Economy
Trump’s ‘golden age’ economic message undercut by his desire for much lower interest rates – which typically signal a weak jobs market
Joshua Stillwagon, Babson College
President Donald Trump seems to want to have it both ways on the U.S. economy.
On the one hand, he recently said the economy is in its “golden age” and referred to the U.S. as the “hottest country anywhere in the world.”
Yet at the same time, he has outright demanded that the Federal Reserve sharply slash interest rates to fuel economic activity. And his recently handpicked governor, Stephen Miran, has led the charge in pushing for a bigger cut than preferred by his new colleagues at the Fed.
When an economy is strong, central banks typically don’t cut interest rates and may even raise them to avoid spurring inflation. And so to support his argument for large cuts, Miran has played up “downside risks” to the economy and a weakening labor market, contrasting with Trump’s talk of a “golden age.”
Trump and Miran also seem to be ignoring the problem of inflation, which the president has said “has been defeated” and Miran considers close enough to the Fed’s target of 2%. Yet, inflation remains high and has been picking back up in recent months – one of the core reasons the Fed has taken a gradual approach to lowering interest rates.
I’m a macroeconomist, which means I study big-picture factors affecting an economy, such as interest rates.
It’s well known that lower rates spur faster growth, and of course all presidents want a stronger economy on their watch. But the Fed’s job when it sets interest rates is to deal with whatever reality the data shows – and make decisions accordingly.
Is the economy hot or not?
In the simplest terms, the Fed raises interest rates when the economy is “hot,” or inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, and lowers them when there are concerns about unemployment.
At its most recent meeting, in September, the Fed lowered rates a quarter of a point, citing slowing jobs growth, and increased economic uncertainty. Trump nominee Miran was the only one of the 12 members of the Fed’s policy-setting committee to instead vote for a more aggressive half-point cut.
The only credible rationale for that large of an interest rate cut, in the face of still-high inflation, is by believing the labor market is incredibly weak. According to the Fed’s preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures index, inflation has been accelerating all summer and was 2.7% at the end of August, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
There’s no doubt jobs growth has slowed considerably in recent months, but enough to completely ignore the risk of driving inflation higher? At this point at least, the Fed doesn’t think so.
And if the economy were in fact running hot, as the president claims, the Fed would have little choice but to keep rates flat or raise them, especially given elevated inflation.
Risks of following political whims
This situation gets at the heart of why central bank independence matters.
Trump’s efforts to influence the Federal Reserve have not been subtle and break with Congress’ intention to insulate the Fed from political manipulation. Besides pressing for big rate cuts, he has tried to fire a member of the Board of Governors over questionable allegations and mused about removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The risks of following the wishes of a president in the face of what the data shows were starkly demonstrated in 2021, when Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fired the head of the country’s central bank. The central banker was pushing rates higher to tame inflation, which was at about 20%, but Erdogan demanded they be lowered. In response, Turkey’s lira plunged to record lows and inflation soared to over 70% in 2022.
Something similar could happen in the U.S. if Trump continues down the same path of meddling with the Fed. As a sign of how much Wall Street worries about this risk, a recent study estimated that if Trump followed through on his threat to fire Powell, the stock market could lose an estimated US$1 trillion as a result.
That’s because the Fed’s credibility rests on its ability to make decisions driven by economic evidence, not political expedience. That independence means policymakers must weigh data on inflation, jobs and growth rather than election cycles or partisan demands.
Justifying deeper rate cuts
Looking ahead to the Fed’s next meeting Oct. 28-29, policymakers face a delicate balancing act. With inflation still running above target and signs of slowing jobs growth, it needs to lower rates enough to prevent a downturn but not so low that inflation spirals out of control.
Traders are putting near-100% odds of two more quarter-point cuts this year, one on Oct. 29 and another in December. This would bring the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025, down from 4%-4.25% now.
Based on Miran’s own interest rate projections, he’s likely to again push for a larger cut of a half-point or more at both meetings, as he believes the Fed’s benchmark rate should be below 3% by the end of the year.
To me, as an economist, the only way a Fed acting independently could reasonably justify such a significant cut in rates in the next few months is if the unemployment rate begins rising steadily, with the economy clearly at risk of slipping into a recession.
Joshua Stillwagon, Associate Professor of Economics, Babson College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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News
Major Popeyes Franchisee Sailormen Files for Chapter 11 — What It Means for Restaurants and the Economy
Sailormen Inc., a major Popeyes franchisee operating 130+ locations in Florida and Georgia, filed for Chapter 11 on Jan. 15, 2026 amid rising costs and heavy debt. Many restaurants are expected to remain open as restructuring continues.
A major Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen franchise operator is heading to bankruptcy court — but the headline does notmean Popeyes corporate is filing, or that every restaurant involved is about to close.
Sailormen Inc., a Miami-based Popeyes franchisee that has operated in the system since 1987, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Jan. 15, 2026. The company operates more than 130 Popeyes locations across Florida and Georgia (some industry coverage puts the count at 136), making it one of the chain’s largest franchise groups in the region.
Franchisee filing, not a Popeyes corporate bankruptcy
This case involves Sailormen (the operator) — not Popeyes corporate and not parent company Restaurant Brands International.
In a message referenced in industry reporting, Popeyes leadership said Sailormen’s filing does not reflect the overall health of the Popeyes brand, and that a large majority of Sailormen’s restaurants are expected to remain open while the company restructures.
What pushed Sailormen into Chapter 11
Court-related summaries and industry coverage point to a familiar mix of pressures hitting restaurant operators:
- Inflation and higher operating costs (food, labor, and day-to-day expenses)
- Higher borrowing costs as interest rates climbed
- Liquidity strain, including reports of falling behind on rent and facing pressure from landlords and vendors
- Legal disputes, including vendor-related claims tied to unpaid balances
The failed store sale that worsened the situation
One key detail: Sailormen reportedly tried to sell 16 Georgia restaurants to stabilize finances. That deal fell through, and the company remained responsible for lease guarantees tied to those locations — a liability that can linger even if other stores are performing.
The debt and the lender pressure
Industry reporting describes Sailormen as carrying a heavy debt load — cited at about $130 million overall.
More detailed figures cited in coverage include:
- Over $112 million in unpaid principal loan balance
- Over $17 million in accrued interest and fees
Reporting also points to pressure from BMO (BMO Bank), described as Sailormen’s largest lender. In December 2025, BMO reportedly sought to appoint a receiver, a move that can displace management and take control of a company’s assets. Sailormen’s Chapter 11 filing allows the company to continue operating as a debtor-in-possession while it attempts to reorganize.
Why this matters for “Food” and “Our Economy”
This isn’t just a Popeyes story — it’s a snapshot of what happens when restaurant operators face higher costs, value-conscious consumers, and more expensive debt at the same time.
Chapter 11 is designed to reorganize a business, not automatically liquidate it. For customers, the near-term impact may be limited if most locations stay open.
STM Daily News will follow this story as it develops, including any updates on store operations, restructuring plans, and potential sales of locations.
Sources
- Restaurant Business: “A big Popeyes franchisee files for bankruptcy” https://restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/big-popeyes-franchisee-files-bankruptcy
- Restaurant Dive: “Large Popeyes franchisee files for Chapter 11” https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/popeyes-frachisee-sailormen-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy-protections/809854/
For more food business headlines and how they connect to the real economy, follow STM Daily News.
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Economy
6 Wild Truths About America’s 2025 Spending Habits: Fetch Reveals Surprising Consumer Trends
The Fetch Finds Report reveals that in 2025, Americans balanced hard work with self-care, reflecting a mix of discipline and indulgence. Notable trends included a resurgence in meat sales, increased dining out, a focus on organization, and a rise in comfort-related purchases.
The Fetch Finds Report reveals a year of hustle, comfort, and delightfully chaotic shopping carts
Americans in 2025 were a study in contradictions. We hit the gym but also hit the couch. We decluttered our homes while filling our carts. We powered through demanding days with energy gels and powered down with weighted blankets and candles.
That’s the picture painted by Fetch’s first-ever full-year Fetch Finds Report, which analyzed more than $179 billion in consumer transactions. With 12 million receipts submitted daily, the data tells a story that’s equal parts discipline and indulgence—a snapshot of a nation trying to balance the hustle with some much-needed comfort.
6 Wild Truths About America’s 2025 Spending Habits: Fetch Reveals Surprising Consumer Trends
The Six Spending Surprises of 2025
1. The Meatless Revolution Has Expired
Remember when plant-based everything was the future? In 2025, Americans said “thanks, but no thanks” and brought meat back to the table. Fresh beef sales jumped 13%, pork climbed 12%, while refrigerated plant-based alternatives dropped 11%. Despite rising grocery costs, consumers chose the real deal over the meatless alternatives.
2. America’s Eating Out—and Sushi’s on a Roll
Even with tighter budgets, dining out surged. And the big winner? Sushi, with a massive 45.6% increase in trip growth. Mexican restaurants saw a respectable 13.9% bump, and pizza grew 6.7%. But sushi absolutely dominated the dining-out conversation this year.
3. Endurance Nutrition Takes a Victory Lap
Energy chews and gels jumped 27.4% in 2025. Whether Americans were actually running marathons or just trying to survive Monday morning meetings, endurance nutrition became a go-to for powering through demanding days.
4. The Great American Declutter Hit Overdrive
Self-care became shelf-care. Household storage bags surged 55.8%, charging valets climbed 37%, and cleaning gloves rose 13.4%. Getting organized wasn’t just about tidiness—it became an act of wellness. A clean space, a clear mind.
5. Protein Moved into the Pantry
Protein isn’t just for gym bros anymore. Everyday staples got a protein makeover:
- Protein-labeled breakfast cereals: +69.8%
- Protein granola: +45.9%
- Protein dry pasta: +35.4%
Consumers wanted their regular foods to work harder, turning breakfast and dinner into opportunities to fuel up.
6. America Powered Down and Got Comfortable
Comfort became the ultimate status symbol. Loungewear sales soared 218%, weighted blankets climbed 45%, and candles rose 20%. After all that hustle, Americans made winding down a priority—and they weren’t shy about investing in it.
What This Tells Us
The Fetch Finds Report captures something real about 2025: Americans were navigating a shifting economy with a mix of practicality and self-care. We pushed hard during the day and gave ourselves permission to relax at night. We organized our homes, fueled our bodies with protein, and treated ourselves to sushi dinners and cozy nights in.
“Fetch sees what others can’t: how people actually spend based on billions of purchases,” said Jacob Grocholski, Vice President of Analytics at Fetch. “This year, we saw a chaotic mix of discipline and indulgence that defined how people navigated 2025.”
About the Data
The findings come from Fetch, America’s Rewards App, which captures billions of spending transactions annually using AI and machine learning. With more than 6 million five-star reviews and users submitting 12 million receipts daily, Fetch has unmatched visibility into what consumers actually buy—at the item level, across every channel and retailer.
Want the full breakdown? Read the complete Fetch Finds Report for all the details on America’s 2025 spending habits.
For the latest news, trends, and stories that matter, head over to STM Daily News. From entertainment and tech to community features and in-depth reporting, we’ve got you covered. Visit us at stmdailynews.com and stay in the know.
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Economy
How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Egg Market: Egg prices surged during the U.S. bird flu outbreak as laying hen inventories collapsed. Here’s how flock recovery is helping stabilize egg prices today.
How Bird Flu Upended the U.S. Egg Market — and Why Prices Are Finally Beginning to Stabilize
Few grocery items frustrated American consumers over the past two years quite like eggs. Once an inexpensive staple, egg prices surged to historic highs following a prolonged outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu. Today, however, prices appear to be stabilizing. Here’s how the crisis unfolded — and why relief is finally showing up at the checkout line.The Bird Flu Crisis and Its Impact on Egg Supply
Beginning in 2022, the United States experienced one of the most severe bird flu outbreaks in modern history. The virus spread rapidly through poultry farms, forcing producers to cull millions of birds to prevent further transmission. Egg-laying hens were hit especially hard, leading to a sharp drop in egg production nationwide. By 2024 and into early 2025, the cumulative losses totaled well over one hundred million birds. With fewer hens producing eggs, supply tightened dramatically, and prices soared. At the peak of the crisis, consumers in some regions saw egg prices climb above six dollars per dozen.Why Egg Prices Stayed High for So Long
Unlike other agricultural products, egg production cannot rebound quickly after a disruption. When laying hens are lost, they must be replaced with young birds known as pullets. These pullets require approximately four to six months to mature before they begin producing eggs. Even after farms were cleared to restock, producers faced additional challenges. Strict biosecurity measures, concerns about reinfection, and the logistical complexity of rebuilding flocks slowed the recovery process. As a result, egg supplies remained tight long after the initial outbreaks subsided.Laying Hen Inventory Recovery Takes Shape
By mid to late 2025, signs of recovery became more apparent. Producers gradually increased pullet placements, and national laying hen inventories began to grow. While the total number of hens had not yet returned to pre-outbreak levels, the upward trend marked an important turning point. This steady rebuilding of flocks meant more eggs entering the supply chain. Wholesale markets responded first, with prices easing as inventories improved. Retail prices soon followed, signaling that the worst of the supply shock was beginning to fade.Egg Prices Begin to Stabilize
As laying hen inventories recovered, egg prices moved away from their record highs. By late 2025 and into early 2026, prices at many grocery stores had fallen noticeably compared to peak levels. While costs remain somewhat higher than pre-pandemic norms, the extreme volatility seen during the height of the bird flu crisis has largely subsided. Additional factors also helped stabilize the market. Federal and state efforts to strengthen biosecurity, limited egg imports to supplement domestic supply, and improved disease monitoring all contributed to a more balanced egg market.What This Means for Consumers
For consumers, the stabilization of egg prices offers a welcome sense of normalcy. Shoppers are less likely to encounter sudden price spikes, and eggs are once again becoming a predictable part of grocery budgets. While prices may not return to the ultra-low levels seen years ago, the recovery of laying hen inventories suggests that the egg market is on firmer footing. Continued vigilance against future outbreaks will be critical, but for now, the outlook is far more stable than it was during the height of the bird flu crisis.Looking Ahead
The bird flu outbreak served as a reminder of how vulnerable food systems can be to disease disruptions. Thanks to gradual flock rebuilding and improved supply conditions, egg prices are stabilizing — a sign that recovery, while slow, is real. If current trends continue, consumers and producers alike may finally be moving past one of the most turbulent chapters in the modern egg market.Further Reading & Sources
- USDA – Avian Influenza Updates and Poultry Industry Impact
- USDA Economic Research Service – Egg Prices and Food Inflation Data
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Consumer Price Index (Egg Prices)
- Associated Press – Coverage of the U.S. Bird Flu Outbreak
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service – Egg Market and Wholesale Reports
- CDC – Avian Influenza Information and Monitorin
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