Economy
Trump’s ‘golden age’ economic message undercut by his desire for much lower interest rates – which typically signal a weak jobs market
Joshua Stillwagon, Babson College
President Donald Trump seems to want to have it both ways on the U.S. economy.
On the one hand, he recently said the economy is in its “golden age” and referred to the U.S. as the “hottest country anywhere in the world.”
Yet at the same time, he has outright demanded that the Federal Reserve sharply slash interest rates to fuel economic activity. And his recently handpicked governor, Stephen Miran, has led the charge in pushing for a bigger cut than preferred by his new colleagues at the Fed.
When an economy is strong, central banks typically don’t cut interest rates and may even raise them to avoid spurring inflation. And so to support his argument for large cuts, Miran has played up “downside risks” to the economy and a weakening labor market, contrasting with Trump’s talk of a “golden age.”
Trump and Miran also seem to be ignoring the problem of inflation, which the president has said “has been defeated” and Miran considers close enough to the Fed’s target of 2%. Yet, inflation remains high and has been picking back up in recent months – one of the core reasons the Fed has taken a gradual approach to lowering interest rates.
I’m a macroeconomist, which means I study big-picture factors affecting an economy, such as interest rates.
It’s well known that lower rates spur faster growth, and of course all presidents want a stronger economy on their watch. But the Fed’s job when it sets interest rates is to deal with whatever reality the data shows – and make decisions accordingly.
Is the economy hot or not?
In the simplest terms, the Fed raises interest rates when the economy is “hot,” or inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, and lowers them when there are concerns about unemployment.
At its most recent meeting, in September, the Fed lowered rates a quarter of a point, citing slowing jobs growth, and increased economic uncertainty. Trump nominee Miran was the only one of the 12 members of the Fed’s policy-setting committee to instead vote for a more aggressive half-point cut.
The only credible rationale for that large of an interest rate cut, in the face of still-high inflation, is by believing the labor market is incredibly weak. According to the Fed’s preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures index, inflation has been accelerating all summer and was 2.7% at the end of August, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
There’s no doubt jobs growth has slowed considerably in recent months, but enough to completely ignore the risk of driving inflation higher? At this point at least, the Fed doesn’t think so.
And if the economy were in fact running hot, as the president claims, the Fed would have little choice but to keep rates flat or raise them, especially given elevated inflation.
Risks of following political whims
This situation gets at the heart of why central bank independence matters.
Trump’s efforts to influence the Federal Reserve have not been subtle and break with Congress’ intention to insulate the Fed from political manipulation. Besides pressing for big rate cuts, he has tried to fire a member of the Board of Governors over questionable allegations and mused about removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The risks of following the wishes of a president in the face of what the data shows were starkly demonstrated in 2021, when Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fired the head of the country’s central bank. The central banker was pushing rates higher to tame inflation, which was at about 20%, but Erdogan demanded they be lowered. In response, Turkey’s lira plunged to record lows and inflation soared to over 70% in 2022.
Something similar could happen in the U.S. if Trump continues down the same path of meddling with the Fed. As a sign of how much Wall Street worries about this risk, a recent study estimated that if Trump followed through on his threat to fire Powell, the stock market could lose an estimated US$1 trillion as a result.
That’s because the Fed’s credibility rests on its ability to make decisions driven by economic evidence, not political expedience. That independence means policymakers must weigh data on inflation, jobs and growth rather than election cycles or partisan demands.
Justifying deeper rate cuts
Looking ahead to the Fed’s next meeting Oct. 28-29, policymakers face a delicate balancing act. With inflation still running above target and signs of slowing jobs growth, it needs to lower rates enough to prevent a downturn but not so low that inflation spirals out of control.
Traders are putting near-100% odds of two more quarter-point cuts this year, one on Oct. 29 and another in December. This would bring the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025, down from 4%-4.25% now.
Based on Miran’s own interest rate projections, he’s likely to again push for a larger cut of a half-point or more at both meetings, as he believes the Fed’s benchmark rate should be below 3% by the end of the year.
To me, as an economist, the only way a Fed acting independently could reasonably justify such a significant cut in rates in the next few months is if the unemployment rate begins rising steadily, with the economy clearly at risk of slipping into a recession.
Joshua Stillwagon, Associate Professor of Economics, Babson College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Consumer Corner
3 Practical Ways to Build Financial Confidence
Financial Confidence: Economic uncertainty, fueled by persistent inflation, stagnant wages and a cooling job market, has led many Americans to feel like they’re falling behind, even when they’re doing many of the “right” things financially. This expert guidance can help you be more intentional with the choices you make so your spending reflects your priorities.
Building Financial Confidence
(Feature Impact) Nearly everyone is carrying some level of insecurity about their financial future, even those who are trying to plan ahead. Economic uncertainty, fueled by persistent inflation, stagnant wages and a cooling job market, has led many Americans to feel like they’re falling behind, even when they’re doing many of the “right” things financially.
Though many are paying down debt, saving for retirement and building an emergency fund, they’re still asking, “Am I doing enough?” In fact, only 21% of Americans are financially prepared and assured in their ability to protect their futures, according to Mutual of Omaha’s 2026 Protection Index Survey – a proprietary research study conducted with quantilope – which shows overall financial confidence has declined.
“Many people believe they need to wait until they have more money, more certainty or the perfect plan before taking action,” said Nate Hobson, vice president of sales, Advisor Network at Mutual of Omaha. “But financial confidence is usually built through consistency rather than perfect timing. Even small steps today can make a meaningful difference over time.”
While being financially secure means different things to different people, according to the survey – such as having little or no debt (34%), owning a home (29%), maintaining emergency savings (27%), saving for retirement (26%) or having insurance coverage (26%) – building financial confidence doesn’t have to translate to cutting out everything you enjoy. Instead, this expert guidance can help you be more intentional with the choices you make so your spending reflects your priorities.
Create a Financial Cushion
Whether it’s a car repair, medical bill or temporary loss of income, unexpected expenses happen.
Having even a modest emergency fund can reduce financial stress and reliance on credit cards or loans. If saving several months of expenses feels overwhelming, start with a smaller milestone. Consistency matters more than the starting amount.
Put Good Financial Habits on Autopilot
One of the easiest ways to make progress is removing the need to make the same decision every month. Consider setting up automatic contributions to savings and retirement accounts, regular investment deposits and automatic bill payments, which can help you build financial security even during busy or uncertain times.
Taking a look at everyday spending habits can also make a difference. The survey showed small, everyday choices add up over time, such as cutting non-essential spending (57%), using rewards programs (54%), comparing prices or switching providers (39%) and following a monthly budget (38%). That could mean bringing your lunch to work instead of grabbing takeout, taking a few extra minutes to compare prices at the grocery store or using rewards to get more value from the purchases you’re already making.
Protect What You’re Building
Saving and investing are important pieces of financial protection, but they’re only part of the equation. Protecting income, loved ones and other financial assets is equally important.
For families, life insurance can provide financial protection during key earning and caregiving years, helping replace income if the unexpected happens. For those focused on covering final expenses, guaranteed whole life insurance can help cover funeral and other end-of-life costs. If you’re approaching or living in retirement, an annuity may provide a reliable stream of income that can complement other retirement resources and reduce uncertainty.
A financial professional can help determine which options best fit your goals and circumstances. To see how much coverage is right for your situation, Mutual of Omaha’s Life Insurance Calculator can provide a personalized estimate based on your income, financial obligations and long-term goals.
For more practical advice to build financial confidence, visit MutualofOmaha.com.
Taking Action with an Extra $1,000
If you unexpectedly received $1,000, your response with the extra cash may reveal your financial priorities and where additional planning could strengthen financial resilience.
Providing a window into Americans’ financial priorities, respondents in Mutual of Omaha’s 2026 Protection Index Report said they would:
- Pay down debt (25%)
- Add it to savings (21%)
- Use it for everyday expenses (14%)
- Invest it (9%)
Photos courtesy of Shutterstock
SOURCE:
💰 Live well and make your money work smarter! Explore the latest lifestyle tips, personal finance insights, saving strategies, and financial wellness stories on STM Daily News. Share your thoughts in the comments and subscribe to our newsletter for fresh ideas delivered straight to your inbox.
financial wellness
Survey: Credit isn’t a backup plan. For millions of Americans, it’s how they buy groceries.
Credit isn’t a backup plan. Credit cards were once reserved for expensive purchases or for added security in buying online. For households managing debt, they have become a way to cover everyday purchases like groceries.
Survey: Credit isn’t a backup plan. For millions of Americans, it’s how they buy groceries.
(Sheeka Sanahori) Sixty-six percent of Americans carrying at least $10,000 in unsecured debt used a credit card to buy groceries in the last year, more than any other essential expense, according to a new survey. Credit cards were once reserved for expensive purchases or for added security in buying online. For households managing debt, they have become a way to cover everyday purchases like groceries.
Accredited Debt Relief, a company specializing in debt relief, commissioned Atomik Research in May 2026 to survey 2,000 U.S. adults with at least $10,000 in unsecured debt. Along with groceries, 47% say they’ve used credit for gas or transportation, 45% for utilities and 33% for rent or housing costs.
For people struggling with cost-of-living pressures, using unsecured debt can begin as a quick solution to cover household needs for the moment. At first, it’s just milk and eggs. But then an unexpected expense happens: a flat tire, an unusually high electricity bill, a medical cost that was not in the budget. The balance adds up and, according to the survey data, this also creates stress for consumers.
This isn’t discretionary spending. The data reflects a growing reliance on consumer debt to cover basic cost-of-living needs. However, relying on borrowed money without an executable plan for repaying it could mean that one day, the runway for taking care of such expenses runs out.
A significant share of respondents report relying on credit as a routine part of managing their personal finances. This routine could become a long-term debt cycle for many households. Nearly three in ten say that they rely on credit or borrowing to get through a typical month. This reliance appears to be growing, with a third saying they depend on credit more than they did a year ago. For those consumers, what may have once been a stopgap has become an increasingly common and ongoing financial strategy.
The growing debt cycle by unsecured borrowing is taking an emotional toll on these consumers, too. A quarter of respondents are concerned about their financial future and 12% feel a stronger concern that they’re at risk of long-term financial instability.
A lack of savings makes the cycle harder to break. Only 28% of respondents say they can both cover expenses and save. When there is little room between income and expenses, every disruption becomes harder to absorb.
Unexpected expenses, such as medical bills or car repairs, lead 19% of respondents to take on additional debt every time, and 27% most of the time. These are the kinds of costs households are often told to prepare for, but preparation requires room. For many consumers, that room does not exist.
Debt builds over time when credit becomes part of monthly operations. Some of these consumers say they don’t earn enough to make meaningful changes to their current financial situation. Among those surveyed, 45% report that their income is enough to get by but not get ahead. Many report that their financial situation has caused them to put off taking a vacation or begin building savings.
When asked about the biggest barrier to reducing debt, 29% of respondents listed the same obstacle: the cost of everyday expenses. That number connects how debt builds with why it persists.
When everyday expenses become part of ongoing credit card debt, the balance can grow without notice. Even when a consumer gets their next paycheck, if it’s already accounted for, they may not be able to make much progress in paying down their debts. A few recurring costs, spread across months, can become a greater financial weight. The result is debt that builds, because it’s tied to the basic cost of living. It also can create a stressful way to live; more than three in ten people say their current debt situation has affected their mental well-being.
Without meaningful changes, whether through increased income, debt relief or other financial support, these households may continue to rely on consumer debt and unsecured credit as a daily necessity rather than a strategic financial tool or occasional supplement. The risk is that life’s most basic needs become harder to maintain in the long run.
Methodology
Accredited Debt Relief commissioned Atomik Research to conduct an online survey of 2,000 U.S. adults with at least $10,000 in unsecured debt. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted between May 11-14, 2026. Atomik Research, part of 4media group, is a creative market research agency.
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock (tap to pay)
SOURCE:
💰 Live well and make your money work smarter! Explore the latest lifestyle tips, personal finance insights, saving strategies, and financial wellness stories on STM Daily News. Share your thoughts in the comments and subscribe to our newsletter for fresh ideas delivered straight to your inbox.
Automotive
Beyond the Sticker Price: Identifying the Most Affordable New Vehicles to Insure for 2026
For most households, buying a new vehicle is one of the largest financial decisions they’ll make. The purchase price is only the beginning, however. To help consumers make more informed purchasing decisions, consider these rankings of the most affordable new 2026 model year vehicles to insure.
Beyond the Sticker Price: Identifying the Most Affordable New Vehicles to Insure for 2026
(Feature Impact)For most households, buying a new vehicle is one of the largest financial decisions they’ll make. The purchase price is only the beginning, however. Fuel, maintenance, depreciation and insurance all contribute to the total cost of ownership, making affordability a consideration that extends well beyond the showroom.
To help consumers make more informed purchasing decisions, Mercury Insurance recently released its annual rankings of the most affordable new 2026 model year vehicles to insure, identifying the top-performing SUV, truck, sedan and electric or hybrid vehicles in four of today’s most popular categories.
“Consumers naturally compare purchase price, fuel economy, safety ratings and technology features before buying a vehicle,” said Chong Gao, director of research and development for Mercury Insurance. “Insurance is one of the few ownership costs drivers can estimate before making a purchase. Factoring it into the decision gives consumers a more complete picture of what that vehicle is likely to cost over the years they own it.”
While every driver’s premium is unique, this year’s rankings also revealed a broader trend: Practical, mainstream vehicles continue to offer some of the strongest long-term insurance value.
“Vehicles designed for everyday drivers often strike the best balance between safety, repairability and replacement costs,” Gao said. “That’s reflected in this year’s rankings, where familiar models from manufacturers like Hyundai, Chevrolet, Honda, Kia and Volkswagen rose to the top. It reinforces the idea that choosing a practical vehicle can pay dividends well beyond the purchase price.”
A Cost You Can Plan For
Unlike unexpected repairs or fluctuating fuel prices, insurance is a predictable ownership expense consumers can research before purchasing a vehicle.
Comparing insurance costs alongside purchase price, fuel economy, maintenance expenses and expected repair costs can help shoppers better understand the long-term financial commitment of vehicle ownership.
Factors Influencing Insurance Costs
Insurance costs are influenced by many factors, but repair complexity, parts availability, vehicle safety systems and historical claims experience all contribute to how a vehicle is insured. While advanced safety technology can help reduce accidents, vehicles that are easier and less expensive to repair can also help improve long-term affordability. Among the considerations insurers evaluate are:
- Repair and replacement costs
- Historical claims experience
- Vehicle safety features and crash performance
- Theft frequency
- Availability and cost of replacement parts
- Vehicle performance characteristics
The Most Affordable Vehicles to Insure
This year’s rankings show practical, mainstream vehicles continue to offer some of the strongest insurance value. The top spot in both the SUV and electric and hybrid categories was claimed by Hyundai while Chevrolet led the truck category and Volkswagen topped the sedan rankings. Rounding out Mercury’s rankings were several familiar nameplates recognized for balancing insurance affordability with everyday value.
SUVs:
- Hyundai Santa Fe
- Chevrolet Blazer
- Honda Pilot
- Kia Sportage
- Honda Passport
Trucks:
- Chevrolet Colorado LT
- Chevrolet Silverado C3500
- Ford Maverick and Ranger
- Hyundai Santa Cruz SE
- Toyota Tundra CrewMax
Sedans and Coupes:
- Volkswagen Golf R
- Acura Integra
- Honda Prelude
- Kia K4
- Mazda3
Electric and Hybrids:
- Hyundai Santa Fe Hybrid
- Chevrolet Blazer EV
- Kia Sportage Hybrid
- Ford Escape Hybrid
- Honda CR-V Hybrid
“The smartest vehicle purchase isn’t always the one with the lowest sticker price,” Gao said. “It’s the one that delivers the best overall value over time. Comparing insurance before buying gives consumers another tool to make a more informed decision.”
Visit MercuryInsurance.com to see the full rankings and request a quote to get a more complete understanding of long-term ownership costs.
Photo courtesy of Hyundai America (Hyundai Santa Fe)
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock (couple using laptop)
SOURCE:
📰 Enjoying STM Daily News? Join the conversation!
💬 Leave a comment, share your thoughts, and subscribe to our newsletter for the latest stories, updates, and “News You Can Use This Moment!” delivered to your inbox.
Stay connected with STM Daily News!
