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Using machine learning to help monitor climate-induced hazards

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Study finds way to track hurricane landfalls, other hazards using satellite data

Newswise — CHICAGO – Combining satellite technology with machine learning may allow scientists to better track and prepare for climate-induced natural hazards, according to research presented last month at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Over the last few decades, rising global temperatures have caused many natural phenomena like hurricanes, snowstorms, floods and wildfires to grow in intensity and frequency. 

While humans can’t prevent these disasters from occurring, the rapidly increasing number of satellites that orbit the Earth from space offers a greater opportunity to monitor their evolution, said C.K Shum, co-author of the study and a professor at the Byrd Polar Research Center and in earth sciences at The Ohio State University. He said that potentially allowing people in the area to make informed decisions could improve the effectiveness of local disaster response and management. 

“Predicting the future is a pretty difficult task, but by using remote sensing and machine learning, our research aims to help create a system that will be able to monitor these climate-induced hazards in a manner that enables a timely and informed disaster response,” said Shum. 

Shum’s research uses geodesy — the science of measuring the planet’s size, shape and orientation in space — to study phenomena related to global climate change. 

Using geodetic data gathered from various space agency satellites, researchers conducted several case studies to test whether a mix of remote sensing and deep machine learning analytics could accurately monitor abrupt weather episodes, including floods, droughts and storm surges in some areas of the world. 

In one experiment, the team used these methods to determine if radar signals from Earth’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which were reflected over the ocean and received by GNSS receivers located at towns offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, could be used to track hurricane evolution by measuring rising sea levels after landfall. Between 2020 and 2021, the team studied how seven storms, such as Hurricane Hana and Hurricane Delta, affected coastal sea levels before they made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. By monitoring these complex changes, they found a positive correlation between higher sea levels and how intense the storm surges were.

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The data they used was collected by NASA and the German Aerospace Center’s Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, and its successor, GRACE Follow-On. Both satellites have been used to monitor changes in Earth’s mass over the past two decades, but so far, have only been able to view the planet from a little more than 400 miles up. But using deep machine learning analytics, Shum’s team was able to reduce this resolution to about 15 miles, effectively improving society’s ability to monitor natural hazards. 

“Taking advantage of deep machine learning means having to condition the algorithm to continuously learn from various data inputs to achieve the goal you want to accomplish,” Shum said. In this instance, satellites allowed researchers to quantify the path and evolution of two Category 4 Atlantic hurricane-induced storm surges during their landfalls over Texas and Louisiana, Hurricane Harvey in August 2017 and Hurricane Laura in August 2020, respectively.

Accurate measurements of these natural hazards could one day help improve hurricane forecasting, said Shum. But in the short term, Shum would like to see countries and organizations make their satellite data more readily available to scientists, as projects that rely on deep machine learning often need large amounts of wide-ranging data to help make accurate forecasts.   

“Many of these novel satellite techniques require time and effort to process massive amounts of accurate data,” said Shum. “If researchers have access to more resources, we’ll be able to potentially develop technologies to better prepare people to adapt, as well as allow disaster management agencies to improve their response to intense and frequent climate-induced natural hazards.”

Co-authors of the project were Yu Zhang, Yuanyuan Jia, Yihang Ding and Junyi Guo of Ohio State; Orhan Akyilmaz and Metehan Uz of Istanbul Technical University; and Kazim Atman of Queen Mary University of London. This work was supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK).

Source: Ohio State University

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Bird flu could be on the cusp of transmitting between humans − but there are ways to slow down viral evolution

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file 20250320 56 9y7zti.jpg?ixlib=rb 4.1
Workers who are in frequent contact with potentially sick animals are at high risk of bird flu infection. Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Ron Barrett, Macalester College Disease forecasts are like weather forecasts: We cannot predict the finer details of a particular outbreak or a particular storm, but we can often identify when these threats are emerging and prepare accordingly. The viruses that cause avian influenza are potential threats to global health. Recent animal outbreaks from a subtype called H5N1 have been especially troubling to scientists. Although human infections from H5N1 have been relatively rare, there have been a little more than 900 known cases globally since 2003 – nearly 50% of these cases have been fatal – a mortality rate about 20 times higher than that of the 1918 flu pandemic. If the worst of these rare infections ever became common among people, the results could be devastating. Approaching potential disease threats from an anthropological perspective, my colleagues and I recently published a book called “Emerging Infections: Three Epidemiological Transitions from Prehistory to the Present” to examine the ways human behaviors have shaped the evolution of infectious diseases, beginning with their first major emergence in the Neolithic period and continuing for 10,000 years to the present day. Viewed from this deep time perspective, it becomes evident that H5N1 is displaying a common pattern of stepwise invasion from animal to human populations. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 is making incremental evolutionary changes that could allow it to transmit between people. The periods between these evolutionary steps present opportunities to slow this process and possibly avert a global disaster.

Spillover and viral chatter

When a disease-causing pathogen such as a flu virus is already adapted to infect a particular animal species, it may eventually evolve the ability to infect a new species, such as humans, through a process called spillover. Spillover is a tricky enterprise. To be successful, the pathogen must have the right set of molecular “keys” compatible with the host’s molecular “locks” so it can break in and out of host cells and hijack their replication machinery. Because these locks often vary between species, the pathogen may have to try many different keys before it can infect an entirely new host species. For instance, the keys a virus successfully uses to infect chickens and ducks may not work on cattle and humans. And because new keys can be made only through random mutation, the odds of obtaining all the right ones are very slim. Given these evolutionary challenges, it is not surprising that pathogens often get stuck partway into the spillover process. A new variant of the pathogen might be transmissible from an animal only to a person who is either more susceptible due to preexisting illness or more likely to be infected because of extended exposure to the pathogen. Even then, the pathogen might not be able to break out of its human host and transmit to another person. This is the current situation with H5N1. For the past year, there have been many animal outbreaks in a variety of wild and domestic animals, especially among birds and cattle. But there have also been a small number of human cases, most of which have occurred among poultry and dairy workers who worked closely with large numbers of infected animals.
Diagram depicting three stages, the first of bird to bird, the second bird to human and duck, and the third duck to duck and human to human
Pathogen transmission can be modeled in three stages. In Stage 1, the pathogen can be transmitted only between nonhuman animals. In stage 2, the pathogen can also be transmitted to humans, but it is not yet adapted for human-to-human transmission. In Stage 3, the pathogen is fully capable of human-to-human transmission. Ron Barrett, CC BY-SA
Epidemiologists call this situation viral chatter: when human infections occur only in small, sporadic outbreaks that appear like the chattering signals of coded radio communications – tiny bursts of unclear information that may add up to a very ominous message. In the case of viral chatter, the message would be a human pandemic. Sporadic, individual cases of H5N1 among people suggest that human-to-human transmission may likely occur at some point. But even so, no one knows how long or how many steps it would take for this to happen. Influenza viruses evolve rapidly. This is partly because two or more flu varieties can infect the same host simultaneously, allowing them to reshuffle their genetic material with one another to produce entirely new varieties.
Diagram showing a virus with genetic strands derived from two other viruses
Genetic reshuffling – aka antigenic shift – between a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza and a strain of human influenza could create a new strain that’s even more infectious among people. Eunsun Yoo/Biomolecules & Therapeutics, CC BY-NC
These reshuffling events are more likely to occur when there is a diverse range of host species. So it is particularly concerning that H5N1 is known to have infected at least 450 different animal species. It may not be long before the viral chatter gives way to larger human epidemics.

Reshaping the trajectory

The good news is that people can take basic measures to slow down the evolution of H5N1 and potentially reduce the lethality of avian influenza should it ever become a common human infection. But governments and businesses will need to act. People can start by taking better care of food animals. The total weight of the world’s poultry is greater than all wild bird species combined. So it is not surprising that the geography of most H5N1 outbreaks track more closely with large-scale housing and international transfers of live poultry than with the nesting and migration patterns of wild aquatic birds. Reducing these agricultural practices could help curb the evolution and spread of H5N1.
Back of truck filled with chickens in stacked cages
Large-scale commercial transport of domesticated animals is associated with the evolution and spread of new influenza varieties. ben/Flickr, CC BY-SA
People can also take better care of themselves. At the individual level, most people can vaccinate against the common, seasonal influenza viruses that circulate every year. At first glance this practice may not seem connected to the emergence of avian influenza. But in addition to preventing seasonal illness, vaccination against common human varieties of the virus will reduce the odds of it mixing with avian varieties and giving them the traits they need for human-to-human transmission. At the population level, societies can work together to improve nutrition and sanitation in the world’s poorest populations. History has shown that better nutrition increases overall resistance to new infections, and better sanitation reduces how much and how often people are exposed to new pathogens. And in today’s interconnected world, the disease problems of any society will eventually spread to every society. For more than 10,000 years, human behaviors have shaped the evolutionary trajectories of infectious diseases. Knowing this, people can reshape these trajectories for the better.The Conversation Ron Barrett, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester College This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Blue Origin’s New Glenn Awarded Critical National Security Space Launch Contract

Blue Origin secures a crucial NSSL contract for New Glenn, advancing its role in national security and showcasing commitment to reliable space launch capabilities in defense missions.

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New Glenn
New Glenn. Image Credit: Blue Origin

Blue Origin has once again solidified its position as a leader in the space launch industry with the recent award of a National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 contract. This significant contract will designate New Glenn as a heavy-lift provider for some of the nation’s most crucial missions. As the company expresses pride in supporting the Department of Defense and the National Reconnaissance Office, this achievement highlights a pivotal movement towards enhancing the diversity of launch providers, ultimately ensuring sustained competition for secure access to space.

In response to the announcement, Jarrett Jones, Senior Vice President of New Glenn, remarked, “It’s an honor and huge responsibility to team with the U.S. Government to launch our nation’s most important assets. Through this partnership, we’re looking forward to delivering on a number of critical national security priorities.” This sentiment underscores the serious nature of the tasks ahead, emphasizing the commitment to safeguarding national interests through reliable space capabilities.

As part of this contract, New Glenn will undertake missions that involve challenging orbits, necessitating advanced performance launch systems and comprehensive mission assurance. The inclusion of the Space Systems Command (SSC) certification further validates New Glenn’s capacity to meet the rigorous demands of national security missions. The payloads delivered under this contract will be instrumental in promoting the United States’ strategic advantage in space.

Remarkably, this contract represents the third national security launch-related award Blue Origin has secured within the past year. Following a contract win in June 2024 for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 missions, and an additional award in July 2024 that allows New Glenn to compete for missions in the Orbital Services Program (OSP)-4, Blue Origin is positioning itself as a steadfast player in the evolving landscape of national security space operations.

The trajectory of New Glenn’s contracts reflects the company’s growing involvement in this critical sector, as evidenced by its successful NG-1 launch, which marked its first NSSL certification flight in January. Looking ahead, expectations are set high with the upcoming NG-2 launch planned for late spring, which aims to further validate the capabilities and reliability of New Glenn.

With this latest award, Blue Origin continues to demonstrate its commitment to enhancing national security through innovative launch solutions. As we witness the expansion of opportunities in the space sector, Blue Origin remains a key partner in ensuring that the United States can effectively meet its defense and reconnaissance objectives, all while maintaining a competitive edge in the global arena.

For further details on this exciting announcement, please visit [Blue Origin’s official site](insert link here).

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to follow the journey of New Glenn and its integral role in national security!

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https://www.blueorigin.com/news/new-glenn-awarded-critical-national-security-space-launch-contract

The science section of our news blog STM Daily News provides readers with captivating and up-to-date information on the latest scientific discoveries, breakthroughs, and innovations across various fields. We offer engaging and accessible content, ensuring that readers with different levels of scientific knowledge can stay informed. Whether it’s exploring advancements in medicine, astronomy, technology, or environmental sciences, our science section strives to shed light on the intriguing world of scientific exploration and its profound impact on our daily lives. From thought-provoking articles to informative interviews with experts in the field, STM Daily News Science offers a harmonious blend of factual reporting, analysis, and exploration, making it a go-to source for science enthusiasts and curious minds. https://stmdailynews.com/category/science/


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The Inspiring Legacy of Raymond E. Fowler: A Journey into the Unknown

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Raymond E. Fowler
3 of Raymond E. Fowler’s Books. Image Credit: Rod Washington

When it comes to delving into the enigmatic world of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), few figures shine as brightly as Raymond E. Fowler. Born on November 11, 1933, in Salem, Massachusetts, Fowler has made an indelible mark on UFO research and literature, serving as an inspiration for countless enthusiasts—including myself—to explore the mysteries of our universe.

Raymond E. Fowler. A Pioneer in UFO Research

Fowler’s research is particularly notable in the New England area, where he meticulously investigated numerous UFO sightings and close encounters. His dedication to this often-overlooked field has resulted in a wealth of information, uncovering stories that might have otherwise remained hidden. Among his many contributions, Fowler is perhaps best known for two landmark cases: the Betty Andreasson Luca Alien Abduction and the Allagash Abductions.

His book, The Andreasson Affair (1979), analyzed Betty Andreasson’s alleged encounters with extraterrestrial beings, captivating the public’s imagination and igniting meaningful discussions on the topic of alien abduction. Similarly, The Allagash Abductions (1993) investigated an alleged multiple-person abduction case, even amid controversy surrounding one of the witnesses’ credibility decades later. Fowler’s approach—rooted in rigorous research and empathetic storytelling—served as a beacon for those curious about the unknown.

An Educator, Investigator, and Advocate

Not only did Fowler write extensively about UFOs, but he also held significant roles in organizations dedicated to investigating aerial phenomena. As the Director of Scientific Investigations for MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) and a Scientific Associate at the Center for UFO Studies, he played a pivotal role in shaping a rigorous approach to UFO investigations. Additionally, as a past chairman of NICAP (National Investigations Committee on Aerial Phenomena), Fowler’s influential work contributed to the growing legitimacy of UFO research within the scientific community.

A Personal Connection to the Phenomena

What makes Fowler’s journey particularly compelling is his own experience as an alleged abductee. In UFO Testament: Anatomy of an Abductee (2002), Fowler shares his personal encounters with the unknown, sparking a sense of connection with readers who may have had similar experiences or feelings of fear and wonder. This transparency about his own abductions has not only inspired empathy but has also encouraged a more profound understanding of the abduction phenomenon, resonating with the testimonies of others, such as those of Betty and Barney Hill.

Despite facing skepticism and criticism—especially from family members who held different beliefs—Fowler remained steadfast in his pursuit of truth. His journey reminds us that curiosity, courage, and a willingness to question the impossible can push us toward greater understanding.

A Lasting Influence

Raymond E. Fowler’s extensive body of work not only laid the groundwork for future investigations but also inspired a generation of UFO researchers and writers. His books, such as Casebook of a UFO Investigator (1981) and UFOs: Interplanetary Visitors (1974)—the latter being my first introduction to the subject—sparked my passion for exploring the unknown. Fowler’s ability to weave personal narrative with scientific inquiry instills hope for a comprehensive understanding of UFOs.

As we continue to navigate the ever-expanding universe of UFO phenomena, we can draw strength and knowledge from the extraordinary contributions of Raymond E. Fowler. His legacy encourages us to embrace our curiosity, challenge the boundaries of understanding, and always remain open to the possibilities of the cosmos above. So, whether you’re a seasoned researcher or just beginning to explore the topic, remember that the journey into the unknown is as profound as the destination itself.

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Resource:

https://www.nicap.org/ray.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raymond_E._Fowler

STM Daily News is a multifaceted podcast that explores a wide range of topics, from life and consumer issues to the latest in food and beverage trends. Our discussions dive into the realms of science, covering everything from space and Earth to nature, artificial intelligence, and astronomy. We also celebrate the amateur sports scene, highlighting local athletes and events, including our special segment on senior Pickleball, where we report on the latest happenings in this exciting community. With our diverse content, STM Daily News aims to inform, entertain, and engage listeners, providing a comprehensive look at the issues that matter most in our daily lives. https://stories-this-moment.castos.com/


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