The Earth
La Niña Weather Pattern to Disrupt Arizona Winter: What to Expect for 2024-2025
Arizona is expected to have a warmer, drier winter due to a developing La Niña, though uncertainty remains about precipitation levels, highlighting the complexity of weather patterns.
La Niña
As we prepare for the winter months, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2024-2025 winter season, and it looks like Arizona might be in for a significant change. According to meteorologists, the state is likely to experience a warmer and drier winter than usual due to the influence of a developing La Niña weather pattern.
Understanding La Niña
La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Typically, trade winds push warm surface waters toward Asia, but when these winds are stronger than normal, they lead to cooler ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific. This shift in ocean temperatures can have widespread effects on weather patterns across the United States.
In Arizona, La Niña usually correlates with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. This year, however, NOAA indicates that the La Niña phenomenon may be on the weaker side. While moderate to strong La Niña events are more likely to cause significant dry spells, the current weak La Niña means that the impacts may not be as pronounced.
Is Drier Always Drier?
It’s important to note that not every La Niña leads to a dry winter. According to the National Weather Service, there remains a 10% to 30% chance of experiencing wetter than normal conditions this winter. This uncertainty highlights the complexity of weather patterns and the need for ongoing monitoring and analysis.
Factors Influencing the Forecast
The official winter outlook takes into account various factors beyond La Niña, including the latest climate models and the broader context of climate change. These elements play a crucial role in shaping the weather we can expect in the coming months.
As we move closer to winter, it will be essential for residents and visitors in Arizona to stay informed about potential weather changes and be prepared for a season that might not follow the traditional patterns.
Preparing for the Winter
For those living in Arizona, it might be worth considering how a warmer, drier winter could affect your plans, from water conservation efforts to outdoor activities. Staying updated with NOAA and local weather forecasts will be crucial as we approach the winter months.
As winter approaches, it’s clear that La Niña will play a key role in shaping the weather across Arizona. While there is still some uncertainty regarding precipitation levels, one thing is for sure: it’s going to be an interesting season ahead.
Resources
- NOAA
- National Weather Service
- Climate Prediction Center
- 12 News Phoenix: https://www.12news.com/article/weather/noaa-expects-slowly-developing-la-nina-what-that-means-for-arizonas-winter/75-d82132c5-124f-4a94-92b7-b1aae5f43b0d
Stay warm and stay informed this winter!
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The Earth
5 Sustainable Agriculture Practices for Long-Term Success
Implementing sustainable practices aimed at sequestering carbon, or carbon farming, can help farmers and ranchers increase their bottom line while managing environmental impact in numerous ways, including keeping the soil covered year-round, reducing or eliminating tillage and effectively managing range and pasture lands.
Sustainable Practices
(Family Features) Implementing sustainable practices aimed at sequestering carbon, or carbon farming, can help farmers and ranchers increase their bottom line while managing environmental impact in numerous ways, including keeping the soil covered year-round, reducing or eliminating tillage, and managing range and pasture lands. Carbon farming practices help farmers and ranchers reap the proven benefits of a conservation approach. That, combined with a new revenue stream available via voluntary carbon programs, offers the potential for better outcomes.
Of the Earth’s land surface, 38% is used for agriculture. Capturing carbon in the soil is an affordable and scalable way to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere while nurturing healthy, secure and sustainable food systems. Through soil carbon sequestration, farmers and ranchers can become leaders in limiting the effects of climate change while enriching the land’s livelihood.
Implementing practices that meet operational needs, and ultimately sequester carbon to generate carbon credits, allows ranchers and farmers to create additional income, lower future management costs and improve soil health, resulting in enhanced yields, cost savings and more resilient, healthy fields and pastures.
Working closely with farmers and ranchers across the United States, Agoro Carbon Alliance helps implement sustainable practices like these, which bolster natural soil fertility and can also generate carbon credits and new revenue streams.
- No-Till and Reduced-Till Farming: Reducing or eliminating tillage minimizes disruption to the soil and reduces carbon emissions. When soil is tilled, it releases carbon stored within the ground into the atmosphere. Moving an operation to reduced till or no-till practices not only offers benefits to soil quality but can also play a role in mitigating soil erosion, as well as reducing fuel and labor costs.
- Cover Crops: Cover crops improve soil health and help keep carbon “locked in” while preventing nutrient loss and erosion in fields. Developing an effective and profitable cover crop strategy is one way farmers partner with Agoro Carbon Alliance. Backed by a team of highly trained agronomists that collaborate with producers, their team of local agronomists work one-on-one with producers to build a cover crop strategy that best suits each unique operation and keeps soil thriving year-round.
- Interseeding: A related and valuable approach to soil protection and carbon sequestration is interseeding. This occurs when a new crop is planted as a cover or companion in a field where an existing crop has reached vegetative growth. Interseeding increases the number of plants in the soil, resulting in more roots, which promote more efficient biomass and carbon sequestration.
- Rotational Grazing and Grazing Management: Controlling livestock grazing patterns can be advantageous for animal health, as well as the soil and pasture quality. Moving animals from one pasture to another on a systematic basis provides greater control over the quality of the forage, allowing plants to deepen root systems, which enhances the soil’s biomass and supports more efficient carbon sequestration. Rotational grazing also prevents the soil from becoming excessively compacted by animal movement and allows ranchers to distribute natural manure fertilization more evenly.
- Nitrogen Management: Strategically managing how and when nitrogen fertilizer is applied can both increase crop efficiency and yield potential while reducing environmental impacts associated with nitrogen fertilizers. Judicious use of nitrogen-containing fertilizers can help optimize carbon storage, boost yield potential and improve forage.
Soil conservation practices can drive productivity and add a new revenue stream for farm and ranch operations, as well as generate carbon credits. Learn more about sustainable agriculture and carbon cropping at agorocarbonalliance.com.
SOURCE:
Agoro Carbon Alliance
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News
Untreated sewage and fertilizer runoff threaten the Florida manatee’s main food source, contributing to malnutrition
Aarin-Conrad Allen, Florida International University
The gentle, slow-moving Florida manatee has no natural predators.
And yet, these charismatic mammals face numerous threats.
Manatees are struck by vessels in busy waterways across the state, and a majority bear scars from these collisions.
Harmful algal blooms – characterized by the rapid growth of algae that degrades water quality – can impair their nervous systems.
With less blubber, or fat, compared with other marine mammals like whales, dolphins, seals and sea lions, manatees are vulnerable to cold-stress syndrome during winter months.
And they can ingest or get entangled in marine debris like derelict fishing gear and drown or be crushed by floodgate and water control structures.
I am a doctoral candidate in marine biology at Florida International University’s Institute of Environment. Over the past 15 years, I have gained extensive experience working with marine mammals, particularly manatees.
Recently, my colleagues at the United States Geological Survey, Florida Department of Environmental Protection and I documented a change in the dietary pattern of manatees. We found that manatees are eating less seagrass – traditionally their primary food source – and more algae than in decades past. This change occurred along Florida’s Atlantic coast during a period of extensive seagrass decline.
We believe this represents an emerging threat to the species’ survival.
Protected species
Manatees were listed as an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. By the early 1990s, the manatee population in Florida had dwindled to less than 1,300.
Researchers believe that federal protection, along with additional state measures such as slow-speed zones and no-entry refuges, has contributed to the growth of the manatee population in Florida.
In 2017, manatees were reclassified from endangered to threatened. Surveyors counted 5,733 individual manatees during a statewide aerial survey conducted in 2019.
Florida manatees average 9-12 feet (2.7-3.7 meters) in length and typically weigh about 1,000 pounds (450 kilograms), but they can grow as large as 3,500 pounds (1,600 kilograms). As the largest fully aquatic herbivore, they consume 5% to 10% of their body weight in vegetation each day.
While manatees eat a broad diet of over 60 different plants, they most commonly feed on species of seagrass. Seagrasses are marine plants that, like land plants, have leaves, flowers, roots and seeds, and make their food through photosynthesis.
So what happens when these seagrasses are no longer available?
A changing estuary
The Indian River Lagoon is an estuary along Florida’s east coast that covers roughly 350 square miles (560 square kilometers) between the mainland and barrier islands, from Ponce Inlet to Jupiter Inlet.
It is a critical habitat for manatees, which feed on native seagrass meadows in the lagoon during their seasonal migrations.
Seagrasses are vital to the health of marine ecosystems. They are a habitat for juvenile fish and other marine organisms, provide food for aquatic herbivores, reduce carbon in the atmosphere and improve water quality. They also protect coastal habitats by stabilizing sediments and reducing wave energy that can erode shorelines and damage coastal infrastructure, especially during hurricanes.
For more than a decade, the Indian River Lagoon has experienced extensive loss of seagrass meadows, due to a series of algae blooms associated with nutrient runoff and degraded water quality from septic overflow leaching into the environment.
When untreated sewage and fertilizers flow into the estuary, they add nitrogen, phosphorus and other nutrients that drive excessive algal growth. These harmful algal blooms deplete oxygen levels and block sunlight, which seagrass needs for photosynthesis.
Between 2011 and 2019, over 50% of all seagrass in the lagoon was lost. This led to an increase in macroalgae and even led to a change in the animal communities that live in the lagoon. For example, among finfish, sheepshead populations declined, while seabream numbers increased. Invertebrate communities were also affected, with bryozoans colonizing areas previously dominated by barnacles.
Manatees along the Atlantic coast have suffered two unusual mortality events since the seagrass decline, including one that is ongoing. Researchers attribute the increase in manatee deaths to malnutrition due to a shortage of seagrasses in the Indian River Lagoon.
A shift in manatees’ diet
In our study, we examined 193 manatee stomach samples collected from carcasses recovered from the Indian River Lagoon during two time periods – one before and one after the onset of the seagrass loss in 2011.
We compared stomach sample contents from carcasses collected between 1977 and 1989 with samples collected between 2013 and 2015.
Our findings indicate that manatees consumed 45% less seagrass and 74% more algae after the seagrass decline.
Recently, in a study supported by FIU’s Center for Aquatic Chemistry and Environment, I investigated differences in the nutritional composition – like protein, fat, carbohydrate and fiber – of items identified in manatee stomach samples. My preliminary results show notable differences in the nutritional composition of seagrass and algae.
Marine mammals are particularly vulnerable to dietary shifts due to their large size and high energy demands. Such changes can worsen their physical health and increase the likelihood of starvation.
Depleted oxygen levels are having a similar impact on aquatic vegetation and seagrass meadows in other regions of Florida, like Biscayne Bay and the Caloosahatchee River and Estuary. This suggests that the ecological challenges seen in the Indian River Lagoon could become more widespread.
What is the solution?
Remediation efforts within the lagoon have incorporated the restoration of seagrass through aquaculture and replanting strategies, similar to efforts to restore coral reefs.
While the lagoon’s seagrass has recently shown signs of regrowth, the rehabilitation of the ecosystem must begin with improving and maintaining water quality.
Counties along the lagoon have enacted fertilizer bans that aim to reduce the levels of nitrogen and phosphorus in the water that drive algal blooms.
New research, however, indicates that these restrictions alone will not fix the problem, as residential septic systems are the primary source of nutrient pollution in the lagoon.
Furthermore, many of the factors contributing to harmful algal blooms are intensified by global warming and changing climate, which could accelerate the decline of seagrass in Florida and elsewhere.
Given the multiple, synergistic threats facing manatees, I believe that improving water quality, protecting their food sources, and further research – coupled with community outreach and education – are critical to ensure the long-term survival of this iconic Florida species.
Aarin-Conrad Allen, Ph.D. Candidate in Marine Sciences, Florida International University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The science section of our news blog STM Daily News provides readers with captivating and up-to-date information on the latest scientific discoveries, breakthroughs, and innovations across various fields. We offer engaging and accessible content, ensuring that readers with different levels of scientific knowledge can stay informed. Whether it’s exploring advancements in medicine, astronomy, technology, or environmental sciences, our science section strives to shed light on the intriguing world of scientific exploration and its profound impact on our daily lives. From thought-provoking articles to informative interviews with experts in the field, STM Daily News Science offers a harmonious blend of factual reporting, analysis, and exploration, making it a go-to source for science enthusiasts and curious minds alike. https://stmdailynews.com/category/science/
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Science
Saltwater flooding is a serious fire threat for EVs and other devices with lithium-ion batteries
Xinyu Huang, University of South Carolina
Flooding from hurricanes Helene and Milton inflicted billions of dollars in damage across the Southeast in September and October 2024, pushing buildings off their foundations and undercutting roads and bridges. It also caused dozens of electric vehicles and other battery-powered objects, such as scooters and golf carts, to catch fire.
According to one tally, 11 electric cars and 48 lithium-ion batteries caught fire after exposure to salty floodwater from Helene. In some cases, these fires spread to homes.
When a lithium-ion battery pack bursts into flames, it releases toxic fumes, burns violently and is extremely hard to put out. Frequently, firefighters’ only option is to let it burn out by itself.
Particularly when these batteries are soaked in saltwater, they can become “ticking time bombs,” in the words of Florida State Fire Marshall Jimmy Patronis. That’s because the fire doesn’t always occur immediately when the battery is flooded. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, about 36 EVs flooded by Hurricane Ian in Florida in 2022 caught fire, including several that were being towed after the storm on flatbed trailers.
Many consumers are unaware of this risk, and lithium-ion batteries are widely used in EVs and hybrid cars, e-bikes and scooters, electric lawnmowers and cordless power tools.
I’m a mechanical engineer and am working to help solve battery safety issues for our increasingly electrified society. Here’s what all owners should know about water and the risk of battery fires: https://www.youtube.com/embed/gWkEGEbpqFc?wmode=transparent&start=10 Emergency responders handle EVs that were immersed in saltwater during Hurricane Ian in Florida in 2022, including some that ignited.
The threat of saltwater
The trigger for lithium-ion battery fires is a process called thermal runaway – a cascading sequence of heat-releasing reactions inside the battery cell.
Under normal operating conditions, the probability of a lithium-ion cell going into thermal runaway is less than 1 in 10 million. But it increases sharply if the cell is subjected to electrical, thermal or mechanical stress, such as short-circuiting, overheating or puncture.
Saltwater is a particular problem for batteries because salt dissolved in water is conductive, which means that electric current readily flows through it. Pure water is not very conductive, but the electrical conductivity of seawater can be more than a thousand times higher than that of fresh water.
All EV battery pack enclosures use gaskets to seal off their internal space from the elements outside. Typically, they have waterproof ratings of IP66 or IP67. While these ratings are high, they do not guarantee that a battery will be watertight when it is immersed for a long period of time – say, over 30 minutes.
Battery packs also have various ports to equalize pressure inside the battery and move electrical power in and out. These can be potential pathways for water to leak into the pack enclosure. Inadequate seal ratings and manufacturing defects can also enable water to find its way into the battery pack if it is immersed.
How water leads to fire
All batteries have two terminals: One is marked positive (+), and the other is marked negative (-). When the terminals are connected to a device that uses electricity to do work, such as a light bulb, chemical reactions occur inside the battery that cause electrons to flow from the negative to the positive terminal. This creates an electric current and releases the energy stored in the battery.
Electrons flow between a battery’s terminals because the chemical reactions inside the battery create different electrical potentials between the two terminals. This difference is also known as voltage. When saltwater comes into contact with metal battery terminals with different electrical potentials, the battery can short-circuit, inducing rapid corrosion and electric arcing, and generating excessive current and heat. The more conductive the liquid is that penetrates the battery pack, the higher the shorting current and rate of corrosion.
Rapid corrosion reactions within the battery pack produce hydrogen and oxygen, corroding away materials from metallic terminals on the positive side of the battery and depositing them onto the negative side. Even after the water drains away, these deposited materials can form solid shorting bridges that remain inside the battery pack, causing a delayed thermal runaway. A fire can start days after the battery is flooded.
Even a battery pack that is fully discharged isn’t necessarily safe during flooding. A lithium-ion cell, even at 0% state of charge, still has about a three-volt potential difference between its positive and negative terminals, so some current can flow between them. For a battery string with many cells in a series – a typical configuration in electric cars – residual voltage can still be high enough to drive these reactions.
Many scientists, including me and my colleagues, are working to understand the exact sequence of events that can occur in a battery pack after it is exposed to saltwater and lead to thermal runaway. We also are looking for ways to help reduce fire risks from flooded battery packs.
These could include finding better ways to seal the battery packs; using alternative, more corrosion-resistant materials for the battery terminals; and applying waterproof coatings to exposed terminals inside the battery pack.
What EV owners should know
Electric cars are still very safe to drive and own in most circumstances. However, during extreme situations like hurricanes and flooding, it is very important to keep EV battery packs from becoming submerged in water, particularly saltwater. The same is true for other products that contain lithium-ion batteries.
For EVs, this means evacuating cars out of the affected zone or parking them on high ground before flooding occurs. Smaller objects, like e-bikes and power tools, can be moved to upper floors of buildings or stored on high shelves.
If you own an EV that has been submerged in water for hours to days, particularly in saltwater, public safety experts recommend treating it as a fire hazard and placing it on open ground away from other valuable property. Do not attempt to charge or operate it. Contact the manufacturer for an inspection to assess battery damage.
Often, a flooded electric vehicle will need to be towed away for further inspection. However, since thermal runaway can occur well after submersion, the car should not be moved until it has been professionally assessed.
Xinyu Huang, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, University of South Carolina
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The science section of our news blog STM Daily News provides readers with captivating and up-to-date information on the latest scientific discoveries, breakthroughs, and innovations across various fields. We offer engaging and accessible content, ensuring that readers with different levels of scientific knowledge can stay informed. Whether it’s exploring advancements in medicine, astronomy, technology, or environmental sciences, our science section strives to shed light on the intriguing world of scientific exploration and its profound impact on our daily lives. From thought-provoking articles to informative interviews with experts in the field, STM Daily News Science offers a harmonious blend of factual reporting, analysis, and exploration, making it a go-to source for science enthusiasts and curious minds alike. https://stmdailynews.com/category/science/
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