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Why Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire now − and what it means for Israel, Lebanon, Biden and Trump

Published

2 months ago

December 4, 2024

Daily News Staff

Asher Kaufman, University of Notre Dame

Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah entered a 60-day ceasefire on Nov. 26, 2024, a move aimed at reducing tensions in the region more than a year into a multifront conflict.

Under the terms of the deal, Israel would gradually withdraw its forces from Lebanon, and Hezbollah would fully withdraw north of the Litani River. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army would “deploy and take control over their own territory,” U.S. President Joe Biden said, adding that the United States, France and other allies have pledged to support the deal.

But what does the deal mean for the parties involved and future prospects for a more permanent cessation of hostilities? The Conversation U.S. turned to Asher Kaufman, an expert of Lebanon and border conflicts in the Middle East, to explain why they reached a ceasefire now and what it means going forward.

Why is the ceasefire deal happening now?

The timing of this ceasefire is the result of a convergence of interests among the government in Israel, Hezbollah itself and that of its chief sponsor, Iran – but all for different reasons.

For the Israeli government, domestic issues are at play. First off, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are exhausted after more than a year of war. This is particularly true for Israeli reservists, a growing number of whom are not turning up for duty. The Israeli general public, too, is tired of conflict, and a majority favors a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also has internal issues in his government to contend with. He is facing pressure from the ruling coalition’s ultra-Orthodox partners to draw up laws exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from the military draft.

Reducing the need for active personnel by quieting the front with Lebanon will help in that regard. The secular and national-religious sectors of the society who do serve in the IDF and who are upset with the possibility of a formal draft-exemption law for ultra-Orthodox men may be more inclined to swallow this pill if the war with Hezbollah is over.

From the Israeli army’s perspective, the war in Lebanon is coming to a point of diminishing returns. It has succeeded in weakening Hezbollah’s military standing but has been unable to wipe the militant group out entirely.

This also factors into Hezbollah’s thinking. The group has been seriously debilitated in Lebanon; the war has eroded its military capabilities. Unlike its previous position – reiterated time and again over the past year by its now-dead leader, Hassan Nasrallah – that a ceasefire would only be possible if first it is reached between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran are now willing to delink the two fronts. This leaves Hamas in a far weaker position as they are now left without the support of Iran’s main proxy “axis of resistance” group. Drawing Hezbollah, and other aligned groups in the region, into direct confrontation with Israel had been Hamas’ hope when it launched its attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Hezbollah and Lebanon’s other political factions also have strong domestic pressures to contend with. Lebanon has more than 1 million refugees as a result of the conflict – the vast majority of them Shia, the branch of Islam that Hezbollah is drawn from. The conditions in Lebanon have increased the risk of sectarian fighting between Shia and others factions in the country. For Hezbollah leaders, the time may seem right to cut their losses and prepare to regroup as a political and military body.

Iran, too, is seeking to rehabilitate Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon as soon as possible. The deal comes as Tehran is bracing for a U.S. administration that could have a more hawkish position on Iran and its proxies in the region, of which Hezbollah is the most significant. With a new Iranian president, and a new U.S. administration, a ceasefire between Iran’s main proxy and Israel may be a first step to Tehran building a constructive dialogue with a Trump White House.

What is the role of the US in the ceasefire?

What is interesting for me is that despite the very clear position of the U.S. in favoring Israel during the past year of conflict, it still functions as an effective mediator. It is thanks to the U.S. that there is a ceasefire – and it comes despite the fact that Washington is far from neutral in this conflict, being a chief ally of Israel and its main provider of weapons.

But the Lebanese government and Hezbollah see a U.S. role, too. And this is not new. The United States was the mediator in the 2022 landmark agreement that, for the first time, set out the maritime boundaries between Israel and Lebanon.

The ceasefire deal benefits both the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations. For President Joe Biden, it would represent a diplomatic success after a year in which the U.S. has failed to mediate any breakthrough in the conflict in Gaza, and it is an opportunity for Biden to finish his presidency on a positive foreign policy note. From the perspective of Trump, the ceasefire in Lebanon will represent one less problem for him to face.

What might be the consequences for Lebanon and Israel?

Lebanon has the most at stake in this ceasefire holding. The country was already in a perilous economic situation before the war, and months of fighting has only worsened the structural, economic and political crises in the country. It is as dire as it can get.

Further, the war has reignited sectarian tension in Lebanon – talk of a return to civil war in the country is not far-fetched.

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But there is uncertainty over how the ceasefire will affect the various rival factions in Lebanese society. Hezbollah has been weakened and may well now look for a way to reassert its strength in Lebanon’s politics. The main question is how the other factions and parties respond to that.

With a weak Hezbollah, other factions may challenge the militant organization in ways they haven’t before. Before being decimated by Israel, there were no rival groups in a position to challenge Hezbollah in Lebanon. But that has all changed: Hezbollah’s military power has been degraded and Nasrallah, the group’s leader, killed. And Nasrallah was not just the face and brains of Hezbollah, he was also the group’s most important link to Iran.

There is concern among some Lebanon experts that the gap left by a weakened Hezbollah may see a struggle for power and further strife in the country. And I believe there should be no illusions that Hezbollah will try to reassert itself as a domestic force.

Complicating matters is the fact that any realignment of political forces in Lebanon comes amid a political vacuum. There has been a caretaker government – and no president – for two years now since Hezbollah conditioned the appointment of a new president with the candidate being an ally of the group. Now, Lebanese politicians would need to agree on a new president who in turn would appoint a new prime minister and government. It remains to be seen how this will unfold with a weakened Hezbollah.

For Israel, the ceasefire will provide an opportunity to reconstruct parts of the north that have been devastated by Hezbollah missiles and a possible return of the 60,000 Israelis who fled northern areas close to the Lebanon border. It will also allow the Israel Defense Forces to regroup, refresh and focus their resources in Gaza, rather than fighting on two fronts.

Could the ceasefire lead to a permanent peace deal?

I don’t see any permanent peace deal on the horizon, given the fact that the fundamental political goals of Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have not changed and that the Israel-Palestine conflict continues to fester.

But I am hopeful that the ceasefire could lead to calm and stability between Israel and Lebanon for the foreseeable future. The details of the ceasefire agreement are not very different from U.N. Resolution 1701 that ended the last major war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. That agreement brought relative calm to the region for 18 years, even if Hezbollah, supported by Iran, used these years to build up its military capability and prepare for a potential ground invasion of northern Israel.

In my view, there is a possibility for greater stability this time around given the fact that the ceasefire agreement also stipulates that, if and when it becomes permanent, the deal would serve as a basis for negotiations over the demarcation of the Israel-Lebanon territorial boundary. This would not be an easy task, particularly in the area of Shebaa Farms and the village of Ghajar. But with goodwill and good intentions, even difficult border disputes could be resolved.

Asher Kaufman, Professor of History and Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Urbanism

Metrolink is Coming Soon: Ready for a New Era of Commuting in Santa Barbara and Goleta!

Published

19 minutes ago

January 26, 2025

Rod Washington

Exciting news is on the horizon for commuters in the Santa Barbara and Goleta area! After years of planning and anticipation, the Metrolink commuter train service is set to launch this fall, providing a new, efficient way to travel between Ventura County and Santa Barbara County. With the increasing focus on alternative transportation options, this project represents a significant step forward for our communities and environment.

Metrolink is Getting Ready for a New Era of Commuting in Santa Barbara and Goleta

The Journey Begins

The Santa Barbara County Association of Governments (SBCAG) is at the forefront of this initiative, fulfilling a promise made to voters who approved a funding tax aimed at both widening the freeway and exploring innovative transportation alternatives. Originally considered along with Amtrak, the decision to partner with Metrolink emerged, as their schedules proved more conducive to the commuter needs of the area.

Metrolink’s plan is to operate a streamlined route starting from Moorpark, with stops in our beautiful Santa Barbara and Goleta, avoiding the timing conflicts that hampered the Amtrak discussions. Aaron Bonfilio, SBCAG’s Director of Multimodal Programs, emphasized the importance of this collaboration, saying, “working with them to develop this agreement is critical to the next step. And that’s what this is all about.”

A Convenient Ride

Imagine leaving Oxnard at a crisp 7 a.m. and arriving in Santa Barbara by 7:51 a.m., or reaching Goleta shortly after at 8:03 a.m. The convenience of this service is striking, with additional afternoon departures that will surely benefit daily commuters. Goleta Mayor Paula Perotte expressed her enthusiasm, stating, “Oh, that’s totally reasonable,” highlighting the strategic scheduling designed to meet local needs.

Riders can look forward to a brand new train depot in Goleta, currently under construction, with daily bus connections to enhance accessibility. Bonfilio mentioned the multiple options available through the Coastal Express, providing around 20 trips in both directions each morning and afternoon.

An Affordable and Productive Commute

The introductory round-trip fare of just $10, or $5 in each direction, is a refreshing incentive intended to encourage residents to leave their cars behind. It’s not only planet-friendly but wallet-friendly, too! For those opting to work during their commute, Mayor Perotte noted that riding the train may even allow workers to log their commute time since they can be productive on their laptops while on board.

Initial projections show around 200 daily riders, and with a capacity for over 500, there’s plenty of room for growth. “I think once people get used to riding the train, they’re going to love it,” said Mayor Perotte, sharing her vision of creating a new commuting habit that moves people away from sitting in traffic.

Ready to Roll

SBCAG is currently finalizing agreements to ensure everything is in place before the fall launch, paving the way for an exciting new chapter in commuting for Santa Barbara and Goleta residents. This initiative not only represents a practical solution to transportation challenges but also offers a glimpse into a future where public transit continues to evolve.

In closing, let’s prepare to say goodbye to traffic woes and hello to the ease and joy of train travel. Get ready to hop on the Metrolink and enjoy the ride into a more connected and sustainable future! 🚆✨

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News

FDA Issues Class I Recall for Costco’s Kirkland Signature Smoked Salmon

Published

15 hours ago

January 25, 2025

Rod Washington

In a significant health alert, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has upgraded the recall of Costco’s Kirkland Signature Smoked Salmon to a Class I designation, indicating a serious health risk. This recall follows the discovery of Listeria monocytogenes during routine laboratory testing.

Originally announced in late October, the recall involved 111 cases of smoked salmon packaged in twin 12-ounce units, with a UPC number of 0 96619 25697 6 and a lot number of 8512801270. The affected products have a best-by date of November 13, 2024, and were distributed between October 9 and October 13, 2024, specifically to Costco locations in Florida.

Listeria monocytogenes is known to cause listeriosis, a severe infection that can result in serious health complications or even death, especially among vulnerable populations such as pregnant individuals, the elderly, and those with weakened immune systems. Although no illnesses have been reported in connection with this product, consumers are advised to check their freezers for these recalled items.

FDA Issues Class I Recall for Costco’s Kirkland Signature Smoked Salmon

Costco is urging customers who purchased this product to return it for a full refund.

For your safety, the FDA reminds consumers that Listeria can be found in a variety of foods, particularly raw or smoked seafood, unpasteurized dairy products, and deli meats. If you suspect you may have consumed contaminated food, please consult with a healthcare professional.

Stay safe and informed by regularly checking for updates on food recalls from reliable sources.

Related links:

The FDA Issued a Class I Recall on Costco’s Kirkland Signature Smoked Salmon https://www.foodandwine.com/costco-kirkland-signature-smoked-salmon-class-i-recall-listeria-monocytogenes-8780336

https://www.fda.gov/food/foodborne-pathogens/listeria-listeriosis

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Groundbreaking for a Sustainable Future: LA Metro’s Southeast Gateway Line Light Rail Project

Groundbreaking for a Sustainable Future: LA Metro’s Southeast Gateway Line Light Rail Project

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Lifestyle

Newsweek Names Delta Dental of California One of America’s Greatest Workplaces for Diversity 2025

Published

3 days ago

January 23, 2025

Daily News Staff

Annual ranking recognizes companies fostering inclusion and championing diversity based on anonymous employee feedback, public data, and third-party research.

SAN FRANCISCO /PRNewswire/ — Delta Dental of California and Affiliates, the leading dental insurance provider, has been recognized by Newsweek as one of America’s Greatest Workplaces for Diversity in 2025. This distinguished award is presented by Newsweek and Plant-A Insights Group to recognize U.S. companies across industries that prioritize fostering diversity and inclusive workplace cultures.

“Our people are our greatest asset,” said Brian Sherman, executive vice president and chief people officer of Delta Dental of California and Affiliates. “This recognition reflects our deep commitment to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs that support and celebrate the unique perspectives and contributions of our employees.”

America’s Greatest Workplaces for Diversity is an annual ranking determined by a rigorous evaluation of public data, HR insights, and anonymous employee surveys. The list honors organizations with over 1,000 employees that demonstrate a meaningful commitment to offering distinctive company cultures inclusive of backgrounds and demographics, including age group, race, cultures, and sexual orientations. Research suggests about 80 percent of U.S. workers believe it’s important for companies to create inclusive cultures.

“As companies in the United States continue to navigate the evolving dynamics of the workplace, diversity remains a cornerstone of organizational success and social responsibility,” said Nancy Cooper, global editor in chief of Newsweek. “Newsweek and market-data research firm Plant-A Insights are proud to introduce ‘America’s Greatest Workplaces for Diversity 2025,’ highlighting companies committed to building inclusive workplaces.”

Delta Dental of California received a rating of 4.5 out of 5 stars for its Diversity, Equity and Inclusion practices in 2024. The company has also been recognized with other Newsweek accolades, including America’s Greatest Workplaces 2023, America’s Greatest Workplaces for Diversity 2023, and Americas Greatest Workplaces for Parents and Families 2023.

Delta Dental is committed to providing consistent, quality access to oral health care, improving education and driving lasting policy changes to address systemic issues. To learn more about what makes Delta Dental of California and Affiliates one of the best employers in the U.S., visit our career page.

About Delta Dental of California and Affiliates

Since 1955, Delta Dental of California and Affiliates has offered comprehensive, high-quality oral health care coverage to millions of enrollees and built the strongest network of dental providers in the country. The Delta Dental of California enterprise includes its affiliates Delta Dental Insurance Company, Delta Dental of Pennsylvania, Delta Dental of New York, Inc., as well as the national DeltaCare USA network, and provides dental benefits to more than 31 million people across 15 states and the District of Columbia.* All are members of the Delta Dental Plans Association based in Chicago, Illinois, the not-for-profit national association that through a national network of Delta Dental companies collectively covers millions of people nationwide. Delta Dental is a registered trademark of Delta Dental Plans Association.

For more information about Delta Dental of California and Affiliates, please visit www.deltadentalins.com

*Delta Dental of California and Affiliates’ operating areas encompass Alabama, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and the District of Columbia, as well as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

SOURCE Delta Dental of California