As we delve deeper into October, the recent employment data shines a spotlight on the remarkable resilience exhibited by the U.S. economy. The September jobs report, released by The Conference Board, has garnered significant attention, emphasizing a substantial addition of 254,000 jobs to the economy—the most significant surge since March. This impressive growth not only exceeds expectations but also highlights the underlying robustness of the labor market moving into the final quarter of 2024.

Breaking Down the Numbers

Initially, job growth from June to August seemed to be slowing, with monthly gains averaging 116,000. However, revisions have lifted this projection to an average of 140,000, before the substantial boost seen in September. As a result, the third quarter is closing with an average monthly payroll gain of 186,000. These upbeat figures underscore the idea that the Federal Reserve’s preemptive interest rate cut was well-timed, as risks that could slow the economy have yet to manifest.

Mitchell Barnes’ Expert Insight

Mitchell Barnes, an economist with The Conference Board, provides a detailed analysis of these trends. According to him, the robust job creation figures signal that the current economic landscape is more resilient than previously thought. “Despite potential headwinds, the labor market continues to thrive, supported by consistent income and spending growth,” Barnes notes. Such commentary from a seasoned economist offers reassurance that policymakers are equipped with data supporting the continuation of stable economic conditions.

Employment Landscape and Sector Shifts

The September report highlights notable growth within specific industries. Leisure and hospitality, healthcare, government, and construction have driven much of this year’s employment growth. These industries, previously hit hardest during the pandemic, are now successfully replenishing their workforce, underscoring a return to pre-pandemic staffing levels. Current job gains suggest near-full employment, with payrolls surpassing their February 2020 levels by around seven million.

Improved Job-finding Rates

Significantly, September showcases an improvement in job-finding rates as more than 300,000 workers who had been jobless for less than five weeks secured employment. This movement led to the unemployment rate dropping back to 4.1%, indicating an easing concern for a rapid rise in unemployment rates.

Moreover, the uptick in job openings to eight million, as seen in August’s JOLTS data, showcases growing demand, setting the stage for potential sustained growth moving forward.

Consumer Sentiment and Future Outlook

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey® suggests that while some present conditions have softened, they haven’t significantly deteriorated. However, the outlook remains positive with incumbent workers enjoying high real wages and considerable job security. Consequently, consumer spending remains robust, providing further momentum to the economy.

Mitchell Barnes anticipates that economic growth will revitalize as early as 2025, as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies continue to foster a conducive environment for development post-election. His analysis suggests that despite prevailing uncertainties, the current economic trajectory lacks the extended softness that many feared.

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Resisting the Slowdown Narrative

The narrative of an impending economic slowdown seems increasingly misplaced. The U.S. economy, armed with robust household finances and sustained business activity, is steering ahead confidently into 2025.

The Conference Board: Trusted Insight

As a global independent research association, The Conference Board continues to offer trusted insights into the economic landscape. With over a century of experience, it remains committed to exploring the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for economies worldwide.

In conclusion, September’s employment report not only underscores the resilience of the U.S. labor market but also fortifies confidence as we look forward to what’s ahead. As the economy edges closer to 2025, the emphasis remains on maintaining this momentum through informed policymaking and strategic investments in human capital.

Read the press release: September’s Booming Job Gains Underscore US Economy’s Resilience

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Anna Nagurney, UMass Amherst

A dockworkers strike that froze operations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports for 2½ days was paused on Oct. 3, 2024. The Conversation U.S. asked Anna Nagurney, a scholar of supply chains, to assess the extent of disruptions that likely occurred and how the swift return of 45,000 workers who had been on strike may stave off further problems down the road.

Why was the strike suspended?

Aided by intense pressure from senior Biden administration officials, the shipping companies, represented by the U.S. Maritime Alliance, significantly increased the raise they were offering the dockworkers to 62% from their previous offer of a 50% boost in pay. The International Longshoremen’s Association, the dockworkers’ union, was seeking a 77% raise, but it accepted the new offer, which will be phased in over six years.

The agreement labor leaders and management reached will suspend the strike until at least Jan. 15, 2025, allowing more time for additional collective bargaining and negotiations.

Talks over other contested conditions, including the adoption of more automation, will continue until then.

President Joe Biden applauded both sides. He thanked the union and management “for acting patriotically to reopen our ports and ensure the availability of critical supplies for Hurricane Helene recovery and rebuilding.”

How has this strike affected the economy?

About half of the products that the U.S. imports are handled by the ports that were paralyzed during this brief strike. About 1 million shipping containers arrive at these ports every month.

Imports include vast quantities of bananas and other fresh produce, coffee, pharmaceuticals, liquor, toys, apparel, furniture, machinery and vehicles. Exports include meats, commodities, machinery, chemicals, vehicles and vehicle parts.

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The strike’s impact was immediate. More than 50 ships laden with hundreds of thousands of containers created a logjam at East Coast ports. Major retailers, such as Walmart, Costco, Lowes and Home Depot, were among the companies stuck waiting for the release of their stranded cargo.

It may take two to three weeks to relieve this logjam. Prices for some products, including coffee, were already rising before the negotiators reached their breakthrough.

Workers are critical to the functioning of each link in supply chains. When the dockworkers were on strike, other workers, such as truckers, rail employees and warehouse workers, were concerned about being affected, as well as all the businesses that rely on them, such as restaurants.

Why is the new time frame significant?

Shipping tied to the holiday season typically runs from July through early November. Members of the National Retail Federation, the largest U.S. retail trade group, have already been dealing with significant supply disruptions due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. The attacks have forced shipping companies to take longer routes, delaying cargo delivery and increasing costs due to the need for more fuel and labor.

A prolonged dockworkers strike would put stress on the economy. According to J.P. Morgan, a lengthy dockworkers strike could have cost the U.S. economy US$5 billion per day.

The temporary agreement pushes the strike past the U.S. elections in November and the conclusion of the upcoming holiday season. That gives both sides a chance to return to the bargaining table to continue to negotiate and to reach an agreement on the issues that haven’t been resolved yet – notably the use of automation.

Having a shorter strike will reduce the risk of shortages of everything from mangos to Maseratis and the price increases that typically occur when products are scarce and in high demand.

What did the Biden administration do?

The Biden administration was eager for a settlement, especially with the ports serving as channels for recovery supplies after the massive damage seen in Florida, western North Carolina and other areas near the East Coast from Hurricane Helene.

Senior government officials made notable progress when they met with representatives of shipping companies before daybreak on Oct. 3 over Zoom.

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Julie Su, the acting labor secretary, had been working hard to help the two sides settle their differences. She emphasized over Zoom that she could get the International Longshoremen’s Association to the bargaining table to extend the contract. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also stayed in touch with labor and management, and used that Zoom meeting to tell the shipping companies that they would need to offer the dockworkers a higher wage.

White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients told the shipping companies on Zoom that they should make an offer to the union quickly so that the strike wouldn’t further exacerbate the effects of Hurricane Helene.

It seems clear to me that the pressure worked – helped, perhaps, by a bit of patriotism.

Anna Nagurney, Eugene M. Isenberg Chair in Integrative Studies, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

STM Daily News is a vibrant news blog dedicated to sharing the brighter side of human experiences. Emphasizing positive, uplifting stories, the site focuses on delivering inspiring, informative, and well-researched content. With a commitment to accurate, fair, and responsible journalism, STM Daily News aims to foster a community of readers passionate about positive change and engaged in meaningful conversations. Join the movement and explore stories that celebrate the positive impacts shaping our world.

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Alex Hoagland, University of Toronto and Michal Horný, UMass Amherst

Even though preventive care is supposed to be free by law for millions of Americans thanks to the Affordable Care Act, many don’t receive recommended preventive services, especially racial and ethnic minorities and other at-risk patient groups.

The Affordable Care Act exempted preventive services from patient cost-sharing for large chunks of the population. This means that if you receive preventive screening and have private insurance, including through the ACA Marketplace, there should be no copay at time of service, and you shouldn’t get a bill later on. Easy enough, right?

Wrong. Our team of health economists has shown that patients spend millions of dollars every year on unexpected bills for preventive care. The main reason for this is that no specific regulations were put in place to determine exactly which services should be exempted, or for whom, or how often. This omission has left many people on the hook to pay for valuable health care they thought would be free.

Now, in our recently published research in the journal JAMA Network Open, we’ve found that the burden of paying for what should be free preventive care disproportionately falls on some patient groups.

Inequitable claim denials

Looking at data from over 1.5 million patients, our study demonstrates that insurers deny preventive claims for patients from marginalized communities at higher rates than for those from majority groups.

For example, low-income patients were 43% more likely than high-income patients to have their claims denied. In addition, Asian, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black patients were each roughly twice as likely as non-Hispanic white patients to have claims denied.

Not only were these patients denied routine benefits, but they also saw large differences in rates of billing errors. For example, patients with a high school diploma or less experienced denials due to this kind of billing error almost twice as often than patients with college degrees. All of these services should have been covered by an insurer.

Research on preventive care access is commonly based only on claims data, which doesn’t typically have information on patient demographics. This limits a study’s ability to detect differences across patient groups. Our study, however, uses a combination of linked claims data, remittance data containing information on why claims were denied and whether they were resubmitted, and demographic data from self-reports, purchase transactions and voter registries. Together, this richer dataset allowed us to examine differences in denials based on race and ethnicity, education and income, including reasons why patients were denied care.

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Preventive care is essential

Equitable access to preventive health care is about more than just physicals, although those are important, too. Preventive health care includes key screenings for cancers, cardiovascular disease and diabetes, access to contraceptives, and mental health checkups, among other services. Ensuring that insurers provide equal coverage for these services for all patients is important to improve health outcomes and quality of life for everyone while reducing future health care costs.

Our results paint a picture of the kinds of hurdles patients face when they seek health screenings. Patients from underrepresented groups were not only more likely to be told their care wouldn’t be covered. They were also more likely to have their claims processed incorrectly, leading to more frequent denials and, ultimately, larger medical bills. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Uc2uG6LhFQQ?wmode=transparent&start=0 Few patients appeal claim denials, even though rejections may be unjustified.

Unexpected bills can affect both a patient’s current health and their future use of health care services. These hurdles can exacerbate an already tenuous trust in a fragmented health care system, making patients less likely to return for follow-up screenings.

Stacked coverage denials for patients who live with multiple marginalized identities or who are less able to advocate for themselves can further entrench racial and socioeconomic inequities.

Ensuring equitable access

Our study paints a compelling picture of where different patients may face hurdles for getting preventive care, but more research is necessary to identify how to ensure equitable access.

As our study looked only at preventive services, we will also need to see how our findings generalize to other forms of health care. More research is also needed to understand how other vulnerable patient groups, such as LGBTQ+ patients or patients with multiple chronic conditions, fare when trying to access care.

Our team is currently studying how actual bills for care differ across patient groups and how patients respond when bills arrive. In our study, more than two-thirds of denied claims were never resubmitted to insurers, meaning that many billing errors go uncorrected at patients’ expense.

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Equitable policy on multiple fronts can help rectify the way preventive care is inconsistently and inequitably provided. These include uniform coverage of preventive care by insurers, standardized billing practices for physicians and improved means for patients to advocate for themselves. This can help ensure that everyone has appropriate access to lifesaving health care.

Alex Hoagland, Assistant Professor of Health Economics, University of Toronto and Michal Horný, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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