar cells, high-energy-density batteries, green hydrogen internal combustion engines, green hydrogen fuel cells, which are now at the testing stage, and eventually, laser beam powering from ground- or space-based solar stations.
The evolution of lightweight aircraft designs coupled with advancements in high-efficiency motors and propellers enable planes to fly longer and carry heavier payloads. These cutting-edge lightweight planes could lead to platform stations capable of maneuvering in the stratosphere for extended periods.
Meanwhile, improvements in stratospheric weather models and atmospheric models make it easier to predict and simulate the conditions under which the platform stations would operate.
Bridging the global digital divide
Commerical deployment of platform stations, at least for post-disaster or emergency situations, could be in place by the end of the decade. For instance, a consortium in Japan, a country with remote mountainous and island communities, has earmarked US$100 million for solar-powered, high-altitude platform stations.
Platform stations could bridge the digital divide by increasing access to critical services such as education and health care, providing new economic opportunities and improving emergency response and environmental monitoring. As advances in technology continue to drive their evolution, platform stations are set to play a crucial role in a more inclusive and resilient digital future.
Mohamed-Slim Alouini, Distinguished Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and Mariette DiChristina, Dean and Professor of the Practice in Journalism, College of Communication, Boston University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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What is an Atlantic Niña? How La Niña’s smaller cousin could affect hurricane season
In August 2024, both La Niña and the lesser-known Atlantic Niña seem to be developing. This rare combination may impact Atlantic hurricane season, potentially reducing risk despite global warming’s influence.
Annalisa Bracco, Georgia Institute of Technology and Zachary Handlos, Georgia Institute of Technology
The North Atlantic Ocean has been running a fever for months, with surface temperatures at or near record highs. But cooling along the equator in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific may finally be starting to bring some relief, particularly for vulnerable coral reef ecosystems.
This cooling is related to two climate phenomena with similar names: La Niña, which forms in the tropical Pacific, and the less well-known Atlantic Niña.
Both can affect the Atlantic hurricane season. While La Niña tends to bring conditions ideal for Atlantic hurricanes, the less powerful Atlantic Niña has the potential to reduce some of the hurricane risk.
We’re ocean and atmospheric scientists who study this type of climate phenomenon. It’s rare to see both Niñas at the same time, yet in August 2024, both appeared to be developing. Let’s take a closer look at what that means.
La Niña and its cousin, Atlantic Niña
La Niña is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a well-known climate phenomenon that has widespread effects on climate and weather around the world.
During La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific dip below normal. Easterly trade winds then strengthen, allowing more cool water to well up along the equator off South America. That cooling affects the atmosphere in ways that reverberate across the planet. Some areas become stormier and others drier during La Niña, and the wind shear that can tear apart Atlantic hurricanes tends to weaken.
La Niña and its warmer opposite, El Niño, oscillate every three to four years or so. https://www.youtube.com/embed/wVlfyhs64IY?wmode=transparent&start=0 La Niña and its opposite, El Niño, explained. NOAA.
A similar climate phenomenon, Atlantic Niña, occurs in the Atlantic Ocean but at a much smaller scale and amplitude. It typically peaks around July or August and tends to have a shorter duration than its Pacific cousin, and much more modest and local impacts. Atlantic Niñas generally have the opposite effect of Atlantic Niños, which tend to reduce rainfall over Africa’s Sahel region and increase rainfall in Brazil and the countries that surround the Gulf of Guinea, such as Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon.
While much weaker than their Pacific counterpart, Atlantic Niñas can, however, partially counteract La Niñas by weakening summer winds that help drive the upwelling that cools the eastern Pacific.
Why might both happen now?
In July and August 2024, meteorologists noted cooling that suggested an Atlantic Niña might be developing along the equator. The winds at the ocean surface had been weak through most of the summer, and sea surface temperatures there were quite warm until early June, so signs an Atlantic Niña might be emerging were a surprise.
At the same time, waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific were also cooling, with La Niña conditions expected there around October or November.
Getting a Pacific-Atlantic Niña combination is rare but not impossible. It’s like finding two different pendulums that are weakly coupled to swing in opposite directions moving together in time. The combinations of La Niña and Atlantic Niño, or El Niño and Atlantic Niña are more common.
Good news or bad for hurricane season?
An Atlantic Niña may initially suggest good news for those living in hurricane-prone areas.
Cooler than average waters off the coast of Africa can suppress the formation of African easterly waves. These are clusters of thunderstorm activity that can form into tropical disturbances and eventually tropical storms or hurricanes.
Tropical storms draw energy from the process of evaporating water associated with warm sea surface temperatures. So, cooling in the tropical Atlantic could weaken this process. That would leave less energy for thunderstorms, which would reduce the probability of a tropical cyclone forming.
However, NOAA takes all factors into account when it updates its Atlantic hurricane season outlook, released in early August, and it still anticipates an extremely active 2024 season. Tropical storm season typically peaks in early to mid-September.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lcaEc/2
Two reasons are behind the busy forecast: The near record-breaking warm sea surface temperatures in much of the North Atlantic can strengthen hurricanes. And the expected development of a La Niña in the Pacific tends to weaken wind shear – the change in wind speed with height that can tear apart hurricanes. La Niña’s much stronger effects can override any impacts associated with the Atlantic Niña.
Exacerbating the problem: Global warming
The past two years have seen exceptionally high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and around much of the world’s oceans. The two Niñas are likely to contribute some cooling relief for certain regions, but it may not last long.
In addition to these cycles, the global warming trend caused by rising greenhouse gas emissions is raising the baseline temperatures and can fuel major hurricanes.
Annalisa Bracco, Professor of Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Georgia Institute of Technology and Zachary Handlos, Atmospheric Science Educator, Georgia Institute of Technology
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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