News
Deporting millions of immigrants would shock the US economy, increasing housing, food and other prices
In 2025, the Trump administration plans mass deportations, with significant economic risks, including rising food and housing costs, due to reliance on immigrant workers in key industries.

Francisco I. Pedraza, Arizona State University; Jason L. Morín, California State University, Northridge, and Loren Collingwood, University of New Mexico
One of President Donald Trump’s major promises during the 2024 presidential campaign was to launch mass deportations of immigrants living in the U.S. without legal authorization.
The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has said that, since January 2025, it is detaining and planning to deport 600 to 1,100 immigrants a day. That marks an increase from the average 282 immigration arrests that happened each day in September 2024 under the Biden administration.
The current trend would place the Trump administration on track to apprehend 25,000 immigrants in Trump’s first month in office. On an annual basis, this is about 300,000 – far from the “millions and millions” of immigrants Trump promised to deport.
A lack of funding, immigration officers, immigration detention centers and other resources has reportedly impeded the administration’s deportation work.
The Trump administration is seeking US$175 billion from Congress to use for the next four years on immigration enforcement, Axios reported on Feb. 11, 2025.
If Trump does make good on his promise of mass deportations, our research shows that removing millions of immigrants would be costly for everyone in the U.S., including American citizens and businesses.
Food costs will increase
One important factor is that mass deportations would weaken key industries in the U.S. that rely on immigrant workers, including those living in the U.S. illegally.
Overall, immigrants without legal authorization make up about 5% of the total U.S. workforce.
But that overall percentage doesn’t reflect these immigrants’ concentrated presence within various industries. Approximately half of U.S. farmworkers are living in the country without legal authorization, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Some of these immigrant farmworkers are skilled supervisors who make decisions about planting and harvesting. Others know how to use and maintain tractors, loaders, diggers, rakers, fertilizer sprayers, irrigation systems, and other machines crucial to farm operations.
If those workers were to be suddenly removed from the country, Americans would see an increase in food costs, including what they spend on groceries and at restaurants.
With fewer available workers to pick fruits and vegetables and prepare the food for shipment and distribution, the domestic production of food could decrease, leading to higher costs and more imports.
National estimates of the restaurant and food preparation workforce, meanwhile, indicate that between 10% and 15% of those workers are immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.
Past state-level immigration enforcement policies offer an idea of what could happen at the national level if Trump were to carry out widespread deportations.
For example, a 2011 Alabama law called HB-56 directed local police officers to investigate the immigration status of drivers stopped for speeding. It also prohibited landlords from renting properties to immigrants who do not have legal authorization to work or live in the country. That law and its resulting effects prompted some Alabama-based immigrant workers to leave the state following workplace raids.
Their departure wound up costing the state an estimated $2.3 billion to $10.8 billion loss in Alabama’s annual gross domestic product due to the loss of workers and economic output.
Other industries that rely on immigrants
Part of the challenge of mass deportations for industries like construction, nearly a quarter of whose workers are living without legal authorization, is that their workforce is highly skilled and not easily replaced. Immigrant workers are particularly involved in home construction and specialize in such tasks as ceiling and flooring installation as well as roofing and drywall work.
Fewer available workers would mean slower home construction, which in turn would make housing more expensive, further compounding existing problems of housing supply and affordability.
Shocks from deportations would also slow commercial and public infrastructure construction. Six construction workers, for example, died in April 2024 in the sudden collapse of the Baltimore Key Bridge in Maryland. All of them were Latino immigrants living in the U.S. without legal documentation.
Examining the arguments
Trump administration officials and other politicians have argued that deporting large numbers of immigrants would help the country save money, since fewer people will use federal and state funds by attending public schools or receiving temporary shelter.
Trump said in November 2024 that there is “no price tag” for large-scale deportations.
“It’s not a question of price tag,” Trump said. “We have no choice. When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries, and now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here,” Trump told NBC News.
Trump and his supporters also argue that deporting immigrants would mean more jobs for American workers.
But there is compelling evidence to the contrary.
First, immigrants are filling labor shortages and doing jobs that many Americans don’t want to do, ones that might be unsafe or poorly paid.
Even if Americans were willing to do those jobs, there simply aren’t enough Americans in the workforce to fill existing labor vacuums, let alone an enlarged one following deportations.
Second, for employers, having fewer workers in the country translates into higher wages, which in turn means less capital to adapt and grow. For businesses based on consumer debt – think mortgages, car loans and credit cards – deportations would disrupt the financial sector by removing responsible borrowers who make consistent payments.
Third, immigrants living without legal documentation in the U.S. pay more than $96 billion in federal, state and local taxes per year and consume fewer public benefits than citizens.
Immigrants without legal authorization are not eligible for Social Security benefits and can’t enroll in Medicare or many other safety net programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
The bottom line
In other words, people who are living and working in the U.S. without legal authorization are helping to pay, through taxes, the costs of caring for Americans as they age and begin to draw on the nation’s retirement and health care programs.
The burden from recent inflation notwithstanding, an economy supported by immigrants living illegally in the U.S. protects Americans.
The U.S. would be unable to dodge the economic shocks and high costs that mass deportations would bring about.
Francisco I. Pedraza, Professor of political scinece, Arizona State University; Jason L. Morín, Professor of Political Science, California State University, Northridge, and Loren Collingwood, Associate Professor of political science, University of New Mexico
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
health and wellness
Zepbound Linked to Lower Healthcare Costs in Adults 55+ With Obesity, Real-World Study Suggests

A new real-world study of adults over age 55 with overweight or obesity found that sustained use of Zepbound (tirzepatide) for weight management was associated with lower healthcare costs over time compared with similar adults who were not treated. Eli Lilly and Company said the findings were driven in part by lower rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits, and were published in Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism.
What the study found
According to Lilly, researchers estimated healthcare cost differences over time (excluding the cost of Zepbound itself) using two established analytic methods. Across both approaches, monthly healthcare costs were lower, on average, among older adults who stayed on Zepbound.
Key estimates reported in the release include:
- At six months: costs were up to 15% lower (up to $181 per patient, per month).
- At 12 months: the estimated difference widened to as much as $607 per patient, per month, reflecting up to 38% lower costs than those not treated (estimates varied by model).
In the primary analysis, adults over 55 treated with Zepbound had lower rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits across every follow-up period, along with numerically higher rates of routine outpatient and office visitsa pattern the company said was consistent with greater engagement in routine care.
Why Medicare is part of the conversation
Lilly said the cost findings may be relevant for older adults, including those in Medicares GLP-1 Bridge program. The company noted that beginning at six months, estimated healthcare savings nearly covered the programs monthly treatment cost of $195 per patient, per month, and by 12 months the estimated savings exceeded the reported monthly treatment cost.
Its important to note the release also emphasizes a limitation: claims data do not capture Zepbounds net price, and the study excluded the cost of Zepbound from total treatment costs. That means the reported differences reflect potential savings elsewhere in care that could offset treatment costs, not the full net cost impact.
Who was included in the analysis
The retrospective observational cohort study used Komodos Healthcare Map, a database of de-identified claims data from more than 330 million individuals enrolled in U.S. healthcare plans. The analysis included 15,843 adults over age 55 (mean age 64.5) with obesity or overweight plus at least one obesity-related complication who initiated Zepbound between November 2023 and September 2025. Each Zepbound user was matched 1:1 with a control participant who met the same eligibility criteria but did not initiate GLP-1 or GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist medication.
What Zepbound is
Zepbound (tirzepatide) is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist indicated for adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have at least one weight-related medical problem, to lose weight and keep it off. Lilly also noted Zepbound is FDA-approved to treat adults with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and obesity, and should be used alongside a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity.
Safety summary (high level)
The release includes an indications and safety summary with warnings. Among other risks, Lilly notes Zepbound carries a warning about thyroid tumors, including thyroid cancer, and may cause serious side effects such as severe stomach problems, dehydration leading to kidney problems, gallbladder problems, pancreatitis, serious allergic reactions, and low blood sugar (especially when used with certain diabetes medicines). Patients should talk with a healthcare provider about risks and whether the medication is appropriate for them.
Related Links
- Zepbound (official product site): https://zepbound.lilly.com/
- Lilly newsroom: https://www.lilly.com/news
- Journal page (publisher hub): https://dom-pubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14631326
- Medicare (official): https://www.medicare.gov/
- FDA MedWatch (side effect reporting): https://www.fda.gov/medwatch
Source
- PRNewswire / Eli Lilly and Company press release (Aug. 26, 2026): Zepbound linked to lower healthcare costs in adults over age 55 with obesity according to a real-world study
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Economy
U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips as Americans Grow More Cautious About the Future
U.S. consumer confidence edged lower in August as Americans became more pessimistic about jobs, income and business conditions over the next six months, despite improved views of the current economy.
NEW YORK — U.S. consumer confidence edged lower in August as Americans expressed greater concern about future business conditions, jobs and household income, even as their assessment of the current economy improved.
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July.
The relatively small decline, however, masks a widening gap between how consumers view conditions today and what they expect in the months ahead.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, climbed 6.8 points to 121.2, reversing three consecutive months of declines.
Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook for income, business and employment conditions, dropped 5.8 points to 68.2.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in the organization’s Aug. 25 release.
Jobs Look Better Today — But Consumers Worry About Tomorrow
Americans’ perceptions of the current labor market improved considerably during August. About 27% said jobs were plentiful, up from 24.4% in July, while 19.5% said jobs were hard to get, down from 21.7%.
The outlook for the next six months was considerably weaker.
Only 14.6% expected more jobs to become available, compared with 16.4% in July. At the same time, 26.1% expected fewer jobs.
Consumers were also less optimistic about their incomes. About 17.6% expected their income to increase, down from 19.5% in July, while 13.8% expected their income to decline.
Prices Remain on Consumers’ Minds
Inflation continues to influence how Americans feel about the economy. According to The Conference Board, consumers’ written responses frequently mentioned prices, oil and gasoline, food and groceries, trade, jobs, and war or conflict.
Average and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased slightly.
Interest rates remain another concern. More than six in 10 consumers — 61.3% — expected interest rates to rise over the next year, although that was slightly lower than the 62% recorded in July.
Consumers Are Still Planning to Spend
The softer outlook hasn’t eliminated Americans’ willingness to make purchases.
Auto-buying expectations remained strong on a six-month moving-average basis, while homebuying expectations declined slightly in August but remained on a longer-term upward trend after hitting decade lows in early 2024.
Restaurants, bars and takeout; utilities; and streaming, internet and mobile services ranked among consumers’ leading planned service expenses.
Consumers were less enthusiastic about discretionary activities including movies, personal-travel hotels, airfare, amusement parks, museums and historical sites.
Why It Matters
The August numbers paint a mixed picture of the American consumer.
People are seeing some improvement in the economy they are experiencing today, particularly in the labor market. But their expectations for the next six months are becoming noticeably more cautious.
That divide matters because consumer spending represents a major part of U.S. economic activity. If concerns about employment, inflation and household income begin translating into reduced spending, weakening confidence could eventually become more significant for the broader economy.
For now, the August survey suggests Americans haven’t stopped spending — but they’re increasingly keeping an eye on what may be coming next.
The preliminary August Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted online for The Conference Board by Toluna. The survey period was Aug. 3–16, 2026.
Source: The Conference Board, August 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey®, released Aug. 25, 2026.
STM Daily News Economy News Brief
Sources
- The Conference Board — U.S. Consumer Confidence, August 2026 — Primary source for the August Consumer Confidence Index, Present Situation Index and Expectations Index.
- The Conference Board — Consumer Confidence Survey & Data — Consumer confidence survey information, methodology and release schedule.
Related Economic Data
- Bureau of Economic Analysis — Consumer Spending — Official U.S. data tracking personal consumption expenditures. Consumer spending increased 0.2% in July 2026.
- BEA — Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 — Tracks household income, disposable income, consumer spending and saving.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index — Official inflation data. The July 2026 CPI was up 3.4% from a year earlier; August CPI is scheduled for release September 11.
- Federal Reserve — Consumer Credit — Federal Reserve data covering revolving and nonrevolving consumer credit.
Lifestyle
California and Minnesota Face $1B Medicaid Funding Hold
The Trump administration is withholding more than $1 billion in Medicaid funding from California and Minnesota over disputed medical claims. A social-policy historian examines how concerns about fraud have historically been used to justify funding cuts and undermine public confidence in Medicaid.

Ben Zdencanovic, University of Cambridge
California and Minnesota Face $1B Medicaid Funding Hold
The Trump administration announced on July 21, 2026, that it’s withholding US$867 million in federal healthcare funding for California and $200 million for Minnesota – a total of more than $1 billion.
Federal officials said the two states had failed to provide sufficient evidence that a number of disputed medical claims were legitimate. These include bills for in-home care and other services covered by the two states’ Medicaid programs for low-income residents.
Medicaid administrators say the funds can be recovered if the states supply the requested documentation. But the action is highly unusual: Typically, Medicaid officials partner with states to conduct an audit when they suspect fraud, a careful process that often takes years.
It’s the second time in 2026 that the Trump administration has withheld or deferred federal Medicaid funds for several states, including California and Minnesota, because of alleged fraud and abuse. The Democratic governors of those states have called the decision a politically motivated attack on their constituents.
I’m a historian of social policy who led the first comprehensive historical overview of Medi-Cal, California’s statewide Medicaid system. I’ve found that U.S. leaders have long used the language of fraud and abuse to blur the line between correcting very real failures within Medicaid and – as I believe the Trump administration is currently doing – discrediting and defunding the program itself.
Slashing the safety net
The Medicaid restrictions are part of the Trump administration’s overall efforts to slash federal funding for the safety net.
The large tax-and-spending bill that Trump signed into law in July 2025 as the cornerstone of his second-term agenda pared eligibility for Medicaid by introducing work requirements for some adults. It is cutting close to $1 trillion in federal spending on the program over the next decade.
Researchers estimate that almost 12 million people, on top of the estimated 28 million without health insurance in 2025, could become uninsured by 2034 due to these changes. By mid-2026, more than 3 million people had already lost their insurance coverage due to Republican changes to the Affordable Care Act.
‘Padlocking’ the ‘cookie jar’
In February 2026, Vice President JD Vance, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS, announced a new anti-fraud initiative called Comprehensive Regulations to Uncover Suspicious Healthcare.
Also known by its rather unsubtle acronym, CRUSH, this initiative is taking unprecedented steps to withhold and defer funds in response to suspected fraud. “CMS is done trying to catch fraudsters with their hands in the cookie jar,” Oz said in announcing CRUSH’s formation. “Instead, we’re padlocking the jar and letting them starve.”
To be sure, Medicaid fraud, waste and abuse – such as providers billing Medicaid for services that are unnecessary or never rendered – are very real problems that cost taxpayers billions of dollars annually. They do divert funds from the low-income and disabled Americans enrolled in the program.
But the Trump administration’s latest moves are part of a much broader history of weaponizing Medicaid fraud and abuse – both real and imagined. I see them as a politicized attempt to prove that Medicaid itself is wasteful, that state governments cannot be trusted to administer federal money, and that public benefits inevitably invite dishonesty.
Providing little oversight at the start
Medicaid was established, along with Medicare for older adults, in 1965 as part of President Lyndon B. Johnson’s “Great Society” reforms. Despite providing millions of Americans with health insurance coverage for the first time, these programs had few centralized mechanisms for the kind of federal oversight that could prevent and catch fraud and abuse.
And the sheer scale and complexity of the Medicaid system – joint federal-state funding, varying eligibility requirements, millions of enrollees and thousands of providers – created opportunities for questionable billing practices among providers.
The 1970s saw a number of highly publicized Medicaid scandals involving nursing homes, laboratories, pharmacies and so-called “Medicaid mills” – healthcare providers that sought to bill the government for large numbers of Medicaid patients for shoddy and often fraudulent care.
A series of high-profile congressional investigations spurred demand for stronger Medicaid oversight and enforcement. That led to the Medicare-Medicaid Anti-Fraud and Abuse Amendments of 1977, which established the national Medicaid Fraud Control Units program.
The state-run Medicaid Fraud Control Units received generous federal matching funds to investigate and prosecute fraud.
The most serious Medicaid fraud was generally committed by healthcare providers and contractors, not patients. Medicaid Fraud Control Units were principally responsible for investigating providers, while also prosecuting the abuse and neglect of patients whose care was billed to Medicaid.
At the same time, however, Medicaid was becoming entangled in a broader political debate over social spending, whether many Americans were becoming too dependent on government benefits, and the alleged use of benefits by people who should not have received them. In the 1980s and 1990s, widely circulated stories about Medicaid exposed fraud and malfeasance by providers.
But disproportionately, they also highlighted the comparatively few instances of fraud by people enrolled in the program, such as cases where they submitted false receipts for covered medically related travel or sold drugs they obtained through Medicaid for free or at low cost.
Using Medicare fraud to justify spending cuts
The distinction between Medicaid and cash assistance programs, such as the Aid to Families with Dependent Children “welfare” program, frequently disappeared in political rhetoric. False or exaggerated stories that portrayed African American single mothers living extravagantly while fraudulently claiming welfare benefits became potent symbols of supposed government failure.
While campaigning as a presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan seized on this trope of the “welfare queen” in his attacks on social spending.
By the mid-1990s, opposition to welfare programs had become increasingly bipartisan. Politicians in both parties often used tales of Medicaid fraud on the part of providers and recipients to justify tighter eligibility rules and spending cuts.
Federal oversight expanded further with the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, which created the Medicaid Integrity Program and strengthened federal oversight of state programs. The Affordable Care Act, the landmark healthcare legislation Congress passed in 2010, added new measures to screen providers and verify billing.
Concerns about Medicaid’s “integrity” became highly politicized in the debates surrounding the ACA. Critics of Medicaid expansion argued that increasing the number of people who could get health insurance through the program would increase fraud and improper enrollment. Supporters of expanding Medicaid to help more Americans gain health insurance maintained that anti-fraud rhetoric often disguised ideological opposition to the program’s expansion.
Blurring distinctions then and now
For the six decades that this program has helped millions of low-income Americans get healthcare, politicians have blurred the distinction between protecting Medicaid from abuse and using abuse to discredit Medicaid itself.
In my view, the Trump administration’s campaigns against California and Minnesota continue that pattern. It is using real weaknesses within Medicaid to advance much broader political arguments: that Democratic states cannot be trusted, that public benefits naturally invite abuse, and that withholding funds is itself a form of reform.
The result will no doubt be that fewer low-income Americans will be able to get the healthcare they need.
Ben Zdencanovic, Assistant Professor of U.S. History, University of Cambridge
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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