Fed rate cut is attempt to prevent recession without sending prices soaring
Ryan Herzog, Gonzaga University The Federal Reserve on Sept. 17, 2025, cut its target interest rate as it shifts focus from fighting inflation to supporting the choppy labor market. As financial markets expected, the Fed lowered rates a quarter point to a range of 4% to 4.25%, its first cut since December 2024. The Fed’s decision to begin cutting rates comes as evidence mounts that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum. The headline unemployment rate has stayed steady at near record lows, but the underlying trends are more concerning. At the same time, the fight against inflation is not over yet. While a cooling jobs market could lead to a recession, cutting rates too much could drive inflation higher. So if you’re the Fed, what do you do? I’m an economist who tracks labor market data and monetary policy, examining how changes in hiring, wages and unemployment influence the Federal Reserve’s efforts to steer the economy. There’s an incredibly large amount of data the Fed, investors, economists like me and many others use to understand the state of the economy – and much of it often tells conflicting stories. Here are some the data points I’ve been following most closely to better understand where the U.S. economy might go from here – and the tough choices the Fed has to make.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after the rate-cut decision.AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
Underlying trouble in the labor market
The labor market looks stable on the surface, but more granular data tells a different story. The unemployment rate has remained close to historic lows at 4.3% as of August 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the number of long-term unemployed – people out of work for 27 weeks or longer – rose to 1.9 million in August, up 385,000 from a year earlier. These workers now make up 25.7% of all unemployed people, the highest share since February 2022. Persistent long-term joblessness often signals deeper cracks forming in the labor market. At the same time, new claims for unemployment benefits are spiking. Initial claims for unemployment insurance – a leading indicator of labor market stress – jumped by 27,000 to 263,000 for the week ending Sept. 6, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That’s the sharpest increase in months and well above economists’ forecasts. It suggests layoffs are becoming more common. We also got news that past payroll growth was overstated. In a process the Bureau of Labor Statistics undertakes annually to double-check its data, the bureau recently revised its jobs data downward from April 2024 through March 2025 by 911,000. In other words, the economy created roughly 75,000 fewer jobs per month than previously reported. This implies the labor market was weaker than it appeared all along. Finally, workers are losing confidence. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in August that the confidence of people who lost their jobs in finding another fell to its lowest level – 44.9% – since it started surveying consumers in June 2013. That’s another sign workers are feeling less secure about their prospects. Taken together, these data points paint a clear picture: The labor market is not collapsing, but it is softening. That helps explain why the Fed is beginning to cut rates now – hoping to stimulate spending – before the job market breaks more sharply.Prices of meat and other groceries have been on the rise recently.Scott Olson/Getty Images
Tariffs are complicating the inflation data
Even as the labor market softens, tariffs are pushing certain prices higher than they otherwise would be, complicating the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring inflation down. Government data shows that businesses have begun passing the costs of President Donald Trump’s new import tariffs to consumers. In August, clothing prices rose 0.5% and grocery prices rose 0.6%, with especially strong gains for tariff-sensitive items such as coffee. Lower-income households are getting hit hardest because they spend more of their budget on imported goods, which tend to be the lower-cost items most affected by tariffs. A report from the Yale Budget Lab found that core goods prices are about 1.9% above pre-2025 trends as tariffs raise costs for basic items such as appliances and electronics. Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, said recently that Trump’s tariffs have pushed inflation higher than CBO analysts had expected, even as overall economic activity has weakened since January. Typically, a slowdown in the labor market is met with slower inflation. But while the CBO now projects that the tariffs will reduce the federal budget deficit by about US$4 trillion over the next decade – roughly $3.3 trillion in new revenue and $700 billion in lower debt service costs – but it will come at the cost of near-term upward pressure on prices. This creates a difficult balancing act for the Fed: Cut rates too quickly, and tariff-driven price pressures could reignite inflation; move too slowly, and the softening labor market could tip into recession.Traders react to the Fed news.AP Photo/Richard Drew
A narrow path to a soft landing
As it resumes cutting rates, the Federal Reserve is trying to thread a narrow needle – easing policy enough to keep the labor market from cracking while not reigniting inflation, which is proving stickier in part because of tariffs. Markets are betting the Fed will keep cutting. The futures market is betting the Fed will cut rates by another half point by the end of the year. And the one-year Treasury yield has dropped about 150 basis points (1.5%) since June, signaling that investors expect a series of rate cuts through 2025 and into 2026. At its latest meeting, the Fed signaled two more rate cuts in 2025 and at least one rate cut in 2026. Such cuts would ultimately bring the federal funds rate closer to 3% and hopefully reduce 30-year mortgage rates to around 5% – from an average of 6.35% as of Sept. 11. If the labor market continues to weaken – with jobless claims climbing, payrolls revised down and more workers stuck in long-term unemployment – that expectation will likely harden into consensus. But the path is far from certain. Cutting rates too quickly could cause inflation to spike, while going too slow could lead to further deterioration in the labor market. Either outcome would jeopardize the Fed’s credibility – whether by appearing unable to control prices or by allowing unemployment to rise unnecessarily. That would undermine its ability to influence markets and enforce its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. Another tricky issue is Trump’s public campaign to push the Fed to cut rates – appearing to do his bidding could also undercut Fed credibility. For what it’s worth, the Sept. 17 rate cut appears driven less by politics than by economic data. The Fed itself was projecting a year ago that rates would be much lower today than they actually are, suggesting it’s been following the data. The economy appears to be slowing but remains resilient, which is why the Fed is likely to move gradually. The risk is that the window for a soft landing is closing. The coming months will determine whether the Fed can ease early enough to avoid recession, or whether it has already waited too long. Ryan Herzog, Associate Professor of Economics, Gonzaga University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in January: What the Latest Conference Board Data Signals
In January 2026, U.S. consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level since 2014, as the Consumer Confidence Index fell by 9.7 points to 84.5. Concerns about inflation, employment, and economic stability led to decreased optimism across all demographics and a cautious approach to major purchases, signaling potential recession ahead.
US consumers started 2026 on a noticeably more cautious note. New data from The Conference Board shows its Consumer Confidence Index® fell sharply in January, wiping out a brief December rebound and pushing overall sentiment to its weakest level in more than a decade.
Confidence drops to the lowest level since 2014
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell 9.7 points in January to 84.5 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. The organization noted that December’s figure was revised up by 5.1 points, meaning what initially looked like a decline last month was actually a small uptick—before January’s slide reasserted the broader downward trend.
The cutoff for the preliminary January results was January 16, 2026.
Both “right now” and “what’s next” got worse
The decline wasn’t isolated to one part of the survey. Both consumers’ views of current conditions and their expectations for the months ahead weakened.
Present Situation Index: down 9.9 points to 113.7
Expectations Index: down 9.5 points to 65.1
That Expectations reading matters because it’s well below 80, a level The Conference Board says “usually signals a recession ahead.”
Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, summed it up bluntly: confidence “collapsed” in January, with all five components deteriorating. The overall Index hit its lowest level since May 2014.
What consumers are worried about (and what’s showing up in write-ins)
The Conference Board said consumers’ write-in responses continued to skew pessimistic. The biggest themes weren’t hard to guess:
Prices and inflation
Oil and gas prices
Food and grocery prices
Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January. References to health/insuranceand war edged higher.
In other words: consumers aren’t just feeling uneasy—they’re pointing to specific pressure points that affect day-to-day costs and long-term stability.
Labor market perceptions softened
Consumers’ views of employment conditions weakened, with fewer respondents saying jobs are plentiful and more saying jobs are hard to get.
23.9% said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 27.5% in December
20.8% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 19.1%
That shift matters because consumer confidence often follows the labor market. When people feel less secure about job availability, they tend to pull back on big purchases and discretionary spending.
Expectations for business conditions and jobs turned more negative
Looking six months out, pessimism increased:
15.6% expected business conditions to improve (down from 18.7%)
22.9% expected business conditions to worsen (up from 21.3%)
On jobs:
13.9% expected more jobs to be available (down from 17.4%)
28.5% anticipated fewer jobs (up from 26.0%)
Income expectations cooled too:
15.7% expected incomes to increase (down from 18.8%)
12.6% expected incomes to decline (down slightly from 13.0%)
So while fewer people expected their income to fall, the bigger story is that optimism about income growth faded.
Who’s feeling it most: age, income, and politics
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence dipped across:
All age groups (though under 35 remained more confident than older consumers)
All generations (with Gen Z still the most optimistic)
All income brackets (with those earning under $15K the least optimistic)
All political affiliations (with the sharpest decline among Independents)
This broad-based decline suggests the shift isn’t confined to one demographic pocket—it’s spreading.
Big-ticket buying plans: more “maybe,” less “yes”
The survey also pointed to increased caution around major purchases.
Advertisement
Consumers saying “yes” to buying big-ticket items declined in January, while “maybe” responses rose and “no” edged higher.
Auto buying plans were flat overall, though expectations for new cars continued to falter and plans to buy used cars climbed.
Homebuying expectations continued to retreat.
Plans to purchase appliances, furniture, and TVs decreased.
Electronics purchase intentions dipped in most categories—except smartphones, which continued trending upward on a six-month moving average basis.
Services spending softened—but restaurants and travel stayed interesting
Planned spending on services over the next six months weakened in January, with fewer consumers saying “yes” and more shifting into “maybe.”
Still, a few categories stood out:
Restaurants, bars, and take-out remained the top planned services spending category and continued to rise.
Consumers also intended to spend more on hotels/motels for personal travel, airfare/trains, and motor vehicle services.
The Conference Board noted this was surprising given the plunge in vacation plans—especially for domestic travel—also recorded in the survey.
What to watch next
January’s report paints a clear picture: consumers are feeling squeezed by costs, less confident about the labor market, and more hesitant about major purchases. The Expectations Index dropping deeper below the “recession signal” threshold will likely keep economists, businesses, and policymakers watching the next few releases closely.
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month.
Source: The Conference Board, January 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey® (PRNewswire release, Jan. 27, 2026).
Allegiant and Sun Country Airlines to Combine: A Bigger, More Competitive Leisure Airline Takes Shape
Allegiant and Sun Country announced a merger that would create a larger leisure-focused airline serving 22 million customers, nearly 175 cities, and 650+ routes—plus expanded international access and loyalty benefits.
Allegiant and Sun Country Airlines are planning to merge in a deal that would create one of the most significant leisure-focused airline platforms in the United States—one built around flexible capacity, underserved markets, and price-sensitive travelers.Allegiant and Sun Country Planes (PRNewsfoto/Allegiant Travel Company)
Announced January 11, 2026, the definitive merger agreement calls for Allegiant (NASDAQ: ALGT) to acquire Sun Country (NASDAQ: SNCY) in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at an implied $18.89 per Sun Country share. If approved by regulators and shareholders, the combined company would serve roughly 22 million annual customers, fly to nearly 175 cities, operate 650+ routes, and manage a fleet of about 195 aircraft.
For travelers, the headline is simple: more leisure routes, more destination options, and a larger loyalty ecosystem. For the economy—especially in regions that rely on affordable air access—the bigger story is how consolidation among niche carriers could reshape competition, connectivity, and regional tourism.
Deal snapshot: how the merger is structured
Under the agreement, Sun Country shareholders would receive 0.1557 shares of Allegiant common stock plus $4.10 in cash for each Sun Country share. The offer represents a 19.8% premium over Sun Country’s closing price on January 9, 2026, according to the companies.
The transaction values Sun Country at approximately $1.5 billion, including $0.4 billion of net debt. After closing, Allegiant shareholders would own about 67% of the combined company, with Sun Country shareholders owning about 33% on a fully diluted basis.
The companies expect the deal to close in the second half of 2026, pending federal antitrust clearance, other regulatory approvals, and shareholder votes.
Why this combination matters in the leisure travel market
Allegiant and Sun Country are both known for leisure-first strategies, but they’ve historically approached the market from different angles:
Allegiant has built its brand around connecting small and mid-sized cities to vacation destinations—often with nonstop, limited-frequency routes designed to match demand.
Sun Country has operated more like a hybrid low-cost carrier, balancing scheduled passenger service with charter flying and a major cargo business.
In the press release, Allegiant CEO Gregory C. Anderson framed the merger as a natural fit between two “flexible” models designed to adjust quickly to demand. Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker emphasized the airline’s Minnesota roots and its diversified approach across passenger, charter, and cargo.
In a travel economy where consumer demand can swing quickly—fuel prices, inflation, seasonal travel surges, and shifting vacation trends all matter—flexibility is a competitive advantage. This merger is essentially a bet that scale plus adaptability can outperform traditional network strategies in the leisure segment.
What travelers could see: routes, destinations, and loyalty upgrades
The companies are pitching the merger as a way to expand choice without changing how customers book in the short term.
More routes and more nonstop options
The combined network would include 650+ routes, including 551 Allegiant routes and 105 Sun Country routes. The idea is that the two networks complement each other: Allegiant’s smaller-market footprint plus Sun Country’s strength in larger cities.
One specific promise: the merger would connect Minneapolis–St. Paul (MSP) more directly to Allegiant’s mid-sized markets, while also expanding service to popular vacation destinations.
Advertisement
Expanded international reach
Sun Country’s existing international network would give Allegiant customers access to 18 international destinationsacross Mexico, Central America, Canada, and the Caribbean.
For leisure travelers, that’s a meaningful shift—especially for customers in smaller cities who may currently need multiple connections (or higher fares) to reach international vacation spots.
A bigger loyalty program
The companies say the combined loyalty program would be larger and more flexible, adding Sun Country’s 2+ million members to Allegiant’s 21 million member base.
In practical terms, travelers should expect more ways to earn and redeem rewards—though the real value will depend on how the programs are integrated and what benefits survive the merger.
The economic angle: competition, regional access, and tourism dollars
This announcement lands in a broader conversation about airline consolidation and what it means for consumers and communities.
On one hand, a larger leisure-focused airline could:
Increase air service options in underserved markets
Improve seasonal connectivity to tourism hubs
Support local economies that depend on visitor spending
On the other hand, consolidation can also raise concerns about:
Reduced competition on certain routes
Pricing power in smaller markets
Fewer independent carriers fighting for leisure travelers
The companies argue the merger will create a “more competitive” leisure airline, not less. That claim will likely be tested during antitrust review—especially on routes where Allegiant and Sun Country overlap or where one carrier’s presence is a key source of low fares.
Cargo and charter: the less flashy, more stabilizing part of the deal
One of the most important (and most overlooked) parts of this merger is the emphasis on diversified operations.
Sun Country brings a major cargo business, including a multi-year agreement with Amazon Prime Air, plus charter contracts with casinos, Major League Soccer, collegiate sports teams, and the Department of Defense. Allegiant also has an existing charter business.
From an economic standpoint, these contract-driven revenue streams matter because they can:
Smooth out seasonal swings in leisure demand
Improve aircraft and crew utilization year-round
Reduce exposure to consumer travel slowdowns
If the combined company can balance leisure flying with cargo and charter commitments, it may be better positioned to maintain service levels—even when discretionary travel dips.
Financial expectations: synergies, EPS, and fleet scale
Allegiant expects the merger to generate $140 million in annual synergies by year three after closing. The deal is also expected to be accretive to earnings per share (EPS) in year one post-closing.
Advertisement
The combined airline would operate about 195 aircraft, with 30 on order and 80 additional options. The companies also highlight the benefit of operating both Airbus and Boeing aircraft, and the ability to better utilize Allegiant’s 737 MAX fleet and order book.
For investors, the message is scale plus efficiency. For travelers and local economies, the question is whether those efficiencies translate into more routes, better reliability, and sustained low fares.
What happens next: timeline and what won’t change immediately
Even if the deal closes, Allegiant says both airlines will operate separately until they receive a single operating certificate from the FAA.
That means:
No immediate changes to ticketing or schedules
No immediate changes to the Sun Country brand
Customers can continue booking and flying as they do today
The combined company would remain headquartered in Las Vegas, while maintaining a “significant presence” in Minneapolis–St. Paul.
Bottom line
If approved, the Allegiant–Sun Country merger would create a scaled leisure airline with a broader route map, expanded international access, and a loyalty program that reaches tens of millions of travelers.
For the U.S. travel economy, the deal is also a signal: the leisure segment—once treated like a niche—is becoming a battleground where scale, flexibility, and diversified revenue (cargo and charter) could define the next era of competition.
As regulators review the merger and the companies move toward a second-half 2026 closing, travelers and communities will be watching for the real-world impact: more service, more destinations, and whether “affordable leisure travel” stays affordable.
Expected synergies: $140M annually by year 3 post-close
Expected close: second half of 2026 (subject to approvals)
For readers tracking the business side: Allegiant and Sun Country scheduled an investor conference call for Monday, January 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with a webcast posted via Allegiant’s investor relations site.
Stay with STM Daily News: We’ll keep tracking this story as it develops—regulatory approvals, route updates, loyalty program changes, and what it could mean for travelers and the broader U.S. travel economy. For the latest coverage, visit https://stmdailynews.com.
Major Popeyes Franchisee Sailormen Files for Chapter 11 — What It Means for Restaurants and the Economy
Sailormen Inc., a major Popeyes franchisee operating 130+ locations in Florida and Georgia, filed for Chapter 11 on Jan. 15, 2026 amid rising costs and heavy debt. Many restaurants are expected to remain open as restructuring continues.
Sailormen Bankruptcy: What Chapter 11 Means for Popeyes Restaurants in FL and GA
A major Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen franchise operator is heading to bankruptcy court — but the headline does notmean Popeyes corporate is filing, or that every restaurant involved is about to close.
Sailormen Inc., a Miami-based Popeyes franchisee that has operated in the system since 1987, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Jan. 15, 2026. The company operates more than 130 Popeyes locations across Florida and Georgia (some industry coverage puts the count at 136), making it one of the chain’s largest franchise groups in the region.
Franchisee filing, not a Popeyes corporate bankruptcy
This case involves Sailormen (the operator) — not Popeyes corporate and not parent company Restaurant Brands International.
In a message referenced in industry reporting, Popeyes leadership said Sailormen’s filing does not reflect the overall health of the Popeyes brand, and that a large majority of Sailormen’s restaurants are expected to remain open while the company restructures.
What pushed Sailormen into Chapter 11
Court-related summaries and industry coverage point to a familiar mix of pressures hitting restaurant operators:
Inflation and higher operating costs (food, labor, and day-to-day expenses)
Higher borrowing costs as interest rates climbed
Liquidity strain, including reports of falling behind on rent and facing pressure from landlords and vendors
Legal disputes, including vendor-related claims tied to unpaid balances
The failed store sale that worsened the situation
One key detail: Sailormen reportedly tried to sell 16 Georgia restaurants to stabilize finances. That deal fell through, and the company remained responsible for lease guarantees tied to those locations — a liability that can linger even if other stores are performing.
The debt and the lender pressure
Industry reporting describes Sailormen as carrying a heavy debt load — cited at about $130 million overall.
More detailed figures cited in coverage include:
Over $112 million in unpaid principal loan balance
Over $17 million in accrued interest and fees
Reporting also points to pressure from BMO (BMO Bank), described as Sailormen’s largest lender. In December 2025, BMO reportedly sought to appoint a receiver, a move that can displace management and take control of a company’s assets. Sailormen’s Chapter 11 filing allows the company to continue operating as a debtor-in-possession while it attempts to reorganize.
Why this matters for “Food” and “Our Economy”
This isn’t just a Popeyes story — it’s a snapshot of what happens when restaurant operators face higher costs, value-conscious consumers, and more expensive debt at the same time.
Chapter 11 is designed to reorganize a business, not automatically liquidate it. For customers, the near-term impact may be limited if most locations stay open.
STM Daily News will follow this story as it develops, including any updates on store operations, restructuring plans, and potential sales of locations.
Hal Machina is a passionate writer, blogger, and self-proclaimed journalist who explores the intersection of science, tech, and futurism. Join him on a journey into innovative ideas and groundbreaking discoveries! View all postsjournalist
