STM Daily News
Better but not stellar: Pollsters faced familiar complaints, difficulties in assessing Trump-Harris race
W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication
An oracle erred badly. The most impressive results were turned in by a little-known company in Brazil. A nagging problem reemerged, and some media critics turned profane in their assessments.
So it went for pollsters in the 2024 presidential election. Their collective performance, while not stellar, was improved from that of four years earlier. Overall, polls signaled a close outcome in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
That is what the election produced: a modest win for Trump.
With votes still being counted in California and a few other states more than a week after Election Day, Trump had received 50.1% of the popular vote to Harris’ 48.1%, a difference of 2 points. That margin was closer than Joe Biden’s win by 4.5 points over Trump in 2020. It was closer than Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory in 2016, closer than Barack Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012.
There were, moreover, no errors among national pollsters quite as dramatic as CNN’s estimate in 2020 that Biden led Trump by 12 points.
This time, CNN’s final national poll said the race was deadlocked – an outcome anticipated by six other pollsters, according to data compiled by RealClearPolitics.
The most striking discrepancy this year was the Marist College poll, conducted for NPR and PBS. It estimated Harris held a 4-point lead nationally at campaign’s end.
‘Oracle’ of Iowa’s big miss
In any event, a sense lingered among critics that the Trump-Harris election had resulted in yet another polling embarrassment, another entry in the catalog of survey failures in presidential elections, which is the topic of my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup.”
Comedian Jon Stewart gave harsh voice to such sentiments, saying of pollsters on his late-night program on election night, “I don’t ever want to fucking hear from you again. Ever. … You don’t know shit about shit, and I don’t care for you.”
Megyn Kelly, a former Fox News host, also denounced pollsters, declaring on her podcast the day after the election: “Polling is a lie. They don’t know anything.”
Two factors seemed to encourage such derision – a widely discussed survey of Iowa voters released the weekend before the election and Trump’s sweep of the seven states where the outcome turned.
The Iowa poll injected shock and surprise into the campaign’s endgame, reporting that Harris had taken a 3-point lead in the state over Trump. The result was likened to a “bombshell” and its implications seemed clear: If Harris had opened a lead in a state with Iowa’s partisan profile, her prospects of winning elsewhere seemed strong, especially in the Great Lakes swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The survey was conducted for the Des Moines Register by J. Ann Selzer, a veteran Iowa-based pollster with an outstanding reputation in opinion research. In a commentary in The New York Times in mid-September, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson declared Selzer “the oracle of Iowa.” Rachel Maddow of MSNBC praised Selzer’s polls before the election for their “uncanny predictive accuracy.” Ratings released in June by data guru Nate Silver gave Selzer’s polls an A-plus grade.
But this time, Selzer’s poll missed dramatically.
Trump carried Iowa by 13 points, meaning the poll was off by 16 points – a stunning divergence for an accomplished pollster.
“Even the mighty have been humbled” by Trump’s victory, the Times of London said of Selzer’s polling failure.
Selzer said afterward she will “be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that (discrepancy) happened.”
It is possible, other pollsters suggested, that Selzer’s reliance on telephone-based surveying contributed to the polling failure. “Phone polling alone … isn’t going to reach low-propensity voters or politically disengaged nonwhite men,” Tom Lubbock and James Johnson wrote in a commentary for The Wall Street Journal.
These days, few pollsters rely exclusively on the phone to conduct election surveys; many of them have opted for hybrid approaches that combine, for example, phone, text and online sampling techniques.
Surprise sweep of swing states
Trump’s sweep of the seven vigorously contested swing states surely contributed to perceptions that polls had misfired again.
According to RealClearPolitics, Harris held slender, end-of-campaign polling leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
Trump won them all, an outcome no pollster anticipated – except for AtlasIntel of Sao Paulo, Brazil, a firm “about which little is known,” as The New Republic noted.
AtlasIntel estimated Trump was ahead in all seven swing states by margins that hewed closely to the voting outcomes. In none of the swing states did AtlasIntel’s polling deviate from the final vote tally by more than 1.3 points, an impressive performance.
AtlasIntel did not respond to email requests I sent requesting information about its background and polling technique. The company describes itself as “a leading innovator in online polling” and says it uses “a proprietary methodology,” without revealing much about it.
Its founder and chief executive is Andrei Roman, who earned a doctorate in government at Harvard University. Roman took to X, formerly Twitter, in the election’s aftermath to post a chart that touted AtlasIntel as “the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election.”
It was a burst of pollster braggadocio reminiscent of a kind that has emerged periodically since the 1940s. That was when polling pioneer George Gallup placed two-page advertising spreads in the journalism trade publication “Editor & Publisher” to assert the accuracy of his polls in presidential elections.
Underestimating Trump’s support again
A significant question facing pollsters this year – their great known unknown – was whether modifications made to sampling techniques would allow them to avoid underestimating Trump’s support, as they had in 2016 and 2020.
Misjudging Trump’s backing is a nagging problem for pollsters. The results of the 2024 election indicate that the shortcoming persists. By margins ranging from 0.9 points to 2.7 points, polls overall understated Trump’s support in the seven swing states, for example.
Some polls misjudged Trump’s backing by even greater margins. CNN, for example, underestimated Trump’s vote by 4.3 points in North Carolina, by more than 6 points in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona.
Results that misfire in the same direction suggest that adjustments to sampling methodologies were inadequate or ineffective for pollsters in seeking to reach Trump backers of all stripes.
W. Joseph Campbell, Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Economy
6 Wild Truths About America’s 2025 Spending Habits: Fetch Reveals Surprising Consumer Trends
The Fetch Finds Report reveals that in 2025, Americans balanced hard work with self-care, reflecting a mix of discipline and indulgence. Notable trends included a resurgence in meat sales, increased dining out, a focus on organization, and a rise in comfort-related purchases.
The Fetch Finds Report reveals a year of hustle, comfort, and delightfully chaotic shopping carts
Americans in 2025 were a study in contradictions. We hit the gym but also hit the couch. We decluttered our homes while filling our carts. We powered through demanding days with energy gels and powered down with weighted blankets and candles.
That’s the picture painted by Fetch’s first-ever full-year Fetch Finds Report, which analyzed more than $179 billion in consumer transactions. With 12 million receipts submitted daily, the data tells a story that’s equal parts discipline and indulgence—a snapshot of a nation trying to balance the hustle with some much-needed comfort.
6 Wild Truths About America’s 2025 Spending Habits: Fetch Reveals Surprising Consumer Trends
The Six Spending Surprises of 2025
1. The Meatless Revolution Has Expired
Remember when plant-based everything was the future? In 2025, Americans said “thanks, but no thanks” and brought meat back to the table. Fresh beef sales jumped 13%, pork climbed 12%, while refrigerated plant-based alternatives dropped 11%. Despite rising grocery costs, consumers chose the real deal over the meatless alternatives.
2. America’s Eating Out—and Sushi’s on a Roll
Even with tighter budgets, dining out surged. And the big winner? Sushi, with a massive 45.6% increase in trip growth. Mexican restaurants saw a respectable 13.9% bump, and pizza grew 6.7%. But sushi absolutely dominated the dining-out conversation this year.
3. Endurance Nutrition Takes a Victory Lap
Energy chews and gels jumped 27.4% in 2025. Whether Americans were actually running marathons or just trying to survive Monday morning meetings, endurance nutrition became a go-to for powering through demanding days.
4. The Great American Declutter Hit Overdrive
Self-care became shelf-care. Household storage bags surged 55.8%, charging valets climbed 37%, and cleaning gloves rose 13.4%. Getting organized wasn’t just about tidiness—it became an act of wellness. A clean space, a clear mind.
5. Protein Moved into the Pantry
Protein isn’t just for gym bros anymore. Everyday staples got a protein makeover:
- Protein-labeled breakfast cereals: +69.8%
- Protein granola: +45.9%
- Protein dry pasta: +35.4%
Consumers wanted their regular foods to work harder, turning breakfast and dinner into opportunities to fuel up.
6. America Powered Down and Got Comfortable
Comfort became the ultimate status symbol. Loungewear sales soared 218%, weighted blankets climbed 45%, and candles rose 20%. After all that hustle, Americans made winding down a priority—and they weren’t shy about investing in it.
What This Tells Us
The Fetch Finds Report captures something real about 2025: Americans were navigating a shifting economy with a mix of practicality and self-care. We pushed hard during the day and gave ourselves permission to relax at night. We organized our homes, fueled our bodies with protein, and treated ourselves to sushi dinners and cozy nights in.
“Fetch sees what others can’t: how people actually spend based on billions of purchases,” said Jacob Grocholski, Vice President of Analytics at Fetch. “This year, we saw a chaotic mix of discipline and indulgence that defined how people navigated 2025.”
About the Data
The findings come from Fetch, America’s Rewards App, which captures billions of spending transactions annually using AI and machine learning. With more than 6 million five-star reviews and users submitting 12 million receipts daily, Fetch has unmatched visibility into what consumers actually buy—at the item level, across every channel and retailer.
Want the full breakdown? Read the complete Fetch Finds Report for all the details on America’s 2025 spending habits.
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actors & performers
T.K. Carter, The Thing and Punky Brewster Actor, Dies at 69
Actor T.K. Carter, known for The Thing and Punky Brewster, has died at age 69. A look at his career and lasting legacy in film and television.
T.K. Carter in Punky Brewster (1984) Image: IMDB
Veteran actor T.K. Carter, best known for his roles in The Thing and the popular 1980s television series Punky Brewster, has died at the age of 69.
Authorities confirmed Carter was found unresponsive at his home in Duarte, California. No foul play is suspected, and an official cause of death has not yet been released.
A Career Spanning Decades
Born Thomas Kent Carter, T.K. Carter built a career in film and television that spanned more than four decades. He became a cult favorite portraying Nauls in John Carpenter’s 1982 horror classic The Thing, a film that continues to influence the genre today.
Television audiences widely remember Carter for his role as Mike Fulton on Punky Brewster, where his comedic timing and grounded performances helped make the show a lasting favorite of the era.
Film and Television Legacy
In addition to his best-known roles, Carter appeared in films such as Runaway Train, Ski Patrol, and Space Jam. His television work included guest appearances on a wide range of series throughout the 1980s, 1990s, and beyond.
Known within the industry as a reliable and versatile performer, Carter often brought authenticity and warmth to supporting roles that left a lasting impression, even in brief appearances.
Remembering T.K. Carter
As news of his passing spreads, fans and colleagues alike are reflecting on T.K. Carter’s contributions to film and television. While he may not have always been the leading name on the marquee, his work helped shape stories that continue to be watched and appreciated by new generations.
T.K. Carter is remembered for his enduring performances, professional dedication, and the quiet but meaningful legacy he leaves behind.
Related Coverage
- Los Angeles Times: Actor T.K. Carter Dies at 69
- People Magazine: T.K. Carter, ‘The Thing’ and ‘Punky Brewster’ Actor, Dead at 69
- Entertainment Weekly: T.K. Carter, ‘Punky Brewster’ and ‘The Thing’ Actor, Dies
- ABC News: Veteran Actor T.K. Carter Dies at 69
Stay with STM Daily News for updates to this developing story and more independent coverage of entertainment, history, and culture. Visit www.stmdailynews.com for the latest.
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News
Gregory Outreach Services Expands Food Access with Addition of Third Refrigerated Van
Gregory Outreach Services expands its mission to fight food insecurity with the addition of a third refrigerated van, doubling food access for low-income seniors and veterans in Phoenix.
Last Updated on January 8, 2026 by Daily News Staff
Gregory Outreach Services’ newest refrigerated delivery van expands food access for low-income seniors and veterans across Phoenix.
Phoenix, AZ — Gregory Outreach Services has taken a major step forward in its mission to fight food insecurity with the addition of a third refrigerated delivery van, significantly expanding its capacity to serve low-income seniors and veterans across the Phoenix area.
The new refrigerated van was made possible through the support of a generous anonymous donor. The expansion is further strengthened by the continued generosity of the BHHS Legacy Foundation, who donated fresh produce to support the organization’s growing distribution efforts.
As rising food costs and inflation continue to place pressure on individuals living on fixed incomes, the need for reliable access to nutritious food has never been greater. This latest addition to the organization’s mobile fleet allows Gregory Outreach Services to double the number of individuals served, while maintaining strict food safety and quality standards.
“As the cost of living continues to rise, more seniors and veterans are struggling to afford nutritious food,” said Diana Gregory, Founder and CEO of Gregory Outreach Services. “This van allows us to bridge a widening gap for individuals living on fixed incomes, many of whom face mobility challenges and limited access to fresh food options.”
Meeting a Growing Community Need
Gregory Outreach Services works directly with seniors and veterans who are disproportionately affected by inflation, medical expenses, and transportation barriers. For many, simply reaching a grocery store can be a challenge. Refrigerated vehicles are essential to ensuring that fresh fruits and vegetables arrive safely and consistently at senior housing communities, veteran shelters, and community distribution sites.
“This third van complements the two already in operation and represents a critical milestone in our growth,” Gregory added. “We are deeply grateful to our anonymous donor for investing in our mission, and to BHHS Legacy Foundation’s Board of Directors and its CEO, Jerry Wissink for Legacy’s generosity in donating fresh produce. Together, this support allows us to scale our impact and respond to the increasing needs of our community.”
Expanding Impact While Preserving Dignity
With an expanded fleet and increased food supply, Gregory Outreach Services is better positioned to address food insecurity, promote healthier outcomes, and serve seniors and veterans with dignity, respect, and care. The organization’s mobile delivery model ensures help reaches those who need it most — directly and reliably.
About Gregory Outreach Services
Gregory Outreach Services is a nonprofit organization dedicated to improving health outcomes for low-income seniors and veterans through mobile produce delivery, nutrition education, and community-based wellness programs. By bringing fresh food directly to those most in need, the organization works to reduce food insecurity and strengthen community wellness.
For more information, visit dianagregory.com.
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