Economy
Why aren’t companies speeding up investment? A new theory offers an answer to an economic paradox
David Ikenberry discusses the paradox of slow corporate investment despite record profits and cash reserves. He attributes this to excess capacity and structural economic rigidities, challenging traditional assessments like Tobin’s Q and highlighting the need for understanding demand issues in economic policy.
David Ikenberry, University of Colorado Boulder
For years, I’ve puzzled over a question that seems to defy common sense: If stock markets are hitting records and tech innovation seems endless, why aren’t companies pouring money back into new projects?
Yes, they’re still investing – but the pace of business spending is slower than you’d expect, especially outside of AI.
And if you’ve noticed headlines about sluggish business spending even as corporate profits soar, you’re not alone. It’s a puzzle that’s confounded economists, policymakers and investors for decades. Back in 1975, U.S. public companies reinvested an average of 25 cents for every dollar on their balance sheets. Today, that figure is closer to 12 cents.
In other words, corporate America is flush with cash, but it’s surprisingly stingy about reinvesting in its own future. What happened?
I’m an economist, and my colleague Gustavo Grullon and I recently published a study in the Journal of Finance that turns the field’s conventional wisdom on its head. Our research suggests the issue isn’t cautious executives or jittery markets – it’s about how economists have historically measured companies’ incentives to invest in the first place.
Asking the wrong Q
For decades, economists have relied on a simple but appealing ratio – Tobin’s Q, named after the famous economist James Tobin – to gauge whether companies should ramp up investment.
They calculate this by dividing a company’s market value – what it would take to purchase the firm outright with cash – by its replacement value, or how much it would cost to rebuild the company from scratch. The result is called “Q.” The higher the Q, the theory goes, the more incentive executives have to invest.
But reality hasn’t conformed to fit the theory. Over the past half-century, Tobin’s Q has gone up, yet investment rates have gone down sharply.
Why the disconnect? Our research points to one key culprit: excess capacity. Many U.S. companies already have more factories, machines or service capability than they can use. By not correcting for this issue, the traditional Tobin’s Q will overstate the incentive that companies have to grow.
To see this, consider a commercial real estate company that owns a portfolio of office buildings. In recent years, with the rise of e-commerce and remote work, many of their properties have been running well below capacity. Now suppose a few new tenants start paying rent and begin absorbing a portion of that empty space. Stock prices will rise in response to seeing these new cash flows, which in turn will lead Q to rise.
Traditionally, this increase in Q would suggest that it’s a good time to invest in new buildings – but the reality is quite different with idle capacity still in the system. Why pour money into building another office tower if existing ones still have empty floors?
This key idea is that what matters isn’t the average value of all assets – it’s the marginal value of adding one more dollar of investment. And because capacity utilization has been steadily eroding over the past half-century, many firms see little reason to invest.
That last point may come as a surprise, but the U.S. economy, with all its factories and offices, isn’t nearly as abuzz with activity as it was after, say, World War II. Today, many sectors operate well below full throttle. This growing slack in the system over time helps explain why companies have pulled back on their rate of investment, even as profits and market values climb.
Why has capacity utilization fallen so much over the past half-century? It’s not entirely clear, but what economists call “structural economic rigidities” – things such as regulatory hurdles, labor market frictions or shifts in cost structure – seem to be part of the answer. These factors can drag businesses into a state of chronic underuse, especially after recessions.
Why it matters
This isn’t just an academic debate. The implications are profound, whether you closely follow Wall Street or just enjoy armchair economic policy debates. For one thing, this dynamic might help explain why tax cuts haven’t spurred investment the way supporters have hoped.
Take the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and introduced full expensing for equipment investments. Supporters promised a wave of new investment.
But when my colleague and I looked at the numbers, we found the opposite. In the four years before the tax cuts, publicly traded U.S. firms had an aggregate investment rate, including intangibles, of 13.9%. In the four years after the tax cut, the average investment rate fell to 12.4% – in other words, no evidence of a bump.
Where did those liberated cash flows go? Instead of plowing this newfound cash after the tax cuts into new projects, many companies funneled it into stock buybacks and dividends.
In retrospect, this makes sense. If a company has excess capacity, the incentive to invest should be more muted, even if new machines are suddenly cheaper thanks to tax breaks. If the demand isn’t there, why buy them?
Even with the most generous tax incentives, the core challenge remains: You can’t force-feed investment into an economy already swimming in excess capacity. If companies don’t see real, scalable demand, tax breaks alone aren’t likely to unlock a new era of business spending.
That doesn’t mean tax policy doesn’t matter – it does, especially for smaller firms with real growth prospects. But for the large, well-established firms that make up the lion’s share of the economy, the bigger challenge is demand. Rather than trying to stimulate even more investment, policymakers should prioritize understanding why demand is sagging relative to supply and reducing economic rigidities where they can. That way, the capacity generated by new investment has somewhere useful to go.
David Ikenberry, Professor of Finance, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Major Popeyes Franchisee Sailormen Files for Chapter 11 — What It Means for Restaurants and the Economy
Sailormen Inc., a major Popeyes franchisee operating 130+ locations in Florida and Georgia, filed for Chapter 11 on Jan. 15, 2026 amid rising costs and heavy debt. Many restaurants are expected to remain open as restructuring continues.
A major Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen franchise operator is heading to bankruptcy court — but the headline does notmean Popeyes corporate is filing, or that every restaurant involved is about to close.
Sailormen Inc., a Miami-based Popeyes franchisee that has operated in the system since 1987, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Jan. 15, 2026. The company operates more than 130 Popeyes locations across Florida and Georgia (some industry coverage puts the count at 136), making it one of the chain’s largest franchise groups in the region.
Franchisee filing, not a Popeyes corporate bankruptcy
This case involves Sailormen (the operator) — not Popeyes corporate and not parent company Restaurant Brands International.
In a message referenced in industry reporting, Popeyes leadership said Sailormen’s filing does not reflect the overall health of the Popeyes brand, and that a large majority of Sailormen’s restaurants are expected to remain open while the company restructures.
What pushed Sailormen into Chapter 11
Court-related summaries and industry coverage point to a familiar mix of pressures hitting restaurant operators:
- Inflation and higher operating costs (food, labor, and day-to-day expenses)
- Higher borrowing costs as interest rates climbed
- Liquidity strain, including reports of falling behind on rent and facing pressure from landlords and vendors
- Legal disputes, including vendor-related claims tied to unpaid balances
The failed store sale that worsened the situation
One key detail: Sailormen reportedly tried to sell 16 Georgia restaurants to stabilize finances. That deal fell through, and the company remained responsible for lease guarantees tied to those locations — a liability that can linger even if other stores are performing.
The debt and the lender pressure
Industry reporting describes Sailormen as carrying a heavy debt load — cited at about $130 million overall.
More detailed figures cited in coverage include:
- Over $112 million in unpaid principal loan balance
- Over $17 million in accrued interest and fees
Reporting also points to pressure from BMO (BMO Bank), described as Sailormen’s largest lender. In December 2025, BMO reportedly sought to appoint a receiver, a move that can displace management and take control of a company’s assets. Sailormen’s Chapter 11 filing allows the company to continue operating as a debtor-in-possession while it attempts to reorganize.
Why this matters for “Food” and “Our Economy”
This isn’t just a Popeyes story — it’s a snapshot of what happens when restaurant operators face higher costs, value-conscious consumers, and more expensive debt at the same time.
Chapter 11 is designed to reorganize a business, not automatically liquidate it. For customers, the near-term impact may be limited if most locations stay open.
STM Daily News will follow this story as it develops, including any updates on store operations, restructuring plans, and potential sales of locations.
Sources
- Restaurant Business: “A big Popeyes franchisee files for bankruptcy” https://restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/big-popeyes-franchisee-files-bankruptcy
- Restaurant Dive: “Large Popeyes franchisee files for Chapter 11” https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/popeyes-frachisee-sailormen-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy-protections/809854/
For more food business headlines and how they connect to the real economy, follow STM Daily News.
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Economy
6 Wild Truths About America’s 2025 Spending Habits: Fetch Reveals Surprising Consumer Trends
The Fetch Finds Report reveals that in 2025, Americans balanced hard work with self-care, reflecting a mix of discipline and indulgence. Notable trends included a resurgence in meat sales, increased dining out, a focus on organization, and a rise in comfort-related purchases.
The Fetch Finds Report reveals a year of hustle, comfort, and delightfully chaotic shopping carts
Americans in 2025 were a study in contradictions. We hit the gym but also hit the couch. We decluttered our homes while filling our carts. We powered through demanding days with energy gels and powered down with weighted blankets and candles.
That’s the picture painted by Fetch’s first-ever full-year Fetch Finds Report, which analyzed more than $179 billion in consumer transactions. With 12 million receipts submitted daily, the data tells a story that’s equal parts discipline and indulgence—a snapshot of a nation trying to balance the hustle with some much-needed comfort.
6 Wild Truths About America’s 2025 Spending Habits: Fetch Reveals Surprising Consumer Trends
The Six Spending Surprises of 2025
1. The Meatless Revolution Has Expired
Remember when plant-based everything was the future? In 2025, Americans said “thanks, but no thanks” and brought meat back to the table. Fresh beef sales jumped 13%, pork climbed 12%, while refrigerated plant-based alternatives dropped 11%. Despite rising grocery costs, consumers chose the real deal over the meatless alternatives.
2. America’s Eating Out—and Sushi’s on a Roll
Even with tighter budgets, dining out surged. And the big winner? Sushi, with a massive 45.6% increase in trip growth. Mexican restaurants saw a respectable 13.9% bump, and pizza grew 6.7%. But sushi absolutely dominated the dining-out conversation this year.
3. Endurance Nutrition Takes a Victory Lap
Energy chews and gels jumped 27.4% in 2025. Whether Americans were actually running marathons or just trying to survive Monday morning meetings, endurance nutrition became a go-to for powering through demanding days.
4. The Great American Declutter Hit Overdrive
Self-care became shelf-care. Household storage bags surged 55.8%, charging valets climbed 37%, and cleaning gloves rose 13.4%. Getting organized wasn’t just about tidiness—it became an act of wellness. A clean space, a clear mind.
5. Protein Moved into the Pantry
Protein isn’t just for gym bros anymore. Everyday staples got a protein makeover:
- Protein-labeled breakfast cereals: +69.8%
- Protein granola: +45.9%
- Protein dry pasta: +35.4%
Consumers wanted their regular foods to work harder, turning breakfast and dinner into opportunities to fuel up.
6. America Powered Down and Got Comfortable
Comfort became the ultimate status symbol. Loungewear sales soared 218%, weighted blankets climbed 45%, and candles rose 20%. After all that hustle, Americans made winding down a priority—and they weren’t shy about investing in it.
What This Tells Us
The Fetch Finds Report captures something real about 2025: Americans were navigating a shifting economy with a mix of practicality and self-care. We pushed hard during the day and gave ourselves permission to relax at night. We organized our homes, fueled our bodies with protein, and treated ourselves to sushi dinners and cozy nights in.
“Fetch sees what others can’t: how people actually spend based on billions of purchases,” said Jacob Grocholski, Vice President of Analytics at Fetch. “This year, we saw a chaotic mix of discipline and indulgence that defined how people navigated 2025.”
About the Data
The findings come from Fetch, America’s Rewards App, which captures billions of spending transactions annually using AI and machine learning. With more than 6 million five-star reviews and users submitting 12 million receipts daily, Fetch has unmatched visibility into what consumers actually buy—at the item level, across every channel and retailer.
Want the full breakdown? Read the complete Fetch Finds Report for all the details on America’s 2025 spending habits.
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Economy
How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Egg Market: Egg prices surged during the U.S. bird flu outbreak as laying hen inventories collapsed. Here’s how flock recovery is helping stabilize egg prices today.
How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Few grocery items frustrated American consumers over the past two years quite like eggs. Once an inexpensive staple, egg prices surged to historic highs following a prolonged outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu. Today, however, prices appear to be stabilizing. Here’s how the crisis unfolded — and why relief is finally showing up at the checkout line.The Bird Flu Crisis and Its Impact on Egg Supply
Beginning in 2022, the United States experienced one of the most severe bird flu outbreaks in modern history. The virus spread rapidly through poultry farms, forcing producers to cull millions of birds to prevent further transmission. Egg-laying hens were hit especially hard, leading to a sharp drop in egg production nationwide. By 2024 and into early 2025, the cumulative losses totaled well over one hundred million birds. With fewer hens producing eggs, supply tightened dramatically, and prices soared. At the peak of the crisis, consumers in some regions saw egg prices climb above six dollars per dozen.Why Egg Prices Stayed High for So Long
Unlike other agricultural products, egg production cannot rebound quickly after a disruption. When laying hens are lost, they must be replaced with young birds known as pullets. These pullets require approximately four to six months to mature before they begin producing eggs. Even after farms were cleared to restock, producers faced additional challenges. Strict biosecurity measures, concerns about reinfection, and the logistical complexity of rebuilding flocks slowed the recovery process. As a result, egg supplies remained tight long after the initial outbreaks subsided.Laying Hen Inventory Recovery Takes Shape
By mid to late 2025, signs of recovery became more apparent. Producers gradually increased pullet placements, and national laying hen inventories began to grow. While the total number of hens had not yet returned to pre-outbreak levels, the upward trend marked an important turning point. This steady rebuilding of flocks meant more eggs entering the supply chain. Wholesale markets responded first, with prices easing as inventories improved. Retail prices soon followed, signaling that the worst of the supply shock was beginning to fade.Egg Prices Begin to Stabilize
As laying hen inventories recovered, egg prices moved away from their record highs. By late 2025 and into early 2026, prices at many grocery stores had fallen noticeably compared to peak levels. While costs remain somewhat higher than pre-pandemic norms, the extreme volatility seen during the height of the bird flu crisis has largely subsided. Additional factors also helped stabilize the market. Federal and state efforts to strengthen biosecurity, limited egg imports to supplement domestic supply, and improved disease monitoring all contributed to a more balanced egg market.What This Means for Consumers
For consumers, the stabilization of egg prices offers a welcome sense of normalcy. Shoppers are less likely to encounter sudden price spikes, and eggs are once again becoming a predictable part of grocery budgets. While prices may not return to the ultra-low levels seen years ago, the recovery of laying hen inventories suggests that the egg market is on firmer footing. Continued vigilance against future outbreaks will be critical, but for now, the outlook is far more stable than it was during the height of the bird flu crisis.Looking Ahead
The bird flu outbreak served as a reminder of how vulnerable food systems can be to disease disruptions. Thanks to gradual flock rebuilding and improved supply conditions, egg prices are stabilizing — a sign that recovery, while slow, is real. If current trends continue, consumers and producers alike may finally be moving past one of the most turbulent chapters in the modern egg market.Further Reading & Sources
- USDA – Avian Influenza Updates and Poultry Industry Impact
- USDA Economic Research Service – Egg Prices and Food Inflation Data
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Consumer Price Index (Egg Prices)
- Associated Press – Coverage of the U.S. Bird Flu Outbreak
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service – Egg Market and Wholesale Reports
- CDC – Avian Influenza Information and Monitorin
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