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Sun Activity Update: Flares on the Rise and CME Arrival Imminent

Sun activity surges with increasing flares and an approaching CME, promising spectacular auroras and geomagnetic storms. #SunActivity

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November 11, 2023. This chart shows NOAA’s aurora forecast for today. The coronal mass ejection that left the sun yesterday may arrive late today and extend through early tomorrow, November 12. So auroras are expected tonight and may reach high northern latitudes as far south as northern states in the U.S. Image via NOAA.

The sun has been displaying increased activity in recent days, with a surge in flare production and the imminent arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME). These events have captured the attention of skywatchers and scientists alike, as they hold the promise of spectacular auroral displays and provide valuable insights into the behavior of our nearest star. In this blog post, we will delve into the details of the sun’s recent activity on November 11, 2023, and explore what we can expect in the coming hours.



Flare Activity and Explosions:
Over the past 24 hours, the sun has experienced a notable increase in flare production, particularly in its western hemisphere. A total of 20 C flares were recorded during this period, a significant jump from the previous days’ average of approximately five flares per day. The northwestern region, in particular, showcased two notable events. Firstly, a fiery filament explosion occurred near sunspot AR3481 at 7 UTC on November 11, resulting in the ejection of material into space. Prior to this, at 3:59 UTC, active region AR3483 unleashed the largest flare of the day, a C7.2 flare. This region has been responsible for seven C-class flares, including the aforementioned event.



Incoming CME and Geomagnetic Activity:
Following the full halo event that transpired yesterday, propelling a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, we anticipate its arrival on Earth later today and possibly extending into early Sunday. As a result, there is an expected G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm, which could fuel awe-inspiring auroras. The geomagnetic field is currently tranquil, but this is likely to change as the CME interacts with our planet’s magnetic field. Aurora enthusiasts are advised to keep an eye on the sky and share their captivating photos.

Forecast for the Next 24 Hours:
Looking ahead, the forecast for the next 24 hours indicates an 80% chance of C flares, a 15% chance of M flares, and a 1% chance of X flares. These predictions highlight the continued potential for energetic solar activity, which could further contribute to the captivating celestial displays.

Analysis of Potential Earth-bound Components:
Experts are currently analyzing a couple of solar eruptions to determine if any of their components are heading towards Earth. The first eruption, near AR3484 at 19 UTC on November 10, and the second, involving a filament in the northwest that lifted plasma at around 22 UTC on November 10, are currently under scrutiny. However, further analysis using coronagraph data is required to ascertain the potential Earthward trajectory of these events.


The sun’s recent surge in flare activity on November 11, 2023, has provided astronomers and skywatchers with an exciting spectacle. With the arrival of a CME expected in the coming hours, the stage is set for a possible geomagnetic storm and dazzling auroras. As we continue to witness these celestial phenomena, we gain valuable insights into the behavior of the sun and its profound impact on our planet. So, keep your eyes to the sky, capture the beauty of the auroras, and join us in marveling at the wonders of our dynamic star, the sun.

Check out this article on EarthSky. https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

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astronomy

The Close Encounter of Asteroid 2008 OS7: Understanding Near Earth Objects and Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

Asteroid 2008 OS7, a cosmic visitor, will pass Earth safely, sparking curiosity about our cosmic neighborhood.

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shooting star burning against a starry night sky
Photo by Justinne Camacho on Pexels.com

On the afternoon of February 2, 2024, a cosmic visitor will make its closest approach to Earth. Named 2008 OS7, this asteroid will dash past our planet at a staggering speed of about 18.2 km/s, or roughly 40,700 mph. To put this into perspective, this velocity far surpasses that of a speeding bullet, which typically ranges between 600 and 2,000 mph.

Asteroids, remnants from the early formation of our solar system, mostly inhabit the Asteroid Belt, positioned between Mars and Jupiter. While most are relatively small, some, like the colossal Ceres measuring about 600 miles across, are truly massive. Occasionally, due to gravitational forces from Jupiter or collisions, these space rocks find themselves hurtling into the inner solar system, leading to encounters with Earth.

2008 OS7 falls into the category of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and is also labeled a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) due to its size and close proximity to Earth. NEOs are defined as celestial objects within 30 million miles of Earth, encompassing a staggering 31,000 items within our solar system. PHAs, a more critical subset, are those that approach within 4.6 million miles and boast a diameter exceeding 460 feet. Currently, NASA keeps tabs on around 2,350 PHAs.

Read Newsweek’s story.: https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-asteroid-empire-state-building-size-flyby-1865684

Martin Barstow, a professor of astrophysics and space science at the University of Leicester, explained the PHA classification to Newsweek, underlining the potential regional damage such an object could cause if it were to collide with Earth. Despite this classification, 2008 OS7 poses no threat to our planet, as it will not come anywhere near colliding with us.

Minjae Kim, a research fellow at the University of Warwick, emphasized in a statement to Newsweek that although 2008 OS7 has been labeled as a PHA, it won’t enter Earth’s atmosphere. Kim also pointed out the multitude of asteroids in our solar system, with approximately 2,350 classified as PHAs, and highlighted the next significant approach to Earth by a PHA, which will be the 99942 Apophis on April 14, 2029.

For sky enthusiasts hoping to catch a glimpse of this celestial passerby, 2008 OS7 will be disappointingly difficult to spot. Kim noted that the asteroid’s orbit around the sun takes approximately 962 days, and its estimated diameter ranges from 0.221 to 0.494 kilometers, placing it in the category of a small to moderately-sized asteroid, akin to the size of a football field. Unfortunately, due to their faintness, asteroids are generally challenging to detect using current observational techniques, making them virtually impossible to see with the naked eye.

As we prepare for this celestial event, it serves as a reminder of the intricate dance of celestial bodies around our planet and the ongoing work to monitor and understand the potential impact of near-Earth objects. While 2008 OS7 will shoot past our planet without incident, it underscores the importance of continued vigilance and exploration of our cosmic neighborhood.

Source: Newsweek

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astronomy

Meteoric Marvel: The Berlin 2024 BX1 Asteroid Encounter

Berlin’s cosmic spectacle: 2024 BX1 asteroid fragments unearthed, igniting global fascination and scientific inquiry.

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Early on January 21, 2024, the tranquil skies over Berlin, Germany, were briefly interrupted by a spectacular celestial event. A small asteroid, now identified as 2024 BX1, made a dramatic entrance into Earth’s atmosphere, captivating local observers with a brilliant burst of light as it exploded upon entry. The aftermath of this cosmic visitation has sparked a flurry of excitement as fragments of the meteorite have been discovered in the countryside west of Berlin.

The Natural History Museum Berlin announced on January 26, 2024, that suspected fragments of the asteroid, approximately the size of a walnut, had been recovered by dedicated hunters. This discovery has ignited a surge of interest and enthusiasm within the scientific community and among enthusiasts of astronomy and space exploration worldwide.



In the wake of this extraordinary event, numerous meteorite hunters have taken to social media to share their own remarkable finds, further fueling the public’s fascination with this cosmic occurrence. The collective effort to recover these celestial fragments underscores the enduring allure of space and the unwavering human curiosity about the mysteries beyond our planet.

The discovery of the 2024 BX1 asteroid fragments not only provides a rare opportunity for scientists to study the composition and origins of these extraterrestrial remnants, but it also serves as a poignant reminder of the profound and unpredictable forces at play in our universe.

As we witness the convergence of scientific inquiry, public engagement, and the magnificence of the cosmos, the Berlin 2024 BX1 asteroid encounter stands as a testament to the enduring enchantment of space exploration and the unyielding spirit of discovery that unites us all.

Stay tuned for further updates as the scientific community delves deeper into the secrets held within these newfound celestial treasures, shedding light on the enigmatic journey of the 2024 BX1 asteroid and offering invaluable insights into the boundless wonders of our universe.

Source: EarthSky

Visit our science section: https://q5i.09c.myftpupload.com/category/science/

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The Great Solar Eclipse of 2024: A Once-in-a-Lifetime Celestial Spectacle

The 2024 total solar eclipse: a rare event uniting millions, set to create unforgettable memories for generations.

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eclipse digital wallpaper
Photo by Drew Rae on Pexels.com

In just 75 days, North America will bear witness to a rare and awe-inspiring event—the total solar eclipse. This celestial phenomenon will cast parts of 15 U.S. states, alongside sections of Mexico and Canada, into an extraordinary darkness during the day. This upcoming eclipse brings to mind the monumental solar eclipse of January 24, 1925, which left an indelible mark on the U.S. northeast, particularly in New York City.

https://q5i.09c.myftpupload.com/get-ready-to-witness-the-breathtaking-total-solar-eclipse-of-2024-across-north-america/

Back in 1925, the eclipse divided the city, creating a unique dichotomy between those who experienced totality and those who witnessed only a partial eclipse. The boundary of the path of totality, initially predicted to be 83rd Street, was expected to split Manhattan into two distinct viewing experiences. However, the actual boundary was revealed to be 96th Street, and the eclipse arrived four seconds behind schedule, challenging the preconceived notions of the event.

As we eagerly anticipate the upcoming eclipse, it’s essential to reflect on the lessons learned from historical mispredictions. The precision of modern eclipse predictions has significantly improved, yet numerous variables still influence each event. Factors such as the moon’s terrain, observer’s elevation, Earth’s rotation speed, and the apparent size of the sun contribute to the uniqueness of each eclipse. Understanding these variables is crucial, especially for those living on the edge of totality, as seen in cities like San Antonio and Austin, Texas.

The upcoming eclipse provides an opportunity for cities like Rochester, New York, to relive a momentous event that last occurred in 1925. With preparations underway for the ROC the Eclipse festival at the Rochester Museum & Science Center, the community eagerly awaits the chance to witness a 3 minutes 40 seconds totality—a significantly longer duration than in 1925.

The anticipation for this celestial event serves as a unifying force, offering a positive shared experience for millions. As Dan Schneiderman, Eclipse Partnership Manager at the Rochester Museum & Science Center, aptly puts it, “We want people to have that positive shared experience they always remember, so random strangers can ask each other ‘where were you during that total solar eclipse?'”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2024/01/24/99-years-ago-today-a-total-solar-eclipse-split-a-major-us-city-and-history-will-repeat-itself-in-75-days/?sh=1d44bb13746f

The forthcoming total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for millions across the 15 fortunate U.S. states. It presents a chance to marvel at the wonders of the universe, uniting communities in an extraordinary shared experience. As we approach this historic event, let us embrace the opportunity to witness the splendor of the cosmos and create lasting memories that will be cherished for generations to come.

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