Economy
Even professional economists can’t escape political bias
Political Bias: A study led by economist Aeimit Lakdawala reveals that Republican-leaning economists tend to predict higher GDP growth during Republican presidencies, resulting in less accurate forecasts. This partisan bias, stemming from differing views on tax policy, highlights how even trained professionals can be influenced by ideology, particularly in uncertain economic data.
Aeimit Lakdawala, Wake Forest University
Even professional economists can’t escape political bias
Republican-leaning economists tend to predict stronger economic growth when a Republican is president than Democrats do – and because of this partisan optimism, their forecasts end up being less accurate.
I’m an economist, and my colleagues and I found this by analyzing nearly 40 years of responses to The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey. Unlike most such surveys, the Journal publishes each forecaster’s name, allowing us to link their predictions to their political affiliations.
The respondents were professional economists at major banks, consulting firms and universities whose forecasts help guide financial markets and business decisions. Out of more than 300 economists in our sample, we could identify the political affiliations of 122. We did this by looking at the forecasters’ political donation records, voter registration data and work histories with partisan groups.
The pattern was striking: Republican forecasters systematically predicted higher gross domestic product growth when their party controlled the presidency, representing roughly 10% to 15% of average growth rates during our study period.
When we examined forecast accuracy using real-time GDP data, Republican forecasters made larger errors when their preferred party held office. This suggests partisan optimism makes their professional judgment worse.
What makes this finding particularly notable is its asymmetry. The partisan gap emerged specifically during Republican presidencies. Under Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Republican and Democratic forecasters made virtually identical predictions. That wasn’t the case when George W. Bush, and later Donald Trump, occupied the White House.
Interestingly, this bias appears only in GDP forecasts. When we analyzed predictions for inflation, unemployment and interest rates, we found no systematic differences between Republican and Democratic forecasters.
That makes sense, because GDP forecasts are inherently more uncertain than other economic predictions. Professional forecasters tend to disagree more and make more mistakes when predicting GDP compared to inflation or unemployment rates. This creates opportunities for partisan ideologies to sneak in.
We traced the bias to different views about the effectiveness of tax policies. Using Google Trends data to measure when tax cuts were in the news, we found Republican forecasters become systematically more optimistic precisely when tax policy discussions heat up.
Why it matters
Previous research has found that most people have a strong partisan bias when they make economic predictions. Our work is the first to show that professional economists can also succumb to such influences – despite their training and market incentives to be accurate.
Their errors can come at a high price. Financial markets, policymakers and businesses rely on economists’ forecasts to make major decisions. When the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, when companies plan investments and when investors allocate portfolios, they often reference these professional consensus forecasts.
Our research challenges a common assumption in economics: that aggregating diverse expert forecasts eliminates individual biases and improves accuracy.
This doesn’t mean professional forecasters are incompetent or dishonest. These are highly trained economists with strong financial incentives for accuracy. Rather, our findings reveal how even experts with the best intentions can be unconsciously influenced by their own ideological beliefs – especially when dealing with inherently uncertain data.
What still isn’t known
Several important questions remain unanswered. It’s unclear how this bias might be reduced. Would making forecasters more aware of their political leanings help reduce the effect? Or would developing new forecasting methods that weight predictions based on historical accuracy during different political regimes improve consensus forecasts?
We’re also curious whether institutional factors matter. Might forecasters at institutions with explicit political diversity policies show less bias? How do international forecasters viewing the U.S. economy compare to domestic ones?
Finally, our research focuses on U.S. forecasters during a period of increasing political polarization. Whether similar patterns emerge in other countries with different political systems, or during less polarized times, remains an open question.
The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.
Aeimit Lakdawala, Associate Professor of Economics, Wake Forest University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.
Community
McDonald’s First Job Confessional Turns Career Stories Into Free Meal Opportunity
McDonald’s is launching First Job Confessional, a campaign inviting fans to share first job stories for a chance to receive a $15 gift card in select cities.
First Job Confessional
McDonald’s is putting first jobs in the spotlight with a new campaign that asks fans to share the real-world skills they gained early in their working lives. Launched on National Employee Appreciation Day, the brand’s First Job Confessional invites people to reflect on how those first roles helped shape their careers — and, in some cases, earn a free meal in the process.
The campaign is built around a simple idea: first jobs often teach lasting skills that deserve more recognition. Whether someone learned problem-solving while babysitting, communication during a lunch rush, or teamwork behind a counter, McDonald’s is framing those experiences as valuable career foundations. The company says those are the same kinds of skills employers continue to prioritize as workplace demands evolve.
How the First Job Confessional Works
In select cities, McDonald’s is setting up confessional booths designed to look like ordering kiosks. But instead of placing a meal order, participants can record a story about their first job and the skills they picked up along the way. Those who take part in person will have the opportunity to receive a $15 McDonald’s gift card, while supplies last.
Fans who cannot attend in person can still join online by posting their stories using #FirstJobConfessional. McDonald’s says selected videos may also be featured on its YouTube channel, extending the campaign beyond the live events.
External Related Links
- McDonald’s corporate article: McDonald’s is Asking Fans to Get Real About Their First Job Skills in Exchange for Free Meals
- McDonald’s 1 in 8: First Job Confessional
- McDonald’s 1 in 8 home page
- Marketing Dive coverage of the campaign
- Parade coverage of the First Job Confessional tour
Source Links
- Original PRNewswire press release from McDonald’s USA, LLC
- McDonald’s official corporate story
- McDonald’s 1 in 8 First Job Confessional page
- McDonald’s 1 in 8 official website
The Bridge is a section of the STM Daily News Blog meant for diversity, offering real news stories about bona fide community efforts to perpetuate a greater good. The purpose of The Bridge is to connect the divides that separate us, fostering understanding and empathy among different groups. By highlighting positive initiatives and inspirational actions, The Bridge aims to create a sense of unity and shared purpose. This section brings to light stories of individuals and organizations working tirelessly to promote inclusivity, equality, and mutual respect. Through these narratives, readers are encouraged to appreciate the richness of diverse perspectives and to participate actively in building stronger, more cohesive communities.
https://stmdailynews.com/the-bridge
News
Jay Leno Test Drives the Slate Truck as Startup Pushes Toward 2026 Launch
The affordable electric pickup from Slate Auto is gaining attention after Jay Leno test drove the prototype on Jay Leno’s Garage. Here’s the latest update on pricing, features, reservations, and the planned 2026 production launch.
Testing the Slate Truck
The affordable electric pickup from Slate Auto is continuing to gain attention as the startup moves closer to production. One of the most visible recent developments came when legendary car collector and TV host Jay Leno featured the truck on his popular YouTube series Jay Leno’s Garage.
The episode offered one of the most detailed looks yet at the upcoming Slate Truck, including a real-world test drive, design insights, and a closer look at the company’s philosophy behind building what could become one of America’s most affordable electric vehicles.
Watch the Jay Leno Test Drive
What Jay Leno Revealed About the Slate Truck
During the episode, Leno drove a pre-production prototype of the truck while engineers from Slate Auto explained the design approach.
Unlike many modern EVs packed with luxury features, the Slate Truck is intentionally simple.
Key highlights from the test drive include:
A Focus on Simplicity and Repairability
One of the most notable ideas behind the truck is that it is designed to be easy to repair and modify. Instead of relying on proprietary parts or complex electronics, the vehicle uses a more straightforward architecture that could allow owners or independent mechanics to work on it.
This approach contrasts with many EVs that require dealership service or specialized tools.
Modular Body Panels and Customization
The Slate Truck is built around a modular platform with removable exterior panels and optional accessory kits.
According to the company, owners will be able to customize the vehicle with:
Different body panel styles Accessory racks and cargo options A potential conversion kit that can transform the pickup into a small SUV
The idea is to allow the vehicle to evolve with the owner’s needs over time.
Minimalist Interior
Inside the prototype shown to Leno, the truck features a very basic interior layout.
Instead of a large infotainment system, the vehicle relies heavily on smartphone integration and simpler controls to keep costs down. This minimalist philosophy is part of the company’s effort to build a lower-cost EV.
Pricing and the “Affordable EV” Promise
When the truck was first revealed in 2025, Slate Auto suggested the vehicle could cost under $20,000 after incentives.
However, with changes to federal EV incentives and updated pricing expectations, analysts now estimate the truck will likely start around the mid-$20,000 range.
Even at that price, the vehicle could still become one of the most affordable electric trucks available in the United States.
Production Plans in Indiana
The company plans to manufacture the truck in Warsaw, Indiana, where a large former industrial facility is being converted into an EV factory.
Production targets include:
Production start: Late 2026 Early deliveries: Possibly 2027 Potential capacity: Up to about 150,000 vehicles per year once fully ramped
Strong early interest has also been reported, with more than 100,000 reservations placed for the truck shortly after its reveal.
A Different Kind of Electric Truck
The Slate Truck is entering a market where most electric pickups—such as the Ford F-150 Lightning and Rivian R1T—sit at much higher price points.
Rather than competing on luxury or performance, the Slate Truck is aiming to fill a different niche: a practical, customizable, and relatively affordable electric work vehicle.
If the company can deliver on its promises, it could open the door to a new category of budget-friendly EVs.
For now, the test drive on Jay Leno’s Garage provides one of the clearest glimpses yet at how the truck might perform in the real world.
Related Coverage on STM Daily News
- Automotive News and Innovation – STM Daily News
- Boom Supersonic and the Overture: The Return of Commercial Supersonic Travel
- The Evolution of Public Transportation in Los Angeles
- Technology News and Emerging Innovations
Further Reading and Information
- Slate Auto Official Website
- Watch the Slate Truck Test Drive on Jay Leno’s Garage
- Car and Driver: First Look at the Slate Truck
- TechCrunch: Slate Auto Leadership Changes Ahead of Launch
- InsideEVs: Latest Electric Vehicle News
Welcome to the Consumer Corner section of STM Daily News, your ultimate destination for savvy shopping and informed decision-making! Dive into a treasure trove of insights and reviews covering everything from the hottest toys that spark joy in your little ones to the latest electronic gadgets that simplify your life. Explore our comprehensive guides on stylish home furnishings, discover smart tips for buying a home or enhancing your living space with creative improvement ideas, and get the lowdown on the best cars through our detailed auto reviews. Whether you’re making a major purchase or simply seeking inspiration, the Consumer Corner is here to empower you every step of the way—unlock the keys to becoming a smarter consumer today!
https://stmdailynews.com/category/consumer-corner
Author
Economy
US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in January: What the Latest Conference Board Data Signals
In January 2026, U.S. consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level since 2014, as the Consumer Confidence Index fell by 9.7 points to 84.5. Concerns about inflation, employment, and economic stability led to decreased optimism across all demographics and a cautious approach to major purchases, signaling potential recession ahead.
US consumers started 2026 on a noticeably more cautious note. New data from The Conference Board shows its Consumer Confidence Index® fell sharply in January, wiping out a brief December rebound and pushing overall sentiment to its weakest level in more than a decade.
Confidence drops to the lowest level since 2014
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell 9.7 points in January to 84.5 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. The organization noted that December’s figure was revised up by 5.1 points, meaning what initially looked like a decline last month was actually a small uptick—before January’s slide reasserted the broader downward trend.
The cutoff for the preliminary January results was January 16, 2026.
Both “right now” and “what’s next” got worse
The decline wasn’t isolated to one part of the survey. Both consumers’ views of current conditions and their expectations for the months ahead weakened.
- Present Situation Index: down 9.9 points to 113.7
- Expectations Index: down 9.5 points to 65.1
That Expectations reading matters because it’s well below 80, a level The Conference Board says “usually signals a recession ahead.”
Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, summed it up bluntly: confidence “collapsed” in January, with all five components deteriorating. The overall Index hit its lowest level since May 2014.
What consumers are worried about (and what’s showing up in write-ins)
The Conference Board said consumers’ write-in responses continued to skew pessimistic. The biggest themes weren’t hard to guess:
- Prices and inflation
- Oil and gas prices
- Food and grocery prices
Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January. References to health/insuranceand war edged higher.
In other words: consumers aren’t just feeling uneasy—they’re pointing to specific pressure points that affect day-to-day costs and long-term stability.
Labor market perceptions softened
Consumers’ views of employment conditions weakened, with fewer respondents saying jobs are plentiful and more saying jobs are hard to get.
- 23.9% said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 27.5% in December
- 20.8% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 19.1%
That shift matters because consumer confidence often follows the labor market. When people feel less secure about job availability, they tend to pull back on big purchases and discretionary spending.
Expectations for business conditions and jobs turned more negative
Looking six months out, pessimism increased:
- 15.6% expected business conditions to improve (down from 18.7%)
- 22.9% expected business conditions to worsen (up from 21.3%)
On jobs:
- 13.9% expected more jobs to be available (down from 17.4%)
- 28.5% anticipated fewer jobs (up from 26.0%)
Income expectations cooled too:
- 15.7% expected incomes to increase (down from 18.8%)
- 12.6% expected incomes to decline (down slightly from 13.0%)
So while fewer people expected their income to fall, the bigger story is that optimism about income growth faded.
Who’s feeling it most: age, income, and politics
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence dipped across:
- All age groups (though under 35 remained more confident than older consumers)
- All generations (with Gen Z still the most optimistic)
- All income brackets (with those earning under $15K the least optimistic)
- All political affiliations (with the sharpest decline among Independents)
This broad-based decline suggests the shift isn’t confined to one demographic pocket—it’s spreading.
Big-ticket buying plans: more “maybe,” less “yes”
The survey also pointed to increased caution around major purchases.
Consumers saying “yes” to buying big-ticket items declined in January, while “maybe” responses rose and “no” edged higher.
- Auto buying plans were flat overall, though expectations for new cars continued to falter and plans to buy used cars climbed.
- Homebuying expectations continued to retreat.
- Plans to purchase appliances, furniture, and TVs decreased.
- Electronics purchase intentions dipped in most categories—except smartphones, which continued trending upward on a six-month moving average basis.
Services spending softened—but restaurants and travel stayed interesting
Planned spending on services over the next six months weakened in January, with fewer consumers saying “yes” and more shifting into “maybe.”
Still, a few categories stood out:
- Restaurants, bars, and take-out remained the top planned services spending category and continued to rise.
- Consumers also intended to spend more on hotels/motels for personal travel, airfare/trains, and motor vehicle services.
The Conference Board noted this was surprising given the plunge in vacation plans—especially for domestic travel—also recorded in the survey.
What to watch next
January’s report paints a clear picture: consumers are feeling squeezed by costs, less confident about the labor market, and more hesitant about major purchases. The Expectations Index dropping deeper below the “recession signal” threshold will likely keep economists, businesses, and policymakers watching the next few releases closely.
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month.
Source: The Conference Board, January 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey® (PRNewswire release, Jan. 27, 2026).
